Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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still gonna rain though..

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
Poll.....
Will 91L become a TD/TS in the next 24hrs?
a) Yes
b) No
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Cloud coverage increasing here in Martin County but I don't expect much rain. 91L doesn't like land very much.
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Quoting 65. Grothar:
Anybody notice the blob down in one of those bays?




91L really teasing the coast


Blob alert! blob alert!

I wonder if the NHC has made the term blob official yet ? :)
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It looks like there is just enough moisture to allow 91L to put on a show today/tonight before exiting stage right.



There are even some rain bands starting to form to the north.
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Using base velocity radar from Melbourne an Miami, along with RGB sat imagery... the "middle" (not sure center is appropriate) of 91L looks like it is about 40mi offshore between WPB and Port Saint Lucie.
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i see the center of ex dorian just off vero bch seems stationary and getting a bit stronger west winds are increasing here in e cen fl.
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Quoting 59. tornadodude:
I fly out to Philly on Wednesday to do my camera interview for an episode of Weather Caught on Camera, on The Weather Channel.I will let y'all know when it airs! I haven't flown since 2009, and I've never been to Philly, so I'm excited. This is the video they bought from me:

(I'm the one running into the dust devil) lol

Philly is an awesome, but very large city! Make sure you stop by Independence Hall!
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Quoting 68. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice new tools are always nice


Nice.
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Quoting 65. Grothar:
Anybody notice the blob down in one of those bays?




91L really teasing the coast

yep turns away as it comes your way
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Quoting 53. RickWPB:


I can't believe they're calling it 'HUGO'!

Sent from iPhone
Quoting 53. RickWPB:


I can't believe they're calling it 'HUGO'!

Sent from iPhone


I like it the name that is


interesting of prediction see if that happens


nice new tools are always nice
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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice the blob down in one of those bays?






Is that a blob alert??
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Just a trend..dont shoot the messenger..:)

00z GFS Ensemble Spread showed almost absolutely nothing in relation to ex dorian..

18 hours


30 hours


Now the 06z GFS Ensemble Spread
18 hours


24 hours




Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15699
Anybody notice the blob down in one of those bays?




91L really teasing the coast

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
Looking at the radar and vis loops, looking like another very broad rotation starting due East of the Central Coast of Florida (due east of Cape Canaveral).

However, air pressure rising at this Buoy 20 miles East of the Cape:

tation 41009
NDBC
Location: 28.523N 80.184W
Date: Fri, 02 Aug 2013 13:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 5.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (64°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 70.0 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F

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Quoting 44. SLU:
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013

We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

(as of 2 August 2013)

18-8-3
I don't like to see this. I was hoping they may all be like Dorian this year.
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ex Dorian..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15699
Thanks Dr Masters.....Watching Barometer Bob video now. 91l still alive and well/notsowell?
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60. Skyepony (Mod)
That low that has been harassing India..they designated it but NAVY didn't touch it. It's mostly been over land.

Extreme Weather in India on Friday, 02 August, 2013 at 07:40 (07:40 AM) UTC.
Description
A storm destroyed houses, rubber and areca plantations worth crores of rupees in Albady, Nagur and Kodi villages at Kundapur taluk in Udupi district on Thursday. According to the Kundapur Taluk Office, as many as 17 houses were fully damaged, while 80 houses were partially damaged in Albady village in the storm that hit the villages around 3 a.m. Electricity poles and high tension wires of Mangalore Electricity Supply Company (Mescom) were completely damaged due to the storm, and the electricity supply to Albady and nearby villages have been affected. A temple was also damaged in the village as tiles of its roof had been blown away. The A.B. Shetty Memorial School was also partially damaged. The rubber plantation belonging to the president of Kundapur Taluk Panchayat Deepika Shetty was partially damaged. Arecanut and coconut plantations in the area were partially damaged. Three wells were completely damaged in Albady. As many as five houses were damaged in Kodi village, while 22 houses were partially damaged in Nagur-Kirimanjeshwara village. Kundapur Tahsildar Gayatri Naik said that eight families, whose houses had been completely damaged, had been shifted to the Ganji Kendra (gruel centre) in Government High School at Albady. All these eight families had been given cheques of Rs. 35,000 each under the Calamities Relief Fund (CRF). Nearly 80 persons had their meals at the Ganji Kendra on Wednesday. Many arecanut, coconut, and rubber trees had been damaged. Mescom personnel installed 15 electricity poles in an effort to provide electricity as a high tension wire sustained damage in the storm.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
I fly out to Philly on Wednesday to do my camera interview for an episode of Weather Caught on Camera, on The Weather Channel.I will let y'all know when it airs! I haven't flown since 2009, and I've never been to Philly, so I'm excited. This is the video they bought from me:

