Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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793. vis0
Quoting 746. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey A-B High stop making that ugly face :P



i see 5 faces, ...we all live in a yellow...
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Quoting 790. KoritheMan:


I'm not good at providing statistics.

It would also depend on what you mean. You have to give me some kind of definition; some kind of standard.

What does "recurvature" mean in this instance?


Well in this case, what I meant by recurvatures, was less US landfalls this year. I might be wrong.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Sar, you see what's sitting just south of you?

Post #771

And, then that further south for most of us along the northern GoM, too.

Yeah, pretty good loop eddy, which will be a factor if we can get the winds to slow down and the shear to lighten up. The Gulf has been amazingly quiet this year. Even the crazed CMC seems to have given up in the "hurricane of the week" idea in the Gulf. Still nothing happening over by the Yucatan and even the Western Caribbean looks like a great place for stargazing tonight. I've never seen the area so devoid of convection in August, and it has to change sometime. I've been saying for quite some time that our first hurricane won't come from Africa, it will be in the Gulf.
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Quoting 770. mitchelace5:
Hey Kori, I know it might be impossible to tell now, but based on the setup now, what are the chances for recurvatures this year?


I'm not good at providing statistics.

It would also depend on what you mean. You have to give me some kind of definition; some kind of standard.

What does "recurvature" mean in this instance?
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Colorado had a great day I see:

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Quoting 787. AtHomeInTX:


Hey Allan. Doing fine. Hope you are as well. :)



Hope y'all get some rain as well. A lot of the state is still under water restrictions. Reservoirs are critically low. In a little better shape here in east Texas but creeping back into the drought. And it's starting to affect western Louisiana too.
I am doing finw thank you very much.
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Quoting 782. allancalderini:
Hi Athome how you doing ?Lol check,I hope I never work there then.


Hey Allan. Doing fine. Hope you are as well. :)

Quoting 783. nigel20:

Agreed. It has been pretty dry in Kingston as well, especially since May of this year. Kingston is also having water restrictions at the moment.


Hope y'all get some rain as well. A lot of the state is still under water restrictions. Reservoirs are critically low. In a little better shape here in east Texas but creeping back into the drought. And it's starting to affect western Louisiana too.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL


THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...

Bye Bye

&&

: )

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ARE PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting 779. allancalderini:
Walmart sounds evil.
It's neutral for me. Some positives, some negatives. Just hate that one CSM (everybody hate that lady anyway) because she worked me to death at the door keeping the place spotless today. Other door greeter said the same. It's good money, though... I don't mind working short term during winter break, but I will stay away from that place for long term job.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Nigel! No rain lately we are under the ridge of doom right now. But hopefully it won't be permanently parked this time.

Agreed. It has been pretty dry in Kingston as well, especially since May of this year. Kingston is also having water restrictions at the moment.
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Quoting 780. AtHomeInTX:


Hi Nigel! No rain lately we are under the ridge of doom right now. But hopefully it won't be permanently parked this time.
Hi Athome how you doing ?
Quoting 781. KoritheMan:


They are.
Lol check,I hope I never work there then.
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Quoting 779. allancalderini:
Walmart sounds evil.


They are.
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Quoting 775. nigel20:

Hi Athome! Are you getting rain in Texas?


Hi Nigel! No rain lately we are under the ridge of doom right now. But hopefully it won't be permanently parked this time.
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Quoting 774. AtHomeInTX:


You got it. Lol.
Walmart sounds evil.
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I still clearly remember 2005 season...
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Quoting 757. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS randomly brings a tropical cyclone off the west coast of Africa...north of the Cape Verde Islands...in 8 days.

mmm if it happens it might have the same fate as Chantal and Dorian.
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Quoting 769. KoritheMan:


I was wondering why you had changed your sleeping habits so readily. Now I know why!

That cursed Walmart! :P
Two more 8 hour shifts and I'm done with that place for few months... today was insanely busy.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ugh! I'm old and my insomnia seems to have deserted me as I try to transition back to day time hours. Hubs finally getting off the night shift. Lol. So Hey everyone. I might fall asleep any minute but thought I'd drop in for a sec. Nice to read y'all's discussion tonight. :)

Hi Athome! Are you getting rain in Texas?
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Quoting 769. KoritheMan:


I was wondering why you had changed your sleeping habits so readily. Now I know why!

That cursed Walmart! :P


You got it. Lol.
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Sar, you see what's sitting just south of you?

Post #771

And, then that further south for most of us along the northern GoM, too.
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As in a lot of deadly majors, the vast majority who die are seniors who are medically unable or isolated, without the support network to leave. In Katrina, the vast majority who died were elderly over 70. I believe that made up over 70% of the fatalities. Pretty sad. Always figured it was the poor in New Orleans, many who couldn't swim who made up a lot of the deaths. But that wasn't the case.
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Haven't posted this one in awhile.

