Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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993. txjac
Quoting 989. Sfloridacat5:
Just sit back and relax and get ready for the active part of the season.
It's an almost certainty that we will have a tropical system or two during the 1st or 2nd week of Sept.
I used to hate going out of town (visit family) during the first part of Sept.,because there's almost always a storm threatening the area.


I know what you mean. I leave Tuesday for a 10 day trip to Ohio. I guess its a good time to go but one always worries. I will be checking in though to make sure nothing does come up
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Quoting 983. Hurricanes305:
To add to my post #974

As pressures in the tropics lower significantly the ridge dont favor much recurvature in a very zonal pattern by August 10th.



Not seeing any deep amplifying troughs over the East coast. more like shortwaves that are mostly flat and hanging over Canada. That is not a good sign.


Agreed, with no weaknesses showing in the ridge the zonal flow that will result should keep everything moving on a W-WNW path.
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Quoting 983. Hurricanes305:
To add to my post #974

As pressures in the tropics lower significantly the ridge dont favor much recurvature in a very zonal pattern by August 10th.



Not seeing any deep amplifying troughs over the East coast. more like shortwaves that are mostly flat and hanging over Canada. That is not a good sign.


Yes unfavored for recurvatures and favoured for Carib storm this yeah this will certainly be an interesting year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 985. eyewallblues:
Can't wait until August 10. What can we do to get things going?
-All of us on East Coast turn vacuum cleaners on, and point east...to get rid of that lousy "SAL".
-Contribute enough money to pave the entire Sahara Desert.
-Demand nuclear testing in the Eastern Atlantic to warm the waters to 90 F.

Thoughts?


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just sit back and relax and get ready for the active part of the season.
It's an almost certainty that we will have a tropical system or two during the 1st or 2nd week of Sept.
I used to hate going out of town (visit family) during the first part of Sept.,because there's almost always a storm threatening the area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 979. wunderkidcayman:


It's shows neutral to La Niña

I want the winter of 09/10 that was the best fore us
That makes the 3 of us, btw I like your avatar.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9442
Quoting 969. NasBahMan:


Don't know about that, 1016 MB isobar all the way to Texas could be enough to keep any storms that do develop moving W-WNW.

Yeah that make sense
Hmm you don't post much comments do you I mean for being a member since 2001 and only having 65 comments


Quoting 974. Hurricanes305:
GFS has pressures lowering quite a bit, starting in 4 days a interesting week lies ahead.

06z GFS MSLP Anomalies
(96 hours):



(Now):



Once the MJO crawls back in 2 weeks into Altantic well below normal MLSP anomalies by August 20th although its probably well overdone it gives you and indicator that the season might be heading into overdrive by August 20th forward.





Just imagine if we end up with 16 storms by late September and more to come in October and November

Quoting 975. unknowncomic:
Majority of Atlantic waters are at or above normal temperature.



Which will increase once SAL moves out which should be soon

Quoting 977. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Going to likely be tracking multiple storms at once. Wonder if we will get something like this?



Yeah and where is 2008 one with G, H, I, and J storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 980. Orcasystems:


Hey KOG... he should ship some up to you.. I hear you guys set big time records after your little rain event in July.

We got some rain on Friday... first rain in over a month.
that right there is weird no rain for the west coast
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59629
Quoting 942. Gearsts:
Levi Cowan ‏TropicalTidbits
Models show Atlantic pressures getting well below normal after Aug 10. The tropics "on" button is about to be pushed.
Can't wait until August 10. What can we do to get things going?
-All of us on East Coast turn vacuum cleaners on, and point east...to get rid of that lousy "SAL".
-Contribute enough money to pave the entire Sahara Desert.
-Demand nuclear testing in the Eastern Atlantic to warm the waters to 90 F.

Thoughts?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 982. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we have had nothing but rain
was warm for a spell
but cool down this is week two for it may continue until mid august
then it warms back up till late october


We have had nothing but sun and very dry weather... we are just one huge bonfire waiting to happen.

This is from my backyard a few weeks ago..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To add to my post #974

As pressures in the tropics lower significantly the ridge dont favor much recurvature in a very zonal pattern by August 10th.



Not seeing any deep amplifying troughs over the East coast. more like shortwaves that are mostly flat and hanging over Canada. That is not a good sign.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 980. Orcasystems:


Hey KOG... he should ship some up to you.. I hear you guys set big time records after your little rain event in July.

We got some rain on Friday... first rain in over a month.


we have had nothing but rain
was warm for a spell
but cool down this is week two for it may continue until mid august
then it warms back up till late october
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59629
Quoting 958. washingtonian115:
As far as I'm concern Summer and hurricane season can end right now and that fresh cool fall air can come down all it wants.I seriously hope that this a preview of the up coming fall and will continue into winter.Please!.
iam expecting a warmer than normal fall with a delay for winter by a month and a bit this season may only get a 2 month winter 3 weeks in jan 3 weeks in feb that will be it

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59629
Quoting 978. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't drink that stuff you will disappear just like the moss


Hey KOG... he should ship some up to you.. I hear you guys set big time records after your little rain event in July.