(I'm the one running into the dust devil) lol

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Good Morning, WU!

Conditions from Vero Beach Airport -
83° F, Sunny, 8mph NW Winds, Pressure 1015.7mb (rising) and 77% Humidity (falling)
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57. Skyepony (Mod)
Vehicle Accident in Thailand on Friday, 02 August, 2013 at 05:26 (05:26 AM) UTC.
Description
Eleven crew members from a Bangladeshi cargo ship were missing Thursday after their vessel capsized in the Andaman Sea, sparking a rescue mission, Thai officials said. The ship, which was heading for Bangladesh's port of Chittagong, ran into trouble early Thursday in rough seas some 32 kilometres (20 miles) off an island near Phuket in Thailand's south. Six of the crew were rescued, five of them by a passing ship and the other by a navy helicopter, according to Phuket marine police. But fears were growing for the 11 missing after several hours without a sighting. "There were 17 crew in total," Major Chatchai Sakdee added, revising down early reports of 28 on board and 18 rescued after initial "confusion... from information from different sources". Marine police Lieutenant Colonel Prasert Srikunrat said "very poor visibility" was hampering the search for the missing. The Thai navy said the missing were in a lifeboat which was set adrift by the high seas. "We cannot find them yet after two trips by helicopters, and one by an airplane... there's heavy rain and poor visibility," Thammawut Marlaisukarin, a captain in the Thai navy, told AFP, confirming the figures. "The ship capsized in rough seas - there are five-metre high waves in the Andaman Sea near Phuket now," he added. Phuket is Thailand's biggest island and one of its most popular tourist destinations.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
finally...we have closure...
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55. Skyepony (Mod)
Tornado in USA on Friday, 02 August, 2013 at 03:41 (03:41 AM) UTC.
Description
We've learned a possible tornado touched down in Twin Bridges during a severe thunderstorm on Thursday afternoon. Madison County Sheriff's Office Public Information Officer Steve DiGiovanna tells NBC Montana the National Weather Service is heading down to the town Friday morning to investigate. He says someone took a video of the storm, and he witnessed what appeared to be a tornado funnel touching the ground. The possible tornado may be responsible for some of the damage that tore through the town, DiGiovanna said. A veterinary clinic outside of town had the roof ripped off, he said. The thunderstorm left the entire town and surrounding area without power. DiGiovanna said at least six high-voltage power poles are completely knocked down, and power will not be restored for at least 24 hours- if not two to three days. Other damage to the town includes roofs ripped off of several buildings, such as the aforementioned vet clinic and the public works building. Viewers who sent NBC Montana photos of the damage report buildings in town seem to have had roofs missing as well. At least 100 trees are down, DiGiovanna said, and several buildings suffered structural damage from them. Luckily, no one was hurt, DiGiovanna said. Right now, the fire department, sheriff's office, Disaster Emergency Services and dozens of volunteers are working to clear up as much of the fallen trees as they can. He said at least 100 people chipped in to help, and it was great to see the community come together during the disaster. NBC Montana is working to get the latest details on this developing story, and will post updates here and on our Facebook page.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
54. Skyepony (Mod)
Flash Flood in USA on Friday, 02 August, 2013 at 03:29 (03:29 AM) UTC.
Description
Several flash flood warnings were in effect Thursday evening across eastern Utah, including one for the Seeley burn scar in Huntington Canyon. Mud flows reported on Highway 31 through the canyon have caused authorities to close it until the threat of flash floods has passed and cleanup crews can begin clearing the road. Another flash flood warning was issued for north-central Sanpete County, particularly for the wood hollow burn scar.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hurricane Outlook Hybrid Weather Model Debuts


Excerpt:

Coastal Carolina University professors announced the launch of the new Hurricane Genesis and Outlook (HUGO) Project on Thursday. The new weather model will combine historic climate and hurricane data to project tropical systems' landfalls during hurricane season.

