Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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First visible shows the naked swirl.

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1577. Matt74
Quoting 1570. PanhandleChuck:
This blog is the definition of "tropical depression" - when there are no hurricanes or blobs to track. This is a seasonal disorder and most bloggers experience syptoms from mid October through early July. Models of doom, destruction and death are usually the cure. Actual major hurricanes will set off great feelings of euphoria and delight that can only be compared to the feeling children get as they go to bed on Christmas Eve.
HAHAHAHAHA! One of the funniest statements I've ever read on here. Good stuff! Truth too
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looks like something going on east verobeach or little south of that,somethings going,wierd!
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I'm pretty sure I can see the shear splitting over the MLC and pulling from either side while leaving the center undisturbed. Isn't this a situation where ventilation can be enhanced?
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The Firework that never goes out..xDorian



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iiiiiiiiiit's GROUNDHOG day!

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1572. MahFL
Quoting 1571. hurricanewatcher61:
mmmm? looks like it decoupled, maybe a new center formimg,imo.


I agree.
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mmmm? looks like it decoupled, maybe a new center formimg,imo.
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This blog is the definition of "tropical depression" - when there are no hurricanes or blobs to track. This is a seasonal disorder and most bloggers experience syptoms from mid October through early July. Models of doom, destruction and death are usually the cure. Actual major hurricanes will set off great feelings of euphoria and delight that can only be compared to the feeling children get as they go to bed on Christmas Eve.
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1569. MahFL
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Not even close to drying out, Aussie.

No rain yesterday, for a change, but we did have shower pass thru this morning already. We are waterlogged.
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1567. MahFL
I think the visible shows Dorian is not where the NHC says it is......
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Kind of looks like the MLC is moving south, though it may be an optical illusion caused by how convection is right now
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1565. snotly
Regardless of shear that's a bad place for a tropical system to sit, it never runs out of warm water.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I have no idea Aussie. I just took a guess is all.


I see the decouple. I wouldn't put it past the MLC to spin up another one tho if it hangs out long enough.


Yeah I no. Have you managed to dry out there Doug?

edit: I just asked NWS Miami via twitter if they could explain. Will let you know if they reply.
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Quoting 1548. AussieStorm:


It would of been nice to of been told they were changing the symbol. Have they changed the symbol for Hurricane also?
No Gil when was a hurricane was the same.I prefer the old symbol of the td I don`t like the new one but that is just me.
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1562. Pallis
Quoting 1550. GatorWX:


That's good. We have a similar petition going around on fb for saving the tarpon in Boca Grande Pass from illegitimate fishing techniques namely the Boca Grande jigging method. The fishery, especially concerning Tarpon is vital to the local economy. The lake water has made fishing over here a bit tough nearshore. Caloosahatchee discharge has been strong and creating a lot of brackish water and dead sea grass. Good luck with the petition and protest.
Why would anyone want to catch a tarpon? They are giant minnows known to save divers from sharks and I have never heard of anyone eating one. Yankees suck.
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If you zoom out and scroll the "wdtinc" interactive radar up the coast, you see a possible feeder band from the north, leading into something due east of Daytona Beach...

Not enough on there to be sure of anything, but I have indicated possible location in yellow...

29.0N, 79.6W

Sure enough, new convection there, but as strong as last night. Click on image for live loop...

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Tropical Depression? Throws me off.
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I don't know whether it's a new thing, a one-time thing, or maybe just something given to depressions that have formed from the remnants of previously-named storms, but the red circle seems like a great improvement over that clunky capital 'L'. The circle is more intuitive than the L, and it's certainly more helpful; after all, where exactly is the center of an L?

I hope they stick with it...
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Quoting 1548. AussieStorm:


It would of been nice to of been told they were changing the symbol. Have they changed the symbol for Hurricane also?



I have no idea Aussie. I just took a guess is all.


I see the decouple. I wouldn't put it past the MLC to spin up another one tho if it hangs out long enough.
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1557. GatorWX
Doesn't it seem they're a little more conservative when the potential system isn't just offshore from Florida? :)
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Looks like his soul was ripped out.

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1555. GatorWX
May have jumped the gun a bit.

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Maybe the NHC changed the TD symbol on August 1 as they started to experiment 5-day TWOs.
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Geez...go away already

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Last few satellite frames make it seem like the MLC just hopped west a tad. Rotation also seems more vigorous. Radar does not seem to support this yet though.
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1550. GatorWX
Quoting 1544. indianrivguy:


BIG protest today at Phipps park over the polluted water discharges being dumped on the St. Lucie.. more than 2000 have signed up on Facebook.


