Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 733. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So what happens if the pattern remains unfavorable in the Caribbean?


We either wait until a strong tropical cyclone with a mature anticyclone moves in and shunts the shear farther west, or we wait until the TUTT weakens during October and November, and potentially have the Caribbean suddenly explode. There is precedent for that as well; seasons that have seen a lack of Caribbean activity early on sometimes generate an influx of activity later, i.e. 2010.
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Quoting 739. KoritheMan:


Ones that develop farther east amidst this pattern usually do. The ones that don't will probably go onto hit the east coast, unless they can remain below 20N. If they can, then the Gulf Coast would likely be targeted in such a pattern.

That's if the pattern doesn't change, though.


Just curious, does the high ever build back its east or west side during hurricane season, or is there a dominant trough?
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Quoting 736. nigel20:

Hi Kori! How's the weather in your neck of the woods?


Fairly benign, but at least this year we're in the trough axis rather than the ridge axis. The last three summers have been oppressive.
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and storm w very knowledgeable
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Quoting 735. mitchelace5:


Is this a sign that CV systems this season will recurve?


Ones that develop farther east amidst this pattern usually do. The ones that don't will probably go onto hit the east coast, unless they can remain below 20N. If they can, then the Gulf Coast would likely be targeted in such a pattern.

That's if the pattern doesn't change, though.
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Quoting 734. sar2401:

I had just retired so, for the first time, I had no work pressures to keep me from being glued to the monitor and TWC, back in the day when TWC was called The Weather Channel, and it actually had weather on, all the time. I don't believe there were more than 350 bloggers at the time but it wasn't unusual for a blog to have 4,000 posts. Dr. Masters didn't do as many updates back then, and usually when a new storm formed or a storm got worse. This blog was a lot more of a sideshow than one of the best places to get tropical weather information, like it is today. It doesn't seem like things should be that much different eight years ago than they are today, but they really were.
i disagree it was a wealth of info. yes we had JD but at least he was entertaining.
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Quoting 692. sar2401:

It's kind of strange, now that I think about it, but we have people in their late teens who are really too young to remember the last active season of majors in 2005. Even if we get no storms until August 20, we'll still be at average for the season. For those of you who are too young to remember or forget easily, the 2005 time line is below, courtesy of Wikipedia. We were getting storms at the rate of one and sometimes two every couple of days, and some were among the worst hurricanes we ever had. The season didn't end officially until January 6, 2006. I will take boredom for the rest of my life compared to 2005 again.

yeah well they don't have your old time first hand, you where there experience of every event that happened to mankind or at least a relative who related to you what it was like.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I prefer to just roll with the punches.

I haven't been getting very many of them, though. Dorian refused to pay me a visit, so I must admit I was happy to see it die a cruel death. ;)

Hi Kori! How's the weather in your neck of the woods?
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Quoting 731. KoritheMan:


Early recurvature of systems developing in the eastern Atlantic would make sense given the pattern that's been in place.

In years like this, where a ridge dominates the western Atlantic, a trough tends to dominate the eastern portion of the Atlantic, allowing many Cape Verde systems to recurve, particularly ones forming east of 40W.

2004 saw Danielle, Karl, and Lisa recurve in this kind of pattern, and 2008 saw Bertha, Josephine, and Nana.


Is this a sign that CV systems this season will recurve?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I can't imagine the forecasting nightmare 2005 would bring me. I already have my hands full with these comparatively minor seasons!

I had just retired so, for the first time, I had no work pressures to keep me from being glued to the monitor and TWC, back in the day when TWC was called The Weather Channel, and it actually had weather on, all the time. I don't believe there were more than 350 bloggers at the time but it wasn't unusual for a blog to have 4,000 posts. Dr. Masters didn't do as many updates back then, and usually when a new storm formed or a storm got worse. This blog was a lot more of a sideshow than one of the best places to get tropical weather information, like it is today. It doesn't seem like things should be that much different eight years ago than they are today, but they really were.

Edit: I just noticed Dr Master's blog is archived back to May of 2005, so you can go through and look at how the blog responded to all those storms. There were actually many fewer posts than I remembered per blog, about 500-700 when the storms were cranking up and 1000-1500 when they were making landfall. Given the much smaller number of bloggers, those are still impressive numbers.
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Quoting 727. KoritheMan:
The GFS is getting more consistent in showing the TUTT retrograding and weakening over the next 7 - 10 days. This is before the model suffers from resolution issues, so it should at least be watched.