The computer model has the capability to forecast storm landfalls for an entire season in a long-term outlook, but it can also give an immediate storm forecast for any tropical storm or hurricane threatening the U.S., giving it a special hybrid look at tropical weather.

As part of the announcement, Dr. Len Pietrafesa, Burroughs and Chapin Scholar at CCU and one of the developers of the project, said the data from the new weather model suggests there will be one landfall each in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Eastern Seaboard before the 2013 Atlantic season ends.


I can't believe they're calling it 'HUGO'!

Sent from iPhone
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Quoting 50. RitaEvac:


AC fixed?


Not completely. He came by and did something and I can run it for an hour and then turn it off, can't run it when no ones here. Now needs new coils.
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Quoting 42. Grothar:


Why don't you just put a pillow over my face and get it over with.


Aww, Gro. I did make you five grain cereal and oatmeal! But don't anyone tell Pat I forgot the shrimp!
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Quoting 35. aislinnpaps:


Sorry, have a headache. That's my temp here this morning.


AC fixed?
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Dorian trying to come back to life despite all the meteorologists that said he was dead and gone.

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@NWSMiami
The remnants of Dorian will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm development through this evening. #flwx

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting 26. RitaEvac:


Will you please explain?


Ha! :)
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46. Skyepony (Mod)
Lost another wildfirefighter..

Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Friday, 02 August, 2013 at 03:25 (03:25 AM) UTC.
Description
One firefighter was killed and a second was injured by part of a falling tree while battling a wildfire near Sisters Thursday morning, according to officials with Deschutes National Forest. John Hammack, 60, of Madras, died and 45-year-old Norman Crawford, 45, of Sisters was injured while taking out trees at a fire line in the Mt. Washington Wilderness, near Dugout Lake, in the Sisters Ranger District. "The injuries occurred as the tree fallers worked to suppress a fire caused by a lightning storm, which began early yesterday [Wednesday] afternoon and continued through the evening," said Jean Nelson-Dean, a spokesperson for the Deschutes National Forest. The pair worked for R&K Water Services out of Bonney Lake, WA. Crawford was taken to the St. Charles Medical Center for treatment, then released Thursday afternoon. More than 4,000 people have been fighting fires in Oregon burning on about 40,000 acres. Lightning touched off the largest fires last weekend in southwestern Oregon forests. An early-morning barrage of lightning east of the Cascade Range on Thursday morning also touched off dozens of smaller wildfires.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
45. SLU
Quoting 44. SLU:
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013

We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

(as of 2 August 2013)

18-8-3


I expect to hear the backlash from some bloggers about a bust season soon given the latest information this morning.
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44. SLU
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013

We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

(as of 2 August 2013)

18-8-3
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43. Skyepony (Mod)
Tornado in USA on Friday, 02 August, 2013 at 03:05 (03:05 AM) UTC.
Description
The National Weather Service Jacksonville confirms to WOKV that an EF2 tornado hit the Arlington area during Thursday’s bad storms, touching down for about one half mile on Monument, just off Derringer. Warning Coordination Meteorologist Al Sandrik surveyed the damage on the scene, and he tells us winds were generally 100-110 mph, although they peaked as high as 125 mph. “An EF2 tornado is getting right up in to the Category 3 hurricane range, but just for a couple of seconds, not the hours in duration you’d see with a hurricane,” Sandrik says. He says an apartment complex in the area sustained some bad damage. In fact, the damage to that building’s walls and roof is what led Sandrik to classify the tornado as EF2- the first one to hit Duval County since one shot out of Tropical Storm Bonnie. And to the people who experienced the storm first hand, the rating comes as little surprise.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
Quoting 21. aislinnpaps:
Thanks, Doc.