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Hey Kori, I know it might be impossible to tell now, but based on the setup now, what are the chances for recurvatures this year?
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Quoting 763. AtHomeInTX:


Ugh! I'm old and my insomnia seems to have deserted me as I try to transition back to day time hours. Hubs finally getting off the night shift. Lol. So Hey everyone. I might fall asleep any minute but thought I'd drop in for a sec. Nice to read y'all's discussion tonight. :)


I was wondering why you had changed your sleeping habits so readily. Now I know why!

That cursed Walmart! :P
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Quoting 765. Astrometeor:


As a teenager, the only thing I remember was watching Katrina pummel NOLA and Mississippi. I was so confused by why some people didn't leave, and my mother couldn't give me an adequate answer. She told me about the poor people and such, but to an avid weather enthusiast at the age of 9 (celebrated my birthday with Katrina, lol), that didn't work for me. And it still doesn't to this day. Not sure, but that storm might've disillusioned me with hurricanes a bit. I stopped watching them until last year. Just didn't seem like fun.


Katrina hasn't dissuaded me from my pursuit of hurricanes, but it's definitely made me more sympathetic to human suffering and misfortune.

I guarantee you that even if I chased it, if we ever had another Katrina in my neck of the woods, I would do whatever I could to assist in disaster relief for the affected areas.
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No rain in sight, no tropical wave in sight, no tropical cyclone in sight! Only DUST, FISHES and SUN! NEXT NEXT NEXT!!!!
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Quoting 758. Tribucanes:
Sar, I applaud you for being a humanist and cringing to even turn on your computer when a dangerous storm might cause death and destruction. We get it. There's a reason the blog blows up when you get one of those storms. It's not because people want things to get leveled and death. The blog gets crazy active because it's exciting, news worthy, and must see. It's why people can't pull away from watching a tornado, even though it's headed right at them; the awesome power of nature is mesmerizing. People don't want a major to destroy cities and kill people, but when they happen, people can't look away. You seem to often put yourself at some moral superiority to those who look forward to the excitement and awesomeness of land-falling majors when they happen. Many, if not most come here to follow an active and exciting season; the nature of tropical weather fans. Few think, "I want one major/three canes/and seven TS." That would cause discontentment for most. There was a lot of excitement here when the aspect of a busy season was forecast, that's human nature; it doesn't make me/them sadists.


I was happy when CSU stated 2008 was a good analog for 2013, because I remember Gustav from that year.

I don't think that makes me a sadist. It makes me a human.
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Quoting 692. sar2401:

It's kind of strange, now that I think about it, but we have people in their late teens who are really too young to remember the last active season of majors in 2005. Even if we get no storms until August 20, we'll still be at average for the season. For those of you who are too young to remember or forget easily, the 2005 time line is below, courtesy of Wikipedia. We were getting storms at the rate of one and sometimes two every couple of days, and some were among the worst hurricanes we ever had. The season didn't end officially until January 6, 2006. I will take boredom for the rest of my life compared to 2005 again.



As a teenager, the only thing I remember was watching Katrina pummel NOLA and Mississippi. I was so confused by why some people didn't leave, and my mother couldn't give me an adequate answer. She told me about the poor people and such, but to an avid weather enthusiast at the age of 9 (celebrated my birthday with Katrina, lol), that didn't work for me. And it still doesn't to this day. Not sure, but that storm might've disillusioned me with hurricanes a bit. I stopped watching them until last year. Just didn't seem like fun.
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Quoting 750. KoritheMan:


I'm up at every dmax, just because I don't go to sleep.

Insomnia. I'll probably pay for it when I'm old. :P


A cure for your insomnia...Melatonin and Benedryl
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Quoting 750. KoritheMan:


I'm up at every dmax, just because I don't go to sleep.

Insomnia. I'll probably pay for it when I'm old. :P


Ugh! I'm old and my insomnia seems to have deserted me as I try to transition back to day time hours. Hubs finally getting off the night shift. Lol. So Hey everyone. I might fall asleep any minute but thought I'd drop in for a sec. Nice to read y'all's discussion tonight. :)
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.
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Quoting 759. GTstormChaserCaleb:
According to ncstorm it carries some weight as the Euro shows it too.

Yeah, the ECMWF has a broad low off the coast in 216 hours.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hi nigel. The environment looks favorable for 08E, but then again, it looked favorable for Gil to become stronger than it did and wind shear abruptly disrupted the system. It has a nice anticyclone though. I'd say the prospects of this becoming a hurricane are pretty good. Will have to watch it though. I understand why the NHC is cautious.

