Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1032. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know Levi has mentioned this, but we will need to watch the Gulf of Mexico/Northwest Caribbean in a week or so for the potential of tropical cyclone development. High pressure off the Northeast coast should force convergence into the aforementioned regions, which, combined with a stalled-out cold front and potentially a passing tropical wave, should lead to lowering pressures.

Early guess is that anything that forms would travel straight west due to the high pressure farther north.


Texas would need to keep an eye on it.
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1042. SLU
The 12Z CMC starting to show signs of life in the MDR.
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1041. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1026. pottery:

Too late....

I'm still here.
But now I've disappeared from sight. No one can see me.
What's the anti-dote ?
it could be Right Under Moss
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cody ive seen enough mexico storms. honestly im sick of them :P
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Quoting 1035. USCGLT:


Thanks a lot Mika. I retired last February after 32 years of Active Duty as a LCDR...I miss it :)
The picture of the ship in the picture is the USCGC Spencer WMEC-905 out of Boston. I was actually in the perfect storm on her...we searched for that para-rescueman for 10 days. It was the only time in 32 years I was scared at work...


Now that folks, is an interesting post! Thanks for your service, I bet they miss you too.
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Here's an interesting note. According to the Alexa page, as far as the gender of people who visit here (relative to the internet population), males are underrepresented, and females are overrepresented.

I bet I'm not the only one surprised by this.
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Looks like ex-Dorian is transitioning into a non-tropical gale along that front moving into the NW Atlantic from the US....looks like ex-Dorian will still be trackable across the north Atlatnic for a few more days....I am getting tired of him....
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1035. USCGLT
Quoting 1019. mikatnight:


Nice avatar pic Lieutenant, causes smiles when viewed...


Thanks a lot Mika. I retired last February after 32 years of Active Duty as a LCDR...I miss it :)
The picture of the ship in the picture is the USCGC Spencer WMEC-905 out of Boston. I was actually in the perfect storm on her...we searched for that para-rescueman for 10 days. It was the only time in 32 years I was scared at work...
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Quoting 1027. wxgeek723:


We were I believe second most trafficked website for weather information during Hurricane Ike.


I found this page which says WU ranks 644 in the world and 158 in the US. Not too shabby.

Alexa Traffic Ranks
How is this site ranked relative to other sites?
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Good Morning Folks. Just touching base. There is a symbiotic, and inter-connected, relationship between SAL and Atlantic tropical storms as they are both caused my maximum equatorial heating which starts to peak in late August and through the month of September.

The next three weeks will mark the normal transition to these peak conditions; the ITCZ is going to start picking up, the initial waves in August (like the ones starting to come off the Coast of Africa now) are going to start to moisten the middle passage across the Atlantic, and once the ITCZ lifts up to around the 10N mark in a few weeks, some really robust waves are going to start to be developed by the models and the yellow and orange NHC crayons will start appearing on the outlooks.

The majority of the peak period waves will not develop but the ones that do (at the rate of about one every 1-2 weeks once we start a "cluster" of Cape Verde storms) will do so in accordance with the SAL levels during their particular passages. Some of them that emerge when SAL is thick in the Central Atlantic might remain at TD status until getting closer to the Antilles where the SAL retreats (west of 50W)allowing them to enter the Caribbean as tropical storms or hurricanes and these are the ones we will need to monitor closely.

Better chance of a fish storm for ones that develop into storms and hurricanes shortly after clearing the Cape Verde islands but it boils down to the ridging in the Atlantic...........It's all about the strength of the A-B high at this point in terms of trajectories towards the Caribbean and the timing of approaching late-August and September trofs as to when they will curve if they are a potential threat to the US.

No one has a clue at this early juncture as to how many fish storms, Caribbean landfalls, or US landfalls we will end up with this year as it will have to be determined on a storm-by-storm basis.
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I know Levi has mentioned this, but we will need to watch the Gulf of Mexico/Northwest Caribbean in a week or so for the potential of tropical cyclone development. High pressure off the Northeast coast should force convergence into the aforementioned regions, which, combined with a stalled-out cold front and potentially a passing tropical wave, should lead to lowering pressures.

Early guess is that anything that forms would travel straight west due to the high pressure farther north.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
1031. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128634
If this CFS forecast pattern like 2004 verifies,then it favors U.S landfalls.

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1029. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128634
1028. USCGLT
Quoting 960. NasBahMan:


Being from the Bahamas I couldn't agree more, especially this early in the season, and to the newbies that are freaking out about the lull relax there is plenty of season left.


Roughly 80% of the hurricanes in our pond occur between Aug 1st and Nov 1st, if I'm not mistaken
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Quoting 1022. mikatnight:
I think Wunderground is now the 100th most visited website.


We were I believe second most trafficked website for weather information during Hurricane Ike.
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1026. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't drink that stuff you will disappear just like the moss

Too late....

