Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NasBahMan:


Your right....sorry....back to stealth mode.

Actually, it's good to hear from you. You were the person I was thinking of when a discussion came up a few days ago of who has the earliest join date. I'm almost positive you are the earliest (semi) active blogger on here.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15171
Good afternoon fellow bloggers! T&T's radar is back up and running.



Here is the link: T&T radar
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Two competing spins apparent.
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Im beginning to give a little thought to the wave near the cape verde Islands...it has an area of low pressure with it.
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this sure looks like it could come inland, maybe started already..
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ULL in the northwest Caribbean still extorting significant drag on xDorian's steering against the weak frontal trough.

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Quoting 346. sar2401:

Don't say things like that...you're going to spoil all their fun. :-)


Your right....sorry....back to stealth mode.
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Quoting 365. Patrap:



It appears that there may be a possible new COC forming under the convection near 26.3N and 79.3W.

The spin to the north not as strong as earlier.
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storm cells coming into the east coast now..watch out for waterspouts folks..stay safe over there..........
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Quoting 354. GTstormChaserCaleb:
288 hrs. out is a very long time and I don't know where it would originate from it would have to be a low latitude tropical wave interacting with the western caribbean monsoon trough. For now I treat it as ghost. By the way good afternoon everybody I see ex-Dorian is trying to wind up for one last showdown before it gets absorbed into the front. After that tropics might get quiet for a week or two before Cape-Verde season kicks into high gear, may still need to monitor trough splits off the East Coast for any development within that time frame.


Yeah, mainly watching to see if this newer version is going to be spinning up ghosts long range. Can't tell where it originates either But I too suspect a tropical wave interaction. Rita was a tropical wave that couldn't produce a thunderstorm all the way across the Atlantic until she met up with a trough of low pressure. A lot of ways these things can spin up.
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Absolutely POURING in Port St. Lucie. Rain coming down hard but no wind to speak of. Good day to be home and not at work!! Is this starting to ramp up some? Looks like lots of convection blowing up. How fast is this moving or it is moving at all. Seems like it has been located just south and east of me all day.
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Summary bout the thing formerly known as Dorian: Nothing to see her people. Move along. :-) j/k This thing is coming together nicely, however I doubt if it will amount to much before it runs into something. Can we get an aircraft? Call it a training mission?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Gotta love August in Texas. ;)

Temp
92.4°F
Switch to Celsius
0mph
Hi: 92°F
Lo: 75°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: SSE 11
Heat Index: 103°F
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 74°F
Avg Wind: 1 SW
Pressure: 29.93"
Rain/Month: 0"


Or Alabama
Temp: 90
Dewpoint: 79
Heat Index: 108
Pressure: 30.03
Wind 4 mph SSE

So much for a cold front. :-)
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Quoting 358. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm siting in backyard hearing boomers and it is starting to get cloudy.
yeah I hear the booming also, wonder if it will drift north towards us later on
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Definitely looks like the spin about 50 mi east of Melbourne is dampening out and moving west. Parent low looks to be developing to the SW of Grand Bahama. Based on what I see in the radar. That is the area of best convergence at this time, so it would make sense. Waters in the 29-30C range in that area. I say NHC ups it to 50%, perhaps making mention that a Tropical Depression could be forming, and any increase could result in advisories being issued later. Far stretch?

I will go with far stretch. The convection is already being displaced to the NNE, where the low will eventually follow. It will remain an invest for at least another day, and has a chance to be classified tomorrow, when it's to the NE of the Bahamas. I'm not smart enough to know what percentages the NHC will use, but I think the probability of any storm warnings is about non-existent.
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Quoting 342. LargoFl:
man street flooding rains from that lil cell in st pete..
I'm siting in backyard hearing boomers and it is starting to get cloudy.
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Gotta love August in Texas. ;)

Temp
92.4°F
Switch to Celsius
0mph
Hi: 92°F
Lo: 75°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: SSE 11
Heat Index: 103°F
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 74°F
Avg Wind: 1 SW
Pressure: 29.93"
Rain/Month: 0"
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Quoting 349. SouthTampa:
I just watched this roll through from my office in ACH. Very cool and dangerous storm!
I'm going to try to turn the set of photos I took into a gif or something.
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Quoting 317. AtHomeInTX:
Well GFS still spinning up a storm in the SW Caribbean, moving it NW, eventually sending it into Mexico under that all that ridging. It is showing consistency though.

288 hrs. out is a very long time and I don't know where it would originate from it would have to be a low latitude tropical wave interacting with the western caribbean monsoon trough. For now I treat it as ghost. By the way good afternoon everybody I see ex-Dorian is trying to wind up for one last showdown before it gets absorbed into the front. After that tropics might get quiet for a week or two before Cape-Verde season kicks into high gear, may still need to monitor trough splits off the East Coast for any development within that time frame.
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Still 30% at 2 according to the NHC.
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10-M winds


Sloppy circulation

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Quoting 350. whitewabit:


Pat .. the best thing to do is to put in a Support Ticket explaining the issue ..

Support can be found at the bottom line on any WU page ..


I did, and sent a note to Aaron, but his mail is closed.

Its been having issue for 24 plus now.

I can zip a note to Dr. M for expediting it too.

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350. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 336. Patrap:
Just a note to mods or whomever, the wu Radars are not allowing the Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile to tag up,nor the others in the Radar menu as well.


