Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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1728. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22605
Quoting 1724. mikatnight:


"...Candygram..."


Our age is definitely now fully on display.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting 1714. fredric1979:
So do land-o- canes produce the dreaded shark-nados


only if there are landsharks in the area
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Quoting 1720. DocMurphy:
A Landocane could only produce a sharknado if it passed over the New York area where it might encounter the dreaded landshark. Of course the landshark has not been seen since a 1970's episode of SNL. I would set the probability of sharknado at near zero.


"...Candygram..."
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052

Quoting 1704. ackee:
Looking ahead base on the fact that wind shear and dust have cause the MDR to become hostile for development so far looking ahead in Aug and September what type of activity do u guys see for the reminder of the seasons ?


A ACTIVE
B average
c below average
D well below average
A or my self-created E: Hyperactive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


There once was a storm named Dorian
That traveled across the Atlantic O-ce-an,
After dying a bit
And giving forecasters fits
He reformed next to Florida to rub it in!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 1717. tkeith:
no...catfishnados


Trailerechos
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A Landocane could only produce a sharknado if it passed over the New York area where it might encounter the dreaded landshark. Of course the landshark has not been seen since a 1970's episode of SNL. I would set the probability of sharknado at near zero.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
1719. beell
At least no one can accuse the NHC of padding the storm count numbers.

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1718. ncstorm
Quoting 1713. moonlightcowboy:


that blob is incredible..I remember posting earlier this week and i think it was the CMC that saw several lows tracking across to the east coast..I remarked about how many lows was sitting there in the middle of the US..I dont understand how the models see an occurence and then drop it?

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1717. tkeith
Quoting fredric1979:
So do land-o- canes produce the dreaded shark-nados
no...catfishnados
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not going to be a fun day at work!
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So do land-o- canes produce the dreaded shark-nados
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1710. 954FtLCane:

I've run windows 8 with both a touchscreen and without. I definitely prefer the touchscreen. Like anything though you'll eventually get used to it. I did like windows 7 and have no idea why they got rid of it so quickly especially after they kept that disastrous Vista around for so long. Good luck with your new puter!
Nice cloudy rainy day down here in Lauderdale. Seems like this is the blow off from Trop depression Dorian. I hope the clouds hang around and the rain goes away. Last thing we need is anymore rain.


I foresee a cloudy, wet day
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Quoting 1648. LargoFl:
good morning folk..coffee is perked..enjoy, went out last night and bought a new computer..it has this windows 8 on it..grrrr...time to relearn everything..if you have windows 7..stay there lol..me I like windows 7 better.

I've run windows 8 with both a touchscreen and without. I definitely prefer the touchscreen. Like anything though you'll eventually get used to it. I did like windows 7 and have no idea why they got rid of it so quickly especially after they kept that disastrous Vista around for so long. Good luck with your new puter!
Nice cloudy rainy day down here in Lauderdale. Seems like this is the blow off from Trop depression Dorian. I hope the clouds hang around and the rain goes away. Last thing we need is anymore rain.
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1709. barbamz
Ahh, TRMM passed over Dorian yesterday:


This pic is looking south towards Cuba.

Saturday August 3, 2013
Tropical Depression Dorian is Revived
Tropical depression Dorian, now located in the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida, began it's life a tropical wave moving off the African coast during the third week of July 2013. Dorian, in it's first incarnation, was upgraded to a tropical storm on July 24, 2013. Dorian dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27, 2013 but the remnants endured. This morning at 0900UTC (5 AM EDT) the National Hurricane Center upgraded the remnants of tropical storm Dorian to tropical depression Dorian.

The TRMM satellite passed above the forming tropical depression on August 2, 2013 2259 UTC (6:59 PM EDT) providing data for the image on the left above. TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument found powerful thunderstorms over Florida west of of Dorain center of circulation dropping rain at the rate of over 60.8 mm/hr (~2.4 inches) per hour. Some intense thunderstorms over Florida were found by TRMM to reach heights of over 16.5km (10.3 miles). The image on the right uses TRMM PR data to show a 3-D view of the vertical structure within thunderstorms in tropical depression Dorian.




Edit: Check out the links to the 3D-animations on the bottom of this site!
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Quoting 1700. barbamz:


Cloud top temps. In Europe the big blob would have been named (as all highs and lows get names) and we could speculate what will happen when XYZ and Dorian have their first date :)


I often wonder about the Probability of Precipitation convention. Sometimes it takes away from the sharpness of the forecast; often amusingly. Here's the NWS forecast for in effect for Mountain Home AR:

"Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible".

The WU forecast is not much better.

They've picked up > 2 inches since thunderstorms from the inland MCS started.
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Looks like the rainfield is expanding in our direction. Ft. Lauderdale got another rain shower, I'm sure they're lovin' it. Waterspout signature?

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 1704. ackee:
Looking ahead base on the fact that wind shear and dust have cause the MDR to become hostile for development so far looking ahead in Aug and September what type of activity do u guys see for the reminder of the seasons ?


A ACTIVE
B average
c below average
D well below average


Active to Over-Active
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


???
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1704. ackee
Looking ahead base on the fact that wind shear and dust have cause the MDR to become hostile for development so far looking ahead in Aug and September what type of activity do u guys see for the reminder of the seasons ?


