Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its deciding what to do which is not much

Oh just die already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lol
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Link

advanced early warning system
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Quoting 168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ingrid that's the one to watch for

Yeah that's what I'm thinking too
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Quoting 170. mikatnight:
Gonna run outside for a bit. Assume Grothar's off taking a picture and Patrap's working on his next poetic endeavor. Oh, by the way Pat, mine had more rhymes...just sayin'


Is all good, were all Healthy, Alive and blogging.




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Judge for yourself what direction X-Dorian is moving. Seems to be rather stationary rotating precipitation to the S.W. around a larger circulation.
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Quoting 162. stoormfury:
COULD THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BE THE PRECURSOR OF ERIN

Maybe, maybe not it just depends on what it does
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Quoting 163. indianrivguy:


Mornin' Devil Dog!


Morning over dere irg.

Semper Fi Friday.

And since the Heat is on..one for the Ears maybe ?


The future's open wide
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Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah and I think we will see dust drop out faster than what people think


That is what seems to be happening it pulled N now SSW making loops
its deciding what to do which is not much
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Gonna run outside for a bit. Assume Grothar's off taking a picture and Patrap's working on his next poetic endeavor. Oh, by the way Pat, mine had more rhymes...just sayin'
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Quoting 156. stoormfury:
The SAL is not as dense as it appears on sat photos. The atmosphere in the islands is not as hazy as we have experience in the past outbreaks of the SAL. Looking at the latest satellite pictures, it appears that the SAL is weakening with the denser areas into the Caribbean basin. This could be the result of the strong north east trades blowing across the island chain. Also looking at the SAL forecast, this maybe the last serious SAL outbreak this hurricane season.

Yeah and I think we will see dust drop out faster than what people think

Quoting 159. RitaEvac:
May get pulled north then make a loopty loop back around west into Florida

That is what seems to be happening it pulled N now SSW making loops
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Quoting 158. opal92nwf:

Yes, enough of the appetizers! I'm ready for the entrees!
ingrid that's the one to watch for
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Enjoyed the call in interview on the Barometer Bob Show with Stacy Stewart, Senior Hurricane Specialist at the NHC, ( Every wishcasters favorite forecaster ) He has worked at a lot of cool places and a navy reservist with tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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Quoting 145. Grothar:


I guess you missed the lessons last year. I will have to put the entire chart in my blog, but here is a sample

BlobCon 1 to 5

GroCon 1 to 5 (for serious situations)

I hear GroCon 5 is bad real bad


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COULD THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BE THE PRECURSOR OF ERIN
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BREAKING: US State Dept. issues worldwide travel alert for US citizens through August 31 due to unspecified Al-Qaeda threat

By Catherine Chomiak and M. Alex Johnson, NBC News
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Quoting 154. VR46L:


Hmmm I see Dust eating it



and its even now showing up in Mid and Upper levels




Nah more like it eating the dust and making environment moist while keeping itself moist
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May get pulled north then make a loopty loop back around west into Florida
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Quoting 104. GeorgiaStormz:
D is for Dorian.
D is for Dead.

Yes, enough of the appetizers! I'm ready for the entrees!
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Quoting 140. Grothar:



Go ahead, Thrawst, just slash and run.



lol.

running from your blob.
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The SAL is not as dense as it appears on sat photos. The atmosphere in the islands is not as hazy as we have experience in the past outbreaks of the SAL. Looking at the latest satellite pictures, it appears that the SAL is weakening with the denser areas into the Caribbean basin. This could be the result of the strong north east trades blowing across the island chain. Also looking at the SAL forecast, this maybe the last serious SAL outbreak this hurricane season.
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Quoting 137. Hurricanes305:
SAL is already thinning out. The wave is still generating a lot of convection even in the face of dry air. It may get a yellow circle for persistent. It will eat a good chunk of it moistening up the path.



Elsewhere 91L is unlikely to develop as it will move into high winds shear.



Shear is quite high over most of the Atlantic for now...

Agreed

Quoting 139. AussieStorm:


ummm.... you're seeing something I am not here...


