Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

Share this Blog
53
+

After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 328 - 278

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

spinning up...not dead yet!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
327. VR46L
Quoting 309. 69Viking:


The front is weak. Normally when a front goes through it cools down and humidity levels drop. It's currently 87 with 71% humidity in NW Florida, doesn't even feel like a front passed through.


No 87°F doesn't appear to be a cold front .. but it is on the maps .. Is the seemingly constant days of rain storms happening there today ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 322. ecflweatherfan:


Definitely looks like the spin about 50 mi east of Melbourne is dampening out and moving west. Parent low looks to be developing to the SW of Grand Bahama. Based on what I see in the radar. That is the area of best convergence at this time, so it would make sense. Waters in the 29-30C range in that area. I say NHC ups it to 50%, perhaps making mention that a Tropical Depression could be forming, and any increase could result in advisories being issued later. Far stretch?
I say at least 50%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm guessing 50%...maybe. It's hard to forecast the forecaster making the forecast.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont know about anyone else, but this seems to be organizing rather quick.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 235. Grothar:




Definitely looks like the spin about 50 mi east of Melbourne is dampening out and moving west. Parent low looks to be developing to the SW of Grand Bahama. Based on what I see in the radar. That is the area of best convergence at this time, so it would make sense. Waters in the 29-30C range in that area. I say NHC ups it to 50%, perhaps making mention that a Tropical Depression could be forming, and any increase could result in advisories being issued later. Far stretch?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Echo Tops ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I was just wondering...Did Hurricane K wipe New orleans off the face of the earth?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
319. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow Dorian is organizing faster than I expected...but it will be short termed for sure. Radar depicts a clear and closed low level circulation about 40 miles off of Melbourne, FL. The weight of this system in the current pressure field is fairly weak, and data from weather stations and buoys only shows a 1013 mb low. BUT, looking at the satellite, you can see outflow channels begin to look fairly decent and convection from the mid level center south of the LLC has been moving north. The low has also been moving pretty steadily at a western pace, but that will change as it interacts with that frontal boundary coming in from the north. Behind the front there is dry air which will certainly inhibit development...along with increasing shear as it moves north.

Watch for Dorian to develop further over the next 12 hours before the dry air and shear rip her apart. When I say develop further, I do NOT mean into a TS. Dorian still has a long way to go for any classification. I mean the MLC and LLC are trying to become stacked for the first time in almost a week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well GFS still spinning up a storm in the SW Caribbean, moving it NW, eventually sending it into Mexico under that all that ridging. It is showing consistency though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 240. weathermanwannabe:
Regardless of development or no development, the most notable aspect of the remnants at the moment is the relentless rain (on the loops anyway) over the NW Bahamas and particularly Grand Bahama Island. You can see the system slowly drifting to the North on the loops but the close proximity of the circulation to the Florida coast (which is still relatively dry) is causing a "training" like rain pattern over the Bahamas.

Hope one our Bahamas Bloggers comes on soon to let us know how bad the rain/potential flooding is on the ground for them at the moment.


No rain in Nassau, had a moderate rain shower around 3 a.m., Freeport has light rain now and has had some moderate showers on and off, none particularly heavy, Abaco no rain now some light rain last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here come those first thunderstorm bands from X-Dor from the East. Pretty cool since this is something few ever expected. Just goes to show weather is hard to predict, making our complete fascination justified.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 308. SPLbeater:
Interesting to see all the models pointing out to sea. As well as the NHC.

Didnt I say a week ago this thing would re-curve? :D

if it didnt weaken it would have hit florida as the wind stream would have been faster.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting 259. Astrometeor:


TWC for the most part just handles operating costs and gives WU publicity. WU still has their own meteorologists that pump out their own predictions.


Ok. Wunderground is more accurate anyway!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you're in St.Pete FL south of downtown, get to shelter. I was just watching a massive rotating wall cloud, it passed over at Dr. MLK Jr. and 3rd about 5 minutes ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I though this was funny. Probably just my sick humor..