We got some rain on Friday... first rain in over a month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 965. GTstormChaserCaleb:
El Nino would do the trick. Hey can someone post the models for ENSO I would like to see if there still forecasting neutral to weak La Nina conditions or if they are starting to show El Nino conditions?
Quoting 971. washingtonian115:
I don't want la nina.Our winters have SUCKED.I'll pay the ultimate price like I did in 2009 to get the winter/fall I want.


It's shows neutral to La Niña

I want the winter of 09/10 that was the best fore us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 970. pottery:

Yeah, gallons of the stuff.
I have not had to use it yet this year, but I think soon.....

...otherwise I'm gonna have to drink the stuff.
don't drink that stuff you will disappear just like the moss
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59629
Quoting 974. Hurricanes305:
GFS has pressures lowering quite a bit to starting in 4 days a interestingweek lies ahead.

06z GFS MSLP Anomalies
(96 hours):



(Now):



Once the MJO crawls back in 2 weeks into Altantic well below normal MLSP anomalies by August 20th although its probably well overdone it gives you and indicator that the season might be heading into overdrive by August 20th forward.



Going to likely be tracking multiple storms at once. Wonder if we will get something like this?

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9442
Quoting 62901IL:

About listening to Orcasystems.

Fear not.
We are friends.
Or we were, until a little while ago.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Majority of Atlantic waters are at or above normal temperature.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2364
GFS has pressures lowering quite a bit, starting in 4 days a interesting week lies ahead.

06z GFS MSLP Anomalies
(96 hours):



(Now):



Once the MJO crawls back in 2 weeks into Altantic well below normal MLSP anomalies by August 20th although its probably well overdone it gives you and indicator that the season might be heading into overdrive by August 20th forward.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 969. NasBahMan:


Don't know about that, 1016 MB isobar all the way to Texas could be enough to keep any storms that do develop moving W-WNW.
True, depends on the strength of that storm.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9442
Quoting 967. moonlightcowboy:



Prettiest post I've seen all year long! ;)

Lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 965. GTstormChaserCaleb:
El Nino would do the trick. Hey can someone post the models for ENSO I would like to see if there still forecasting neutral to weak La Nina conditions or if they are starting to show El Nino conditions?
I don't want la nina.Our winters have SUCKED.I'll pay the ultimate price for hurricane season like I did in 2009 to get the winter/fall I want.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19591
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was just looking at the models... your going to get blobbed big time in the next week or so I think. I hope you still have some of that moss and hair remover left.

Yeah, gallons of the stuff.
I have not had to use it yet this year, but I think soon.....

...otherwise I'm gonna have to drink the stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 899. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The ridge looks weaker and positioned more towards the Azores, could be a sign of recurvature for the next storm.



Don't know about that, 1016 MB isobar all the way to Texas could be enough to keep any storms that do develop moving W-WNW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
img src="">


great video about the tropical storm with music zz top
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129991
Quoting 948. washingtonian115:
Wha wha what?.74-79 for a high?.IN AUGUST!!??!??.Early August?.Nooo that can't be true..I need to clean my glasses (comes back after a few minutes).Huh it's still there!.It must be true!.



Prettiest post I've seen all year long! ;)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
Quoting 962. pottery:

About what?

About listening to Orcasystems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 958. washingtonian115:
As far as I'm concern Summer and hurricane season can end right now and that fresh cool fall air can come down all it wants.I seriously hope that this a preview of the up coming fall and will continue into winter.Please!.
El Nino would do the trick. Hey can someone post the models for ENSO I would like to see if there still forecasting neutral to weak La Nina conditions or if they are starting to show El Nino conditions?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9442
Back later....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 957. pottery:

One of the true dangers of this medium, is that you never know who is skulking around outside.

Please dont listen to Orca.
He's Canadian, you know.

heheheheh, good to see you, Orc.


I was just looking at the models... your going to get blobbed big time in the next week or so I think. I hope you still have some of that moss and hair remover left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62901IL:

Your joking, right?

About what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 952. VR46L:


LOL !

Yep . It just makes sense when not everyone has the same level of knowledge !


It's funny sometimes. Close friends occasionally get to hear a phone conversation with colleagues, and when I hang up they ask me what the heck we were talking about. It's almost like a foreign language. And, the acronyms keep coming too, something new all the time, and nearly literally impossible to keep pace and retain quickly. So, I totally understand what you mean. :)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
Quoting 856. SouthernIllinois:

I want the temporary lull to be more than temporary. It is SO nice not hearing news of hurricanes wreaking death and destruction along the CONUS or the Bahamas or PR or anywhere. Don't know about you but this is a good thing!!