That's good. We have a similar petition going around on fb for saving the tarpon in Boca Grande Pass from illegitimate fishing techniques namely the Boca Grande jigging method. The fishery, especially concerning Tarpon is vital to the local economy. The lake water has made fishing over here a bit tough nearshore. Caloosahatchee discharge has been strong and creating a lot of brackish water and dead sea grass. Good luck with the petition and protest.
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...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





The new and improved NHC?


It would of been nice to of been told they were changing the symbol. Have they changed the symbol for Hurricane also?
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I see the decoupling that several bloggers have mentioned. Will the mid level center follow TD Dorian or come ashore in Eastern FL? We had record amount of rainfall in Gainesville, FL in July. Much of the state is pretty water logged.
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1546. GatorWX


Interesting swirl headed north out of Dorian. I can't imagine this is a TC. It's been an interesting, persistent little thing though, I'll give it that. Waiting for the MJO. Things could seemingly get interesting quickly after watching the epac this week. Good morning and have a great day everyone. We'll see how long "Dorian" lasts.
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Quoting 1543. AussieStorm:


This isn't the TD symbol?





The new and improved NHC?
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Quoting 1540. GatorWX:
Seeds being planted early for inland storms.





How's the lake doing? Haven't noticed a ton of rain lately along the Kissimmee. I don't how far it's watershed extends. We've had rain the last 4 days here in sw FL. Very dense humid airmass! 79 F and 83 F dewpoint. Waiting for that first visible shot of "Dorian". First ones are usually the most telling when there's convection in the way. It's hard to discern anything on radar.


BIG protest today at Phipps park over the polluted water discharges being dumped on the St. Lucie.. more than 2000 have signed up on Facebook.
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Quoting allancalderini:
The new td symbol.


This isn't the TD symbol?
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Finally! He's back! The red circle caught me off guard at first lol
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2457
1541. GatorWX

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1540. GatorWX
Seeds being planted early for inland storms.



Quoting 1536. indianrivguy:


That used to be Florida, until they stole it from us.. all hail the Bonnie Blue!



How's the lake doing? Haven't noticed a ton of rain lately along the Kissimmee. I don't how far it's watershed extends. We've had rain the last 4 days here in sw FL. Very dense humid airmass! 79 F and 83 F dewpoint. Waiting for that first visible shot of "Dorian". First ones are usually the most telling when there's convection in the way. It's hard to discern anything on radar.
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1539. emguy
Quoting 1531. Camille33:

Link look low level move se and mid level not move at all!!!!!!!


I disagree...as radar is deceptive to read when differentiating mid level/low level/plus new thunderstorm activity...which can lead to optical illusion such as you just described, but I assure, there is no low level action going on here. Any assemblance of weak vorticity is at the mid levels. The mean low level flow is purely from the SW to NE.
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1538. WxLogic
Good Morning... and morning Dorian.
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Quoting 1532. AussieStorm:
I go away for a few hours and Frankenstein opps I mean Dorian is back from the dead.

But what' with the big circle?
Quoting 1532. AussieStorm:
I go away for a few hours and Frankenstein opps I mean Dorian is back from the dead.

But what' with the big circle?
The new td symbol.
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Quoting 1520. scott39:
Its really a marvel how many times MS. and Al. had a major hurricane, with such a small coastline.


That used to be Florida, until they stole it from us.. all hail the Bonnie Blue!

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What's up with the big red doughnut ?
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Good Morning All! Well he's back ,to a degree , like Camille33 , and others see it looks stalled not moving at all , and the NHCs track I don't think will verify ! Just my opinion .
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Gotta go. Check back in later, and I'll have the GM pics posted at 9am sharp (1pm GMT)...

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I go away for a few hours and Frankenstein opps I mean Dorian is back from the dead.

But what' with the big circle?
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Quoting 1530. emguy:


On this radar representation...you can truely see the characteristics of the decouple. There is a mid level reflectivity affiliated with the mid level system, and the radar picks up on that rainfall...but just the same...activity is ALL moving SW to NE at the lower levels. The low level center is indeed gone from the picture as Dorian is that low level swirl we've been following now moving north of 30 degrees and the SW flow at the low levels on radar confirms it. Yeah, he's more than done.

Link look low level move se and mid level not move at all!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
1530. emguy
Quoting 1524. GatorWX:
I wonder how confident they really are. It has strong enough winds to support it, but look at its radar presentation. Horrible!



On this radar representation...you can truely see the characteristics of the decouple. There is a mid level reflectivity affiliated with the mid level system, and the radar picks up on that rainfall...but just the same...activity is ALL moving SW to NE at the lower levels. The low level center is indeed gone from the picture as Dorian is that low level swirl we've been following now moving north of 30 degrees and the SW flow at the low levels on radar confirms it. Yeah, he's more than done.
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Just few hours of sleep tonight... I got 7-3 shift today (ugh)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.