If that were to verify, that would be very significant, because the Caribbean has seen nothing but westerly shear blowing through it all summer.

Even if not now though, the pattern in the Caribbean will eventually change. It literally can't go all season without transitioning to its typical favorable phase.
So what happens if the pattern remains unfavorable in the Caribbean?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting 730. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I guess you just can't have it both ways. How about 115 mph. hurricane nothing more and one that hits a disparsely populated area and that I can go chase.


I prefer to just roll with the punches.

I haven't been getting very many of them, though. Dorian refused to pay me a visit, so I must admit I was happy to see it die a cruel death. ;)
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Quoting 729. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like an early recurve on this run.


Early recurvature of systems developing in the eastern Atlantic would make sense given the pattern that's been in place.

In years like this, where a ridge dominates the western Atlantic, a trough tends to dominate the eastern portion of the Atlantic, allowing many Cape Verde systems to recurve, particularly ones forming east of 40W.

2004 saw Danielle, Karl, and Lisa recurve in this kind of pattern, and 2008 saw Bertha, Josephine, and Nana.
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Quoting 728. KoritheMan:


Beating a dead horse, Caleb. :P

Maybe not with sar, but with the vast majority of people. :P
I guess you just can't have it both ways. How about 115 mph. hurricane nothing more and one that hits a disparsely populated area and that I can go chase.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting 725. ncstorm:
okay..a little something something..the Euro has also been showing this low as well coming off Africa in the same time frame..



Looks like an early recurve on this run.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting 726. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I just find it fascinating, the conditions that we witnessed from 1995-2005 featured a lot of major hurricanes hitting land areas, especially the CONUS. I understand the Saffir-Simpson Scale being somewhat overrated and not the true indicator of a storms strength, but if you look from 2006-2012 a lot less storms have made landfall with most recurving OTS. Too me we have had a lot more sickly looking storms recently that have had their struggles with fast trades, dry air, wind shear, and storms such as Emily in 2011 who had 2 centers. Also Jose with his naked swirl, Don getting poofed by the TDR. Minus Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy not much doing in the CONUS. "Note to all don't get the wrong impression that I want a major hurricane causing death and devastation, they would be interesting to chase though. It just seems the factors need to be perfect to get seasons like 2004 and 2005 again, and I feel a lot are let down because of those conditions not meeting their expectations. It will come again though, just not sure when, guess it all goes back to "patience is a virtue."


Beating a dead horse, Caleb. :P

Maybe not with sar, but with the vast majority of people. :P
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The GFS is getting more consistent in showing the TUTT retrograding and weakening over the next 7 - 10 days. This is before the model suffers from resolution issues, so it should at least be watched.

If that were to verify, that would be very significant, because the Caribbean has seen nothing but westerly shear blowing through it all summer.

Even if not now though, the pattern in the Caribbean will eventually change. It literally can't go all season without transitioning to its typical favorable phase.
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Quoting 718. sar2401:

Like I wrote, we really won't know the answer, but we will make something up, just because we can't say we don't know
I just find it fascinating, the conditions that we witnessed from 1995-2005 featured a lot of major hurricanes hitting land areas, especially the CONUS. I understand the Saffir-Simpson Scale being somewhat overrated and not the true indicator of a storms strength, but if you look from 2006-2012 a lot less storms have made landfall with most recurving OTS. Too me we have had a lot more sickly looking storms recently that have had their struggles with fast trades, dry air, wind shear, and storms such as Emily in 2011 who had 2 centers. Also Jose with his naked swirl, Don getting poofed by the TDR. Minus Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy not much doing in the CONUS. "Note to all don't get the wrong impression that I want a major hurricane causing death and devastation, they would be interesting to chase though. It just seems the factors need to be perfect to get seasons like 2004 and 2005 again, and I feel a lot are let down because of those conditions not meeting their expectations. It will come again though, just not sure when, guess it all goes back to "patience is a virtue."
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
okay..a little something something..the Euro has also been showing this low as well coming off Africa in the same time frame..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16078
Quoting KoritheMan:


I wonder how many storms developed without model support that year? Would be interesting if someone could dig that up...

I don't know the exact number but it was quite a few. It's almost like model support didn't matter. If one storm came off Africa or from the Western Caribbean, you just knew another one following the same path wasn't far behind. It was almost like each storm primed the pump for the next one.
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Quoting 721. sar2401:

Is it the left or the right ex-Dorian? What's the deal with these multiple lows right next to each other?


