Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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First hint of a pattern change in the basin over the next week. 500mb ridge moves north towards Europe as lower pressures move in over the MDR. Maybe a slight reprieve in the trade winds but we have to see how the dry air does if it sticks around or not.
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Good Morning!

7:15 am (11:15 GMT)

A sailboat anchored just south of the boat ramps sits on choppy waters of the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter steals one of the peanuts laid out for the squirrels in Bicentennial Park. He carefully breaks open the shell, removes the skin, then eats the peanut! He prefers dry roasted, unsalted.

Recorded a grand total of 0.18" of rain yesterday, not exactly a major event - though I saw Ft. Lauderdale and the inland areas got doused again.





Go HERE to see my rainfall log for the year.

PS - y'all quit making fun of Dorian, it's my stepson's name, yer gonna give 'im a complex!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 1601. CaicosRetiredSailor:




Decoupled.
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Quoting 1619. hydrus:
L is mad at you Nea. You said he was clunky, unhelpful, and non intuitive..Now he has to go to counseling.


You can either learn to love the new circle, or you can go to L.
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Quoting 1588. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. That big blob over Missouri and Arkansas looks more like a tropical cyclone than Dorian, lol.



Yes that's ridiculous.
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1623. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20491
Quoting 1611. ncstorm:
one more thing before I leave..the 00z Euro showed this at hour 216--Africa..some potential might be setting up..



20N already!! Too Far NORTH! That's boring lol.
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@NWSTallahassee
Humidity will make it feel hot with heat indices from 100-105F. Be careful out there and stay hydrated!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Coconut Creek

Today

90 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
Tropical Depression Dorian <---
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20135
1619. hydrus
Quoting 1559. Neapolitan:
I don't know whether it's a new thing, a one-time thing, or maybe just something given to depressions that have formed from the remnants of previously-named storms, but the red circle seems like a great improvement over that clunky capital 'L'. The circle is more intuitive than the L, and it's certainly more helpful; after all, where exactly is the center of an L?

I hope they stick with it...
L is mad at you Nea. You said he was clunky, unhelpful, and non intuitive..Now he has to go to counseling.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20491
Quoting 1613. gulfportbrees:
Dorian..... The little blob that could. You have to hand it to him, he has definitely been a fighter. Hopefully he's about ready for eternal rest now. Gonna be another hot & humid one here on the MS Gulf Coast. Hope everyone has a great day whereever you are!
a lesson learned that systems are dynamic and there is no certainty in forecasts.
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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20135
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20135
Quoting 1613. gulfportbrees:
Dorian..... The little blob that could. You have to hand it to him, he has definitely been a fighter. Hopefully he's about ready for eternal rest now. Gonna be another hot & humid one here on the MS Gulf Coast. Hope everyone has a great day whereever you are!

Hmm... I have heard someone saying "Dorian, the little storm that couldn't..." Does he get crow?
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Dorian..... The little blob that could. You have to hand it to him, he has definitely been a fighter. Hopefully he's about ready for eternal rest now. Gonna be another hot & humid one here on the MS Gulf Coast. Hope everyone has a great day whereever you are!
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Monsoon moisture will increase over eastern Colorado today, bringing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of the region. Abundant moisture and slow moving storms will result in a heightened risk of locally heavy rain today, with a flash flood watch in effect this afternoon and evening for areas in and around the burn scars in Teller and El Paso counties. Along with the possibility of heavy rain across all of eastern Colorado...strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon across the eastern plains and adjacent mountain areas. Persons in these areas should remain weather alert this afternoon and evening and be prepared to move to a safe location should the need arise. (Please visit http://weather.gov/pub for more information.

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1611. ncstorm
one more thing before I leave..the 00z Euro showed this at hour 216--Africa..some potential might be setting up..

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Quoting 1608. pie314271:
The circle might be because they can't decide if it's a TS(????) or a TD.

Maybe because they can't decide if it's a TW(?!?!) or a TD.
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1609. will40
Quoting 1608. pie314271:
The circle might be because they can't decide if it's a TS(????) or a TD.


naw just a new icon for the NHC
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The circle might be because they can't decide if it's a TS(????) or a TD.
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1607. ncstorm
well guys, I will be back later..I'm so glad my balloon was hidden..this has been one interesting storm..06z GFS doesnt even have a depression on initalization..the models and the best of forecasters got one that will be studied and talked about for years..

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Quoting 1597. ncstorm:


ha ha..this is so great!! I wish I could plus it again!!


