Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning WU..beautiful day here in eastern NC..I see the CMC is also seeing the strong Low coming off Africa as the 00z GFS and the 00z Euro..we got model support..yeah!!

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Quoting 858. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

7:08 am (11:08 GMT)

Taken from the new fishing catwalk for the Lantana bridge, looking north towards the Lake Worth bridge.


Dexter looks lovingly to Mr. Johnson, who is absolutely one of his favorite people in the world! Mr. & Mrs. Johnson walk through the neighborhood every morning and feed and water some of the 'cat pods', which are areas where groups of cats that have been captured, fixed and chipped (one ear clipped to show they are part of a pod), and where they can live out their lives instead of being euthanized. If Animal Control picks up one, it is scanned and returned to its appropriate pod. There are various people in the neighborhood(s) that take care of the unfortunate creatures, that other people have so callously discarded. Dexter wants to play with them, but they are decidedly not of the same opinion!

The new rain gauge collected 0.59" yesterday. 40% chance today...





Rainfall data for the year at my location can be found HERE.


Mrs. Johnson takes care of the less fortunate.
The big question is did you.catch any fish from the catwalk and if so do you feed some to the cats?
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Nice storm on this webcam... Link
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Quoting 882. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO is forecast to enter our basin over the next two weeks, and the GFS is finally showing signs of life in mid-August.


Not surprising, but definitely expected.The fact there is nothing out there really does not mean much for an active season right now. I just hope those new to watching the tropics understand that in a few weeks things will change big time.
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Good Morning All,
Just wondering has the Sequester hit TWC????
It's not working good today and can't see the Beautiful Blondes on there :O( or is it just Comcast???? LOL

I hope everyone else is having a great Day :o)


Taco :o)
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Quoting 881. SouthernIllinois:

I think you mean A-Roid.

See post 853 by eyewallblues.
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The MJO is forecast to enter our basin over the next two weeks, and the GFS is finally showing signs of life in mid-August.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34164
Best photos: mikatnight
Best avatar: TampaSpin
Best street cred: Grothar
Best numerical model:
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Quoting 853. eyewallblues:
A-Rod has just changed his outlook from 18 named systems, 8 canes, 4 majors to:

4 systems, 0 canes, o majors.

He blames the SAL, the VITO, the DOMINIC, and the LUIGI.

I tend to agree with his analysis.

What's A-Rod?
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877. VR46L
Quoting 876. MisterPerfect:


A dusty week in store for many ...
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ATCF at 12z Best Track downgrades Gil to TD.

EP, 07, 2013080412, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1354W, 30, 1007, TD
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Good morning or evening to all.
And farewell, Dorian.
As many have said before, it was a fighter. Many were suspicious about whether it would regenerate, but it did.
As we look forward to the next Atlantic tropical cyclone, we should keep in mind that nothing is over until it fully dissipates.

Hey, when's the next storm coming? Would you care to make a prediction?
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Latest sfc map -A good Sunday to all..

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Quoting 859. Chicklit:
Reading through discussion this morning. Not liking the idea that 2004 could be an analog year for 2013.
I agree..I live in central Fl and got hit by all three storms..not a fun year. NEVER want to see that again!!
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Quoting 863. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Euro continues to show the low pressure off Africa.

Looks like it'll be recurving with the fast strengthening and the latitude it came off.
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869. txjac
Mikatnight ...I want to move where you live ...it sounds just like the place I am looking for. My Peanut and Lylla could be Dexter's friends.
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 80 degrees already with an expected high of 97 and a 20% chance of rain.

Hutchinson, KS received 4.3 inches of rain in 90 minutes, that has to be a record.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to CW's: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, Low Fat Shrimp and Swiss Omelet made with egg whites, Scrambled Egg Pockets, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice Enjoy!
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Very fresh thunderstorm rain video (cover pic is a bit deceiving) from Bavaria (village is here). I would take those rains at any time now!




Deviation from normal precipitation in Germany (last two months; the blue colours to the East and South are still from those devastating flood rains in the first days of June).


