Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Models are showing one thing truly in common with each passing forecast run, that pressures are lowering in the MDR and African waves will continue to produce areas of interest.
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Quoting 1190. nigel20:

Yeah, Jamaica was very lucky with both storms.
Allen was really impressive. I'm happy that it that it didn't make impact at or close to peak intensity

Yeah thanks for also mentioning that here in Cayman we are extremely unlucky
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12818
Quoting 1186. wxgeek723:
There is so much doom in the blog this year...
Worse than I've ever seen it.

If this season fails to produce a category 5, a major US landfall, and at least 2 billion-dollar storms, I will be sorely disappointed in you all.


Hmm now that you mentioned it we have actually been in a Cat 5 drought for 5 years +months yep our last Cat 5 hurricane was back in 2007
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12818
1190. nigel20
Quoting 1175. SLU:


Allen and Ivan are the only 2 hurricanes recorded become a category five 3 times.




Yeah, Jamaica was very lucky with both storms.
Quoting 1168. NasBahMan:


Hurricane Allen was the first hurricane that really made me sit up and take notice of, the year before we got hit with David which was a joke compared to Allen, even today it is rare to get a storm that maintains its strength and structure as long as Allen did.

Allen was really impressive. I'm happy that it that it didn't make impact at or close to peak intensity
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Quoting 1184. nigel20:
I took some pics earlier. You can see that it's pretty hazy at the moment.






Interesting because its very very little here well next to none infact now it's starting to look a little cloudy on our S side
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12818
1188. barbamz
Quoting 1140. pottery:

OK, I give way to your Greater Insight.
But didn't Thor sail the Atlantic as well? Kon-Tiki? I think he washed up on Barbados like a piece of driftwood....



Source and more infos (Sort of hurricane track, lol)


The Ra Expeditions: Across the Atlantic Ocean by papyrus boat (1969-1970)

We read his book "Kon-Tiki" in school, amazingly in German literature, I think in the year 1973. Loved it (how often do you get this with mandatory school books?) and afterwards read nearly all his other books too, lol.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 66 Comments: 7483
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is so much doom in the blog this year...
Worse than I've ever seen it.

If this season fails to produce a category 5, a major US landfall, and at least 2 billion-dollar storms, I will be sorely disappointed in you all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1185. 62901IL
Quoting 1184. nigel20:
I took some pics earlier. You can see that it's pretty hazy at the moment.





Very nice!
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1184. nigel20
I took some pics earlier. You can see that it's pretty hazy at the moment.




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Quoting 1180. VR46L:


Not alot going on



Thanks for posting it. Is a matter of time I guess.
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Quoting 1180. VR46L:


Not alot going on


Not now but that may change very very soon
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12818
Quoting 1175. SLU:


Allen and Ivan are the only 2 hurricanes recorded become a category five 3 times.




Quoting 1179. wunderkidcayman:


They were two out of many of the worst tropical cyclones to make landfall in Cayman with Hurricane Ivan ranked #1 in Cayman Landfall history

I still remember it like it was yesterday every moment of it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12818
1180. VR46L
Quoting 1176. Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has the 12z Euro at 240 hours? Can't post as I am on phone.


Not alot going on

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Quoting 1175. SLU:


Allen and Ivan are the only 2 hurricanes recorded become a category five 3 times.





They were two out of many of the worst tropical cyclones to make landfall in Cayman with Hurricane Ivan ranked #1 in Cayman Landfall history
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12818
1178. 62901IL
Quoting 1177. LightningStrikez:
Duh I meant to post

Rookie error . sorry

That's OK.
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Duh I meant to post
Quoting 1169. 62901IL:

Welcome to the blog.


Rookie error . sorry
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone has the 12z Euro at 240 hours? Can't post as I am on phone.
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1175. SLU
Quoting 1120. nigel20:

Hi SLU! Allen came pretty close to the northern coast of Jamaica. There was quite a bit of damage, but it could have been a lot worst.


Allen and Ivan are the only 2 hurricanes recorded become a category five 3 times.



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Quoting 1166. LightningStrikez:


OMG!!!
Is the FIM a reliable model?


Thank you for your welcome!

