Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 225. HuracandelCaribe:
I don't see the big fuzz about this SAL dust outbreak. I live in PR and I was expecting visibility to go down to 5 miles but at this moment visibility still over 10 miles. I have seen much much worst.

I know
people think this is a lot of dust but its not plus it's also weakening
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Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:
"There were five hurricane seasons with characteristics most similar to what we
observed in June-July 2013. The best analog years that we could find for the 2013
hurricane season were 1952, 1966, 1996, 2007, and 2008. We anticipate that 2013
seasonal hurricane activity will have activity that is slightly above the average of these
five analog years. We believe that the remainder of 2013 will have above-average
activity in the Atlantic basin."







<-----------------------------


Interesting, "the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008."
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Really need to step back and look at the entire circulation. Large broad circulation that needs to work itself all the way down to the surface.
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I don't see the big fuzz about this SAL dust outbreak. I live in PR and I was expecting visibility to go down to 5 miles but at this moment visibility still over 10 miles. I have seen much much worst.
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Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:
"There were five hurricane seasons with characteristics most similar to what we
observed in June-July 2013. The best analog years that we could find for the 2013
hurricane season were 1952, 1966, 1996, 2007, and 2008. We anticipate that 2013
seasonal hurricane activity will have activity that is slightly above the average of these
five analog years. We believe that the remainder of 2013 will have above-average
activity in the Atlantic basin."







<-----------------------------


Those years were not good for us here in Cayman more so years 2007 and 2008
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Pressure steady but a little more gusty east of Cape Kennedy than this morning:

Station 41009
NDBC
Location: 28.523N 80.184W
Date: Fri, 02 Aug 2013 15:20:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.04 in
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 73.0 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
Typhoon Vamei, a favorite of mine from an intrigue standpoint;

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221. VR46L
Quoting 210. RitaEvac:


Only to go into MX, sigh...


Ah keep hope !!
you might get your rainmaker yet ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
Quoting 202. LargoFl:


Ex-Dorian kinda looks like Ireland in that image. 40 shades of green for Florida.
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Quoting 159. RitaEvac:
May get pulled north then make a loopty loop back around west into Florida

That would explain The Old Farmer's Almanac. Hurricane Threat for Florida on August 5th-7th. Regardless of what happens now, they were pretty darn close.......to have predicted that a year ago!~
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
Quoting 175. Patrap:


Is all good, were all Healthy, Alive and blogging.






Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Starting to get cloudy in my part of Port St. Lucie. A little bit of wind also and some sprinkles. Clouds moving in from NE, so looks like the center is still south of me. ExDorian looks like it is still in the same place as early this morning when I checked (around 5am). Is it moving at all or is stationary? Don't like stationary over warm Gulf Stream waters! Oooh, wind picking up with a really gray cloud overhead. Maybe more rain this afternoon.
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Quoting 207. allancalderini:
Nop I didn`t see seafood and that is my weakness ;)

Yes, those were mouth-watering, but seafood I do like better usually.
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"There were five hurricane seasons with characteristics most similar to what we
observed in June-July 2013. The best analog years that we could find for the 2013
hurricane season were 1952, 1966, 1996, 2007, and 2008. We anticipate that 2013
seasonal hurricane activity will have activity that is slightly above the average of these
five analog years. We believe that the remainder of 2013 will have above-average
activity in the Atlantic basin."







<-----------------------------
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Quoting 193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



the I storm is always around that time of year for a gulf coast hit east may be another late season threat like last year as well

we simply have to wait too see how this is all going to play itself out

It will be very interesting. Let's see, it's been 9 years since a Cat 4+ US landfall. I wonder if we will get one this year. Always have to be on the lookout, especially since we are in the active period of hurricane activity that started in 1995.

BTW, 2007's Gabrielle was a poor thing.
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Quoting 158. opal92nwf:

Yes, enough of the appetizers! I'm ready for the entrees!
At least one of those is going to be a fail.My peak Ingrid is the least threatening I name I ever heard.I am going to eat crow if she is a major.Remember my words people.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4458
Ave you seen our Blog ?