Still sunny and quite hot in Mainz at my place.
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Quoting 772. Tribucanes:
As in a lot of deadly majors, the vast majority who die are seniors who are medically unable or isolated, without the support network to leave. In Katrina, the vast majority who died were elderly over 70. I believe that made up over 70% of the fatalities. Pretty sad. Always figured it was the poor in New Orleans, many who couldn't swim who made up a lot of the deaths. But that wasn't the case.


Bad decisions by nursing home management was a huge factor. Not sure where you got your numbers, but I have a report that shows 62.6% age 65 and up. Still a large percentage. Many changes in disaster planning were made as a result of investigations of multiple nursing homes, as well as a wide range of other areas. Katrina was a very costly (lives and money) education.
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00z Euro continues to show the low pressure off Africa.

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Quoting 859. Chicklit:
Reading through discussion this morning. Not liking the idea that 2004 could be an analog year for 2013.


I saw an analog of 2008 but not 2004, guess I missed that! That is not good though!
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Good Sunday to WU, the GFS and even the Euro are hinting at possible development off Africa in 8-10 days. By the end of this week we may see some activity because the wave train is a lot more active than what the models can handle. So with conditions becoming more conducive I will not be surprise if a good chunk of storms never got picked up by the models.

SAL is thinning out quite fast east of 60W.



Wind shear is still high west of 50W especially in the Caribbean thanks to the TUTT cutting off some upper lows over the NW Caribb and one North of the DR as well as some troughs over the East Coast. The TUTT should start to weaken by next week as the trough moves out



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I winder who are the hurricane targets for this year?
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Reading through discussion this morning. Not liking the idea that 2004 could be an analog year for 2013.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning!

7:08 am (11:08 GMT)

Taken from the new fishing catwalk for the Lantana bridge, looking north towards the Lake Worth bridge.


Dexter looks lovingly to Mr. Johnson, who is absolutely one of his favorite people in the world! Mr. & Mrs. Johnson walk through the neighborhood every morning and feed and water some of the 'cat pods', which are areas where groups of cats that have been captured, fixed and chipped (one ear clipped to show they are part of a pod), and where they can live out their lives instead of being euthanized. If Animal Control picks up one, it is scanned and returned to its appropriate pod. There are various people in the neighborhood(s) that take care of the unfortunate creatures, that other people have so callously discarded. Dexter wants to play with them, but they are decidedly not of the same opinion!

The new rain gauge collected 0.59" yesterday. 40% chance today...





Rainfall data for the year at my location can be found HERE.


Mrs. Johnson takes care of the less fortunate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8-E up to Tropical Storm.

EP, 08, 2013080412, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1261W, 35, 1005, TS
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Looks like one week to go till serious CV season starts.




Buckle up your seat belts.
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A-Rod has just changed his outlook from 18 named systems, 8 canes, 4 majors to:

4 systems, 0 canes, o majors.

He blames the SAL, the VITO, the DOMINIC, and the LUIGI.

I tend to agree with his analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've just watched the interview with our doc in the video he has posted in his entry above. Doing well with the media, lol.

Shark sightings on the rise along East Coast
Molly Vorwerck, USA TODAY 5:58 a.m. EDT August 4, 2013

Experts say rise in shark sightings points to an increase in human presence in the ocean, not necessarily in shark populations.
Sharks have captured the nation's imagination through an obsession mired in both awe and fear - from 1976's landmark blockbuster, Jaws, to the Syfy channel's more recent Sharknado to real-life sightings along the East Coast.

One sign of this lingering infatuation with the carnivorous creatures is Discovery Channel's annual Shark Week, which kicks off its 26th incarnation Sunday. The week-long series' main event, Sharkpocalypse, will attempt to shed light on the murky water of shark sightings and attacks, which experts say have been increasing in recent decades.

"The thesis of Sharkpocalypse is that shark populations worldwide are at an all-time low, and yet shark attacks are up," says Joe Schneier, executive producer of the segment that airs Thursday. "We tried to figure out if there was a connection."

