Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Another analog 1933:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
1142. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

Nasty !

Heat Index here currently 102F

Small Tropical Islands are not supposed to be this hot.

Agreed. It's very dry as well. I'm really hoping far a bit of rain later in the week.

I see that T&T's radar is back up and running. Our radar is not fully functional at the moment, but it should be back up soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1135. Grothar:


Brutally hot here today, too.
extremely....I was going to run a marathon today, but I decided to go to Target instead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1140. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Thor Heyerdahl was sailing the Pacific at the time. And the song "Red Sails in the Sunset" was written in the 1930's. The dust was always there, they just didn't know where it was coming from. Besides, reliable records on go back 30 years. The early satellites thought they were looking at clouds.

Don't forget the old saying, "A peacock today, a feather duster tomorrow" It was Saharan dust they were cleaning up and didn't know it.

OK, I give way to your Greater Insight.
But didn't Thor sail the Atlantic as well? Kon-Tiki? I think he washed up on Barbados like a piece of driftwood....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1139. Grothar
Quoting 1125. Dakster:
What a beautiful day in Connecticut. I forgot that 75-80 could actually be a comfortable temperature if there is little humidity.

How are the tropics looking? Seems to be they are still quiet.

I agree, Grothar, dust has always been in the atmosphere.


Have a good trip, Dak. Nothing to worry about in the tropics for awhile.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Quoting 1136. Tazmanian:


EP, 08, 2013080418, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1267W, 40, 1004, TS,
Doesn't make sense to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Quoting 1131. MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB at T3.5 (55kts), whereas SAB is at T3.0 (45kts) for Henriette.

EP, 08, 201308041800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1230N, 12680W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

EP, 08, 201308041800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1240N, 12710W, , 2, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, GS, VIM, 3, 3030 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=3.0 FTBO DT

Based on this data, I see no problems raising the intensity to 50kts for the 5p.m. EDT advisory. Don't really understand why the NHC is lowballing the intensity.



EP, 08, 2013080418, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1267W, 40, 1004, TS,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1135. Grothar
Quoting 1130. pottery:

Nasty !

Heat Index here currently 102F

Small Tropical Islands are not supposed to be this hot.


Brutally hot here today, too.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
1134. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1130. pottery:

Nasty !

Heat Index here currently 102F

Small Tropical Islands are not supposed to be this hot.


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Sunday 4 August 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:70.0°F
Dewpoint:50.2°F
Humidity:49%
Wind:NNW 13 gust 27 mph

under a cool nnw flow and till next sat
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1133. Grothar
Quoting 1126. pottery:

Ah, but the Sahara Dust over the Atlantic is a relatively new phenomenon. (as far as we know, anyway)

Was first noticed in small quantities in the 1950's by people like Jaques Cousteau, and before him by Thor Hyerdahl (spelling?) who was sailing about on rafts of balsa wood and reeds to prove his theories of migration across oceans.

Anyway, in the 60's there was a project on Barbados to collect falling stuff on the Island, and they collected small quants. of Sahara Dust then.
It most certainly wasn't a visible thing then, and now it certainly is.


Thor Heyerdahl was sailing the Pacific at the time. And the song "Red Sails in the Sunset" was written in the 1930's. The dust was always there, they just didn't know where it was coming from. Besides, reliable records on go back 30 years. The early satellites thought they were looking at clouds.

Don't forget the old saying, "A peacock today, a feather duster tomorrow" It was Saharan dust they were cleaning up and didn't know it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
1132. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Nasty !

Heat Index here currently 102F


Visibility at 6.2 miles. Dust. Small Tropical Islands are not supposed to be this hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TAFB at T3.5 (55kts), whereas SAB is at T3.0 (45kts) for Henriette.

EP, 08, 201308041800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1230N, 12680W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

EP, 08, 201308041800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1240N, 12710W, , 2, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, GS, VIM, 3, 3030 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=3.0 FTBO DT

Based on this data, I see no problems raising the intensity to 50kts for the 5p.m. EDT advisory. Don't really understand why the NHC is lowballing the intensity.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1130. pottery
Quoting nigel20:
It's pretty hot and hazy today. I'll try to post a couple pics later.

Kingston Jamaica weather station
( updated Sun, 04 Aug 2013 12:59 pm EST )

34°C
High: 33°C | Low: 27°C
Partly Cloudy

Sunrise: 5:44 am
Sunset: 6:38 pm
Visibility: 9.99 km
Feels like: 34°C
Humidity: 63%
Wind: 38.62 km/h

The weather station for Kingston today - August 4, 2013, 12:57 pm: It is a HOT and NOT CLEAR today with an average degree of 34°C , visibility is at 9.99 km. However, there is relatively NORMAL humidity in the air at 63%, so it feels QUITE COMFORTABLE out here at the moment. Wind blow is so STRONG at 38.62 km/h on an EARLY sun rising day at: 5:44 am .