Aw, shucks. Thanks.
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1605. guygee
Quoting 1562. Pallis:
Why would anyone want to catch a tarpon? They are giant minnows known to save divers from sharks and I have never heard of anyone eating one. Yankees suck.
Leave the Greek and Italian immigrants out of your senseless civil war. They were in Europe while "Yankees" and "Rebels" were slaughtering each other.
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Is it really moving N., and at what speed, or is it expanding wind field and still almost stationary?
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"BIG" circle?
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Curious as to whether we can get a new LLC to form underneath the main convection, and if so, where would it likely head?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
are u serious? dorian again? looks like jose part 2 omg!

nah Karen part 29
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting 1590. CitikatzSouthFL:


We don't eat them. They are great fighting fish and fun to catch. Once landed, they are released. At least anyone I know has never kept one to eat.


Tag and release only. Catching even a small one, 15-20 pounds, on light tackle or a fly rod, is about as good as it gets fishing wise.
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1598. will40
Quoting 1595. oceanspringsMS:


A lot of rain headed for the middle of the Atlantic ocean. What is the big deal?


did i say it was a bigg deal?
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1597. ncstorm
Quoting 1586. DocMurphy:
Depressions 3: 5-9

And when the Wise Men of Miami looked down from the heavens, they were amazed at the vision. The spinner had risen from the dead. They summoned the soothsayers and oracles to explain this mystery. Dorian! Dorian! Dorian has risen from the dead! And there was much rejoicing in the Land of Blog and the Wise Men of Miami feasted on crow.


ha ha..this is so great!! I wish I could plus it again!!
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1596. Nimitz
Link

Looks like no Atlantic storms for a few days....
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Quoting 1593. will40:


we tried to tell them lol


A lot of rain headed for the middle of the Atlantic ocean. What is the big deal?
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1594. guygee
The naked swirl is apparent on the IR2 loop, well to the north of the deep convection. Upper level winds shearing heavily on Dorian's rebirth.

From the NHC Discussion,
"An alternative scenario is that dorian could shear apart and
weaken sooner than forecast."
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1593. will40
Quoting 1592. ncstorm:
so We have TD Dorian...crow for breakfast for a lot of folks..LOL


we tried to tell them lol
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1592. ncstorm
so We have TD Dorian...crow for breakfast for a lot of folks..LOL
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are u serious? dorian again? looks like jose part 2 omg!
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Quoting 1562. Pallis:
Why would anyone want to catch a tarpon? They are giant minnows known to save divers from sharks and I have never heard of anyone eating one. Yankees suck.


We don't eat them. They are great fighting fish and fun to catch. Once landed, they are released. At least anyone I know has never kept one to eat.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
Quoting 1588. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. That big blob over Missouri and Arkansas looks more like a tropical cyclone than Dorian, lol.

Dorian at this time reminds me of Bonnie.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4003
Good morning. That big blob over Missouri and Arkansas looks more like a tropical cyclone than Dorian, lol.

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About to board... Will check on this in about 3 hours.
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Depressions 3: 5-9

And when the Wise Men of Miami looked down from the heavens, they were amazed at the vision. The spinner had risen from the dead. They summoned the soothsayers and oracles to explain this mystery. Dorian! Dorian! Dorian has risen from the dead! And there was much rejoicing in the Land of Blog and the Wise Men of Miami feasted on crow.
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AL, 04, 2013080312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 788W, 30, 1013, TD
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Quoting 1556. cajunkid:
Looks like his soul was ripped out.



LOL! Yes, that was my first thought too, looked kinda creepy LOL
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1583. 10Speed
Once upon a time, long,long ago when Dorian was first born there was an initial "guess projection" track for Dorian that brought it basically on the track it's gone except that the initial projection brought it ashore around Miami or PB, then it swung up the west side of Lake Okeechobee and then veered northeast, out to sea. Overall, it came pretty close to that path-wise. Not bad actually, considering the actual time involved. Strength projection is an entirely different story.
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Quoting 1559. Neapolitan:
I don't know whether it's a new thing, a one-time thing, or maybe just something given to depressions that have formed from the remnants of previously-named storms, but the red circle seems like a great improvement over that clunky capital 'L'. The circle is more intuitive than the L, and it's certainly more helpful; after all, where exactly is the center of an L?

I hope they stick with it...

It's kind of big though, like they are saying "we think there is something going on around here in this big circle".
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seems like dorian is headed north wonder if he left alittle stink just offshore s.fl. for the future
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Quoting 1569. MahFL:

Is that the LLC I see due east of Jacksonville?!
EDIT: Yep, very strange.
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Water Vapor TD Dorian...

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First visible shows the naked swirl.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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