Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 559. stormpetrol:
I would watch 7.5N/36W for possible development over the next couple of days, just my take.


That area has been pretty stormy the past few days. I am also watching it in case it does something down the road. I wonder if it is a part of the ITCZ? Anyway, going to watch to see if it pulls further North as it goes west.
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585. MSAussie

Welcome aboard .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Quoting 578. moonlightcowboy:


Gro, Pat's link was in reference to AGW, not SAL.

Thanks for your post, and yes, I've read that SAL piece several times and have it bookmarked. I've done some poking around and cannot immediately/readily find a quick link for the SeaWiFS graphic that shows dust, but I admit to being a tad lazy sometimes. ;P So, if you do happen to find a direct link to SeaWiFS that immediately shows the current dust conditions depicted, please do share. :)


Get it yourself :)
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Quoting 587. aislinnpaps:


Of course! If you help! *G*

aislinnpaps, sorry to enscript you but would like to set you up in the kitchen!
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Global ACE remains below average. The Atlantic is closest to average while the West Pacific has a glaring lack in activity.



Values are from Ryan Maue.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34208
Dis be the one I use for SeaWiFS MLC



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If you are already an Authorized SeaWiFS User and you want to get data in real time from an area where there isn't a SeaWiFS HRPT station, you can request Overflight Scheduling from the Ocean Color team.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Quoting 571. CosmicEvents:
Would breakfast be included?


Of course! If you help! *G*
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3170
Quoting 579. Relix:
I know we are over the norm here, but hasn't so far been slow compared to what was expected? August seems to have similar July conditions. I am pretty sure it'll pick up after the 10 but I am surprised.


Depends on what you expected and what you think a good analog year is. One year that has been voiced by several members is 2004, and that year the first storm didn't form until July 31. We are at 4 currently.
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Hello all..

Long time lurker (been using this site and lurking for over 10 years now) Every year I say I am going to sign up and make an account and every year I chicken out. Now that its a little quiet I finally made one and I figured I would get the first post out of the way and wave the I am not a troll flag.

Lived all over the world and experienced all types of weather and have always been fascinated with it no matter what form. I have learned a lot here over the years and we have some amazing people on here that beat even some of the most seasoned mets with their reasoning and their analysis.

Found this site through the Navy Met that lived across the road from us. He directed me to NLMOC and here when we lived in Jax and have been here ever since

I have seen a lot on this site over the years, people coming and going and of course the trolls. It has also been a pleasure to watch some of the young ones grow and mature.

Anyway hello to all, thanks for the info over the years and look forward to continued learning.
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evening, wunderfriends.
I don't even see Post Tropical storm Dorian anymore.

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Quoting 571. CosmicEvents:
Would breakfast be included?


Oh if we could swing it here in NOLA, food iz the last worry.

Word.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Quoting 580. CosmicEvents:
I agree.
I'd include the unreliable.
Better mix. Cheers SP!


Cheers Cosmic! With that a sip of Coors Light is called for:)
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
304 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2013
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...


The eastern U.S. Trough will lift away to the northeast as the upper
level flow deamplifies across the southeast.
After a couple of days
of zonal flow, another trough will move into the eastern U.S.
However, this one does not look as if it will extend too far into
the southeast. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis will
remain south of the region with a trough over the Gulf Coast states.

This feature will help to maintain pops at or above climatology.
Temps will be close to normal through the period.
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Quoting 574. stormpetrol:


Funny Cosmic :) as usual ,sometime its the unreliable thats turns out to be reliable in the end, so why not throw them all in the mix and see what they come up with ;) might be surprising and more accurate, sometime you have to mix the bad with good to get the proper picture, all of one thing can be deceptive.
I agree.
I'd include the unreliable.
Better mix. Cheers SP!
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579. Relix
I know we are over the norm here, but hasn't so far been slow compared to what was expected? August seems to have similar July conditions. I am pretty sure it'll pick up after the 10 but I am surprised.
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Quoting 570. Grothar:



Here is a good one for you too.