Being from the Bahamas I couldn't agree more, especially this early in the season, and to the newbies that are freaking out about the lull relax there is plenty of season left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 957. pottery:

One of the true dangers of this medium, is that you never know who is skulking around outside.

Please dont listen to Orca.
He's Canadian, you know.

heheheheh, good to see you, Orc.

Your joking, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As far as I'm concern Summer and hurricane season can end right now and that fresh cool fall air can come down all it wants.I seriously hope that this a preview of the up coming fall and will continue into winter.Please!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19591
Quoting Orcasystems:


Trust me.. I have the pictures.. you do not want to see it :)

One of the true dangers of this medium, is that you never know who is skulking around outside.

Please dont listen to Orca.
He's Canadian, you know.

heheheheh, good to see you, Orc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 950. Gearsts:
216hr
The longer the range the more I like to look at the pressure tendencies. The GFS has a similar ridging vs. troughing pattern. It could change between that time frame and judging by what we have seen so far the change would be to push whatever develops off the coast of Africa much farther west as we have seen the high be more stronger than what the models have been showing.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9442
Quoting 62901IL:

LOL.
Unfortunatey, I cannot see you waving.

Probably a Good Thing.

:):))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 936. 62901IL:

My forecast:
4 storms down, 10 to go, which is 6 Tropical Storms, 2 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes.

For a moment that didn't make sense because its usually put out like we would have 10 TS of that 10 2 would become Hurricanes and out of those Hurricanes both will become majors. unless if you really mean we will get 10 TD 6 TS 2 Hurricane 2 Majors. if that's the case well wow I haven't seen TD to TS ratio like that for donkey years in fact I think that could be before my time
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Quoting 946. 62901IL:

LOL.
Unfortunatey, I cannot see you waving.


Trust me.. I have the pictures.. you do not want to see it :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
952. VR46L
Quoting 945. moonlightcowboy:



:) Thanks. Ironically, I live and work in an acronym world now: technology. But, I was also in publishing for 23 years and have always understood the K.I.S.S. method and its strength to successful communication. And, we are generally encouraged not to use acronyms except internally for those very same reasons.


LOL !

Yep . It just makes sense when not everyone has the same level of knowledge !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 949. 62901IL:

Hey where have you been this past week?
I've been on.Just not as often.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19591
Quoting 947. GTstormChaserCaleb:
ECMWF 216 hrs. should the ridge not strengthen anymore the storm that comes off the coast of Africa would have a tendency to recurve around the base of the ridge as it is weaker over the region around Bermuda, would need the ridge over the East Coast to bridge and trap it continuing to move the storm on a w/wnw path.

216hr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 948. washingtonian115:
Wha wha what?.74-79 for a high?.IN AUGUST!!??!??.Early August?.Nooo that can't be true..I need to clean my glasses (comes back after a few minutes).Huh it's still there!.It must be true!.

Hey where have you been this past week?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wha wha what?.74-79 for a high?.IN AUGUST!!??!??.Early August?.Nooo that can't be true..I need to clean my glasses (comes back after a few minutes).Huh it's still there!.It must be true!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19591
ECMWF 216 hrs. should the ridge not strengthen anymore the storm that comes off the coast of Africa would have a tendency to recurve around the base of the ridge as it is weaker over the region around Bermuda, would need the ridge over the East Coast to bridge and trap it continuing to move the storm on a w/wnw path. Also troughiness along Eastern Canada.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9442
Quoting 944. pottery:
Incidentally, my house is about 2 miles north of that Radar site.
Can you see me waving ??

LOL.
Unfortunatey, I cannot see you waving.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 932. VR46L:


Your explainations are without too many acronyms that lose people like me trying to expand my knowledge ..



:) Thanks. Ironically, I live and work in an acronym world now: technology. There are so many acronyms, and many with the very same letters but mean something totally different. But, I was also in publishing for 23 years and have always understood the K.I.S.S. method and its strength to successful communication. And, we are generally encouraged not to use acronyms except internally for those very same reasons.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
Incidentally, my house is about 2 miles north of that Radar site.
Can you see me waving ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
943. VR46L
Quoting 924. pcola57:


Good Morning to you as well VR.. :)
I'll trade you my hot and humid day for your wet and cool day..
Lots of weather action in the Euro today..


Could ya deal with 62 dull and breezy ... LOL

I know I couldn't deal with your weather now ... It seems to be rain and thunderstorms all the time there ..

Yeah on the continent there's a bit of action but to be honest many parts of Europe consider, a whispy nador or a thunderstorm or 90°F severe .
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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