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Quoting 203. Patrap:
Over the Late weekend and early next week the BOC may spin up something as the Front sends some energy down that way.



Only to go into MX, sigh...
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Quoting 200. allancalderini:
He is dead and with a capital D.Btw good morning everyone have a beautiful day.
well the mets have been saying that each day for 2 weeks now..he's still confounding them to this very minute.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
Taken this morning from Saint Johns.

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Quoting 199. opal92nwf:
Well, it's going to be a little while before Erin, but anyway, looks like everyone's having fun now! and did I make anyone hungry?
Nop I didn`t see seafood and that is my weakness ;)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4458
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bursting going on to xD's SE...curve up and soak south Dade
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
Goodnight all... stay safe, cool, dry.
Catch ya all in the AM.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Over the Late weekend and early next week the BOC may spin up something as the Front sends some energy down that way.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
Quoting 148. LargoFl:
Intensity models are lowering expectations..........
He is dead and with a capital D.Btw good morning everyone have a beautiful day.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4458
Well, it's going to be a little while before Erin, and did I make anyone hungry?
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Quoting 162. stoormfury:
COULD THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BE THE PRECURSOR OF ERIN
Shouting hmmn! We can all hear you.
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gettin' dark on the coast in North Broward
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
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Quoting 151. Patrap:
Fresca "Alert" MODE.


Mint Green-- Low

Emerald-- Med

Aqua-- High


it never fails...Now i,m hungry and thirsty..The grill will be on fire shortly. Home brew is chillin..And I, the lover of America and its freedoms, will partake in these ventures of pure joy and satisfaction....While listening to the best music ever written.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
Quoting 189. RitaEvac:
I can just see every person on here, when they scroll down the blog and see +pluses, they hover over it to see who plussed, on every single entry.


I've been on the blog off and on for 6 years and I just now realized this. Username applies sometimes :p
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Quoting 186. opal92nwf:

I was thinking Gulf Coast too



the I storm is always around that time of year for a gulf coast hit east may be another late season threat like last year as well

we simply have to wait too see how this is all going to play itself out
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Quoting 189. RitaEvac:
I can just see every person on here, when they scroll down the blog and see +pluses, they hover over it to see who plussed, on every single entry.


+
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it's pouring in Ft. Pierce/ Port St. Lucie now.
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Quoting 189. RitaEvac:
I can just see every person on here, when they scroll down the blog and see +pluses, they hover over it to see who plussed, on every single entry.

I do it!
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I can just see every person on here, when they scroll down the blog and see +pluses, they hover over it to see who plussed, on every single entry.
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188. yoboi
Quoting 182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
likely the gulf coaster threat too maybe who knows lots of time to go yet


FWIW I noticed 3 crawfish crossing the road this morning heading due east.....
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
Quoting 182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
likely the gulf coaster threat too maybe who knows lots of time to go yet

I was thinking Gulf Coast too
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Quoting 181. wunderweatherman123:
i kinda understand why the models dont develop anything in 2 weeks. all these SAL bursts will limit development but the waves coming off africa will start to clear them away. my thought, august 20th we should start seeing a similar wave train to 2010 not as strong but we will start going down the name list in hurry

Agreed but I say this will start earlier like around 10th-15th of August
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Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 3.35° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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Quoting 176. opal92nwf:

Yeah that's what I'm thinking too


I say look out for Gabrielle....she might be a large, powerful 'cane.
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Quoting 176. opal92nwf:

Yeah that's what I'm thinking too
likely the gulf coaster threat too maybe who knows lots of time to go yet
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i kinda understand why the models dont develop anything in 2 weeks. all these SAL bursts will limit development but the waves coming off africa will start to clear them away. my thought, august 20th we should start seeing a similar wave train to 2010 not as strong but we will start going down the name list in hurry
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If the SAL interacts with the VITO (Vornicity Inhibitor of Tropical Output) and the LUIGI (Loose Upper Inhibition Gradient Input) and the DOMINICan republic is in the way...all hell may break loose.
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There does seem to be a more westward movement with the feature offshore of Vero Beach.
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Quoting 171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its deciding what to do which is not much

Oh just die already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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