Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

Share this Blog
53
+

Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 843 - 793

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

843. Civicane49
9:27 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Negative PDO signature remains evident on the latest SST anomalies.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
842. Civicane49
8:51 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS KEEPING WHAT LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER...AND A 0542 UTC AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SHORT-TERM TRACK SCENARIO...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER THAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES
MORE WESTWARD AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...WHEREAS THE
GFS AND HWRF ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER AND DEEPER STORM THAT MOVES
POLEWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS AFTER 18-24 HOURS THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE
TO INTENSIFY POSSIBLY TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS
THAN 5 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES UNDER A RIDGE AXIS THAT
LIES ALONG 130W LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE 28C AND WARMER AND THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE MOIST WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 70 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
SUB-26C SSTS BY 96 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS STILL FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE
BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THAT THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST EQUATORIAL INFLOW PATTERN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 12.8N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 12.8N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 12.9N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 13.6N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.9N 134.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 16.1N 138.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 17.3N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
841. Civicane49
8:51 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

GIL HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT
SEVEN HOURS NOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS JUST CLIPPED THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WHILE IT DID NOT CAPTURE WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE...IT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT MAINLY BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DUE TO
STABLE AIR...20 KT OF SHEAR...AND BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...
GIL MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IF DEEP
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...GIL COULD BE DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SOON AS LATER TODAY.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A RELATIVELY MINOR RELOCATION WAS
REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/8 KT.
WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE
SHALLOW AND IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
ON THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVING
TO DO WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN OUTLIER...
SHOWING GIL BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS AND MOVING MUCH
MORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
NEARLY AS FAST AS THE ECMWF...BUT IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE SINCE GIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.6N 135.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.2N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.7N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 13.1N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 12.6N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 12.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 11.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 11.5N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
840. Civicane49
8:50 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 125.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
839. Civicane49
8:50 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

...GIL QUICKLY FALLING APART...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 135.2W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1750 MI...2815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
838. Gearsts
8:17 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Inactive they say...
The season a bust they say...
GFS goes crazy with lowering pressure
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1554
837. Gearsts
8:08 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 836. KoritheMan:


It doesn't really say much about the overall pattern if a hypothetical storm tracks due northward at that kind of latitude. It's actually very common for tropical cyclones to recurve almost immediately when they move north of the Cape Verde Islands.

Plenty of westward-bound storms to come. Be patient. It won't be that one though. :P

Now


aug18
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1554
836. KoritheMan
7:54 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 835. SuperStorm093:


Pretty much takes it due north from there and weakens, hopefully it doesnt do that and tracks west.


It doesn't really say much about the overall pattern if a hypothetical storm tracks due northward at that kind of latitude. It's actually very common for tropical cyclones to recurve almost immediately when they move north of the Cape Verde Islands.

Plenty of westward-bound storms to come. Be patient. It won't be that one though. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
835. SuperStorm093
7:47 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 834. hurricanes2018:
tropical storm


Pretty much takes it due north from there and weakens, hopefully it doesnt do that and tracks west.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
834. hurricanes2018
7:44 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
tropical storm
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13762
833. SuperStorm093
7:39 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 831. KoritheMan:


I don't know of any detailed model archives (talking 500 mb heights, isobars, sea level pressure... those kinds of parameters), but there is this:

Link

Just select a year/storm in the drop down menu.


thank you.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
832. Tribucanes
7:38 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Glad to have you on the night crew Kori. This temporary lull will pass soon enough, probably no more than two weeks away from things revving up, and then this slow period will be but a distant memory. Your really nice to answer all the questions we trying to learn ask. Thanks a lot.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
831. KoritheMan
7:35 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 828. SuperStorm093:
Are there any archives of model runs during Hurricane Katrina, like the GFS? Would like to see it if its possible.


I don't know of any detailed model archives (talking 500 mb heights, isobars, sea level pressure... those kinds of parameters), but there is this:

Link

Just select a year/storm in the drop down menu.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
830. mitchelace5
7:34 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 827. KoritheMan:


Very much so. Chantal and Dorian tried to get very near Florida.


Well I'm off now. Thanks for answering my questions bro. I really appreciate it!
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
829. KoritheMan
7:34 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 824. SuperStorm093:
Kori, when do you believe the GFS models/any of the models will begin to show development of a tropical system?


