Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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943. VR46L
Quoting 924. pcola57:


Good Morning to you as well VR.. :)
I'll trade you my hot and humid day for your wet and cool day..
Lots of weather action in the Euro today..


Could ya deal with 62 dull and breezy ... LOL

I know I couldn't deal with your weather now ... It seems to be rain and thunderstorms all the time there ..

Yeah on the continent there's a bit of action but to be honest many parts of Europe consider, a whispy nador or a thunderstorm or 90°F severe .
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Levi Cowan ‏TropicalTidbits
Models show Atlantic pressures getting well below normal after Aug 10. The tropics "on" button is about to be pushed.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, bud. We need all the prognosticating tools we can get, even calabashes! :)

True that.
And really, it's as accurate as many of the other tools....

:):))
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is link to the radar different products.

Link

Really appreciate that. Thanks.

It was previously in a format that was a real bummer.
Hardly anyone could see it.
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Quoting 938. pottery:

But right now it's looking quite 'normal' again, covered in large round calabashes.

I'll keep you informed......



Thanks, bud. We need all the prognosticating tools we can get, even calabashes! :)
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Good morning, Pottery. :)

Nothing like a first-hand account of conditions down at the gate. :) Hope you get the needed rain son, friend. Now, could you remind us all, please, of the calabash tree and how it signals a scenario for the season. Sorry, I forget. ;)


LOLOL.

I am sorry to announce that the Calabash tree has become out-of-synch this year in particular.
I'm waiting to see whether it can fix itself in the near future.

Earlier, it lost all it's leaves too early, put them back on, lost some of those...
But right now it's looking quite 'normal' again, covered in large round calabashes.

I'll keep you informed......
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Quoting 863. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Euro continues to show the low pressure off Africa.

stays weak not necessarily recuve on this.
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Quoting 934. EyEtoEyE:
. All of the above mentioned !

My forecast:
4 storms down, 10 to go, which is 6 Tropical Storms, 2 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes.
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Quoting 931. pottery:

NICE !!
I know that we set one up about a year ago, but I was not able to access it.
Can I have a link for that ? Thnaks.


Here is link to the radar different products.

Link
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Quoting 907. txjac:


Question is ...how many of what?
TS? TD? Hurricanes? Majors? Invests?

. All of the above mentioned !
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Today, in severe weather terms, a slight risk of severe weather is expected in West South Dakota, Northeast Wyoming, and in southeast Montana. Stay safe everyone.
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932. VR46L
Quoting 920. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


Thought this about SAL would be good to post once more with attention focusing towards the central Atlantic. Yeah, the season can hardly be called a bust with four named storms already. Things are only just getting started. Get your plan and seatbelts ready. :)


SAL is not simply dust. And, the CIMSS SAL graphic poorly depicts dust. SAL is more about hot, dry air from the Saharan desert than it is dust particularly. Dry, sinking air (subsidence), as we just witnessed profusely with Dorian, is considerably more detrimental to cyclogenesis and to a storm's tropical maturity than is dust. Note, too, that dust generally occurs/found in the mid-level 500mb layer which is not the primary cyclogenesis layer.

Please use EUMETSAT's dust graphic product to discern dust, or TAU's dust product (works most of the time) - both more credibly represent dust in the Atlantic basin than does CIMSS. Dust is depicted in pink in the Eumetsat graphic below.

EUMETSAT'S DUST GRAPHIIC





CIMSS does, however, have two other good graphics that better show mid and upper level water vapor saturations when discerning SAL.

MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR





UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR




IMO, this is a much better combination of graphics to discern a truer picture of dust, dry air. I very much loath that CIMSS SAL graphic.


You explained that to me a few months ago When I posted the CMISS product ... I never posted it again as it made so much sense what you explained.I thank you for sharing your knowledge and take note of all your posts as I usually learn something from them , Your explainations are without too many acronyms that lose people like me trying to expand my knowledge ..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi pottery. I don't know if you have seen your new radar so here it is. An important tool to have.


NICE !!
I know that we set one up about a year ago, but I was not able to access it.
Can I have a link for that ? Thnaks.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

This is AMAZING detailed and just great! I was not aware a mid-level Water Vapor image existed as I just always defaulted to the SHIPS mid-level RH 500-750mb levels.

I agree.
Those are images that more accurately show the situation, and I've used them for a couple years.

What I found interesting earlier this week, was the comparison between the SAL image and the Mid-Level WV image.
The SAL image showed heavy dust over the Caribbean sea, and the WV image showed quite a lot of moist air in the same area.
As a general rule, SAL = Dry Air. But there was moisture along with SAL at the same time.
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Quoting 925. pottery:
Greetings, MLC.