I have lurked for a few months and probably will return for quite some time , trying to learn . I have only seen that model posted occasionally and was curious when it showed a nasty storm!
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1173. 62901IL
Quoting 1171. NasBahMan:


330 hours , some on this blog may not be alive in 330 hours

You mean, not be on the blog anymore?
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Rain moving in
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Quoting 1153. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ahem...taps mic. Ladies and Gentlemen might I direct your attention to the GOM.





330 hours , some on this blog may not be alive in 330 hours
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Quoting 1166. LightningStrikez:


OMG!!!
Is the FIM a reliable model?
It's an Experimental Model conducted by NOAA Research team. I do see it on NCAR/UCAR's website under the Experimental late cycle track guidance when there is actually a named storm.
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1169. 62901IL
Quoting 1166. LightningStrikez:


OMG!!!
Is the FIM a reliable model?

Welcome to the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1120. nigel20:

Hi SLU! Allen came pretty close to the northern coast of Jamaica. There was quite a bit of damage, but it could have been a lot worst.


Hurricane Allen was the first hurricane that really made me sit up and take notice of, the year before we got hit with David which was a joke compared to Allen, even today it is rare to get a storm that maintains its strength and structure as long as Allen did.
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Quoting 1116. Grothar:
I don't buy into all this SAL business. I've seen a lot of storms form during large outbreaks. Look at 2005. I think most of it is hype so we post more maps. Many scientists even disagree on how much of an effect it has on systems. There has always been dust in the atmosphere now all of a sudden it's a problem.



Well I think you have a point there, but at the same time, there is also sound science behind Saharan dust impacting tropical cyclone development. Although a trend of blaming the lack of activity on Saharan dust is certainly growing, but people often come up with false cause and effect relationships to explain things that they don't know the actual cause for. Since often times it sounds believable to many, scientific buzzwords or terms become suddenly popular on media sites and blogs without the correct knowledge base to apply them properly.

Again, not to say the Saharan dust isn't to blame, its reasonable to say its at least partly to blame, but I don't think it would be accurate to ay its the only reason or the "real" reason.

There are other complex reasons and some not so complex as well. One simple reason for example is that in order to generate tropical cyclones, you need vigorous disturbances, which there are little of right now.


Meanwhile, The rainy season has really fallen off the map here in West Central Florida, we are actually below normal rainfall over the past couple weeks after being notable above. This is the first time I've ever seen the second half of July into early August end up noticeably drier than early June through Mid July.

I keep expecting a pattern change to wetter conditions, but we've only had a few heavy storms here and there with 3 to 4 days in between without anything since. It probably won't continue for too long, but still its definitely very strange.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8577
Quoting 1153. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ahem...taps mic. Ladies and Gentlemen might I direct your attention to the GOM.





OMG!!!
Is the FIM a reliable model?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Actually not out of the question for the FIM-7 to verify even though it is a long ways out. The GFS is showing 850 mb. vorticity lifting up from the SW Caribbean, however takes it into the EPAC instead of the GOM. Also these Tropical Waves in the Central Atlantic might help spark development down the road.

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Quoting 1153. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ahem...taps mic. Ladies and Gentlemen might I direct your attention to the GOM.





I believe if the pattern depicted by the models are true. The entire tropics from the Gulf to the Eastern Atlantic will be favored for develop by Mid-late August. Mother Nature about to flip the switch big time.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 1115. Grothar:


Do you realize when you joined, some of the bloggers weren't even born.


In the early days of the blog you could get home from work at night and read through every comment in short order, those days are long gone.
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94W in the WPAC



It'll start to organise itself better once it gets fully over water. It's looking a lot better than a few days ago. I expect that tomorrow it'll become a TD and strengthen into a TS.
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The GFS depiction of very usually low pressures across the MDR is quite disturbing. As that is a recipe for very large rapidly strengthen area of low pressure. Not to mention the MJO sticking around our Basin into September. But we don't have to wait till August 15th and beyond for our next system. I can easily see a storm forming out of a active ITCZ that is becoming more moist by the end of this week. All it takes is for some more favorable conditions as well as a low hanging (around 10N line) TW for it to spin up.