Like I said, they're already showing hints of lower pressure and decreasing shear. I imagine it's only a matter of time before they respond to that with an organized system.

I don't know when that will be, exactly, but... I would wager sometime in the next two weeks.

Actually, there have been hints of a tropical cyclone in the GFS over the last couple of days. It's dropped the solution for now, but for several cycles it was indicating the formation of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean beyond 10 days.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
828. SuperStorm093
7:34 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Are there any archives of model runs during Hurricane Katrina, like the GFS? Would like to see it if its possible.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
827. KoritheMan
7:33 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 825. mitchelace5:


So with that setup, I suppose Florida is still at risk this year?


Very much so. Chantal and Dorian tried to get very near Florida.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
826. Civicane49
7:31 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
SHIPS and LGEM bring 08E to hurricane status by 72 hours.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
825. mitchelace5
7:28 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 819. KoritheMan:


Based on that pattern, most likely storms forming or moving along or north of 20N and east of 70W will likely track towards the US east coast, while storms forming at or below 20N and west of 70W or east of 70W will likely track into the Gulf Coast.

I draw a map to illustrate what I think the likely storm tracks will be in 2013 if the pattern doesn't significantly change:



This may sound like a dumb question lol, but with that setup, I suppose Florida is still at risk this year?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
824. SuperStorm093
7:30 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Kori, when do you believe the GFS models/any of the models will begin to show development of a tropical system?
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
823. KoritheMan
7:30 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 818. SuperStorm093:
If the High goes eastwards, wouldn't the steering want to have re-curves and not hit the US most likely?


Depends on how far east. Also note that sometimes a portion of the ridge can weaken on the western periphery, while the more southern portion of the ridge still remains more or less intact; this is particularly true if there is a fast-moving shortwave that is more progressive than amplified.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
822. mitchelace5
7:29 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 821. KoritheMan:


It's more of a northward shift than an eastward shift from what I can tell.

Don't apologize. You won't learn if you don't ask!

Besides, it's 2:30 AM and I have nothing better to do.


Appreciate it man. Thanks
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
821. KoritheMan
7:28 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 817. mitchelace5:


Is that high also retreating back eastward?

Sorry I'm asking so many questions lol


It's more of a northward shift than an eastward shift from what I can tell.

Don't apologize. You won't learn if you don't ask!

Besides, it's 2:30 AM and I have nothing better to do.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
820. mitchelace5
7:25 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 819. KoritheMan:


Based on that pattern, most likely storms forming or moving along or north of 20N and east of 70W will likely track towards the US east coast, while storms forming at or below 20N and west of 70W or east of 70W will likely track into the Gulf Coast.

I draw a map to illustrate what I think the likely storm tracks will be in 2013 if the pattern doesn't significantly change:



Thanks bro.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
819. KoritheMan
7:27 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 815. mitchelace5:

So I guess any system that forms later this season will likely track westward or northwest?


Based on that pattern, most likely storms forming or moving along or north of 20N and east of 70W will likely track towards the US east coast, while storms forming at or below 20N and west of 70W or east of 70W will likely track into the Gulf Coast.

I draw a map to illustrate what I think the likely storm tracks will be in 2013 if the pattern doesn't significantly change:

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
818. SuperStorm093
7:26 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
If the High goes eastwards, wouldn't the steering want to have re-curves and not hit the US most likely?
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
817. mitchelace5
7:24 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 814. KoritheMan:


They'll come. There have been a lot of subtle hints in the the models the last week or so that conditions could begin to get more conducive over the next two weeks.

The GFS lowering wind shear values in the Caribbean is the most notable one, but it's also shown more areas of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic; even if none of them develop, it's likely responding to a northward retreat of the Bermuda High, and the potential for the upward MJO.


Is that high also retreating back eastward?

Sorry I'm asking so many questions lol
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
816. SuperStorm093
7:22 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
I just cant wait to track the first Hurricane, hopefully we don't have to wait to long.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
815. mitchelace5
7:20 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 813. KoritheMan:


A tropical storm. This is a very similar setup to what we had during the same period in 2008, except this time the mean trough over the United States is farther west, and so is the ridge.

2008



2013


So I guess any system that forms later this season will likely track westward or northwest?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
814. KoritheMan
7:18 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 812. SuperStorm093:
I thought we would atleast be seeing some TS/Hurricanes showing up on the models by now. That isnt good that it isnt showing anything really, besides the one GFS run tonight showing a measly 1008 or so low moving north into the Atlantic, so really nothing still.


