Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Why does everyone call the Mid-west storm a landcane?
I kinda don't understand. Well, I would agree that Tropical Storm Erin of 2007 was a landcane, but this storm, which formed inland, not over water, is not any sort of tropical cyclone. I think most of you would already understand, but facts are facts.
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Quoting 1676. TampaSpin:
Well that was a short lived Dorian again.....LOL....the Land Cane looks better.


you know better than to call Dorian dead...its like he reads this blog with shaking fists
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20138
Well that was a short lived Dorian again.....LOL....the Land Cane looks better.
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the landcane is quite impressive
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20138
1674. hydrus
Quoting 1670. AussieStorm:


Land-o-cane
That is a nasty lookin system..The Mets are saying are saying that the pattern is ripe for more of these.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
Quoting 1665. oceanspringsMS:


Things have definitely changed. Our "medic" was a white box that had First Aid printed on it. On my 1st day offshore, my safety orientation consisted of the tool pusher giving me a hard hat and safety glasses, then telling me to follow that guy and do what he tells you to do.


It's a kinder, gentler oilfield. I serve as the medic, rig secretary and resident weather-guesser. I've been lurking WU for over a year. There are a few pretty sharp prognosticators on this blog.
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1672. hydrus
Quoting 1665. oceanspringsMS:


Things have definitely changed. Our "medic" was a white box that had First Aid printed on it. On my 1st day offshore, my safety orientation consisted of the tool pusher giving me a hard hat and safety glasses, then telling me to follow that guy and do what he tells you to do.
Yep. Same out on the tug. If you get hurt 750 miles off New York there is no Doc on board. Stitches without anesthesia and finger splints were common place. If there was a life threatening injury , Coast Guard to the rescue.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
Quoting 1644. unknowncomic:
Looks like daddy blob is coming down to meet up with Dorian.


LOL
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20138
Quoting hydrus:
The one over the Mid-West.



Land-o-cane
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1669. RickWPB
Looking at the model page that 'Slu' posted, the BAMD model is always out to lunch.
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1668. GetReal
Quoting 1666. pcola57:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.
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Quoting 1637. VR46L:


Cough ,Sputter and Choke ...


ikr
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20138
1666. pcola57
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Quoting 1658. DocMurphy:


I feel you on that. I got a week off paid for Isaac last year which was nice. But as the medic, I get concerned about my guys if they try to rig down in a hurry. Evac = cool. Medevac = not cool.


Things have definitely changed. Our "medic" was a white box that had First Aid printed on it. On my 1st day offshore, my safety orientation consisted of the tool pusher giving me a hard hat and safety glasses, then telling me to follow that guy and do what he tells you to do.
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1664. GetReal


IMO it is possible that the MLL spin that Dorian is leaving behind may be a present to those looking for new near future development. The mid level flow may push this blob south, or SW.
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1663. barbamz
Wow, good old Dorian. Couldn't believe my eyes earlier this morning - and hello to everyone from cooler western Germany. I hope you are starting into a nice weekend.


Ejection of the low level circulation to the north can be watched very well on RGB.


And here is the TPW (click to enlarge).
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From Alert Weather Services (the service our company uses for rig weather forecasting)...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER-FORECASTER STACY STEWART. ALERT WEATHER SERVICES, INC. DOES NOT AGREE WITH NUMERICAL ADVISORY RE-ISSUANCE WITH AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN IS LOCATED IN A COL LOCATED BETWEEN A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSHPERIC TROUGH) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOCATED AND CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS, WHICH WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR 20 KNOTS, 100NM TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BY SUNDAY MORNING.


I like that they call out Stewart by name. I sense a bit of rivalry beteween these organizations. Alert Weather tends to get a little terse with NHC from time to time.
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1661. LargoFl
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1660. LargoFl
Quoting 1659. hydrus:
The one over the Mid-West.

wow big storm cell there alright
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1659. hydrus
Quoting 1656. flcanes:

What? The blob?
The one over the Mid-West.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
Quoting 1645. oceanspringsMS:


Did 6 evacs in the mid 70's when I worked as a roustabout and floorhand as a summer job for a drilling company that was then known as Loffland Bros., ended up becoming Nabors Drilling. Best part was getting put up in a hotel in Galveston, all expenses paid, for the duration of your hitch if you hit the timing right. Worse one was being the last group off, after getting the pipe out of the hole and tying everything off, at about 2:00 am in 40 MPH winds and driving rain. That was a long 45 minute copter ride.


I feel you on that. I got a week off paid for Isaac last year which was nice. But as the medic, I get concerned about my guys if they try to rig down in a hurry. Evac = cool. Medevac = not cool.
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GEOS east radar did not update in the last two hours so can't see convection trends...

From buoy observations that the center of circulation is well east of the fix I posted an hour ago, and north of the florida-georgia border. I doubt it will redevelop unless something opens up to allow the disturbance to cross Florida into the gulf.

Interestingly, the surface map shows a small low in the location of the "swirl" in addition to the TD Dorian just east of Freeport, Bahamas.

Surface Map Link
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1656. flcanes
Quoting 1643. hydrus:
Does look like a tropical cyclone.


What? The blob?
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Quoting 1628. Tropicsweatherpr:
First hint of a pattern change in the basin over the next week. 500mb ridge moves north towards Europe as lower pressures move in over the MDR. Maybe a slight reprieve in the trade winds but we have to see how the dry air does if it sticks around or not.
What does that mean in terms of the steering pattern, more chance of recurves or less?
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Quoting 1647. Pallis:
Actually both Greek and to a smaller extent Italian sailors played a role in shaping Florida's future prior to the War of Northern Aggression. They most certainly were involved, but anyone who came here later probably would not understand unless they were good at history. Yankee simply means someone born North of Bradenton, Florida.