Probrably merging to gether to form a common low. But, c'mon, let go of Dorian already lol. he won't be back for another 6 years
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Quoting sar2401:

Hey, Nigel. Still hot and humid here, but no rain for a while. I'm starting to get nervous. :-)

Hi sar! We had very little haze in Jamaica today, maybe tomorrow will be different though. I would hope that it stay as is. :)
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
51 hrs. ex-Dorian a 1005 mb. extra-tropical system.


Is it the left or the right ex-Dorian? What's the deal with these multiple lows right next to each other?
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Quoting 713. sar2401:

It was pretty amazing but, believe me, by mid-September, the vast majority of people here who don't exist solely to see things get flattened just wanted it to stop...and it wouldn't. I turned on the computer every morning and was actually afraid to look at the NHC page to see if another storm had developed that could be headed my way.


I wonder how many storms developed without model support that year? Would be interesting if someone could dig that up...
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Hmm... dorian's ADT is still available.
2013AUG04 034500 1.8 1010.4 28.0 1.8 2.4 2.4
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Those are all indicators of an El-Nino. The AGW carries some weight in this discussion though and what CO2 levels maybe doing to retard development, hopefully more studies into this will show a correlation.

Like I wrote, we really won't know the answer, but we will make something up, just because we can't say we don't know
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Kingston Jamaica weather station
( updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 10:59 pm EST )

29°C
High: 33°C | Low: 27°C
Partly Cloudy

Sunrise: 5:44 am
Sunset: 6:38 pm
Visibility: 9.99 km
Feels like: 29°C
Humidity: 70%
Wind: 8.05 km/h
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening fellow bloggers!

Hey, Nigel. Still hot and humid here, but no rain for a while. I'm starting to get nervous. :-)
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Quoting 709. sar2401:

SAL, cooler SST's, strong trade winds, a solar max that didn't happen, AGW, HAARP, sunspots on Mars...I'm sure a few will get made up to explain it, even if we have no idea what we're taking about. :-)
Those are all indicators of an El-Nino. The AGW carries some weight in this discussion though and what CO2 levels maybe doing to retard development, hopefully more studies into this will show a correlation.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting 704. yankees440:


Can you post the link to her research please
Here you go.
The misuse and misinterpretation of the ACE and PDI indices for hurricane energetics
Link
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

I really wished I could of been forecasting for 2005, I didn't really get my start in my interest in Tropical Weather until 2007, and hearing all the stories of 2005 makes me wish I could've been apart of that 1 in 100 year or so Atlantic Hurricane Event.

It was pretty amazing but, believe me, by mid-September, the vast majority of people here who don't exist solely to see things get flattened just wanted it to stop...and it wouldn't. I turned on the computer every morning and was actually afraid to look at the NHC page to see if another storm had developed that could be headed my way.
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Quoting 707. TylerStanfield:

I really wished I could of been forecasting for 2005, I didn't really get my start in my interest in Tropical Weather until 2007, and hearing all the stories of 2005 makes me wish I could've been apart of that 1 in 100 year or so Atlantic Hurricane Event.


My interest started in 2004 (actually, it started in 2002 after Isidore passed over my area), so I was "fortunate" enough to witness that 1 in 100 year spectacle. I didn't start forecasting until 2008, though.

I definitely wouldn't want to forecast a season like that now!
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Good evening fellow bloggers!
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Quoting 700. yankees440:


Depends on how big these storms were... and how long they lasted...
Well let's just say there was favorable conditions low wind shear, absence of dry air and an SAL, warm sst, high TCHP, and we got numbers like that, then what? Would it signal the end of the multi-decadal era of increase activity that we have been seeing since 1995? And that we would be entering a quieter phase where we would need to get used to numbers like that as it would be the new norm.?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like it got squeezed in between 2 highs and stretched out from the trough. Here is a question you all can ponder suppose we get a result like 10-3-1 and it is not because a result of El-Nino, then what other weather phenomenon would have been the cause for that?

SAL, cooler SST's, strong trade winds, a solar max that didn't happen, AGW, HAARP, sunspots on Mars...I'm sure a few will get made up to explain it, even if we have no idea what we're taking about. :-)
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How many storms in a season DOESN'T mean a THING if it only take one to hit your area. For example, 1992 season. Andrew. People would say 1992 is one of the most inactive season, but South Floridians would disagree and take it to heart.
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Quoting 692. sar2401:

It's kind of strange, now that I think about it, but we have people in their late teens who are really too young to remember the last active season of majors in 2005. Even if we get no storms until August 20, we'll still be at average for the season. For those of you who are too young to remember or forget easily, the 2005 time line is below, courtesy of Wikipedia. We were getting storms at the rate of one and sometimes two every couple of days, and some were among the worst hurricanes we ever had. The season didn't end officially until January 6, 2006. I will take boredom for the rest of my life compared to 2005 again.


