Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

Share this Blog
53
+

After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 528 - 478

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting midgulfmom:
Sar2401 ... thanks for catching me up, nice update! :)

You're quite welcome. Now we'll see if I turn out to be right. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting whitewabit:
Quoting redwagon:


Situations like this are reason for a join-date filter so you don't even have to see comments from people who signed up today, yesterday, the day before, etc.

An auto-hide feature. Set your filter to 0 if you want to see everything and everybody.


not all new members are trolls in fact only as small percentage.. most just want to know what the weather is doing around their location .. a filter would be unfair to those members .. and you may miss a very knowledgeable members comments ..

We have many very good young bloggers .. only the 1 or 2 that troll and the moderators are doing our best to remedy this ..

I 100% disagree with this. Most new members read and lurk before posting. Very few join and then post as soon as the mandatory waiting period is over. I've seen very few people whose join date is in the last three days with 20 or 25 posts who are anything but an annoyance. An option to filter on join dates within 3-5 days of today would cause very few good posts to be hidden, but it would wipe out the vast majority of really vicious trolls. I don't run the joint, so just my opinion, but I've seen this option on other blogs I belong to.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting 456. whitewabit:
Please do not quote Trolls .. you may find yourself banned for it ..


Wouldn't it be nice if the Mod's could change the trolls avatars to pictures of trolls, that way everyone would know who they could quote and who to avoid!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sar2401 ... thanks for catching me up, nice update! :)
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1163
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you for the site PATRAP. Beautiful pictures. Forwarded your hurricane preparedness suggestions to all recent transplants to the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are the HH's going to fly the system today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
521. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 507. redwagon:


Well, as you've noticed, the trolls tend to join and attack in groups of 4-5, each make a useless post every five minutes or less, obscuring the important posts such that you have to constantly scroll way back to find the posts you want and need. An 80/20 noise-to-signal ratio that could put the signal back to 100% with a simple software addon.


At one time we were all new here..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 438. Patrap:
Well to be sure Viking, a lot went into severe weather Live blogging and sharing our family's K experience.





You have been one of my favorite bloggers since the blog began, always offering useful links, I'm sure over the years I have bookmarked more of your links than all the other bloggers links combined so thanks for that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 511. sar2401:

The BAMD is a statistical model meant for deep, well stacked storms. It's the least likely model to be right with 91L.


I very well know that I was just saying it as a kind of joke but yeah I know what BAMD is thank you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
518. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting redwagon:


Situations like this are reason for a join-date filter so you don't even have to see comments from people who signed up today, yesterday, the day before, etc.

An auto-hide feature. Set your filter to 0 if you want to see everything and everybody.


not all new members are trolls in fact only as small percentage.. most just want to know what the weather is doing around their location .. a filter would be unfair to those members .. and you may miss a very knowledgeable members comments ..

We have many very good young bloggers .. only the 1 or 2 that troll and the moderators are doing our best to remedy this ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31545
Quoting redwagon:


Well, as you've noticed, the trolls tend to join and attack in groups of 4-5, each make a useless post every five minutes or less, obscuring the important posts such that you have to constantly scroll way back to find the posts you want and need. An 80/20 noise-to-signal ratio that could put the signal back to 100% with a simple software addon.

Couldn't agree more and, while I don't know what the blog uses for software, this kind of thing is usually about 10 lines of code and a drop down box. I have no idea why WU simply has refused to implement it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 493. GetReal:


Disorganized is how the NHC described it... And that is how I see it. Best estimate, I would place the center actually about 30 miles east of Vero Beach, and the center earlier more apparent on radar almost due east of Melbourne has weakened and moved ever so slightly west or west-southwest as it weakens. The area that I refer to, I see yellows/oranges on radar moving west on the north side, and east/northeast on the south side.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting 468. whitewabit:


Taz .. it also is not your job .
+ 1458
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, basically you are saying people who just enjoy the blog have no business making a comment...


Quoting 507. redwagon:


Well, as you've noticed, the trolls tend to join and attack in groups of 4-5, each make a useless post every five minutes or less, obscuring the important posts such that you have to constantly scroll way back to find the posts you want and need. An 80/20 noise-to-signal ratio that could put the signal back to 100% with a simple software addon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Looks like BAMD is the only one to catch something close

The BAMD is a statistical model meant for deep, well stacked storms. It's the least likely model to be right with 91L.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting 471. Patrap:
Looks like big swirl will eat little swirl and make big swirl a little bigger....Really nice banding coming together on the right.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 501. mrmombq:
Ya I see that too, I thought this thing was suppose to go north - northeast?


So did the forecasts, but Dorian has been making us all second guess for a while now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 498. sar2401:

Now that's a good suggestion. It won't happen, but it's a good suggestion. I've suggested this in the past, hence my pessimistic attitude.


Well, as you've noticed, the trolls tend to join and attack in groups of 4-5, each make a useless post every five minutes or less, obscuring the important posts such that you have to constantly scroll way back to find the posts you want and need. An 80/20 noise-to-signal ratio that could put the signal back to 100% with a simple software addon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrmombq:
Ya I see that too, I thought this thing was suppose to go north - northeast?