2013 4
D is for Dorian.
D is for Dead.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713

103. AussieStorm 3:07 PM GMT on August 02, 2013 1

Quoting IKE:

No. Not happening. Next.



I agree... just watch this loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 299. ecflweatherfan:


No matter how much science is behind forecasting... THIS just goes to show how unpredictable such systems can be! Good afternoon, all!

Interesting to watch the cloud and wind patterns here on the east-central coast of FL this afternoon. NNE/SSW cloud lines arching to N/S orientation just to my south, and further south you can see NNW/SSE orientation. Definitely something there, just not very strong. And now getting a few showers from those cloud lines. Wind gradient weak enough to support seabreeze development, but not the traditional SE winds behind the boundary, but rather NE winds this afternoon so far.


I wonder if it has to do with two tropical entities on both of its sides. Probably robbing it of inflow.



A large elongated area of intense convection located to the west of Gil competing for moisture as well as cooler SST around 27C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 292. VR46L:


The amount of fronts that keep coming down this year is quite surprising ...I see there maybe some severe weather days in there too... Never used that page for Models I like it .


The front is weak. Normally when a front goes through it cools down and humidity levels drop. It's currently 87 with 71% humidity in NW Florida, doesn't even feel like a front passed through.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting to see all the models pointing out to sea. As well as the NHC.

Didnt I say a week ago this thing would re-curve? :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 298. congaline:
If 91L intensified would it still follow the frontal system to the NE?

It would be absorbed into the frontal boundary while accelerating northeast out to sea, yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 292. VR46L:


The amount of fronts that keep coming down this year is quite surprising ...I see there maybe some severe weather days in there too... Never used that page for Models I like it .


The amount of fronts is surprising, especially how far south they are coming. But we also have a VERY progressive pattern across the CONUS at the time. The High pressure ridges are building in very quickly, and we have a very stron A-B ridge over the Atlantic. It would not surprise me in the least if a CV storm affects FL or the SE CONUS this year. Hoping not, however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 236. HurricaneAndre:

Who's the THC.

Hmmmmmm... THC? Can I get some? ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 294. GeorgiaStormz:



Remember all the doom and gloom and "I'm leaving WU NOW!!!" banter?

Seems so long ago.


Yes! I joined this site right in the heat of "omg, there's going to be hundreds of trolls". I stayed quiet for a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope some of you weather visualization gurus come out to the American Water Resources Association spring specialty conference for GIS and spatial data in Utah next year. At Snowbird. You definitely are experts in getting water resource spatial data into formats that decision makers can understand. That is the theme.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 298. congaline:
If 91L intensified would it still follow the frontal system to the NE?
. The front is weakening , most likely , do a loop de loop , over Florida !
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Quoting 287. whitewabit:


its owned by Weather Services International according to their website ..


WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies (TWCC) and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 269. Camille33:
lots of storms going out to sea this year!!
. Says who ! Not the blocking high!
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Quoting 275. wpb:
Hurricane GIL Forecast Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------



000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021433
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND I DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD REASON TO EXPLAIN IT SINCE BOTH SHEAR AND SSTS HAVE BEEN
RULED OUT AS THE CAUSE. THE SHEAR IS LOW ACCORDING TO THE DIAGNOSIS
PROVIDED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND GIL IS MOVING
OVER 27.5 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS.






No matter how much science is behind forecasting... THIS just goes to show how unpredictable such systems can be! Good afternoon, all!

Interesting to watch the cloud and wind patterns here on the east-central coast of FL this afternoon. NNE/SSW cloud lines arching to N/S orientation just to my south, and further south you can see NNW/SSE orientation. Definitely something there, just not very strong. And now getting a few showers from those cloud lines. Wind gradient weak enough to support seabreeze development, but not the traditional SE winds behind the boundary, but rather NE winds this afternoon so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If 91L intensified would it still follow the frontal system to the NE?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has convergence now lower too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
295. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 290. Patrap:
World View
Collection:


Welcome to Weather Underground's World View! A weekly pictorial review of weather around the globe submitted by the WunderPhoto community. If you'd like to participate, upload your photos!