A ACTIVE
B average
c below average
D well below average
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1700. barbamz:


Cloud top temps. In Europe the big blob would have been named (as all highs and lows get names) and we could speculate what will happen when XYZ and Dorian have their first date :)


They would produce an offspring called ZoriYan
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL
LOL

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Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Dorian, has to be a record for the longest aggravation in tropical history!

LLC fix @ about 32.4n,78.9w, drifting northwards. MLC still south @ about 27.8w,79.6n, stationary. That sound about right? D

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1700. barbamz


Cloud top temps. In Europe the big blob would have been named (as all highs and lows get names) and we could speculate what will happen when XYZ and Dorian have their first date :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


funny how the people that said: "Dorian is dead, see you in two weeks" might still be looking at Dorian when they get back LOL
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Quoting 1690. DocMurphy:
When I look at the Dvorak, I see xDorianBlob91LTD's spin running off to the northeast with all the convection cut off and being squashed to the south. Stupid question alert: Is this enough energy to be the early stages of future Erin?


sure..but not likely
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
1697. ncstorm
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One can only wonder where Dorian would have gone if it would have remained a Tropical Storm from the time it opened up into a Tropical Wave to regenerating into a Tropical Depression.

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Quoting 1681. barbamz:


The southeastern tip of the "land-cane". I wonder whether there had been any specific warnings up? Couldn't find any on SPC, but I'm not very familiar with this site.



Wonder if this is moving fast enough to affect the MS coast?
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Quoting 1668. GetReal:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.
Could combine with the MLC of Dorian and become an entity in the GOM.
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1693. hydrus
Quoting 1690. DocMurphy:
When I look at the Dvorak, I see xDorianBlob91LTD's spin running off to the northeast with all the convection cut off and being squashed to the south. Stupid question alert: Is this enough energy to be the early stages of future Erin?
Absolutely, and it would not be the first time something like that has happened.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22605
Ok, so Dorian is a naked swirl on the way out N/NE and has out-raced the convection and left it behind. Any thoughts that this could form a NEW low level center? Is this moving at all or sitting stationary off shore in the warm Gulf Stream? Dorian continues to confound us all!!!
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1691. hydrus
Quoting 1664. GetReal:


IMO it is possible that the MLL spin that Dorian is leaving behind may be a present to those looking for new near future development. The mid level flow may push this blob south, or SW.
Its like the mid level spin keeps kicken out surface lows one after the other...Interesting.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22605
When I look at the Dvorak, I see xDorianBlob91LTD's spin running off to the northeast with all the convection cut off and being squashed to the south. Stupid question alert: Is this enough energy to be the early stages of future Erin?
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Look how dense is the sal outbreak in the Caribbean.

Island of Montserrat where Soufriere Volcano is.



St Barths where our friend CaribBoy is.

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Quoting 1685. MiamiHurricanes09:
No reason to continue advisories on a naked swirl.

Dorian is synonymous with struggle.


a 12 day struggle at that
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Quoting 1668. GetReal:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.



Quoting 1664. GetReal:


IMO it is possible that the MLL spin that Dorian is leaving behind may be a present to those looking for new near future development. The mid level flow may push this blob south, or SW.



That is a weak Trough. Don't know about the mid moving in that direct but, the Dive of the Blob into the Gulf would sure be something to watch.
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Quoting 1678. Bobbyweather:
Why does everyone call the Mid-west storm a landcane?
I kinda don't understand. Well, I would agree that Tropical Storm Erin of 2007 was a landcane, but this storm, which formed inland, not over water, is not any sort of tropical cyclone. I think most f you would already understand, but facts are facts.


A little "anal" this morning?
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No reason to continue advisories on a naked swirl.

Dorian is synonymous with struggle.
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Quoting 1678. Bobbyweather:
Why does everyone call the Mid-west storm a landcane?
I kinda don't understand. Well, I would agree that Tropical Storm Erin of 2007 was a landcane, but this storm, which formed inland, not over water, is not any sort of tropical cyclone. I think most f you would already understand, but facts are facts.


landcanes get triangles instead of circles
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
You can clearly see the low heading north in an open swirl meeting up with the front. But, it is leaving behind the energy from Dorian and it seems to be seperate from the energy meeting the front. What will become of the energy sitting off Palm Beach County?
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Quoting 1668. GetReal:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.


That may be what the cmc is picking up on and what accuweather is talking about this week.
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1681. barbamz
Quoting 1670. AussieStorm:


Land-o-cane


The southeastern tip of the "land-cane". I wonder whether there had been any specific warnings up? Couldn't find any on SPC, but I'm not very familiar with this site.

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I knew Dorian would come back. I just knew it! :)
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We should have a landcane season too, and so far some of these landcanes are looking better than the tropical storms weve had so far ;)
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Why does everyone call the Mid-west storm a landcane?
I kinda don't understand. Well, I would agree that Tropical Storm Erin of 2007 was a landcane, but this storm, which formed inland, not over water, is not any sort of tropical cyclone. I think most of you would already understand, but facts are facts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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