Heavy dust conditions yesterday and today here.
Looks to be heavier just to our North, and it should clear out in a day or two.

Some showers over the past 48 hrs, but nothing like we would normally get at this time of year.
It has been very very dry. What rain we have had is from scattered showers.
None of those ITCZ rainy days that go on and on and on......



Good morning, Pottery. :)

Nothing like a first-hand account of conditions down at the gate. :) Hope you get the needed rain soon, friend. Now, could you remind us all, please, of the calabash tree and how it signals a scenario for the season. Sorry, I forget. ;)
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Hi pottery. I don't know if you have seen your new radar so here it is. An important tool to have.

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Quoting 916. wunderweatherman123:
i want everybody to understand sometimes the GFS has a northern bias with waves off africa. they start off too far north but around august 10th, activity should pick up in a hurry


Great post the GFS has a northern biased in a lot of system but I agree we dont have to wait till the MJO comes into our basin for some development. Usually that maybe the case but Dorian and Chantal was vigorous wave that develop with a little support from the MJO and one had dry stable air and the other had fast trade winds. With the African monsoon being so active this year I wouldn't be surprise if we get a wave with a low attached to roll off Africa in favorable conditions to develop later this week. I have a feeling that the models are going to miss plenty of systems this year because of the AEW being more active than they can compute.



However, once the MJO comes back that will only make the entire tropics not just the MDR favorable for potential development. By August 15th and beyond there could be thing brewing from the Caribbean/Gulf to the MDR. With multiple system at once. As for the High will move off towards the Azores and allow trades and pressures to lower across the tropics but landfall are very much likely as the pattern favors ridging over the East Coast to reinforce the Atlantic High a season similar to 2008 is quite possible but with probably more landfalling storms like 2004.
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Quoting 911. ncstorm:
last frame for Africa for GFS

2nd low looks farther south.
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Greetings, MLC.

Heavy dust conditions yesterday and today here.
Looks to be heavier just to our North, and it should clear out in a day or two.

Some showers over the past 48 hrs, but nothing like we would normally get at this time of year.
It has been very very dry. What rain we have had is from scattered showers.
None of those ITCZ rainy days that go on and on and on......
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Quoting 914. VR46L:


Thanks PCOLA LOL

Good Morning to you !

Looks like the wet cold pattern is gonna be around for a while


Good Morning to you as well VR.. :)
I'll trade you my hot and humid day for your wet and cool day..
Lots of weather action in the Euro today..
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Quoting 913. AussieStorm:
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS BORN





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 041433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 126.5W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

Awesome! Good thing there is no threat to land.
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Quoting 916. wunderweatherman123:
i want everybody to understand sometimes the GFS has a northern bias with waves off africa. they start off too far north but around august 10th, activity should pick up in a hurry
The FIM shows it coming off at a pretty high latitude as well. Could indicate the return of an upward motion in the MJO and the ITCZ lifting north. More will follow and probably take the southern route.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


Thought this about SAL would be good to post once more with attention focusing towards the central Atlantic. Yeah, the season can hardly be called a bust with four named storms already. Things are only just getting started. Get your plan and seatbelts ready. :)


SAL is not simply dust. And, the CIMSS SAL graphic poorly depicts dust. SAL is more about hot, dry air from the Saharan desert than it is dust particularly. Dry, sinking air (subsidence), as we just witnessed profusely with Dorian, is considerably more detrimental to cyclogenesis and to a storm's tropical maturity than is dust. Note, too, that dust generally occurs/found in the mid-level 500mb layer which is not the primary cyclogenesis layer.

Please use EUMETSAT's dust graphic product to discern dust, or TAU's dust product (works most of the time) - both more credibly represent dust in the Atlantic basin than does CIMSS. Dust is depicted in pink in the Eumetsat graphic below.

EUMETSAT'S DUST GRAPHIIC





CIMSS does, however, have two other good graphics that better show mid and upper level water vapor saturations when discerning SAL.

MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR





UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR




IMO, this is a much better combination of graphics to discern a truer picture of dust, dry air. I very much loath that CIMSS SAL graphic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 916. wunderweatherman123:
i want everybody to understand sometimes the GFS has a northern bias with waves off africa. they start off too far north but around august 10th, activity should pick up in a hurry

Yep.
I think we can get erin, fernand, gabrielle, humberto, and possibly ingrid.
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Quoting 909. AussieStorm:


100 invests oh wait, I mean Tw's

LOL.