A very dangerous pattern could unfold if this comes to past.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 1151. TheDawnAwakening:


The ITCZ is quite active and so is the African Wave train, so I don't think SAL will be that prohibitive if the waves move south of the CV Islands.


Dry, Stable, sinking air is the current detriment as
much as anything, and this should change in the next two weeks as pressures are predicted to fall basin wide, and a Positive MJO cycle returns.
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1159. Dakster
Quoting 1139. Grothar:


Have a good trip, Dak. Nothing to worry about in the tropics for awhile.


Thanks bud. Going to the CT Shore tomorrow... Should be absolutely gorgeous out.
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1158. 62901IL
Quoting 1157. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just trying to spice up the atmosphere in here on a slow day. Give us something to talk about. Actually the CMC model was showing something in the GOM and TAwx13 mentioned the prospects of lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean and GOM.

Oh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1155. 62901IL:

That's 330 hours out, so i won't say anything yet.
Just trying to spice up the atmosphere in here on a slow day. Give us something to talk about. Actually the CMC model was showing something in the GOM and TAwx13 mentioned the prospects of lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean and GOM. And that is the lowest resolution of the FIM models which is showing a large Tropical Storm.
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Question if I may...

How is an analog year chosen for a particular season? I have seen references to a few of them for this year and am curious as to how they chose a year. Is it based on historical data if so how what historical data is used?

tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1155. 62901IL
Quoting 1153. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ahem...taps mic. Ladies and Gentlemen might I direct your attention to the GOM.




That's 330 hours out, so i won't say anything yet.
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Quoting 1017. mikatnight:


Thanks KOTG, I was wondering...



Could be anyone from a bigwig, family member, or just some guy who likes to join early. ;)


No bigwig, no family member, just being from the Bahamas I have been a weather enthusiast since high school that later developed into a fascination with tropical weather.
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Ahem...taps mic. Ladies and Gentlemen might I direct your attention to the GOM.



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1152. Grothar
Quoting 1141. PalmBeachWeather:
extremely....I was going to run a marathon today, but I decided to go to Target instead.


Funny, I was going to go to Target, but decided to take a nap instead.
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Quoting 1149. canehater1:
Now that Dorian is finally gone..(It is gone, right?)

We may have to wait awhile for something to track in

the Atlantic Basin. SAL is prohibitive to say the

least...

Link


The ITCZ is quite active and so is the African Wave train, so I don't think SAL will be that prohibitive if the waves move south of the CV Islands.
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1150. Grothar
Quoting 1140. pottery:

OK, I give way to your Greater Insight.
But didn't Thor sail the Atlantic as well? Kon-Tiki? I think he washed up on Barbados like a piece of driftwood....


The Kon-Tiki washed ashore in the Pacific.

He landed in Barbados.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now that Dorian is finally gone..(It is gone, right?)

We may have to wait awhile for something to track in

the Atlantic Basin. SAL is prohibitive to say the

least...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1145. NasBahMan:


I used to use the University of Michigan's weather page before there was a Weather Underground, started using the Weather Underground when it came about in 1995 then became a member in 2001 to avoid the ads on my slow dial up connection.


Wow, and I thought I had been here for awhile now.
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Knoxville, Tn.

Mostly Cloudy

84°F
29°C

Humidity 46%

Wind Speed N 9 mph

Barometer 30.06 in (1016.8 mb)

Dewpoint 61°F (16°C)

Visibility 10.00 mi

Heat Index 84°F (29°C)
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Quoting 1006. mikatnight:


2001?

That's 4 years before Master's Blog even started?
Don't recall ever seeing a member with that old of a handle.


I used to use the University of Michigan's weather page before there was a Weather Underground, started using the Weather Underground when it came about in 1995 then became a member in 2001 to avoid the ads on my slow dial up connection.
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Quoting 1138. MiamiHurricanes09:
Doesn't make sense to me.

TXPZ28 KNES 041845
TCSENP

A. 08E (HENRIETTE)

B. 04/1800Z

C. 12.4N

D. 127.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO COMBINED LOWER AND UPPER
CENTERS WITH BANDING NOW 6/10 FOR A DT=3.0. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

Probably a little low.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33604
Another analog 1933:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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