"War of Northern Aggression." LOL Time to move on.
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1653. LargoFl
Quoting 1650. tornadodude:



I have Windows 8, wasn't sure about it at first, but I like it now. The desktop is exactly the same as Windows 7. The app features are actually pretty cool once you get to learn it. Good luck!
thanks..it will give me something else to do lol..to me its very different..but with this new puter..the graphics are so much better
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Wow, Missouri and Arkansas on Blobcon 5, that's wild.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2734
1651. LargoFl


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Quoting 1648. LargoFl:
good morning folk..coffee is perked..enjoy, went out last night and bought a new computer..it has this windows 8 on it..grrrr...time to relearn everything..if you have windows 7..stay there lol..me I like windows 7 better.



I have Windows 8, wasn't sure about it at first, but I like it now. The desktop is exactly the same as Windows 7. The app features are actually pretty cool once you get to learn it. Good luck!
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Good morning. Taking my kid to a Planetarium show but just paying homage to the resurrection of Dorian. Lol.
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1648. LargoFl
good morning folk..coffee is perked..enjoy, went out last night and bought a new computer..it has this windows 8 on it..grrrr...time to relearn everything..if you have windows 7..stay there lol..me I like windows 7 better.
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1647. Pallis
Quoting 1605. guygee:
Leave the Greek and Italian immigrants out of your senseless civil war. They were in Europe while "Yankees" and "Rebels" were slaughtering each other.
Actually both Greek and to a smaller extent Italian sailors played a role in shaping Florida's future prior to the War of Northern Aggression. They most certainly were involved, but anyone who came here later probably would not understand unless they were good at history. Yankee simply means someone born North of Bradenton, Florida.
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It's about to swallow Little Rock

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Quoting 1634. DocMurphy:


I'm just trying to make it to Monday, Hydrus. An oil rig gets pretty old when you're approaching the end of a hitch. A little insanity can keep you sane from time to time. Glad we're getting out of this hitch without any storm evacs.


Did 6 evacs in the mid 70's when I worked as a roustabout and floorhand as a summer job for a drilling company that was then known as Loffland Bros., ended up becoming Nabors Drilling. Best part was getting put up in a hotel in Galveston, all expenses paid, for the duration of your hitch if you hit the timing right. Worse one was being the last group off, after getting the pipe out of the hole and tying everything off, at about 2:00 am in 40 MPH winds and driving rain. That was a long 45 minute copter ride.
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Quoting 1641. GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like daddy blob is coming down to meet up with Dorian.
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1643. hydrus
Does look like a tropical cyclone.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
Hmm... the hollow circle got smaller..
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
1640. hydrus
Quoting 1634. DocMurphy:


I'm just trying to make it to Monday, Hydrus. An oil rig gets pretty old when you're approaching the end of a hitch. A little insanity can keep you sane from time to time. Glad we're getting out of this hitch without any storm evacs.
I hear ya. I worked an ocean going tug for a long time, 20 days on 10 off ( if we were lucky ) and good weather was always welcome. Those stints out at sea seemed a lot longer when it was rough.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
all I got to say as I depart for Orlando shortly is...YAY FOR NAKED SWIRLS!, DIE, THUNDERSTORM DORIAN DIE...LOL...
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1638. SLU
At least there's a storm to track.

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1637. VR46L
Quoting 1635. MisterPerfect:


Cough ,Sputter and Choke ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6901
Oh my goodness...dead gum CMC coming up with ANOTHER TX TROPICAL STORM. I saw the way it was moving...and its to TX. That CMC must realllllyyyy want this...that about 7 times ive seen this from THIS model.
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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20138
Quoting 1632. hydrus:
Its all good Murph..I am a hard workin individual that needs a laugh to heal sometimes..:)


I'm just trying to make it to Monday, Hydrus. An oil rig gets pretty old when you're approaching the end of a hitch. A little insanity can keep you sane from time to time. Glad we're getting out of this hitch without any storm evacs.
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1633. hydrus
Quoting 1624. CaribBoy:


Yes that's ridiculous.
That is heading in our direction, and there are more cookin..So we have to watch.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
1632. hydrus
Quoting 1630. DocMurphy:
Apparently I've woken up with a raging case of the smart alecks this morning. My apologies to all.
Its all good Murph..I am a hard workin individual that needs a laugh to heal sometimes..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
1631. hydrus
Quoting 1625. DocMurphy:


You can either learn to love the new circle, or you can go to L.
Lol..Away with me halo lookin circle as I embrace L ..:)..im old school dammitt..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21254
Apparently I've woken up with a raging case of the smart alecks this morning. My apologies to all.
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Quoting 1627. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

7:15 am (11:15 GMT)

A sailboat anchored just south of the boat ramps sits on choppy waters of the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter steals one of the peanuts laid out for the squirrels in Bicentennial Park. He carefully breaks open the shell, removes the skin, then eats the peanut! He prefers dry roasted, unsalted.

Recorded a grand total of 0.18" of rain yesterday, not exactly a major event - though I saw Ft. Lauderdale and the inland areas got doused again.





Go HERE to see my rainfall log for the year.

PS - y'all quit making fun of Dorian, it's my stepson's name, yer gonna give 'im a complex!
He is so cute.:D
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4348
First hint of a pattern change in the basin over the next week. 500mb ridge moves north towards Europe as lower pressures move in over the MDR. Maybe a slight reprieve in the trade winds but we have to see how the dry air does if it sticks around or not.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.