The main part of the system is going NE, as can be seen on the Western Atlantic AVN satellite. The original low is moving slowly west and onshore but it appears not be a big rainmaker. I think Florida gets off easy from this one.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Wow. It's really uptight in here today. This is the internet, right? Does Disney now own Wunderground, too? Where's my password sheet....I think I need to go visit DestinJeff...

Oh, btw, if you just joined like 3 weeks ago....you might want to think about giving people the benefit of the doubt. Just food for thought.

Out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 501. mrmombq:
Ya I see that too, I thought this thing was suppose to go north - northeast?

Looks like BAMD is the only one to catch something close
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
sure looks like the tail end is moving into south florida...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Good Afternoon! Just stopped in to check on things. Must be a lot going on. It took my Kindle about 10min, at least, to load the page. So xDorian is stationary? "Like Sand through the hourglass, so are the days of xDorian"... Oops....having posted this, I've got to reload and refresh again. Where's my coffee?

Lots of radars and satellite images slowing things down. 91L appears to be splitting, with original low going ashore somewhere around Melbourne and a new low forming north of the Bahamas. It's not going to do much more where it's at now, but the new trough to the NE may be an area to watch as it moves out to sea, over some pretty warm water and low shear.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting 495. wunderkidcayman:

Thank you you see it too !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ya I see that too, I thought this thing was suppose to go north - northeast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no rain yet in Broward County...amazing. Wish they all did this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:


Situations like this are reason for a join-date filter so you don't even have to see comments from people who signed up today, yesterday, the day before, etc.

An auto-hide feature. Set your filter to 0 if you want to see everything and everybody.

Now that's a good suggestion. It won't happen, but it's a good suggestion. I've suggested this in the past, hence my pessimistic attitude.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting 484. RascalNag:


It's possible I think; the winds look like they would either take it out to sea or bring it hard west right now. But it could just be a jog, and as the front comes along it will push harder...


Yeah, I definitely do not believe it is going to make it to shore. At least the hope is that it will be deflected N/NE by the frontal trough. But... this thing has been defiant its whole life cycle... Forming in an area not climatologically favored... Fought SAL for awhile before losing its battle when shear was introduced... Etc, etc, etc. This thing is a headache...
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
big storm cell forming by Tampa
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 462. ecflweatherfan:
Is it my eyes playing tricks on me, or does the circulation east of Melbourne appear to be drifting ever so slowly W or even WSW (around 2 mph)? Seems as if the shower activity is beginning to increase around it just a bit.

Thank you you see it too !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
Quoting whitewabit:


91's present LLC looks to be going ashore near Melbourne ..

I think that's correct, and a new trough is forming to the NE along the line of showers/thundershowers to to north of the Bahamas. IMHO, this is a new low, unrelated to Dorian, and will be the one with some chance of development. We'll see what the NHC thinks.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Note here how the Overall is beginning to take shape in the last frames.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 486. wxchaser97:

Depends on what your definition of "done" is. Invest 91L still has a chance, albeit kind of low, to develop before it gets absorbed into the trough.



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Afternoon! Just stopped in to check on things. Must be a lot going on. It took my Kindle about 10min, at least, to load the page. So xDorian is stationary? "Like Sand through the hourglass, so are the days of xDorian"... Oops....having posted this, I've got to reload and refresh again. Where's my coffee?
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1163
Quoting IKE:

5m
Watching gulf next week for development. Remnants of Dorian could pop, but will be taking off to northeast even if they do.

I'll be darned. I'm writing this down in my calendar. I actually agree with one of Big Joe's tweets. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
The surface Low off of Melbourne and the Mid Level one to the South are doing a fair job of aligning the last Hour.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
487. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 484. RascalNag:


It's possible I think; the winds look like they would either take it out to sea or bring it hard west right now. But it could just be a jog, and as the front comes along it will push harder...


91's present LLC looks to be going ashore near Melbourne ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31545
Quoting 474. Tazmanian:



nop 91L is done

Depends on what your definition of "done" is. Invest 91L still has a chance, albeit kind of low, to develop before it gets absorbed into the trough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 462. ecflweatherfan:
Is it my eyes playing tricks on me, or does the circulation east of Melbourne appear to be drifting ever so slowly W or even WSW (around 2 mph)? Seems as if the shower activity is beginning to increase around it just a bit.


It's possible I think; the winds look like they would either take it out to sea or bring it hard west right now. But it could just be a jog, and as the front comes along it will push harder...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 478. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks taz




welcome
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Link to close up and detailed look at this system. I may have to change my earlier opinion on ex-Dorian. Convection is NOT dying as it has in the past at this time of day, and is actually building deep convection near a LLC to the ESE of West Palm Beach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
480. IKE

5m
Watching gulf next week for development. Remnants of Dorian could pop, but will be taking off to northeast even if they do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lucky ex dorian is not crossing over fl. the lakes are already full and cv is just beginning. might be more coming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 473. Tazmanian:



no comet moveing on
thanks taz
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 528 - 478

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
65 °F
Overcast