They'll come. There have been a lot of subtle hints in the the models the last week or so that conditions could begin to get more conducive over the next two weeks.

The GFS lowering wind shear values in the Caribbean is the most notable one, but it's also shown more areas of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic; even if none of them develop, it's likely responding to a northward retreat of the Bermuda High, and the potential for the upward MJO.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
813. KoritheMan
7:17 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 809. mitchelace5:


So by "anything" slipping under the ridge, do you mean a tropical system or a trough?


A tropical storm. This is a very similar setup to what we had during the same period in 2008, except this time the mean trough over the United States is farther west, and so is the ridge.

2008



2013

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
812. SuperStorm093
7:16 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
I thought we would atleast be seeing some TS/Hurricanes showing up on the models by now. That isnt good that it isnt showing anything really, besides the one GFS run tonight showing a measly 1008 or so low moving north into the Atlantic, so really nothing still.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
811. AussieStorm
7:16 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Severe weather today in Europe....



A level 2 was issued for N Switzerland, S and E Germany, N Austria, Czechia and W Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for SE France mainly for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for part of United Kingdom for tornado chances.

Valid today until tomorrow 6am

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
810. hurricanes2018
7:15 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Gil getting hit with high wind shear to
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13762
809. mitchelace5
7:14 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 808. KoritheMan:


Yup.


So by "anything" slipping under the ridge, do you mean a tropical system or a trough?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
808. KoritheMan
7:13 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 807. mitchelace5:


Isn't that recent?


Yup.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
807. mitchelace5
7:12 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 806. KoritheMan:


My take on it is this:



From July 1 through July 31.

Recurvature of systems originating in the far eastern Atlantic, but dangerous territory for anything slipping underneath the ridge.


Isn't that recent?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
806. KoritheMan
7:11 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 796. mitchelace5:


That's exactly what I meant. Just my theory, since,northward and I think there's a bit of a weakness in the A-B high. What is your take on that?

I apologize for the confusion.


My take on it is this:



From July 1 through July 31.

Recurvature of systems originating in the far eastern Atlantic, but dangerous territory for anything slipping underneath the ridge.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
805. Civicane49
7:09 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Not a tropical storm yet.

EP, 08, 2013080406, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1252W, 30, 1008, TD
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
804. mitchelace5
7:08 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Kori, one last question before I'm off. Yes, I think we'll have more recurves this year. Just my theory, since the ITCZ is now expanding northward and I think there's a bit of a weakness in the A-B high. What is your take on that?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
803. KoritheMan
7:04 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Quoting 801. Civicane49:
Gil down to 40 knots.

EP, 07, 2013080406, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1348W, 40, 1004, TS


Gotta love Dvorak constraints.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
802. KoritheMan
7:00 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Blog update. I neglected to mention the Atlantic, because all is boring for now.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
801. Civicane49
6:53 AM GMT on August 04, 2013
Gil down to 40 knots.

EP, 07, 2013080406, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1348W, 40, 1004, TS
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
I'm off to bed. Good night all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 797. yankees440:
Was looking through my favorites. Wondering what ever happened to weather456 and 1900hurricane?


1900 is still around a good bit, but haven't seen 456.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:
Whelp, I'm out for the night. 1 AM, need to get some sleep so I don't fall asleep in church service tomorrow.

o.O


Night Astro!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Was looking through my favorites. Wondering what ever happened to weather456 and 1900hurricane?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 795. KoritheMan:


I'm not trying to be needlessly semantical and overly attentive to detail, but, just to clarify, by "less US landfalls", do you mean the proportion of recurvatures to landfalls will be greater?


That's exactly what I meant. Just my theory, since,northward and I think there's a bit of a weakness in the A-B high. What is your take on that?

I apologize for the confusion.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 792. mitchelace5:


Well in this case, what I meant by recurvatures, was less US landfalls this year. I might be wrong.


I'm not trying to be needlessly semantical and overly attentive to detail, but, just to clarify, by "less US landfalls", do you mean the proportion of recurvatures to landfalls will be greater?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
Whelp, I'm out for the night. 1 AM, need to get some sleep so I don't fall asleep in church service tomorrow.

o.O

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
793. vis0
Quoting 746. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey A-B High stop making that ugly face :P



i see 5 faces, ...we all live in a yellow...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 843 - 793

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
76 °F
Partly Cloudy