Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 271. unknowncomic:
Big question. Steering. HP moves to Azores may mean more fish.


It reinforced by another ridge over the Western Atlantic

12z GFS: (174hrs)



I dont see many recurvature if a zonal pattern like that takes place.
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Just coming in here.
What's stopping 91L from forming?
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276. 7544
looks like its dizzy should i go north should i go west lol
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275. wpb
Hurricane GIL Forecast Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021433
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND I DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD REASON TO EXPLAIN IT SINCE BOTH SHEAR AND SSTS HAVE BEEN
RULED OUT AS THE CAUSE. THE SHEAR IS LOW ACCORDING TO THE DIAGNOSIS
PROVIDED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND GIL IS MOVING
OVER 27.5 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS.




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Quoting 250. SecretStormNerd:
I'm a little confused as to why if the wunderground is owned by twc, then why do they have conflicting local forecasts?


I believe TWC also owns Intellicast.com (another popular weather site).
They're working on a weather monopoly.
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Quoting 269. Camille33:
lots of storms going out to sea this year!!

You wish.
If you didn't know it already, the buhmooda high is pretty prominent this year, which means more landfalls. (Not necisarrily the USA, but read my novel "The end of the USA")
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Quoting 262. Hurricanes305:


I agree people calling the season a bust because of SAL don't know much about it. The dry air is already thinning out as it moves west and the vigorous AEWs is taken the Eastern part out. I give it till a week from today the 8th-10th when Upper Atmospheric winds are more favorable as the TUTT starts to weaken and upper ridging returns. Also High pressure is expected to move back towards the Azores but will still dominate the Atlantic. This will cause a wide scale lowering of pressures across most of the tropics not to mention the MJO coming back late August. I will make a bold statement and go with 4 name storms developing this month 1 or 2 the next 2 weeks and 2 systems at the same time due to the MJO the last 2 weeks or so. Its just a bold statement :)
Big question. Steering. HP moves to Azores may mean more fish.
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Quoting 259. Astrometeor:


TWC for the most part just handles operating costs and gives WU publicity. WU still has their own meteorologists that pump out their own predictions.
As it should be..just me harmless opinion..:)
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lots of storms going out to sea this year!!
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Quoting 258. CCkid00:

and...i know the Farmer's Almanac isn't science....i'm just noting the irony of it.
Close but no cigar.
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The GFS has a system affecting Florida and Texas..

Link
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!!
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Quoting 257. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


If you ever see me out jogging, call 911! It would mean that something big and bad is chasing me!!! ... my knees would not take it any more :(
Lol!.
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Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah and I think we will see dust drop out faster than what people think


That is what seems to be happening it pulled N now SSW making loops


I agree people calling the season a bust because of SAL don't know much about it. The dry air is already thinning out as it moves west and the vigorous AEWs is taken the Eastern part out. I give it till a week from today the 8th-10th when Upper Atmospheric winds are more favorable as the TUTT starts to weaken and upper ridging returns. Also High pressure is expected to move back towards the Azores but will still dominate the Atlantic. This will cause a wide scale lowering of pressures across most of the tropics not to mention the MJO coming back late August. I will make a bold statement and go with 4 name storms developing this month 1 or 2 the next 2 weeks and 2 systems at the same time due to the MJO the last 2 weeks or so. Its just a bold statement :)
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Quoting 235. Grothar:





Those radars...fascinating!
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anyone else notice that on the WU links to the models, satellite, etc., the date is 7 p.m. Wed. Dec 31, 1969?
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Quoting 250. SecretStormNerd:
I'm a little confused as to why if the wunderground is owned by twc, then why do they have conflicting local forecasts?


TWC for the most part just handles operating costs and gives WU publicity. WU still has their own meteorologists that pump out their own predictions.
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Quoting 245. hydrus:
Predicting a tropical cyclone threat for Florida between August 5th thru 7th is is like predicting a cold front in Florida sometime during the third week of October...Its more climatology then a real forecast or prediction.

and...i know the Farmer's Almanac isn't science....i'm just noting the irony of it.
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Quoting 253. washingtonian115:
It was another cool start to the day with slight wind chills earlier this morning when I went out for a jog.I see nothing is really happening on the blog so I'll be in and out.Waiting for the real storms to form.


If you ever see me out jogging, call 911! It would mean that something big and bad is chasing me!!! ... my knees would not take it any more :(
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If Aaron or any SF wu server servants are around lurking.

Clock drift has infected this entry and Dr. Roods in the directory.

-54 and such in the time log.
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Quoting 245. hydrus:
Predicting a tropical cyclone threat for Florida between August 5th thru 7th is is like predicting a cold front in Florida sometime during the third week of October...Its more climatology then a real forecast or prediction.

agreed, but i also would think that of all of August and September but ironically, there are NO other hurricane threats predicted for these two months, BUT for these 3 days.
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Glad recon was cancelled. Waste of money on storm that's only going to bring little rain and winds. Better to save it for more worthy storms.
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It was another cool start to the day with slight wind chills earlier this morning when I went out for a jog.I see nothing is really happening on the blog so I'll be in and out.Waiting for the real storms to form.
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Quoting 249. MahFL:
Wow Dorian seems to be suddenly organizing rather quickly.