Link


Gro, Pat's link was in reference to AGW, not SAL.

Thanks for your post, and yes, I've read that SAL piece several times and have it bookmarked. I've done some poking around and cannot immediately/readily find a quick link for the SeaWiFS graphic that shows dust, but I admit to being a tad lazy sometimes. ;P So, if you do happen to find a direct link to SeaWiFS that immediately shows the current dust conditions depicted, please do share. :)
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Quoting 575. hurricanes2018:
nice tropical wave ready to hit the water in 24 hours.


What wave?
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Quoting 569. superpete:


StormP- Not too fond of the 7.5 N degree development zone...brings back memories of our " I " named friend...lol


So true!
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Quoting 556. stormpetrol:
One paragraph always kinda ticks me off on this blog , " none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week. Just my personal dislike!


nice tropical wave ready to hit the water in 24 hours.
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Quoting 566. CosmicEvents:
Would you feel better if they included the unreliable models?


Funny Cosmic :) as usual ,sometime its the unreliable thats turns out to be reliable in the end, so why not throw them all in the mix and see what they come up with ;) might be surprising and more accurate, sometime you have to mix the bad with good to get the proper picture, all of one thing can be deceptive.
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Well it's kinda like a Hurricane.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Quoting 568. Bluestorm5:
I ignore that. ANYTHING can happen in a week without models picking it up until the last few hours before the storm develops.


I'm saying, wouldn't it be possible that the models aren't picking up on the development because they see that dry air could be persisting next week? Just a theory....
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Would breakfast be included?
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Quoting 540. moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, Pat, and now I understand why I missed it.



Here is a good one for you too.

Link
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Quoting 559. stormpetrol:
I would watch 7.5N/36W for possible development over the next couple of days, just my take.


StormP- Not too fond of the 7.5 N degree development zone...brings back memories of our " I " named friend...lol
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Quoting 556. stormpetrol:
One paragraph always kinda ticks me off on this blog , " none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week. Just my personal dislike!
I ignore that. ANYTHING can happen in a week without models picking it up until the last few hours before the storm develops.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8123
Quoting 565. Patrap:
We watch all the Basin, that's what we all do.

Its not uncommon to get a spin up in many favored locations other than the MDR from this date onward.

I certainly scan the basin at Dawn, and Dusk for the Low Sun Angle to show me definition.

That's why I show a lot of loops with them.

It's never about making a forecast here and seeing if it pans out, or "Wins".

Its about sharing ideas, links, and learning. But with a social slant as well.

We were social networking here way before everyone caught up,....Globally.


What we need iz a wunderground summit conference/convention here in NOLA...or anywhere.

Someone should table a motion.


Table or make? I'll make a motion for one in NOLA next June. That's if part if it includes helping everyone really understand what we see and are looking at when we look at images, models, etc..
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3170
Quoting 556. stormpetrol:
One paragraph always kinda ticks me off on this blog , " none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week. Just my personal dislike!
Would you feel better if they included the unreliable models?
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We watch all the Basin, that's what we all do.

Its not uncommon to get a spin up in many favored locations other than the MDR from this date onward.

I certainly scan the basin at Dawn, and Dusk for the Low Sun Angle to show me definition.

That's why I show a lot of loops with them.

It's never about making a forecast here and seeing if it pans out, or "Wins".

If one desires that, than open a Blog here and keep score throughout the years. Plenty o RAM for that.

Its about sharing ideas, links, and learning. But with a social slant as well.

We were social networking here way before everyone caught up,....Globally.


What we need iz a wunderground summit conference/convention here in NOLA...or anywhere.

Someone should table a motion.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Quoting 558. Patrap:
#556

Why?

The Models are not Gospel, Dr. Masters is jus stating the status of the Big un's ouput...5 days downstream.

Feelings are for "Love making and cattle" it's been said.

; )
At sea they are reserved for Seamen and Marines. Sheep would be too obvious.
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553-Moonlightcowboy
Thanks for (as always...) the informative post info' on the dust +!
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Quoting 561. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Several of the CMC ensembles are indicating the development of a <1004 millibar area of low pressure southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in 6 days. It was the only global model to foresee the regeneration of Dorian, so it bears watching.