80 degrees here already with a high of 98 expected. And Dorian still hanging in there. He really wants to go for the record of how many times can something be dropped for dead and come back.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissant
French breakfast puffs, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, Toasted cinnamon brioche with lavender honey, toasted baguette with goat cheese and roasted peppers, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice and hot chocolate. Enjoy!



Why don't you just put a pillow over my face and get it over with???

Thanks for the update Doc. It's really a nice day in Fort Lauderdale. Bright sunshine and clouds over the ocean.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
Thanks doctor masters!
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Wettest July ever recorded in Puerto Rico. 14 inches recorded in San Juan. U.S.V.I. and BVI possibly near records also.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Sorry, have a headache. That's my temp here this morning.


I hope you feel better really soon.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
so finally they have downgraded the season which was to be expected based on this year so far......hey can someone post that red and orange graph showing that we are not at peak yet:)...too funny.
The reality is no one knows what a hurricane season will hold its just a guess which is becoming increasingly obvious but that keeps it exciting! The link though between melting ice caps and stronger hurricanes just doesnt seem to be making sense...yet anyway.
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Quoting 27. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gro would call that the attack breakfast

might want to add a bowl of prunes and a serving of no flavor yogurt to that just for gro


creamy oatmeal with blueberries, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice are all just for Gro. Just don't anyone tell Mrs. Gro about the cheese danishes!
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Thanks,Doc,even if it does have a comeback,its getting swept out to sea,These deep troughs are going to cause a lot of problems with any systems that try to cross the Atlantic.
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Quoting 26. RitaEvac:


Will you please explain?


Sorry, have a headache. That's my temp here this morning.
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Thank You Dr. Masters. In terms of the short-term prognosis from CSU, that is typical for this August period as we usually see the big-uptic in the last week of August going into September; happens like clockwork every year when we get a nice set of waves emerging off the African Coast.

Also (for the newer members who are not here to troll but to contribute), even if CSU was to lower their "guesstimate" come mid-August in terms of possible numbers a) we are still in an above-average multi-decadal cycle, b) we are currently ahead of the normal averages with a "D" storm before August, c) Dr. Master's noted a few days ago that Sahel rainfall levels will reduce dust levels (Sal) for the peak of the season, and d) only one or two bad major hurricanes for the Caribbean or US over the next 8 weeks will define this particular season regardless of the ultimate numbers by the end.

Don't let the early-season "bust-casters" get under your skin....Just ignore them.

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Quoting 28. CybrTeddy:
Starting to look like the latter two weeks of August will be very active as the MJO phase comes around, dust begins to settle, etc. Conditions look primed for a very active peak hurricane season, similar to 2007 and 2010, starting August 15th. Until then, expect a lot of bellyaching about how this season is a dud and we will have to wait until September to see Erin.

Lol yeah I know

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Quoting ncstorm:
However, I will say that Stacy Stewart from the NHC said last night on the Bob Barometer Show that the season will be quite busy..


Yes he did that. If anyone would like to hear what he said, just click play.

W atch live streaming video from wrbn at livestream.com

oh and you'll hear me just before the end of the show :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting 22. waveRoller:
If 91L developes we could see some sizable surf on the Central FL coast! Would be like last years Beryl. And that was fun. oops forgot I wasnt on a surf blog sorry

Which it probably won't it's just redeveloped back to invest too late if it moved and stayed with the ULL then it would have lived a bit longer at least to retain TD status for one last time
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It will be a welcome sight to me to watch xDorianBlob91L pack up and leave. It has been entertaining, frustrating, humorous and annoying. Tony Chachere's apparently CAN make anything taste good. MMMmmmMMM...yummy crow.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
29. SLU
Quoting 24. CaribBoy:


DEPRESSING lol.... but 2010 did the same before explosion after mid month.


Yeah. 2010 did not take off until August 21st after numerous calls on the blog that the season was overhyped and nothing but a bust.
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Starting to look like the latter two weeks of August will be very active as the MJO phase comes around, dust begins to settle, etc. Conditions look primed for a very active peak hurricane season, similar to 2007 and 2010, starting August 15th. Until then, expect a lot of bellyaching about how this season is a dud and we will have to wait until September to see Erin.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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