Nasty !

Heat Index here currently 102F

Small Tropical Islands are not supposed to be this hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1129. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


:P That was the year you stopped leaving fingerprints.

LOLOL, Indeed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1123. ncstorm:
Euro is very interesting..

posting Images..starts at 168 hours





we'll see if the Euro keeps it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1127. nigel20
It's pretty hot and hazy today. I'll try to post a couple pics later.

Kingston Jamaica weather station
( updated Sun, 04 Aug 2013 12:59 pm EST )

34°C
High: 33°C | Low: 27°C
Partly Cloudy

Sunrise: 5:44 am
Sunset: 6:38 pm
Visibility: 9.99 km
Feels like: 34°C
Humidity: 63%
Wind: 38.62 km/h

The weather station for Kingston today - August 4, 2013, 12:57 pm: It is a HOT and NOT CLEAR today with an average degree of 34°C , visibility is at 9.99 km. However, there is relatively NORMAL humidity in the air at 63%, so it feels QUITE COMFORTABLE out here at the moment. Wind blow is so STRONG at 38.62 km/h on an EARLY sun rising day at: 5:44 am .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1126. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
I don't buy into all this SAL business. I've seen a lot of storms form during large outbreaks. Look at 2005. I think most of it is hype so we post more maps. Many scientists even disagree on how much of an effect it has on systems. There has always been dust in the atmosphere now all of a sudden it's a problem.

Ah, but the Sahara Dust over the Atlantic is a relatively new phenomenon. (as far as we know, anyway)

Was first noticed in small quantities in the 1950's by people like Jaques Cousteau, and before him by Thor Hyerdahl (spelling?) who was sailing about on rafts of balsa wood and reeds to prove his theories of migration across oceans.

Anyway, in the 60's there was a project on Barbados to collect falling stuff on the Island, and they collected small quants. of Sahara Dust then.
It most certainly wasn't a visible thing then, and now it certainly is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1125. Dakster
What a beautiful day in Connecticut. I forgot that 75-80 could actually be a comfortable temperature if there is little humidity.

How are the tropics looking? Seems to be they are still quiet.

I agree, Grothar, dust has always been in the atmosphere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1124. Patrap
..try to set the Basin on Fire'...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1123. ncstorm
Euro is very interesting..

posting Images..starts at 168 hours



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1122. SLU
Quoting 1104. CybrTeddy:
Looking at the pattern being set in place, August 15th - 31st has potential to be not only very active but very dangerous. There are a few reasons to be said for this.

1) Low MSLP across the entire Atlantic as the MJO returns to our basin by mid-late August. This is shown on both the CFS and GFS, as the MJO phase comes around it will favor Cape Verde activity.

2) SST's rebounding in the MDR after that massive Saharan dust outbreak. Given the amount of rainfall seen in the last year over the Sahara, as well as the MJO coming back around as I mentioned, it's likely to stay lower than normal after the SAL clears up after this outbreak.

3) A very dangerous pattern in place that reminds me of 2004 and 2008. Weak trough over the US, strong ridge over the Atlantic


(thanks to post 1030 for the image.)

4) Very high amounts of TCHP in the Caribbean.

Reminds me a lot of what we saw right before things flared up in 2010.


I can feel the excitement building up! ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1121. Grothar
Quoting 1118. pottery:

Some, on the other hand, were already very old.


:P That was the year you stopped leaving fingerprints.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
1120. nigel20
Quoting SLU:
Exactly 33 years ago today. The most powerful hurricane to ever strike St. Lucia in recorded history. Major Hurricane Allen at 135mph.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Hi SLU! Allen came pretty close to the northern coast of Jamaica. There was quite a bit of damage, but it could have been a lot worst.
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1119. SLU
Quoting 1103. TopOfTheLakeFL:


http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-augus t-3-2013


Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1118. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Do you realize when you joined, some of the bloggers weren't even born.

Some, on the other hand, were already very old.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1104. CybrTeddy:
Looking at the pattern being set in place, August 15th - 31st has potential to be not only very active but very dangerous. There are a few reasons to be said for this.

1) Low MSLP across the entire Atlantic as the MJO returns to our basin by mid-late August. This is shown on both the CFS and GFS, as the MJO phase comes around it will favor Cape Verde activity.

