Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1523. Camille33:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2013 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 28:39:59 N Lon : 79:13:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1010.2mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.5 2.8

Center Temp : -9.9C Cloud Region Temp : -25.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
If its for Dorian it will be upgrade to ts.
Quoting 1512. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?
Quoting 1512. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?
I believe Dorian is too small and too weak to affect you and produce rip currents.
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Quoting 1520. scott39:
Its really a marvel how many times MS. and Al. had a major hurricane, with such a small coastline.


An example of when it's not good to be popular.
But if you are, then it's best to be prepared...

HURRICANE PROTOCOL



HURRICANE AWARENESS


Hurricane Preparedness - Wunderground

Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide - NHC (pdf)

Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Palm Beach County

Storm 2013 - PB Post
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After struggling to redevelop during the past several days, Dorian has finally made a comeback. But not for long. Little change in strength is expected for the next day or so as northerly shear will keep it in check. Dorian should be absorbed by a frontal trough by early Monday morning.

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1524. GatorWX
I wonder how confident they really are. It has strong enough winds to support it, but look at its radar presentation. Horrible!

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Quoting 1521. hurricanes2018:
very high wind shear IN the Western Atlantic!


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2013 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 28:39:59 N Lon : 79:13:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1010.2mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.5 2.8

Center Temp : -9.9C Cloud Region Temp : -25.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
going up 2.0 now 2.2 !!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1475
Quoting 1517. Bluestorm5:
Right... Wilma... uh, nope.

going to be ts soon!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1475
very high wind shear IN the Western Atlantic!
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1520. scott39
Quoting 1504. mikatnight:
Its really a marvel how many times MS. and Al. had a major hurricane, with such a small coastline.
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Oh my goodness...dead gum CMC coming up with ANOTHER TX TROPICAL STORM. I saw the way it was moving...and its to TX. That CMC must realllllyyyy want this...that about 7 times ive seen this from THIS model.

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Quoting 1515. DocMurphy:
When I watch the WV loop, my (admittedly undereducated) eyes don't see xDorianBlob91LTD jumping on the train headed east. What influence with that high pressure have on our little annoyance today?


Well, Dorian has already gotten on the train. You can see the LLC running away. The MLC is staying put though, and it it stays there for long it may form a new LLC which would be Erin. By then, it may have already missed the trough and could drift West.
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Quoting 1415. Camille33:
91 l is about to do a Wilma on us. There is a clear rapidly rotating llc bunched up along the north side of an expanding mass of deep and slanted upward convection. In this situation given the forward movement being under 10 kt...this will suggest that the llc can get bounced under the vertical acceleration of the updrafts and take off.
Right... Wilma... uh, nope.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7981
1516. emguy
Quoting 1512. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?


Likely not a threat to do that, but visit the National Weather Service website when you get there. If there is a threat of rip currents, they will issue an advisory on their webpage. If you are at a beach with lifeguards, they also will be able to tell you the risks. Have fun.
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When I watch the WV loop, my (admittedly undereducated) eyes don't see xDorianBlob91LTD jumping on the train headed east. What influence with that high pressure have on our little annoyance today?
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1514. emguy
Quoting 1503. RascalNag:
I can't help but call into question the models we will get later today if they go along and assume the LLC is under the convection still. We'll have to see how they initialize this puzzle.


I have to completely agree. I have had the same line of thinking. Especially since this is a decouple, which the models are likely to hang onto the LLC.

First, that low level swirl need to get distance and get away from the picture. That is Dorian and it is not going to spin down anytime immediately. As a result, it is very highly unlikey that the mid level energey between the Bahamas and Florida establishes anything at the lower levels today. This will not "mix down today" in most liklihood.

That said, the mid level energy is kind of stuck where it is and not going anywhere fast (part of why this decoupled in the first place), so it will have time maybe tomorrow into Monday to get better defined...maybe earn that "e" name. It looks like there is a nest for potential favorable environments for development there, but it's gonna take time for the mean low level flow out of the southwest from the Dorian "parent" to clear out before this can happen.

