Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 114. Hurricanes305:
CSU still predicting active season 18/8/3 I'm expecting a big August once we get past the 8th. Already waves over the Eastern Atlantic continues to produce moderate to heavy convection in spite of SAL and unfavorable upper level winds.

Yeah I know right

Quoting 115. VR46L:


Hmmm see that wave in the BOC is that also Ex Dorian ?




Yeah a small part of it

Quoting 116. Grothar:
Holding together well.


Very very well

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It is still bright and sunny on Fort Lauderdale beach.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Quoting 116. Grothar:
Holding together well.



That is excellent news, but what about the wave over Africa?
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Quoting 117. SouthernIllinois:

Panama Red Panama Red...he's steal your woman then he'll rob your head.

Panama Red. LMAO.
Ahhh the memories..:)..pffft.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546
Quoting 118. LargoFl:
what does this one model see that the others dont?...


Did you check your mail earlier, Largo?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Convergence has definitely looked better than ever.

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My, everyone is so poetic this morning.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
what does this one model see that the others dont?...
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Holding together well.

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115. VR46L
Quoting 90. wunderkidcayman:
interesting things one new surface map




Hmmm see that wave in the BOC is that also Ex Dorian ?



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CSU still predicting active season 18/8/3 I'm expecting a big August once we get past the 8th. Already waves over the Eastern Atlantic continues to produce moderate to heavy convection in spite of SAL and unfavorable upper level winds.
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There once was a storm named Dorian
That fell apart, but some thought he'd form again -
Convecting at night, but a wave in the light,
It put a kink in everyone's forecastin'!


Might get some rain if these storms rotate down far enough...
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Quoting 107. LargoFl:
what happens If he misses the trough?.....

BAMD would be the only winner
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Quoting 101. Grothar:


I didn't know that. I would think they got hit a lot.

Panama Blob
Panama Blob
Its more interesting than my regular job....
Panama Blob
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It's getting very cloudy in Port St.Lucie/Ft. Pierce but light winds.

No rain yet but I guess it's coming.
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what happens If he misses the trough?.....
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Quoting 101. Grothar:


I didn't know that. I would think they got hit a lot.


Their latitude and geography makes it tough, combined with the natural tendencies for storms to move poleward.
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After further examination on the vis and rgb loops of Dorian LLC is making a loop and is currently moving SSW it should eventually move E then N unless if it continues SSW to landfall
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D is for Dorian.
D is for Dead.
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Quoting IKE:

No. Not happening. Next.


I agree... just watch this loop

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Quoting 91. Stoopid1:
Grothar, post 83; Interesting that they have the area near Panama with a high chance. Fun bit; 1969's Hurricane Martha is the only storm to hit Panama.


I didn't know that. I would think they got hit a lot.
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Quoting LargoFl:
i dunno, sure looks like its stopped going northward...


Looks like the convection has stopped but the wave axis has continued going north

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Quoting 77. AussieStorm:
Poll.....
Will 91L become a TD/TS in the next 24hrs?
a) Yes
b) No
A..Minimal. I meant yes..:)
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Quoting 45. SLU:


I expect to hear the backlash from some bloggers about a bust season soon given the latest information this morning.


Mmm only 3 majors is GOOD.
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Quoting 85. Grothar:


No just blob watch for right now.
Good morning Santharian weather God.
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Appears to be some organization happening with 91L. Can't completely discount it yet with good conditions still in place. That said, NHC's probability of 30% seems right on.
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95. IKE

Quoting AussieStorm:
Poll.....
Will 91L become a TD/TS in the next 24hrs?
a) Yes
b) No
No. Not happening. Next.
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Quoting 74. 53rdWeatherRECON:




It looks like there is just enough moisture to allow 91L to put on a show today/tonight before exiting stage right.



There are even some rain bands starting to form to the north.


Moving NW or N?
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Unsettled Weather Across Central Australia
In late July 2013, a low pressure system off Australia’s southeast coast and moist onshore winds combined to create unsettled weather across central Australia – and a striking image of a broad cloud band across the stark winter landscape.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image on July 22 at 01:05 UTC (10:35 a.m. Australian Central Standard Time). To the west of the low pressure trough the skies are clear and dry. To the east, the broad band of bright white clouds obscures the landscape. The system brought wind, precipitation and cooler temperatures to the region.
Image Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
i dunno, sure looks like its stopped going northward..notice how some of it is taking the florida straights...
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Grothar, post 83; Interesting that they have the area near Panama with a high chance. Fun bit; 1969's Hurricane Martha is the only storm to hit Panama.
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interesting things one new surface map


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Quoting 77. AussieStorm:
Poll.....
Will 91L become a TD/TS in the next 24hrs?
a) Yes
b) No
No.
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Quoting 78. MisterPerfect:
still gonna rain though..

day effect is going to kill it and whatever is left just drifts nne after that
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546
By: Glenn Glazer
With the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian just off of Florida's east coast today, our rain chances will increase quite a bit. Isolated rainfall is possible this morning, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible from late morning through this afternoon. Some rainfall could be heavy. Highs will be near 90 degrees and skies will become mostly cloudy to overcast. Winds will shift from northeast to northwest later today.
There is a less likely scenario in which the remnants of Dorian stay a little farther offshore, and drier air moves in across South Florida, in which case we would see a lot less rainfall today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through this evening and then isolated rainfall is possible overnight. Lows will be in the mid to low 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Saturday and Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days. Most of the rainfall will be during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs will be in the low 90s.
Monday and Tuesday, partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the low 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Wednesday and Thursday, partly sunny with highs in the low 90s. Isolated rainfall is possible.

This is called C.Y.A.


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Quoting 67. AussieStorm:


Is that a blob alert??


No just blob watch for right now.

(by the way, you sound just like my cousins in around Sydney.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
one lone model says differently.............
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Probably all those cooler temps in the Eastern US is from troughing, and then in the South is the rain from all the hurricanes that will be hitting us.

well ok that picture isn't working for some reason.
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Quoting 77. AussieStorm:
Poll.....
Will 91L become a TD/TS in the next 24hrs?
a) Yes
b) No


I usually dont do polls on Fridays..:)

but A) yes
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14612
Rain moving in now!:)
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Quoting 3. Skyepony:
Sprinkled in Melbourne from ex-Dorian. Winds are light & from the north here, gusting to 5mph in the last hour.

Gust to 5 mph....Stay safe and Godspeed Skye.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546
still gonna rain though..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.