Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 691. yankees440:
Regarding season averages of storms, I'd be curious as to why total ACE per season isn't considered more important number of named storms. Many people seem to disregard seasonal ACE and put more importance on numbered of named storms per season. Am I making any sense here?


The National Hurricane Center typically puts ACE on a level that is at least as important as seasonal storm totals.

I'd say it's arguably more important.
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Last year we had 6 systems developed from 8-15-8-30 again I am not concerned about it being active right now. Two busy weeks is all it takes.

It's kind of strange, now that I think about it, but we have people in their late teens who are really too young to remember the last active season of majors in 2005. Even if we get no storms until August 20, we'll still be at average for the season. For those of you who are too young to remember or forget easily, the 2005 time line is below, courtesy of Wikipedia. We were getting storms at the rate of one and sometimes two every couple of days, and some were among the worst hurricanes we ever had. The season didn't end officially until January 6, 2006. I will take boredom for the rest of my life compared to 2005 again.

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Regarding season averages of storms, I'd be curious as to why total ACE per season isn't considered more important number of named storms. Many people seem to disregard seasonal ACE and put more importance on numbered of named storms per season. Am I making any sense here?
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Quoting 652. washingtonian115:
Must be some sort of glitch..I didn't know Dorian made a visit to Michigan..
Yeah it did, you didn't see it make the NW hook at 300 mph this afternoon? It even went right over DC too but 30 to 40 mph wind gusts only lasted for two minutes. And now it is in the Great Lakes. What a fast moving storm. Record speed for sure by a remnant tropical low. I am truly amazed:O
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If convection does not return soon, Dvorak constraints will be the only thing keeping Gil a tropical storm:

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Quoting 680. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dorian trying to fire some convection near its center which I have roughly at 76.4 W 32.0 N.

The tropical whatever-it-is has gone through enough cold water to shrivel a pupik, enough dry air to choke a camel, and enough shear to kill it(3 times:)). Why should we even be surprised that it can survive a pail of water as seen here: Link
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Quoting 683. sar2401:

Oh, just go hush now! :-)
LOL you can see it right here merging with the front now which is probably why it is getting some convection near the center. Still has a chance to make his name heard if it can manage to become an extra-tropical storm making landfall in New Foundland.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
Quoting SuperStorm093:


I thought someone said dry air wouldn't be affecting the system that much, and look at Chantal and Dorian went through dry air.

And they both croaked. The dry air, shear, trade winds, and stable air have not prevented storms from forming, but they have prevent storms from getting past the TS stage. These adverse conditions keeping the storms weak has been a very good thing. Dorian would have been a much different story as a hurricane off south Florida instead of a wimpy TD.
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Last year we had 6 systems developed from 8-15-8-30 again I am not concerned about it being active right now. Two busy weeks is all it takes.
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Quoting 676. Hurricanes101:
I saw CSU released their numbers

18-8-3

so much for the decrease lol
I'm still sticking to 15-8-5. 3 less tropical storms and 2 more majors than CSU. Someone is bound to be right with their predictions whether it is the experts or the bloggers I don't know.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dorian trying to fire some convection near its center which I have roughly at 76.4 W 32.0 N.


Oh, just go hush now! :-)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes and in fact holds some truth as in fact a red sky in morning would indicate an advancing rain or other weather from refraction of the morning light if occurs in evening its cause the event has already passed

It was actually first mentioned in the Bible and. as Keep wrote, it has meteorological validity. Some of those old wives weren't so dumb. :-)
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wind shear is still high in the Western Atlantic!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 54 Comments: 84909
Dorian trying to fire some convection near its center which I have roughly at 76.4 W 32.0 N.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
Quoting 676. Hurricanes101:
I saw CSU released their numbers

18-8-3

so much for the decrease lol


I still can't believe anyone actually expected a decrease.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I saw CSU released their numbers

18-8-3

so much for the decrease lol

They decreased the number of majors by 1. They'll update weekly now, and more decreases will come if we don't get something by mid-August. Given that the most of their forecast is based on climatology, the numbers start to work against the forecast after the 15th or so.
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Quoting docrod:
... going into August ... the gfs model is quiet ... too quiet.

;>)

I knew I picked the wrong week to quit drinking. :-)
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I saw CSU released their numbers

18-8-3

so much for the decrease lol
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Sometimes the best way for someone wanting to earn respect and become liked is to stay quiet, read and learn, not correct long time bloggers or to post just to be part of a conversation when they may not yet know enough to give credible information.

And with that, I am off to bed. Night all.

Good night. Looking forward to breakfast. :-)
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
rofl......this shows what's left best and seriously it will be moving off into the North Atlantic with a tailwind tomorrow more favorable that just could give it a 2% chance at least to spin up some convection before it finally, finally, dies....
.
.
.
I think.
.
.

You might even be right, but I have the feeling the guys at the NHC will just go take a coffee break if they see anything even vaguely resembling a rebirth of Dorian. :-)
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Sometimes the best way for someone wanting to earn respect and become liked is to stay quiet, read and learn, not correct long time bloggers or to post just to be part of a conversation when they may not yet know enough to give credible information.

And with that, I am off to bed. Night all.
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Quoting 652. washingtonian115:
Must be some sort of glitch..I didn't know Dorian made a visit to Michigan..

XD
So that explains all the wind...
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Quoting 668. AussieStorm:
Windsor Fire Rescue, doing rescues on the east side of Windsor today in waist deep hail.