One disclaimer for the 11AM...don't be surprised if the NHC tries to hang on to some "scientific" contunity/save face languagee in this advisory since they designated this one just hours ago. They may hang onto the coordinates close to where they first specified too. It is what it is...but don't get confused by it...Dorian is dead.
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And Dorian finally could regenerate.He is awesome and annoying at the same time.Can see the reaction of washi when she see him back.
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Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?
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The MLC appears to be developing an outflow.
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Quoting 1507. hurricanes2018:

good video!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1475
Is this a joke?
68F
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Quoting 1506. mikatnight:


haha
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Quoting 1483. scott39:
Dont fret Kori, I have a feeling even Walmart may have to close on the Gulf Coast this season.


That's part of why I was hoping I would get a chase. XD
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I can't help but call into question the models we will get later today if they go along and assume the LLC is under the convection still. We'll have to see how they initialize this puzzle.
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Quoting 1500. SFLWeatherman:

I think this will be ts soon
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1475
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1499. emguy
Quoting 1497. RascalNag:
If I implied it was still Dorian, I didn't mean to.

I agree that if a new LLC forms, it would be Erin. I guess Dorian is weighing the idea of a sex change...


Well...I'm not sure about that...but the idea of a male giving birth to a baby daughter is a new one. LOL
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Quoting 1497. RascalNag:
If I implied it was still Dorian, I didn't mean to.

I agree that if a new LLC forms, it would be Erin. I guess Dorian is weighing the idea of a sex change...

check radar lot of red now!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1475
If I implied it was still Dorian, I didn't mean to.

I agree that if a new LLC forms, it would be Erin. I guess Dorian is weighing the idea of a sex change...
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td not moving at all why is it saying 5 mph?? Link
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1495. emguy
Quoting 1492. RascalNag:


Looking at shortwave, I do see it now. But there is also definitely rotation in the convection, so over the next few hours we'll need to see if it mixes down. If it does, then it will buy itself more time just as it did yesterday when in repositioned to west of Grand Bahamas.


In the area you reference...that's the mid level energy that has been left behind. The system has been in a status of rapid decoupling (low/mid level seperation) all morning long. This is exactly why I said Dorian was going to be dead, and anything that formed under the mid level energy would be the "Daughter of Dorian"...deserving the letter "E". I have never ever seen the NHC recongize something where the low and mid level energy was in a decoupling status in a positive light...let alone upgrade/designate it. One thing is for sure though, if a new surface low form over the area you reference...it's not a center relocation...and it's not Dorian. He's left the picture already. It should be something else in accordance with clearly defined meterological terminology and protocol.
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Quoting 1489. sar2401:

No problem, they just say "casualties" and damage instead. :-)


See how much more pleasant that sounds? Casualties is like, casual, which is mellow and laid-back, and Damage, well, perhaps they're just cursing the number of birthdays...
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1493. WRook
Mid level circulation appears to be at about 27.8
Link
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Quoting 1487. ecflweatherfan:


First, the Shortwave IR2 channel clearly depicts a low level spin near 29.5N 79.0W moving north, separated from the convection.

Remember now that we are in Dmax, so the convection will sustain itself for a while, especially over 30C Gulf Stream bath water. Once we get into the day, now that, from what I believe to be the case, the LLC is separated (unlike earlier this evening), that convection will wane. Also look at the radar loops, the thunderstorm activity is moving in bulk to the NE, not in rotation around the center.


Looking at shortwave, I do see it now. But there is also definitely rotation in the convection, so over the next few hours we'll need to see if it mixes down. If it does, then it will buy itself more time just as it did yesterday when in repositioned to west of Grand Bahamas.
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I do not see a CoC at those coordinates the NHC gave. Nor do I see convection over those coordinates. The convection is just south of there. Cape Canaveral sits at 28.5N, which means the convection would have to be north of the latitude of the Cape.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
1490. emguy
It does not take a rocket scientist to see the true low is near 30.0N, 79.0W. ASCAT data is great, but only if available in real time... NHC really blew it on this one...
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1489. sar2401
Quoting mikatnight:
1477 -

Our mets are not allowed to say "death" or "destruction", it's in their contract...