I really wished I could of been forecasting for 2005, I didn't really get my start in my interest in Tropical Weather until 2007, and hearing all the stories of 2005 makes me wish I could've been apart of that 1 in 100 year or so Atlantic Hurricane Event.
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51 hrs. ex-Dorian a 1005 mb. extra-tropical system.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting 701. CosmicEvents:
there's argument in the scientific community about the validity and/or flaws with ACE. Angela Fritz has written about it.


There's flaws in every methodology. I still find it more reliable.

That being said, I had no idea Angela had written about it. I now have an obligation to go and examine that!
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Quoting 701. CosmicEvents:
there's argument in the scientific community about the validity and/or flaws with ACE. Angela Fritz has written about it.


Can you post the link to her research please
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102 hours on the GFS

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16078
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is there such a thing as a Modoki La Nina?

There's such a thing as a La Nina Modaki, or at least a theory about such a thing. There's an article about it here.
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Quoting 697. KoritheMan:


To them more numbers means more landfalls, which obviously isn't always the case, but how educated in weather is the average Joe?
there's argument in the scientific community about the validity and/or flaws with ACE. Angela Fritz has written about it.
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Quoting 695. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like it got squeezed in between 2 highs and stretched out from the trough. Here is a question you all can ponder suppose we get a result like 10-3-1 and it is not because a result of El-Nino, then what other weather phenomenon would have been the cause for that?


Depends on how big these storms were... and how long they lasted...
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Quoting yankees440:
Regarding season averages of storms, I'd be curious as to why total ACE per season isn't considered more important number of named storms. Many people seem to disregard seasonal ACE and put more importance on numbered of named storms per season. Am I making any sense here?

Yes, you are, and Levi can explain it much better than me. From a scientific viewpoint, the ACE score is the most important. I think the problem is trying to explain it to the public. It also has some bias for storms that last a long time, even if they were weak the entire time. The ACE score is a relatively new concept. The number of storms, particularly hurricanes, is well understood by the public, and has been predicted and publicized for many years. Predicting ACE scores in advance is also much more difficult to do, and I don't think we have the science to do it with any accuracy. We have enough trouble just getting the numbers close to right.
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Is there such a thing as a Modoki La Nina?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting 696. yankees440:


Agreed 100%... Only problem is the public.. They only seem to put importance on whether it will be a busy season or not.


To them more numbers means more landfalls, which obviously isn't always the case, but how educated in weather is the average Joe?
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Quoting 693. KoritheMan:


The National Hurricane Center typically puts ACE on a level that is at least as important as seasonal storm totals.

I'd say it's arguably more important.


Agreed 100%... Only problem is the public.. They only seem to put importance on whether it will be a busy season or not.

We could have 50 named TS, with an ACE of less than 100% and the public would find it to be a brutal season.
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Quoting 688. CosmicEvents:
The tropical whatever-it-is has gone through enough cold water to shrivel a pupik, enough dry air to choke a camel, and enough shear to kill it(3 times:)). Why should we even be surprised that it can survive a pail of water as seen here: Link
Looks like it got squeezed in between 2 highs and stretched out from the trough. Here is a question you all can ponder suppose we get a result like 10-3-1 and it is not because a result of El-Nino, then what other weather phenomenon would have been the cause for that?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8706
Quoting 692. sar2401:

It's kind of strange, now that I think about it, but we have people in their late teens who are really too young to remember the last active season of majors in 2005. Even if we get no storms until August 20, we'll still be at average for the season. For those of you who are too young to remember or forget easily, the 2005 time line is below, courtesy of Wikipedia. We were getting storms at the rate of one and sometimes two every couple of days, and some were among the worst hurricanes we ever had. The season didn't end officially until January 6, 2006. I will take boredom for the rest of my life compared to 2005 again.



I can't imagine the forecasting nightmare 2005 would bring me. I already have my hands full with these comparatively minor seasons!
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Quoting 691. yankees440:
Regarding season averages of storms, I'd be curious as to why total ACE per season isn't considered more important number of named storms. Many people seem to disregard seasonal ACE and put more importance on numbered of named storms per season. Am I making any sense here?


The National Hurricane Center typically puts ACE on a level that is at least as important as seasonal storm totals.

I'd say it's arguably more important.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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