Yeah...thanks for your input!
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Quoting 757. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS randomly brings a tropical cyclone off the west coast of Africa...north of the Cape Verde Islands...in 8 days.

According to ncstorm it carries some weight as the Euro shows it too.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7666
Sar, I applaud you for being a humanist and cringing to even turn on your computer when a dangerous storm might cause death and destruction. We get it. There's a reason the blog blows up when you get one of those storms. It's not because people want things to get leveled and death. The blog gets crazy active because it's exciting, news worthy, and must see. It's why people can't pull away from watching a tornado, even though it's headed right at them; the awesome power of nature is mesmerizing. People don't want a major to destroy cities and kill people, but when they happen, people can't look away. You seem to often put yourself at some moral superiority to those who look forward to the excitement and awesomeness of land-falling majors when they happen. Many, if not most come here to follow an active and exciting season; the nature of tropical weather fans. Few think, "I want one major/three canes/and seven TS." That would cause discontentment for most. There was a lot of excitement here when the aspect of a busy season was forecast, that's human nature; it doesn't make me/them sadists.
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The GFS randomly brings a tropical cyclone off the west coast of Africa...north of the Cape Verde Islands...in 8 days.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm up at every dmax, just because I don't go to sleep.

Insomnia. I'll probably pay for it when I'm old. :P

Yes, you will, but youth is able to overcome many things as long as it stops when you do get older. Once you have a family and work 50 or 60 hours a week, it becomes a lot easier to sleep.
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Quoting 751. KoritheMan:


So far it's been more favorable for landfalls, hence how far west Chantal and Dorian tracked.


Is that setup still in place?
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In about 5 days we will need to shift our attention to what may be a vigorous tropical wave over Africa that may become our next named storm:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7666
Quoting 749. nigel20:

Hi Cody! I see that the NHC is reluctant to increase their intensity forecast to an hurricane. Do you think that 08E will achieve hurricane status?

Hi nigel. The environment looks favorable for 08E, but then again, it looked favorable for Gil to become stronger than it did and wind shear abruptly disrupted the system. It has a nice anticyclone though. I'd say the prospects of this becoming a hurricane are pretty good. Will have to watch it though. I understand why the NHC is cautious.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Quoting 747. mitchelace5:


Is the pattern this year more favorable for recurvatures than for westward tracks?


So far it's been more favorable for landfalls, hence how far west Chantal and Dorian tracked.
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Quoting 748. sar2401:
Pretty amazing. I've been watching the national mosaic radar and, over the past hour, convection has literally vanished from Florida and the offshore waters. Looks like the trough that carried off Dorian has now made it down the Florida Peninsula with enough drier to kill the convection. I think this is one DMax that no one will be staying up to watch. :-)


I'm up at every dmax, just because I don't go to sleep.

Insomnia. I'll probably pay for it when I'm old. :P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The LGEM and SHIPS now bring 08E (likely to be Henriette at 2 am PDT) up to hurricane intensity.


Hi Cody! I see that the NHC is reluctant to increase their intensity forecast to an hurricane. Do you think that 08E will achieve hurricane status?
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Pretty amazing. I've been watching the national mosaic radar and, over the past hour, convection has literally vanished from Florida and the offshore waters. Looks like the trough that carried off Dorian has now made it down the Florida Peninsula with enough drier air to kill the convection. I think this is one DMax that no one will be staying up to watch. :-)
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Quoting 744. KoritheMan:


The high is constantly fluctuating. Even in years like 2004 and 2005, a trough dominated the western Atlantic for weeks at a time. The high always builds back with time.

What's important is the mean position of the high, which has indeed been rather far to the west this season.


Is the pattern this year more favorable for recurvatures than for westward tracks?
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Hey A-B High stop making that ugly face :P

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7666
The LGEM and SHIPS now bring 08E (likely to be Henriette at 2 am PDT) up to hurricane intensity.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Quoting 742. mitchelace5:


Just curious, does the high ever build back its east or west side during hurricane season, or is there a dominant trough?


The high is constantly fluctuating. Even in years like 2004 and 2005, a trough dominated the western Atlantic for weeks at a time. The high always builds back with time.

What's important is the mean position of the high, which has indeed been rather far to the west this season.
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Quoting 733. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So what happens if the pattern remains unfavorable in the Caribbean?


We either wait until a strong tropical cyclone with a mature anticyclone moves in and shunts the shear farther west, or we wait until the TUTT weakens during October and November, and potentially have the Caribbean suddenly explode. There is precedent for that as well; seasons that have seen a lack of Caribbean activity early on sometimes generate an influx of activity later, i.e. 2010.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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