Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

Share this Blog
53
+

Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1093 - 1043

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

1093. 62901IL
Quoting 1092. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not a good pattern in terms of landfalls, look at the 155 line.


Oh no!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not a good pattern in terms of landfalls, look at the 155 line.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1091. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1088. Tropicsweatherpr:


When is the full moon Keeper?
aug 20th just after sunset
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1090. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134826
1089. 62901IL
Quoting 1088. Tropicsweatherpr:


When is the full moon Keeper?

August 21st.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1079. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we could be good to go till the full moon


When is the full moon Keeper?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15732
1087. 62901IL
Quoting 1086. stormchaser19:
GEM(CMC)and a ghost system in a bad zone..But at least the models are starting to show things... :)

Its going absolutely berserk. Low pressure systems, Mostly in the 1000s, are all over the place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GEM(CMC)and a ghost system in a bad zone..But at least the models are starting to be more enthusiastic ... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1002. wxhatt:
For those of you whom haven't seen this BBC special about our ongoing weather extremes, Dr. Jeff Masters gives his expert analysis!

Global Warming changes the Jet Stream, cause of more Extreme Weather - YouTube





Thanks, this is a great video, for those who didn't click on it I highly recommend it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1084. Patrap


Barrow, Alaska Experiences First Sunset In Months
By BECKY BOHRER 08/02/13 05:19 PM ET EDT



JUNEAU, Alaska -- For the first time since May, the sun has set in what is billed as the northernmost city in the United States.

According to the National Weather Service, the first sunset in Barrow, Alaska, since May 10 occurred at 1:57 a.m. Friday. The sun rose again at 3:12 a.m.

Barrow has continuous daylight for so long because of its location, hundreds of miles north of the Arctic Circle, and the tilt of the earth's axis of rotation.

The town of about 4,500 people will gradually lose sunlight each day until November. After that, the sun won't rise again until January – again, because of the rotational tilt.

The first sunset in months was a nonevent for some residents like Bob Green, an area resident since 1978 who didn't stay up to watch it the sunset.

"I've seen enough of them," he said. "I'm just glad that it's happening. I've had enough sun. I much prefer the winter."

Green, reached at work at Pepe's North of the Border restaurant, said Barrow seems to run better "when it's frozen."

There are no bugs or mud to deal with during the winter months, he said. Also, it's easy to make light in the winter but hard to get rid of that "big light bulb" that is the sun in summer.

While some people might find it strange to live somewhere with extended periods of sunlight or darkness, Patuk Glenn, museum curator at the Inupiat Heritage Center, said residents have grown accustomed to the seasons.


"Most of us, anyway, don't really suffer from that seasonal affective thing," she said, adding: "It's just part of life."

Things like successful spring and fall subsistence whale hunts are cause for excitement in Barrow, she said. There's no real fuss about the first sunset in months.

Like Green, she didn't stay up to see it.

"You know, I'm sleeping at that time," she said, noting she has a job to get to in the morning.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134826
Quoting 1076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but I don't think that's going to be the case in fact because of the current cooling trend on going if a rebound warm up comes it will take us into late sept unless nature has other plans we shall see latter half of august should warm up if not then early fall/winter is possible

who knows really



We've been having cold fronts crashing pretty far all year, except for a period in late May and June.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1082. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we could be good to go till the full moon
It's August 20th. Sounds about right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1081. IKE

Quoting 62901IL:

And we go into silence for the first week of august.
If u believe the GFS and ECMWF it could be a while before the "E" storm happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Western Carb, very favorable as for the Eastern Carb, God help and storm trying to pass through threre.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1079. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1077. IKE:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
............................................

Gets it through the 9th of August.
we could be good to go till the full moon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1078. 62901IL
Quoting 1077. IKE:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

And we go into silence for the first week of august.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1077. IKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
............................................

Gets it through the 9th of August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1068. washingtonian115:
Perhaps a early fall/winter which equals more troughs and fronts coming down..the jet stream going south causing more shear in the tropics ect..
but I don't think that's going to be the case in fact because of the current cooling trend on going if a rebound warm up comes it will take us into late sept unless nature has other plans we shall see latter half of august should warm up if not then early fall/winter is possible

who knows really
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1075. 62901IL
Quoting 1073. SouthernIllinois:
I'm liking this. =)

click image for larger view

I do too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1074. 62901IL
Gil, you're almost dead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1072. ncstorm
Quoting 1070. SLU:


Can you post it here or send a link?


I dont subscribe to Weatherbell..I only follow his weather tweets on twitter..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1070. SLU
Quoting 1064. ncstorm:


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h

http://Weatherbell.com post last night showed overall pattern similar to Aug 2004. Very chilly US. similar Atlantic SST/dry air


Can you post it here or send a link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1069. ncstorm


Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, and Hermine formed in the month of Aug
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1061. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I would like to know what he is basing that off of?
Perhaps a early fall/winter which equals more troughs and fronts coming down..the jet stream going south causing more shear in the tropics ect..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1067. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it could be Right Under Moss


Nice, thanks.