Pat .. the best thing to do is to put in a Support Ticket explaining the issue ..

Support can be found at the bottom line on any WU page ..
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Quoting 312. CatfishJones:
If you're in St.Pete FL south of downtown, get to shelter. I was just watching a massive rotating wall cloud, it passed over at Dr. MLK Jr. and 3rd about 5 minutes ago.
I just watched this roll through from my office in ACH. Very cool and dangerous storm!
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IS MAINLY
LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AFTER THAT...DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.
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Quoting NasBahMan:


Would point out that the current pressure in Freeport Grand Bahama is 1016 MB and it has been rising throughout the day.

Don't say things like that...you're going to spoil all their fun. :-)
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zombie Dorian remains disorganized with two competing circulations.
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Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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man street flooding rains from that lil cell in st pete..
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HRRR has it tightening and losing convection as it moves away from the coast of Florida.

Link
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Quoting 334. NasBahMan:


...and the problem with so many weak fronts coming south in a year with a strong Bermuda high is that it makes predicting the movement of storms in the Western Atlantic difficult as a weak front can cause a brief weakness in the high and you think a storm is headed out to sea and all of a sudden the front pulls out and the high builds back in sending the storm back to the west.


Just like what happened with Andrew... Most people thought "NW turn... Fish storm." Then the A-B high slammed the door on that possibility when a weak cold front stalled and dissipated over the Deep South.
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Quoting MisterPerfect:
xDorian has produced a four-course buffet of crow for people

Really? For those that thought it was going to come back to life as a storm or those that said it wouldn't? You seem a little vague on the point.
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Quoting 322. ecflweatherfan:


Definitely looks like the spin about 50 mi east of Melbourne is dampening out and moving west. Parent low looks to be developing to the SW of Grand Bahama. Based on what I see in the radar. That is the area of best convergence at this time, so it would make sense. Waters in the 29-30C range in that area. I say NHC ups it to 50%, perhaps making mention that a Tropical Depression could be forming, and any increase could result in advisories being issued later. Far stretch?


Would point out that the current pressure in Freeport Grand Bahama is 1016 MB and it has been rising throughout the day.
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Quoting 335. 7544:


looks like its getting a comma shrimp shape now and another jog west


I see that too..good eye lol
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Just a note to mods or whomever, the wu Radars are not allowing the Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile to tag up,nor the others in the Radar menu as well.
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335. 7544
Quoting 328. MisterPerfect:
spinning up...not dead yet!


looks like its getting a comma shrimp shape now and another jog west
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Quoting 292. VR46L:


The amount of fronts that keep coming down this year is quite surprising ...I see there maybe some severe weather days in there too... Never used that page for Models I like it .


...and the problem with so many weak fronts coming south in a year with a strong Bermuda high is that it makes predicting the movement of storms in the Western Atlantic difficult as a weak front can cause a brief weakness in the high and you think a storm is headed out to sea and all of a sudden the front pulls out and the high builds back in sending the storm back to the west.
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Quoting theyoungmet:
Wow Dorian is organizing faster than I expected...but it will be short termed for sure. Radar depicts a clear and closed low level circulation about 40 miles off of Melbourne, FL. The weight of this system in the current pressure field is fairly weak, and data from weather stations and buoys only shows a 1015 mb low. BUT, looking at the satellite, you can see outflow channels begin to look fairly decent and convection from the mid level center south of the LLC has been moving north. The low has also been moving pretty steadily at a western pace, but that will change as it interacts with that frontal boundary coming in from the north. Behind the front there is dry air which will certainly inhibit development...along with increasing shear as it moves north.

Watch for Dorian to develop further over the next 12 hours before the dry air and shear rip her apart. When I say develop further, I do NOT mean into a TS. Dorian still has a long way to go for any classification. I mean the MLC and LLC are trying to become stacked for the first time in almost a week.

That's actually a pretty good summary from what I see. It does seem that 91L has better organization, although that's not being reflected in sensible weather. I also agree that it has little chance for classification as long as it's between the Bahamas and Florida. but it may have a small window of opportunity as it lifts northeast to briefly gain TD/TS status. After that, hopefully, it will be the last we see of what little bit was Dorian.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15171
Quoting 318. theyoungmet:
Wow Dorian is organizing faster than I expected...but it will be short termed for sure. Radar depicts a clear and closed low level circulation about 40 miles off of Melbourne, FL. The weight of this system in the current pressure field is fairly weak, and data from weather stations and buoys only shows a 1013 mb low. BUT, looking at the satellite, you can see outflow channels begin to look fairly decent and convection from the mid level center south of the LLC has been moving north. The low has also been moving pretty steadily at a western pace, but that will change as it interacts with that frontal boundary coming in from the north. Behind the front there is dry air which will certainly inhibit development...along with increasing shear as it moves north.

Watch for Dorian to develop further over the next 12 hours before the dry air and shear rip her apart. When I say develop further, I do NOT mean into a TS. Dorian still has a long way to go for any classification. I mean the MLC and LLC are trying to become stacked for the first time in almost a week.


Very impressive analysis from 16 year old :) Better than I could have explained the storm!
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330. txjac
I am so, so jealous of those that are getting rain ...
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xDorian has produced a four-course buffet of crow for people
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spinning up...not dead yet!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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