Shark sightings are on the rise as human populations increase and move closer to habitats long occupied by sharks, says George Burgess, a Florida researcher and curator of the International Shark Attack File, an annual study that compiles statistics regarding shark-human interactions. While shark populations are dwindling worldwide, shark sightings have risen because people are spending more time in the water, he said. ...


Whole article see link above. "Sharkpocalypse", lol, really ... BBL, have a nice day.


Source. Lightning in Germany right now, but not in my area to the west :( It has been way too dry where I live.


Cloud top temperatures.
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Southern Black Forest, Germany
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Tropical wave stream comes into view from the East.


TPW shows how the Dorian circulation is taken out to sea rapidly and the wave development off Africa over the Cape Verdes. Click to enlarge.
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Some monsoonal news:

Northern India: Flash floods sweep across South Punjab
By Owais Jafr, Published: August 4, 2013
At least five people died in rain related incidents, as hill torrents swept across Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur and Jampur districts in southern Punjab.
Floods have affected an estimated 100,000 people on Punjab-Balochistan border, district officials told The Express Tribune. At least ten tourists were also reported missing in the tribal belt of Rajanpur, they said.
Crops were devastated as around 200,000 acres of farmland was inundated. Road links between towns and villages in southern Punjab, meanwhile, were severed by heavy rainfall continued throughout the day. Despite the downpour, however, residents in many areas were forced on to rooftops as flood water accumulated below.


19 killed in torrential rain, floods in Pakistan
PTI Aug 3, 2013, 01.41PM IST
ISLAMABAD: At least 19 people have been killed and 42 others injured in flash floods triggered by heavy rains in Pakistan, even as authorities warned the situation may worsen further.
Parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the tribal areas were worst affected by the torrential rains, with as many as 13 reported dead and 34 injured in separate incidents yesterday, The Express Tribune reported on Saturday.
Six deaths were reported in Punjab, the paper said. Extensive property damage was reported from the country's northern regions and residents in many areas were forced to leave their homes as rainwater inundated their homes.
More mass displacement is expected, as the water level continues to rise. Nearly 50,000 cusecs of water flowed into Warsak Dam yesterday, increasing its water level. Officials fear the flooding may reach Nowshera today.


Afghanistan: Many feared dead in flash flood
03 August 2013
Many people are feared dead and others are missing after a flash flood in a remote mountainous area of Afghanistan, officials have said.


Source
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good morning seems as if dorian is leaving alittle stink behind him over s florida
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A good Sunday morning!

China hit by unprecedented heatwave
Press TV, August 4 (with a more extensive video)

Southern China's heatwave is grinding on. The hot weather began in several eastern and southern areas in early July. Since then, nineteen provinces covering about a third of the country have endured 20 or more unbroken days of scorching heat.

43 cities and counties have seen temperatures in excess of 40 degrees Celsius. In Shanghai, the 41 degrees recorded on July 26 was the highest there for at least 140 years.

In Shanghai alone, at least ten people have died of heat stroke. The authorities there have been advising people to avoid outdoor activities whenever possible and take measures necessary to stay cool. Likewise in neighboring Zhejiang where temperatures have reached 43 degrees.

Elsewhere in Zhejiang, a week of non-stop heat caused the glass panes in road barriers to crack, and the cement surface of roads themselves to warp upwards by as much as 19 centimeters. In the village of Shitan, a car left parked under the sun spontaneously burst into flames. Electrical failure brought on by the heat is suspected to have been the cause.

This week China's meteorological administration issued its first-ever emergency level-two nationwide heat alert. High temperatures, it warned, could continue until August 8.



Shanghai cracks down on unauthorised weather forecasts as heatwave continues
August 3, South China Morning Post
China's sweltering heatwave not expected to rise above 40 degrees, despite the claims of faulty forecasts


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Good Morning..Coffee is perked enjoy..............
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08E maintaining very cold cloud tops less than -80C.

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Quoting 843. Civicane49:
Negative PDO signature remains evident on the latest SST anomalies.



It's a very weak one, though.
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Negative PDO signature remains evident on the latest SST anomalies.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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