Tip: Use your j/k keys to navigate.


some very nice pictures in the collection for this week ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 259. Astrometeor:


TWC for the most part just handles operating costs and gives WU publicity. WU still has their own meteorologists that pump out their own predictions.



Remember all the doom and gloom and "I'm leaving WU NOW!!!" banter?

Seems so long ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 291. biff4ugo:
91l definitely has that surface circulation that is usually a sign of a big threat. Go shear go!

When central Florida Lakes are full, THEN I'll stop asking for rain. We did have the wettest July on record, that got us up from less than 10% to near 40%

I hope 91l becomes a big hurricane it is going out to sea anyway so why not!! I wana track something!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
292. VR46L
Quoting 266. hydrus:
The GFS has a system affecting Florida and Texas..

Link


The amount of fronts that keep coming down this year is quite surprising ...I see there maybe some severe weather days in there too... Never used that page for Models I like it .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91l definitely has that surface circulation that is usually a sign of a big threat. Go shear go!

When central Florida Lakes are full, THEN I'll stop asking for rain. We did have the wettest July on record, that got us up from less than 10% to near 40%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
World View
Collection:


Welcome to Weather Underground's World View! A weekly pictorial review of weather around the globe submitted by the WunderPhoto community. If you'd like to participate, upload your photos!

Tip: Use your j/k keys to navigate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

384 hrs. This is not a falsehood it has been showing on the cfs for a while now this exact pattern!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
91L doesn't have long before it becomes absorbed in the frontal boundary before its northwest. Maybe another day or so. We'll see what happens. It's in a favorable environment, and it does look a lot better today than it did yesterday; I'm a bit surprised the odds are only at 30%. May see an increase in percentages at the next TWO...depending on the forecaster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
287. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 273. Sfloridacat5:


I believe TWC also owns Intellicast.com (another popular weather site).
They're working on a weather monopoly.


its owned by Weather Services International according to their website ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 285. Patrap:

Here comes XDorian!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 262. Hurricanes305:


I agree people calling the season a bust because of SAL don't know much about it. The dry air is already thinning out as it moves west and the vigorous AEWs is taken the Eastern part out. I give it till a week from today the 8th-10th when Upper Atmospheric winds are more favorable as the TUTT starts to weaken and upper ridging returns. Also High pressure is expected to move back towards the Azores but will still dominate the Atlantic. This will cause a wide scale lowering of pressures across most of the tropics not to mention the MJO coming back late August. I will make a bold statement and go with 4 name storms developing this month 1 or 2 the next 2 weeks and 2 systems at the same time due to the MJO the last 2 weeks or so. Its just a bold statement :)
Anyone that believes this year will be slow, or a " bust " does not know much about Tropical Meteorology.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This wave looks like its trying to shield itself.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Change to pattern up-comming...the cfs model as well as long range gfs models showing favorable pattern for recurves in the peak of the year which is good news..similar to 2010.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting 278. Hurricanes305:


It reinforced by another ridge over the Western Atlantic

12z GFS: (174hrs)



I dont see many recurvature if a zonal pattern like that takes place.
As usual may come down to timing and strength of troughs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 277. JrWeathermanFL:
Just coming in here.
What's stopping 91L from forming?


Well, shear and dry air aren't helping matters. If it can hold onto convection, it might be upgraded to a high chance later today thanks to its low level structure improving. I could see a weak to moderate TS coming from this before it merges with the front to the north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You guys noticed that Stewart hasn't done any TWO's or advisories?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 271. unknowncomic:
Big question. Steering. HP moves to Azores may mean more fish.


It reinforced by another ridge over the Western Atlantic

12z GFS: (174hrs)



I dont see many recurvature if a zonal pattern like that takes place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 328 - 278

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.