It worked, too.
Good to be able to come here and get all this Important Information.

Currently 92F temp, 49% humid, HI 97F.
Hotter than fire....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1066. SLU
Quoting 1061. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I would like to know what he is basing that off of?


Given that it's a cold biased neutral type pattern, Oct should be more active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1065. flcanes
Quoting 1061. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I would like to know what he is basing that off of?

Yep. Does not make much sense..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1064. ncstorm
Quoting 1061. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I would like to know what he is basing that off of?


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h

http://Weatherbell.com post last night showed overall pattern similar to Aug 2004. Very chilly US. similar Atlantic SST/dry air
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Extended TWO Product Desciption (PDF) | Extended TWO Survey

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041729
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GIL AND RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE...
BOTH LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT HAS A LOW
CHANCE...0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1062. SLU
Quoting 1056. AGWcreationists:
I was in Houston that summer, getting ready to drive north to college and staring at this beast in the Gulf:



Fortunately it made a bit of a left turn and sucked in some dry air. Houston only got a couple of squally feeder bands.


Certainly one of the most classical of Cape Verde major hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1058. ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

Expect a short, rather furious hurricane season this year as cap comes off mid/;ate August, but Octs not as as active as previous yrs
I would like to know what he is basing that off of?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1043. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Texas would need to keep an eye on it.
Texas would be very happy to get a tropical storm to refill some of the reservoirs.



Tropical Storm Hermine dumped over 16 inches of rain on my parents in the Georgetown, TX area. Although it caused a lot of flooding, it helped alleviate the impacts of the severe drought the next year by filling up low reservoirs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1059. ncstorm
I dont know if anyone noticed but on the 12z GFS, the low dissipated but the vorticity is still tracking across the atlantic and didnt recurve :o

last frame on the 12z GFS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1058. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

Expect a short, rather furious hurricane season this year as cap comes off mid/;ate August, but Octs not as as active as previous yrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1050. ncstorm:


why everytime I see that image, it brings to mind of Dilbert?



Thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1046. SLU:
Exactly 33 years ago today. The most powerful hurricane to ever strike St. Lucia in recorded history. Major Hurricane Allen at 135mph.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
I was in Houston that summer, getting ready to drive north to college and staring at this beast in the Gulf:



Fortunately it made a bit of a left turn and sucked in some dry air. Houston only got a couple of squally feeder bands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1051. aislinnpaps:


How long is that high pressure supposed to remain there?

The ridge should be replaced with a trough over the Northeast by a week out. It [the trough] deepens further thereafter.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34483
Going to work for 3rd straight day of 8 hours shift. Ugh... later.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8135
I'm tired of all this foreshadowing of and active period for cyclones coming up.I want fall to come.I'm being spoiled right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1049. SLU:


Yep. only a matter of time


Now I'm starting to imagine this blog as a giant empty room with only a large grandfather clock in it. Tick...tock...tick...tock...tick...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1032. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know Levi has mentioned this, but we will need to watch the Gulf of Mexico/Northwest Caribbean in a week or so for the potential of tropical cyclone development. High pressure off the Northeast coast should force convergence into the aforementioned regions, which, combined with a stalled-out cold front and potentially a passing tropical wave, should lead to lowering pressures.

Early guess is that anything that forms would travel straight west due to the high pressure farther north.




How long is that high pressure supposed to remain there?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3170
1050. ncstorm
Quoting 1048. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


big picture just a little over an hr old as of 1159am edt next image around 3 pm



why everytime I see that image, it brings to mind of Dilbert?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049. SLU
Quoting 1045. GTstormChaserCaleb:
An active ITCZ from the Prime Meridian to 140 W and above 10 N a recipe for development.


Yep. only a matter of time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1048. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1042. SLU:
The 12Z CMC starting to show signs of life in the MDR.


big picture just a little over an hr old as of 1159am edt next image around 3 pm

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1040. wunderweatherman123:
cody ive seen enough mexico storms. honestly im sick of them :P


I imagine the Mexicans share your sentiment. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1046. SLU
Exactly 33 years ago today. The most powerful hurricane to ever strike St. Lucia in recorded history. Major Hurricane Allen at 135mph.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1042. SLU:
The 12Z CMC starting to show signs of life in the MDR.
An active ITCZ from the Prime Meridian to 140 W and above 10 N a recipe for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1040. wunderweatherman123:
cody ive seen enough mexico storms. honestly im sick of them :P

Cool story.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34483
Quoting 1032. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know Levi has mentioned this, but we will need to watch the Gulf of Mexico/Northwest Caribbean in a week or so for the potential of tropical cyclone development. High pressure off the Northeast coast should force convergence into the aforementioned regions, which, combined with a stalled-out cold front and potentially a passing tropical wave, should lead to lowering pressures.

Early guess is that anything that forms would travel straight west due to the high pressure farther north.


Texas would need to keep an eye on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1093 - 1043

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
Rainbow in Riverside Geyser