Yeah you have not examined it as closely as I have anyway it doesn't matter it's still stormy conditions for E coast of Florida and NW Bahamas
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154. VR46L
Quoting 137. Hurricanes305:
SAL is already thinning out. The wave is still generating a lot of convection even in the face of dry air. It may get a yellow circle for persistent. It will eat a good chunk of it moistening up the path.



Elsewhere 91L is unlikely to develop as it will move into high winds shear.



Shear is quite high over most of the Atlantic for now...


Hmmm I see Dust eating it



and its even now showing up in Mid and Upper levels



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153. 7544
Quoting 139. AussieStorm:


ummm.... you're seeing something I am not here...



looks like thge blob want to turn west with that jog?
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Quoting 125. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is excellent news, but what about the wave over Africa?


Thumbs up!!!
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Fresca "Alert" MODE.


Mint Green-- Low

Emerald-- Med

Aqua-- High


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.
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Intensity models are lowering expectations..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
He is moving NNW at this moment rain may clip rain especially if it gets a little closer to the Coast and rain shield expands. Otherwise its a sunny day in South Florida. You would never know a developing surface low was to our east.
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Quoting 136. DocMurphy:


Grothar, perhaps you should catalog your blob watches and make it an official product. As NHC will assign "Invest 91L", you could perhaps have "Blob G1". Just sayin'.


I guess you missed the lessons last year. I will have to put the entire chart in my blog, but here is a sample

BlobCon 1 to 5

GroCon 1 to 5 (for serious situations)

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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
Quoting 140. Grothar:



Go ahead, Thrawst, just slash and run.


Well, it is a forward slash. :)
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
022315-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
412 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE EAST COAST METROS TODAY...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...AS WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TODAY.

WIND: WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AT ISOLATED LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 136. DocMurphy:


Grothar, perhaps you should catalog your blob watches and make it an official product. As NHC will assign "Invest 91L", you could perhaps have "Blob G1". Just sayin'.
LOL..thats a GREAT idea!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 127. Thrawst:
/



Go ahead, Thrawst, just slash and run.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
After further examination on the vis and rgb loops of Dorian LLC is making a loop and is currently moving SSW it should eventually move E then N unless if it continues SSW to landfall


ummm.... you're seeing something I am not here...

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting 117. SouthernIllinois:

Panama Red Panama Red...he's steal your woman then he'll rob your head.

Panama Red. LMAO.


New Riders of the Purple Bud err Sage..
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SAL is already thinning out. The wave is still generating a lot of convection even in the face of dry air. It may get a yellow circle for persistent. It will eat a good chunk of it moistening up the path.



Elsewhere 91L is unlikely to develop as it will move into high winds shear.



Shear is quite high over most of the Atlantic for now...
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Quoting 85. Grothar:


No just blob watch for right now.

(by the way, you sound just like my cousins in around Sydney.


Grothar, perhaps you should catalog your blob watches and make it an official product. As NHC will assign "Invest 91L", you could perhaps have "Blob G1". Just sayin'.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Quoting 126. Grothar:
It is still bright and sunny on Fort Lauderdale beach.



What, you don't own a camera? Come on big guy, exercise that index finger for us!









Nooooo...not that finger...
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133. VR46L
Quoting 118. LargoFl:
what does this one model see that the others dont?...
Quoting 128. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah a small part of it

>


Could it be that , that model is picking up the energy in the BOC ...

...hey thats Cool so part of EX Dorian made it into the Gulf .... HAHA
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panama blob=rainy season in full swing.
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Quoting 121. Grothar:


Did you check your mail earlier, Largo?
yeah im watching this one closely today, something just isnt right..earlier 4 models said landfal..we surely dont need added rainfall right now..not 6-8 inches or more if it stalls out overland while missing the trough..which IS still a possibility til it flies northward
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 119. Grothar:
My, everyone is so poetic this morning.


Just trying to class-up the place a bit...
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 114. Hurricanes305:
CSU still predicting active season 18/8/3 I'm expecting a big August once we get past the 8th. Already waves over the Eastern Atlantic continues to produce moderate to heavy convection in spite of SAL and unfavorable upper level winds.

Yeah I know right

Quoting 115. VR46L:


Hmmm see that wave in the BOC is that also Ex Dorian ?




Yeah a small part of it

Quoting 116. Grothar:
Holding together well.


Very very well

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.