@COLO161BOWHUNT


Is that Cantore ( ;.) ) in that image ...

looks like hail is the least of their worries Aussie?
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Quoting 669. docrod:
... going into August ... the gfs model is quiet ... too quiet.

;>)


That's typical of early August, bro
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... going into August ... the gfs model is quiet ... too quiet.

;>)
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Windsor Fire Rescue, doing rescues on the east side of Windsor today in waist deep hail.



@COLO161BOWHUNT
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Quoting 666. hurricanes2018:
maybe Erin down the road at 27 west!


Looks stretched out and elongated.
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maybe Erin down the road at 27 west!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 54 Comments: 84909
This is indeed the precarious setup.

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting AztecCe:
Look Under the NOAA logo.

Flossie's old spin!


Here it is in the WPAC far right

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Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
Quoting 646. ncstorm:
old wives tale of approaching weather:

anyone heard of this before?

Red Sky at Morning

The oldest known wives tale is: “Red sky at morning, sailors take warning; red sky at night, sailor’s delight.” This was used by men at sea to predict the weather that would help them know how rough they could expect the water, along with the weather.

yes and in fact holds some truth as in fact a red sky in morning would indicate an advancing rain or other weather from refraction of the morning light if occurs in evening its cause the event has already passed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54893
Quoting 650. SuperStorm093:


I thought someone said dry air wouldn't be affecting the system that much, and look at Chantal and Dorian went through dry air.


Well, it's likely that the NHC wants to see how much longer it can stay intact on its trek across the Atlantic before marking it as a concern area.
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Quoting 649. mitchelace5:


My guess is maybe because it's surrounded by too much dry air.


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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE
CENTER AND IN SMALL BANDS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND DATA FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER
SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW 275/8. GIL IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT
THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO THIS
MODEL MAINTAINING A STRONGER CYCLONE AND IN PART TO THE MODEL
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...CURRENTLY ABOUT 575 N MI
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GIL. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST RELIES ON THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HR. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

GIL IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
JUST TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IT SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT GIL COULD INGEST DRIER AIR. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY FORECASTING RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS...AND IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GIL COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 15.0N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.4N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 13.0N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 13.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 13.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM
GIL...APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE LOPSIDED
ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 30 AND 35
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 30 KT.

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY INDUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. PERHAPS REFLECTING THIS SHEAR FORECAST...THE BULK OF
THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 48-72H WHILE THE WATERS REMAIN WARM. GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT INEXPLICABLE STRUGGLES OF GIL IN THIS SAME AREA...I AM NOT
ABOUT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE YET...BUT
WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS
ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT
LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BEYOND 48H...AND ON THE LOW END
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9. A WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE AFTER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...WHICH CAUSES THE
TRACK GUIDANCE TO FAN OUT NOTICEABLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 12.7N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Quoting 652. washingtonian115:
Must be some sort of glitch..I didn't know Dorian made a visit to Michigan..


Looks like Hawaii and western China are getting it too...
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Quoting 652. washingtonian115:
Must be some sort of glitch..I didn't know Dorian made a visit to Michigan..
Very observant. Drawback of naming storms after people. Confused it with dorian from Michigan.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
Quoting 652. washingtonian115:
Must be some sort of glitch..I didn't know Dorian made a visit to Michigan..
Seems right. That's Dorian for you. We'll have Erin and somewhere out there Dorian will still be lurking. Must be related to Karen.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
Quoting 621. ncstorm:


there is a cell in lumberton that might make it here but I think the other cells north of us will miss Wilmington..we did so well today and had a sunny day today which is rare in my neck of the woods lately..


Looks like some storms will roll over my ex's house. Maybe some wind will knock her basketball goal over...blow her favorite chair over into the mud, if we're lucky.

Oh, excuse me. xD
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Good Night All! Have a great night.
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Must be some sort of glitch..I didn't know Dorian made a visit to Michigan..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17492
Quoting 650. SuperStorm093:


I thought someone said dry air wouldn't be affecting the system that much, and look at Chantal and Dorian went through dry air.


It probably has a vigorous moisture field protecting it.
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Quoting 649. mitchelace5:


My guess is maybe because it's surrounded by too much dry air.


I thought someone said dry air wouldn't be affecting the system that much, and look at Chantal and Dorian went through dry air.
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Quoting 647. SuperStorm093:
Im surprised there isn't an Invest yet with that one wave in the Atlantic, its more north than I thought and looks good.


My guess is maybe because it's surrounded by too much dry air.
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Quoting 635. sar2401:

Ah, OK. Figures it will rain if you go to "sunny" Florida. No rain in SE Alabama with a high of 96. No beaches but plenty of sun and heat. :-)


I live in Jacksonville, we haven't had a problem getting rain this year :p
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Im surprised there isn't an Invest yet with that one wave in the Atlantic, its more north than I thought and looks good.
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old wives tale of approaching weather:

anyone heard of this before?

Red Sky at Morning

The oldest known wives tale is: “Red sky at morning, sailors take warning; red sky at night, sailor’s delight.” This was used by men at sea to predict the weather that would help them know how rough they could expect the water, along with the weather.

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Dorian deserves a proper burial at sea.
he was a fighter..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17492
Look Under the NOAA logo.

Flossie's old spin!
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Quoting 642. mitchelace5:


Checking that chart, there's a 63.1% of a Hurricane hitting my region and a 28.1% of Major Hurricane hitting my region. Wow!
That is high.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.