Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 426. LargoFl:

Watch out, Eastgate!
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1242 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-021930-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1242 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.NOW...
SHOWER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WILL PUSH TOWARD THE EAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. AS THEY DEVELOP...THEY WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT FORMS AND PUSHES WEST OF I-95. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH
AND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED.
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good grief
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Quoting 406. Patrap:
Yea, Dr. Masters has made a lot of Blog entries.

I'm way behind one could say,"Posts: 383" but I took a 7 mth sabbatical for Health reasons.

: )


But over 116,000 comments helping others to understand tropical weather so I think that counts too!
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Quoting 386. weatherlover94:



I really wish they would have left the time frame alone at 48 hours instead of 120 hours

They did the 120 hrs was an additions hence 30% within 48hrs/30% within 120hrs (30%/30%)

Quoting 390. SuperStorm093:


Ignored, I have been here for 2 days and ive already heard you say that like 10 times, you have no idea what your talking about and are just a troll and pissed theres nothing to track..You are CUT OFF

I had him on my list from like this morning

Quoting 397. SuperStorm093:
Dont got an attitude, I just voice my opinion like we are aloud to in the US.

Now you got attitude going look just ignore and another thing everything don't revolve around the US so just the same way this blog is not US anymore its now international so we need to work with international law if you want to put it like that
But just to get this clear I'm on the US side freedom of speech

Quoting 401. Tazmanian:

Looking really good for a system that people say is dead due to high SAL
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Good Bye SAL! Say hello to CV season! Whoever put the food on the blog , I totally agree with alot more names , than what you had ! Because I can see a long wave train coming , till the beginning of October , plus alot of home grown stuff !
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Quoting 404. opal92nwf:
This is interesting...

(For the FL Panhandle area)
Long term [sunday through thursday]...
unfortunately this Summer, it seems like a virtual impossible task
to hold on to an upper level ridge over the southeast for any length of
time,
and due to the earlier flooding today, we have pushed back the
extended discussion into this afternoon. Although the trof was
expected to return to the region by Sunday or Monday on the earlier
model runs, with a possible "break" once again before the period
ended, now that the 12 UTC models (especially the ecmwf) have come
in even more pessimistic, this trof may be around for almost the
whole period. This will likely lead to above normal pops, widespread
qpf, and more possible flooding once again. This pattern should also
help keep Max temps down to climo levels or below, with minimums
fairly close to average.


Yeah doesn't seem like we'll ever catch a break from the rain. We'll get a day or two here and there but then we'll get some more monsoonal downpours like I had yesterday, 2.75" in less than an hour! So much for dry air behind the front too, humidity is still at 71% There's a 30% chance of storms tomorrow, 40% Sunday and back up to 60% on Monday, joy, joy, so much for Sunny Florida!
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anyone know where washi is?
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.
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1242 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-021930-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1242 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.NOW...
SHOWER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WILL PUSH TOWARD THE EAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. AS THEY DEVELOP...THEY WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT FORMS AND PUSHES WEST OF I-95. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH
AND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95 AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 192...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT...PRODUCING LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
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wind shear is going back up!
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FLZ070-073>075-173-174-022000-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.NOW...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY...MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ABOUT 5 MPH AND PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 30 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

$$
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Quoting 384. mitchelace5:
Looks like another boring season with recurves.


NO and NOPE and NO. Have you even looked at the high over the Atlantic that is NOT moving?? I ignored someone else that had been saying the same thing...guess you are the same person with new blog name. POOF..ignored (again). Lordy, WU members, why do the the trolls feel they have to come out of the woods and aggrevate those of us who are truly interested in the dynamics of the hurricane season!!???!!!
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91L beginning to sweep a lot of Atmosphere around Central Fla now.

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Quoting 374. weatherlover94:
Im beginning to give a little thought to the wave near the cape verde Islands...it has an area of low pressure with it.
. I totally agree .
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

AMZ650-670-FLZ067-068-168-022000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST
OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL
ZONE FROM TEQUESTA SOUTHWARD TO PALM BEACH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AND
PERIODIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

AMZ650-670-FLZ067-068-168-022000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST
OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL
ZONE FROM TEQUESTA SOUTHWARD TO PALM BEACH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AND
PERIODIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
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Yea, Dr. Masters has made a lot of Blog entries.

I'm way behind one could say,"Posts: 383" but I took a 7 mth sabbatical for Health reasons.

: )
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Saharan dust layer looks like it's starting to thin out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is interesting...