2) SST's rebounding in the MDR after that massive Saharan dust outbreak. Given the amount of rainfall seen in the last year over the Sahara, as well as the MJO coming back around as I mentioned, it's likely to stay lower than normal after the SAL clears up after this outbreak.

3) A very dangerous pattern in place that reminds me of 2004 and 2008. Weak trough over the US, strong ridge over the Atlantic


(thanks to post 1030 for the image.)

4) Very high amounts of TCHP in the Caribbean.

Reminds me a lot of what we saw right before things flared up in 2010.


+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1116. Grothar
I don't buy into all this SAL business. I've seen a lot of storms form during large outbreaks. Look at 2005. I think most of it is hype so we post more maps. Many scientists even disagree on how much of an effect it has on systems. There has always been dust in the atmosphere now all of a sudden it's a problem.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
1115. Grothar
Quoting 960. NasBahMan:


Being from the Bahamas I couldn't agree more, especially this early in the season, and to the newbies that are freaking out about the lull relax there is plenty of season left.


Do you realize when you joined, some of the bloggers weren't even born.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1105. pottery:

Depressions.
The entire region is Depressed.
Most Depressing.

Etc, etc.....
Get Xanax for everyone.
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1112. nigel20
Good afternoon fellow bloggers!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 04 Aug 2013

Average for last 30 days 9.2
Average for last 90 days 9.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1107. weatherlover94:
Is it just me or is the ITTZ getting organized


Link ?
Is you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting weatherlover94:
is all of this Dry air ever going to go away ?


Link
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 3h

Expect a short, rather furious hurricane season this year as cap comes off mid/;ate August, but Octs not as as active as previous yrs


Don't forget September too! And give the dry ar some time. With those African waves, the atmosphere will become moisturized and unstable.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
is all of this Dry air ever going to go away ?


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it just me or is the ITTZ getting organized


Link ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1min
Models starting to build an upper-level ridge across the Atlc w/less shear. My guess is the 3rd week of Aug won't be as quiet as the 1st!

Eric Blake Hurricane Specialist, National Hurricane Center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1105. pottery
Quoting 62901IL:

Its going absolutely berserk. Low pressure systems, Mostly in the 1000s, are all over the place.

Depressions.
The entire region is Depressed.
Most Depressing.

Etc, etc.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the pattern being set in place, August 15th - 31st has potential to be not only very active but very dangerous. There are a few reasons to be said for this.

1) Low MSLP across the entire Atlantic as the MJO returns to our basin by mid-late August. This is shown on both the CFS and GFS, as the MJO phase comes around it will favor Cape Verde activity.

2) SST's rebounding in the MDR after that massive Saharan dust outbreak. Given the amount of rainfall seen in the last year over the Sahara, as well as the MJO coming back around as I mentioned, it's likely to stay lower than normal after the SAL clears up after this outbreak.

3) A very dangerous pattern in place that reminds me of 2004 and 2008. Weak trough over the US, strong ridge over the Atlantic


(thanks to post 1030 for the image.)

4) Very high amounts of TCHP in the Caribbean.

Reminds me a lot of what we saw right before things flared up in 2010.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1070. SLU:


Can you post it here or send a link?


http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-augus t-3-2013
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Quoting 1101. allancalderini:
Where does it moves later on?


IDK 240 Hr is his last time frame....
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Quoting 1086. stormchaser19:
GEM(CMC)and a ghost system in a bad zone..But at least the models are starting to be more enthusiastic ... :)
Where does it moves later on?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4458
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Depth 26.C Isotherm
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1098. ackee
Quoting 1086. stormchaser19:
GEM(CMC)and a ghost system in a bad zone..But at least the models are starting to be more enthusiastic ... :)
I think this is frist time this seasons the CMC devlops something in the Eastern Carrb most of Cmc ghost STORM HAVE BEEN IN THE Gom AND NEAR us EAST COAST may be sign that tropics will finally start to heat up in the cumming weeks
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Follow the trail could give an idea where something might go.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
1096. ncstorm
12z Euro running

48 hours
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Quoting 1086. stormchaser19:
GEM(CMC)and a ghost system in a bad zone..But at least the models are starting to be more enthusiastic ... :)
Different time frame, but lines up with the GFS ensemble spread.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Quoting 1058. ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

Expect a short, rather furious hurricane season this year as cap comes off mid/;ate August, but Octs not as as active as previous yrs
. LOL JOE!
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1093. 62901IL
Quoting 1092. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not a good pattern in terms of landfalls, look at the 155 line.


Oh no!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.