No problem, they just say "casualties" and damage instead. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14399
1488. scott39
My love/hate feelings for TCs, are thrilling yet chilling!
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Quoting 1473. RascalNag:
It really would be a head scratcher if the LLC raced ahead like that, considering it's sitting in <10 kt steering. I don't think I could believe that until visible stuff is out. If it is the case though, what's interesting is that the MLC would likely be in place for a long time, as the mid level winds would favor it being more stationary. Also, for the LLC to have moved off but not being the source of convection would be new - each time the LLC has gotten far away from the LLC, it has let the MLC die and went off with its own convection.


First, the Shortwave IR2 channel clearly depicts a low level spin near 29.5N 79.0W moving north, separated from the convection.

Remember now that we are in Dmax, so the convection will sustain itself for a while, especially over 30C Gulf Stream bath water. Once we get into the day, now that, from what I believe to be the case, the LLC is separated (unlike earlier this evening), that convection will wane. Also look at the radar loops, the thunderstorm activity is moving in bulk to the NE, not in rotation around the center.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
1486. sar2401
Quoting Felix2007:
Lol why is it a circle instead of the normal TD symbol?


Another "helpful" change made this year. A TD will now get a thick solid red line instead of the skinny dashed line do the 60% and above "high" chance invests. Only a TS or hurricane will get a symbol. Same deal with the color code around the outlook box and the five day percentage forecasts. I think there is some group at the NHC and/or NOAA that could get furloughed with no noticeable decrease in forecasting skill. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14399
Not surprised they brought the ol' boy back to life. Clearly a TD, quite possibly even a TS right now. If it fits the bill, why wouldn't they? What an amazing journey for Dorian. How nice of him to come all the way across the Atlantic and pull up just short of landfall. Has been deepening over the last few hours quickly and conditions should let Him get to 40-50mph TS later today.
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1484. GatorWX

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Dorian
Was Located Near Latitude 28.7 North...Longitude 79.2 West. The
Depression Is Moving Toward The North Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H. This
General Motion Is Expected To Continue Today...Followed By A Gradual
Turn Toward The Northeast On Sunday. On The Forecast Track...Dorian
Is Expected To Remain Well Offshore Of The Southeastern Coast Of
United States.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours...Followed By Gradual Weakening Thereafter.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1013 Mb...29.91 Inches.
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1483. scott39
Quoting 1476. KoritheMan:
Wow. Now I realize how close Dorian is to the Gulf, and I realize how pissed off it's making me.

I was looking forward to the potential for a tropical cyclone chase. Even had the days off for it.

Ugh. >_>
Dont fret Kori, I have a feeling even Walmart may have to close on the Gulf Coast this season.
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1477 -

Our mets are not allowed to say "death" or "destruction", it's in their contract...
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1481. scott39
exDorian.....now a wimp of a TD, makes me ponder. I dont like the tenacity or tracks of Chantal and Dorian in July. Mid August through September could have the potential to raise some hairs on our necks...
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1480. GatorWX
What a fighter! Welcome back Dorian!

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Quoting 1477. sar2401:

No. The "west" part is off the coast now and will be slowly moving NNE of the area. The only thing left behind will be the usual sea breeze thunderstorms. Local mets tend to make stroms do as many things as possible so they have a greater chance one of them will be right. Today, you'll here him say that the west section of Dorian is moving away after a narrow escape with death and destruction on the coast. :-)

Ok, thanks.
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1478. emguy
Quoting 1468. sar2401:

They pretty well telegraphed it in the 0200 TWO if you're at all familiar with reading between the lines on those things.


Actually, I'm more than familiar with their language...In the past...I participated in pretty much every NHC Conference Call during the 2004, 2005 Hurricane seasons, plus many others since.

When the 2 AM came out, there was not much to read between the lines...they identified the parameters for development. That's all.

Since then...that low level center ejected north quickly. Even on Long Range Melbourne Radar...it is evident that there is no Low Level Center where they say it is. Actually, the thunderstorms that are northeast of their estimated center are in fact moving well away to the northeast (toward the true low that was Dorian and has departed). It makes no sense. LINK

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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