(For the FL Panhandle area)
Long term [sunday through thursday]...
unfortunately this Summer, it seems like a virtual impossible task
to hold on to an upper level ridge over the southeast for any length of
time,
and due to the earlier flooding today, we have pushed back the
extended discussion into this afternoon. Although the trof was
expected to return to the region by Sunday or Monday on the earlier
model runs, with a possible "break" once again before the period
ended, now that the 12 UTC models (especially the ecmwf) have come
in even more pessimistic, this trof may be around for almost the
whole period. This will likely lead to above normal pops, widespread
qpf, and more possible flooding once again. This pattern should also
help keep Max temps down to climo levels or below, with minimums
fairly close to average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
403. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 395. Patrap:


Dr. Masters first entry was April 2005 fo sho'


Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
National Weather Service forecasts to be banned?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:58 AM CDT on April 26, 2005


Dr Masters has posted over 1600 blogs since then ..
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At least no one has of yet stated that ex-Dorian is getting that look!
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Quoting 377. sar2401:

Actually, it's good to hear from you. You were the person I was thinking of when a discussion came up a few days ago of who has the earliest join date. I'm almost positive you are the earliest (semi) active blogger on here.


Must have missed that...I joined to avoid the adds that were slowing down my 'dial up connection' at the time. Most days I check in with the blog three or four times during the day but remain in stealth mode unless I can offer some useful insight on the weather around The Bahamas.
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Quoting 397. SuperStorm093:
Dont got an attitude, I just voice my opinion like we are aloud to in the US.


Ignored.
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I am currently doing AlcoholEdu for UT Austin, and my mind is going numb with boredom. Ex-Dorian isn't helping either.
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Quoting 394. mitchelace5:


Everyone is a frickin' troll to you1 Keep up that attitude pal. I doubt you'll survive here long.
Dont got an attitude, I just voice my opinion like we are aloud to in the US.
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Quoting 383. HurricaneAndre:
I'm gone on vacation bye.


For real this time? Last time you said that, you came back a few hours later...
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Quoting 388. whitewabit:


was in June wasn't it .. I joined in Aug ..


Dr. Masters first entry was April 2005 fo sho'


Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
National Weather Service forecasts to be banned?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:58 AM CDT on April 26, 2005
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Quoting 390. SuperStorm093:


Ignored, I have been here for 2 days and ive already heard you say that like 10 times, you have no idea what your talking about and are just a troll and pissed theres nothing to track..You are CUT OFF


Everyone is a frickin' troll to you. Keep up that attitude pal. I doubt you'll survive here long.
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img src=""> !!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1362
Quoting 316. NasBahMan:


No rain in Nassau, had a moderate rain shower around 3 a.m., Freeport has light rain now and has had some moderate showers on and off, none particularly heavy, Abaco no rain now some light rain last night.


Thanks; us long distance observers cannot assume copious amounts of rain on the ground just from the satt loops because of the overall reflection on the cloud deck (from space)..........Glad to know the actual rain has been light so far over there.
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Quoting 384. mitchelace5:
Looks like another boring season with recurves.
Quoting 384. mitchelace5:
Looks like another boring season with recurves.


Ignored, I have been here for 2 days and ive already heard you say that like 10 times, you have no idea what your talking about and are just a troll and pissed theres nothing to track..You are CUT OFF
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388. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 381. Patrap:
The blogs didnt start till 2005, so...

LOL


was in June wasn't it .. I joined in Aug ..
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Quoting 331. Bluestorm5:


Very impressive analysis from 16 year old :) Better than I could have explained the storm!

Haha thanks :) But lets not get carried away, I know you could have done it better
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Quoting 380. wunderkidcayman:
Ok new TWO 30%/30% with development not expected



I really wish they would have left the time frame alone at 48 hours instead of 120 hours
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385. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 351. Patrap:


I did, and sent a note to Aaron, but his mail is closed.

Its been having issue for 24 plus now.

I can zip a note to Dr. M for expediting it too.



I'll see if I can do anything ..
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Looks like another boring season with recurves.
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I'm gone on vacation bye.
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Issued by The National Weather Service
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL
1:48 pm EDT, Fri., Aug. 2, 2013

... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER TAMPA BAY...

AT 144 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS... PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS OVER TAMPA BAY... OR ABOUT 3 NM NORTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS. THIS STORM RECENTLY PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 32 KNOTS AT ST PETE.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS... LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES... DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES... AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.
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The blogs didnt start till 2005, so...

LOL
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Ok new TWO 30%/30% with development not expected
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 02 Aug 2013

Average for last 30 days 8.8
Average for last 90 days 9.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 5.5
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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