I'm still here.
But now I've disappeared from sight. No one can see me.
What's the anti-dote ?
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Today's tornado threat from the SPC:



We had a decently busy severe weather day yesterday:

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1024. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


And grow Moss & Mold where it does not belong... I think not :)

According to the weather people (politically correct terminology) ... we are going into another 2+ week period of sun (No matter what KOG hopes for).


Where is your 'spirit of adventure', man. :):))
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Quoting 1021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it was telnet old school stuff can't remember much of it anymore but here is a write up from wiki

Jeff Masters, then a PhD candidate in meteorology at the University of Michigan working under the direction of Professor Perry Samson, wrote a menu-based telnet interface in 1991 that displayed real-time weather information around the world. By 1992, they claim that the two servers they used were the most popular service on the Internet. In 1993 they recruited Alan Steremberg and initiated a project to bring Internet weather into K-12 classrooms. WU's president, Alan Steremberg wrote "Blue Skies", a graphical Mac gopher client, for the project which won several awards. When the Mosaic web browser appeared, this provided a natural transition from "Blue Skies" to the web.


wow, very cool!
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I think Wunderground is now the 100th most visited website.
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1021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1017. mikatnight:


Thanks KOTG, I was wondering...



Could be anyone from a bigwig, family member, or just some guy who likes to join early. ;)


it was telnet old school stuff can't remember much of it anymore but here is a write up from wiki

Jeff Masters, then a PhD candidate in meteorology at the University of Michigan working under the direction of Professor Perry Samson, wrote a menu-based telnet interface in 1991 that displayed real-time weather information around the world. By 1992, they claim that the two servers they used were the most popular service on the Internet. In 1993 they recruited Alan Steremberg and initiated a project to bring Internet weather into K-12 classrooms. WU's president, Alan Steremberg wrote "Blue Skies", a graphical Mac gopher client, for the project which won several awards. When the Mosaic web browser appeared, this provided a natural transition from "Blue Skies" to the web.
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Quoting 1018. pottery:

Wow, Orca. That's hot.

You should move to the Tropics, it's much cooler down here.


And grow Moss & Mold where it does not belong... I think not :)

According to the weather people (politically correct terminology) ... we are going into another 2+ week period of sun (No matter what KOG hopes for).

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Quoting 1014. USCGLT:


Indeed!!!


Nice avatar pic Lieutenant, causes smiles when viewed...
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1018. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


We have had nothing but sun and very dry weather... we are just one huge bonfire waiting to happen.

This is from my backyard a few weeks ago..


Wow, Orca. That's hot.

You should move to the Tropics, it's much cooler down here.
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Quoting 1012. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its from the very beginning when it was nothing but a temp report with location under the dos program way back I used it as well just never signed up


as a matter of fact I still think it works


Thanks KOTG, I was wondering...

Quoting 1013. wunderkidcayman:


Agreed


I agreed I'm saying to myself the same thing



Could be anyone from a bigwig, family member, or just some guy who likes to join early. ;)
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This is why CSU is my favorite tropical prediction center. They never lower there number too much like TDR did just because the Atlantic was a little cooler early July. In a mere 2 weeks or so the Atlantic have warmed greatly and the SAL may not affect the MDR just much as previously though the next update should be interesting though. Not to mention the usually warm subtropics we might see strengthening storms as they go up the East coast later this year. Overall the tropics have been changing quite a bit since Dorian first developed. It not entirely out the question a really weak La Nina may form in September. I'm really hoping that its not the case though.
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1015. VR46L
Quoting 1011. Tropicsweatherpr:


Why you don't like the anomalies?


I prefer working in solid temperatures rather than % .. you know whats the difference if the gulf is 31.5 °C or 31.6° for example ...if the other conditions are there
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1014. USCGLT
Quoting 906. AussieStorm:

@SEALofHonor
Happy 223rd Birthday to the US Coast Guard... Semper Paratus!!


Indeed!!!
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Quoting 1005. TylerStanfield:

The 7 day change shows the Nino Region 3.4 cooling down quite a bit, while 1+2 hold steady.


We could very well get a La Nina by Peak Season...

It has that "look"


Tomorrow's update should be interesting to see.


Agreed

Quoting 1006. mikatnight:


2001?

That's 4 years before Master's Blog even started?
Don't recall ever seeing a member with that old of a handle.

I agreed I'm saying to myself the same thing

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1012. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1006. mikatnight:


2001?

That's 4 years before Master's Blog even started?
Don't recall ever seeing a member with that old of a handle.
its from the very beginning when it was nothing but a temp report with location under the dos program way back I used it as well just never signed up


as a matter of fact I still think it works
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Quoting 1010. VR46L:


Umm I think ya posted the wrong map that's for sea levels anomaly

As much as I hate the SST anomaly map ...