GFS isn't as enthused:



Wouldn't that be Tropical Storm Erin?
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Several of the CMC ensembles are indicating the development of a <1004 millibar area of low pressure southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in 6 days. It was the only global model to foresee the regeneration of Dorian, so it bears watching.



GFS isn't as enthused:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34208
some fall weather coming to the northeast this week!
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I would watch 7.5N/36W for possible development over the next couple of days, just my take.
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#556

Why?

The Models are not Gospel, Dr. Masters is jus stating the status of the Big un's ouput...5 days downstream.

Feelings are for "Love making and cattle" it's been said.

; )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Quoting 556. stormpetrol:
One paragraph always kinda ticks me off on this blog , " none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week. Just my personal dislike!


Maybe because more dry air will continue to get blown off the African continent. Just a guess.
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One paragraph always kinda ticks me off on this blog , " none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week. Just my personal dislike!
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Think I'm going to go lay in the rack and read a bit. Maybe fall asleep. 04:30 comes early.

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Quoting 534. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Uh Oh that wouldn't be good for someone. How's the weather in Honduras, Allan?

How's the weather in NOLA, Pat?
Hot and warm like most of the time.I miss when December was cold.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4488
SAL is not simply dust. And, the CIMSS SAL graphic poorly depicts dust. SAL is more about hot, dry air from the Saharan desert than it is dust particularly. Dry, sinking air (subsidence), as we just witnessed profusely with Dorian, is considerably more detrimental to cyclogenesis and to a storm's tropical maturity than is dust. Note, too, that dust generally occurs/found in the mid-level 500mb layer which is not the primary cyclogenesis layer.

Please use EUMETSAT's dust graphic product to discern dust, or TAU's dust product (works most of the time) - both more credibly represent dust in the Atlantic basin than does CIMSS. Dust is depicted in pink in the Eumetsat graphic below.

EUMETSAT'S DUST GRAPHIIC





CIMSS does, however, have two other good graphics that better show mid and upper level water vapor saturations when discerning SAL.

MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR





UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR




IMO, this is a much better combination of graphics to discern a truer picture of dust, dry air. I very much loath that CIMSS SAL graphic.
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Quoting 548. will40:


look near top of page and find filters


Beautimous. Thanks.

And thanks to you too, Pat.
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Quoting 547. DocMurphy:
Can someone help a new guy out? Why are some comments hidden when I didn't hide them?


Reset yer filter below the Dr's. Entry,,to the right, to "Show All"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Pretty violent thunderstorm right now. Heavy downpour and massive lightnings. Might be the strongest of the year.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8123
Quoting 546. Patrap:
Don't miss working offshore at all.

Was with Chevron for a few years Mid 90's Hercules 21 outta Venice, Tiger Pass, and Fourchon Mostly.

Mid-90's.


You know our pain. All I can say is thank God for bottled water and electrolyte popsicles. I'm glad you made your escape. I'm hoping to get off rotation soon and move into the front office.
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Quoting 547. DocMurphy:
Can someone help a new guy out? Why are some comments hidden when I didn't hide them?


look near top of page and find filters
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Can someone help a new guy out? Why are some comments hidden when I didn't hide them?
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Don't miss working offshore at all.

Was with Chevron for a few years Mid 90's Hercules 21 outta Venice, Tiger Pass, and Fourchon Mostly.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133458
Send some of that cool stuff to the GOM. Heat index in the rig today topped off at 108. Zero wind.
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Quoting 543. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A majority of the United States has averaged below average temperature-wise since the start of the year. Definitely a welcome change compared to last year.

Globe still a bit warmer than the 1981–2010 average: 0.008°C


MUCH welcomed change
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A majority of the United States has averaged below average temperature-wise since the start of the year. Definitely a welcome change compared to last year.

Globe still a bit warmer than the 1981–2010 average: 0.008°C

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34208

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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