It's trying.. right now it's getting itself aligned with it's own MLC. As long as the storms keep firing today into tonight, it should continue to organize.
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251. VR46L
Quoting 237. opal92nwf:

I think Texas has seen it's fair share of hurricanes in the past few years, and this ridge and drought is just a product of the change in steering patterns that will most likely not having hurricanes going into the far Eastern Gulf this year.


Sshhh !!

You will depress RitaEVAC ... but I hear you , but it would be good if they got a decent rainmaker

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I'm a little confused as to why if the wunderground is owned by twc, then why do they have conflicting local forecasts?
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249. MahFL
Wow Dorian seems to be suddenly organizing rather quickly.
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247. taistelutipu


This new Earth Atmosphere 2.0 is showing us that the 1F increase in Global Temps is followed with a 10% increase in WV.

Each Thunderstorm now has more Energy per Square Meter to bring the Nasty.

And this will only get worse as we climb past 400ppm CO2.
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Hi folks. I see Dorian is still haunting us. Something to be watched over the next couple of days.

In the meantime, the worst severe thunderstorms have caused an estimated half a billion euros, i.e. approx. 664 million dollars in South West Germany, the region my mum is from. I watched a few videos of these storms and they almost look like severe thunderstorms in the plains. We usually don't get hail larger than peanuts, but now golfball-sized hail. I've never seen anything like it in this area of the world, the intensity is just off the scale.

SWR3 website with videos of the event. There is no commentary on the videos. Here are a few videos of the hail and the damage it caused. It shredded the metal shutters on the windows and broke the rooftiles. Surreal!
Some people also reported a strange noise just before the hail hit, they wrote it sounded like a jet engine so there could have been tornadoes associated with it but they didn't see them, probably rainwrapped. I'll keep an eye on it, damage survey is still underway.
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Good Afternoon... Remnants really trying to make it into ECFL.
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Quoting 219. CCkid00:

That would explain The Old Farmer's Almanac. Hurricane Threat for Florida on August 5th-7th. Regardless of what happens now, they were pretty darn close.......to have predicted that a year ago!~
Predicting a tropical cyclone threat for Florida between August 5th thru 7th is is like predicting a cold front in Florida sometime during the third week of October...Its more climatology then a real forecast or prediction.
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Quoting 231. HuracandelCaribe:


This year SAL has been mixing out very well wen it reaches PR. This is probably why the SST in our vicinity is above average.

No dust making it to the US coast?
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bands of rain coming to Ft. Lauderdale/Boca Raton in a few hours...such a slow mover
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Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:
"There were five hurricane seasons with characteristics most similar to what we
observed in June-July 2013. The best analog years that we could find for the 2013
hurricane season were 1952, 1966, 1996, 2007, and 2008. We anticipate that 2013
seasonal hurricane activity will have activity that is slightly above the average of these
five analog years. We believe that the remainder of 2013 will have above-average
activity in the Atlantic basin."







<-----------------------------


Good. No Andrew type storm and route there. I'm good with that.
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I know of the low level east of Vero Beach. But is a new surface circulation developing due east of West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. The Miami radar seems to be hinting at this.
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Regardless of development or no development, the most notable aspect of the remnants at the moment is the relentless rain (on the loops anyway) over the NW Bahamas and particularly Grand Bahama Island. You can see the system slowly drifting to the North on the loops but the close proximity of the circulation to the Florida coast (which is still relatively dry) is causing a "training" like rain pattern over the Bahamas.

Hope one our Bahamas Bloggers comes on soon to let us know how bad the rain/potential flooding is on the ground for them at the moment.
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Quoting 236. HurricaneAndre:

Who's the THC.


The Hurricane Center.
Better known as NHC (National Hurricane Center).
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Port Everglades buoy data

Station PVGF1
Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)
Location: 26.092N 80.109W
Date: Fri, 02 Aug 2013 15:36:00 UTC
Winds: W (270°) at 1.9 kt gusting to 4.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in
Air Temperature: 84.6 F
Dew Point: 70.3 F
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Quoting 221. VR46L:


Ah keep hope !!
you might get your rainmaker yet ...

I think Texas has seen it's fair share of hurricanes in the past few years, and this ridge and drought is just a product of the change in steering patterns that will most likely not having hurricanes going into the far Eastern Gulf this year.
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Quoting 232. Sfloridacat5:

If so (coc), THC should bring Dorian back to T.D. status (which could happen anytime).

Who's the THC.
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234. Skyepony (Mod)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 02 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-063 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN CANCELLED BY NHC AT 02/1145Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD
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Quoting 230. wunderkidcayman:

Umm it has worked it's way down to surface

If so (coc), THC should bring Dorian back to T.D. status (which could happen anytime).
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Quoting 228. wunderkidcayman:

I know
people think this is a lot of dust but its not plus it's also weakening


This year SAL has been mixing out very well wen it reaches PR. This is probably why the SST in our vicinity is above average.

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Quoting 226. Sfloridacat5:
Really need to step back and look at the entire circulation. Large broad circulation that needs to work itself all the way down to the surface.

Umm it has worked it's way down to surface
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229. flsky


Are the clouds on FL west coast that form in this image, part of XDorian's circulation?
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Quoting 225. HuracandelCaribe:
I don't see the big fuzz about this SAL dust outbreak. I live in PR and I was expecting visibility to go down to 5 miles but at this moment visibility still over 10 miles. I have seen much much worst.

I know
people think this is a lot of dust but its not plus it's also weakening
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.