Why you don't like the anomalies?
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1010. VR46L
Quoting 975. unknowncomic:
Majority of Atlantic waters are at or above normal temperature.



Umm I think ya posted the wrong map that's for sea levels anomaly

As much as I hate the SST anomaly map ...



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1009. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


ok fish gonna try get ya some rain you want it all at once or spread out over a few days
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1008. tj175
Quoting 985. eyewallblues:
Can't wait until August 10. What can we do to get things going?
-All of us on East Coast turn vacuum cleaners on, and point east...to get rid of that lousy "SAL".
-Contribute enough money to pave the entire Sahara Desert.
-Demand nuclear testing in the Eastern Atlantic to warm the waters to 90 F.

Thoughts?




LOL you are too funny
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Can I blame Global Warming for my stomach ache? There has to be a connection.
I called in sick and blamed Global Warming.
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Quoting 992. NasBahMan:


Agreed, with no weaknesses showing in the ridge the zonal flow that will result should keep everything moving on a W-WNW path.


2001?

That's 4 years before Master's Blog even started?
Don't recall ever seeing a member with that old of a handle.
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Quoting 1000. TylerStanfield:
We may just briefly get into a La Nina this month.
Nino Regions 1+2: -1.135


Nino Regions 3.4: -.31


It wouldn't take much to put us in a La Nina, 1+2 have been in a La Nina phase almost all year, and it would only take 3.4 to dive below the -.5 threshold for the rest of the month for us to be in a Weak La Nina. It seems like an easy task, yes? But the reality is that 3.4 has been teetering back and forth all season and will likely continue to do so, though right now is a primetime for La Nina to commence.

The 7 day change shows the Nino Region 3.4 cooling down quite a bit, while 1+2 hold steady.


We could very well get a La Nina by Peak Season...

It has that "look"


Tomorrow's update should be interesting to see.
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In case anyone remembers, twenty years ago today... lol Nolan Ryan rocks.




Also, cold front made it through here last night, cooler temps today!!
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Quoting 996. flcanes:
Oh no.
This pattern is very bad.
WHY?
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1002. wxhatt
For those of you whom haven't seen this BBC special about our ongoing weather extremes, Dr. Jeff Masters gives his expert analysis!

Global Warming changes the Jet Stream, cause of more Extreme Weather - YouTube




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Quoting 993. txjac:


I know what you mean. I leave Tuesday for a 10 day trip to Ohio. I guess its a good time to go but one always worries. I will be checking in though to make sure nothing does come up


Yep, it happens almost everytime. I'm catching a plane out of town (San Antonio Tx.) with a tropical system expected in the area.
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We may just briefly get into a La Nina this month.
Nino Regions 1+2: -1.135


Nino Regions 3.4: -.31


It wouldn't take much to put us in a La Nina, 1+2 have been in a La Nina phase almost all year, and it would only take 3.4 to dive below the -.5 threshold for the rest of the month for us to be in a Weak La Nina. It seems like an easy task, yes? But the reality is that 3.4 has been teetering back and forth all season and will likely continue to do so, though right now is a primetime for La Nina to commence.
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Quoting 996. flcanes:
Oh no.
If this pattern stays in place, the east coast will be demolished.

No favors a Carib and GOM demolition not E coast
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Quoting 995. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh my! That's hot for Canada standards, shucks even Florida doesn't get that hot unless you factor in the heat index. Is your heat kind of like a dry heat or a sticky/muggy heat?


Its actually a dry heat... we don't get the kind of humidity you get down south. My house is located in a very small valley surrounded by trees, so we get a small localized inversion area... we can broil or freeze :(
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997. SLU
Quoting 928. Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi pottery. I don't know if you have seen your new radar so here it is. An important tool to have.



It's finally back! Been down since March 2011 when it was struck by lightning.
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Oh no.
This pattern is very bad.
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Quoting 984. Orcasystems:


We have had nothing but sun and very dry weather... we are just one huge bonfire waiting to happen.

This is from my backyard a few weeks ago..

Oh my! That's hot for Canada standards, shucks even Florida doesn't get that hot unless you factor in the heat index. Is your heat kind of like a dry heat or a sticky/muggy heat?
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Quoting 988. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That makes the 3 of us, btw I like your avatar.


Yeah thanks Bluestorm5 made it for me

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993. txjac
Quoting 989. Sfloridacat5:
Just sit back and relax and get ready for the active part of the season.
It's an almost certainty that we will have a tropical system or two during the 1st or 2nd week of Sept.
I used to hate going out of town (visit family) during the first part of Sept.,because there's almost always a storm threatening the area.


I know what you mean. I leave Tuesday for a 10 day trip to Ohio. I guess its a good time to go but one always worries. I will be checking in though to make sure nothing does come up
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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