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With the rain falling at the cricket in Manchester England, I am going to bed.

Goodnight all.
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i want everybody to understand sometimes the GFS has a northern bias with waves off africa. they start off too far north but around august 10th, activity should pick up in a hurry
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 KT FROM SAB...53 KT FROM UW/CIMSS ADT...TO
55 KT FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HENRIETTE SHOULD BE TO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING COOLER WATERS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 8 KT AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE 36 HOUR
TIME PERIOD...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFS IS
ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AS IT TAKES A STRONGER
AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 12.9N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.9N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 12.9N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.3N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 131.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.7N 135.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 17.2N 142.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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914. VR46L
Quoting 889. pcola57:












Thanks PCOLA LOL

Good Morning to you !

Looks like the wet cold pattern is gonna be around for a while
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS BORN





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 041433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 126.5W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
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Quoting 891. SouthernIllinois:

Nothing wrong with a handful of Earl's this year. Bring it!!
Danielle will be a better analogue.
Quoting 887. sporteguy03:

Not surprising, but definitely expected.The fact there is nothing out there really does not mean much for an active season right now. I just hope those new to watching the tropics understand that in a few weeks things will change big time.
Every year is the same newcomers when don`t see activity in early August they think the season is a bust,but when late August and September come they see how wrong they are.
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last frame for Africa for GFS

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 906. AussieStorm:

@SEALofHonor
Happy 223rd Birthday to the US Coast Guard... Semper Paratus!!


Semper ubi sub ubi
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Quoting txjac:


Question is ...how many of what?
TS? TD? Hurricanes? Majors? Invests?



100 invests oh wait, I mean Tw's
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Gil down to TD.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

A SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF GIL. OTHERWISE...THE DEPRESSION IS
MOSTLY COMPRISED OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. SATELLTE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING...AND
SUPPORT MAKING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 30 KT. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH STABLE AIR AND SHEAR NEAR GIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT
TIME. WHILE THE LGEM/SHIPS/GFDL ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY
RESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...
THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF
GIL BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS.

THE CURRENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...250/8.
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
GIL ON THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD
FLATTEN OUT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERHAPS CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD
TURN. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GUIDANCE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AT 96 AND 120H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 138.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 12.9N 139.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 12.4N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 12.0N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 12.0N 148.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 12.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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907. txjac
Quoting 902. EyEtoEyE:
Good Day All! So from August 10 thru to the end of October , we shall be busy ? If so how many do you all think we will get ?


Question is ...how many of what?
TS? TD? Hurricanes? Majors? Invests?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

@SEALofHonor
Happy 223rd Birthday to the US Coast Guard... Semper Paratus!!
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if we only get one name storm in mid-august we need to take some numbers off this year from the names storms this year..
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Quoting 902. EyEtoEyE:
Good Day All! So from August 10 thru to the end of October , we shall be busy ? If so how many do you all think we will get ?
100 :P
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 894. hurricanes2018:
that to far north its will hit the cooler water.
Good point and SAL may also present a problem. If it develops further south it will have a better chance.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Good Day All! So from August 10 thru to the end of October , we shall be busy ? If so how many do you all think we will get ?
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Quoting 899. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The ridge looks weaker and positioned more towards the Azores, could be a sign of recurvature for the next storm.

its to far north to
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Quoting 882. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO is forecast to enter our basin over the next two weeks, and the GFS is finally showing signs of life in mid-August.

that mean tropical storm for august
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The ridge looks weaker and positioned more towards the Azores, could be a sign of recurvature for the next storm.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
this is just too funny..LOL..Dorian is the boss of the Atlantic Hurricane Season..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning WU..beautiful day here in eastern NC..I see the CMC is also seeing the strong Low coming off Africa as the 00z GFS and the 00z Euro..we got model support..yeah!!



1010mb low isn't strong. There is 10 other lows 1010mb and less on that.
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87 and headed up to 93 with 104 heat index forecast where I am in the GOM. I'm sure my guys would love a few passing thunderstorms, but it doesn't appear very likely.
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Quoting VR46L:


A dusty week in store for many ...

Big dust here today...
Not very nice. Armpit-Drool weather......
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Quoting 863. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Euro continues to show the low pressure off Africa.

that to far north its will hit the cooler water.
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Good Morning WU..beautiful day here in eastern NC..I see the CMC is also seeing the strong Low coming off Africa as the 00z GFS and the 00z Euro..we got model support..yeah!!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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