Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 489. sar2401:

I'll be darned. I'm writing this down in my calendar. I actually agree with one of Big Joe's tweets. :-)

Could you elaborate on how this scenario is possible? Tia
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577. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT coastal & higher res..

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576. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 569. hydrus:
This radar loop shows how fast it is pulling in moisture from the state of Florida..It is impressive..

Link


whats the web address for that radar ??
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Quoting 542. ecflweatherfan:



Or make it a paid site, where you can't post any comments until you have paid a membership fee. No "troll" is going to pay to make stupid comments unrelated to topics, or without an genuine interest to REALLY learn or help to teach others. They are not going to waste their time or money if they have to pay. They have a bunch of selfish ambitions, so why give their money (let someone else pay for them). I learn a lot of things on here from great bloggers... but the "trolls", as often referred to, just gum up the works with a bunch of nonsense.


If we had to pay JUST to blog and make comments, I wouldnt be here. And I bet atleast 40% of the others wouldnt either.
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Quoting 572. Stormchaser2007:
Percentages on this are probably going to need to be increased.

The LLC is organizing rather quickly.



Hi Sc2007! Do you think that 91L will be able to acquire TS status?
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Percentages on this are probably going to need to be increased.

The LLC is organizing rather quickly.


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Quoting 569. hydrus:
This radar loop shows how fast it is pulling in moisture from the state of Florida..It is impressive..

Link

Ummm, that's Northern IL.
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These systems are pretty amazing really. A system can traverse the entire Atlantic Ocean. Slam on the brakes 30 miles from the US and turn and go back out to sea. Weather is truly amazing
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This radar loop shows how fast it is pulling in moisture from the state of Florida..It is impressive..

Link
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Sooo whats going on with ole Dorian or 91L.
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Some of these ignore comments and troll comments generally are what make me afraid to post on here too often. I have a decent knowledge of meteorology/tropical meteorology (I'm no genius, that's why I come here to see the opinions of others and compare them to my own) and I like to comment and add my two cents, but sometimes the response to people who dont post very often is quite negative!
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What is up with the dates on these models, which are posted here?

Are we in a time-warp?



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565. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 562. 69Viking:


This could get bad for SE Florida if this system doesn't get moving. Storms are going to train over the same area for some time it looks like!


Lake O sure doesn't need any more water going into it ..
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The absence of wind barbs over 91L, Is that an indication of anything?
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Quoting 536. Patrap:



000
NOUS42 KNHC 021509
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 02 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-063 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN CANCELLED BY NHC AT 02/1145Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD


Nope, the HH are going to drive into the system instead.
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Quoting 471. Patrap:


This could get bad for SE Florida if this system doesn't get moving. Storms are going to train over the same area for some time it looks like!
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Quoting 383. HurricaneAndre:
I'm gone on vacation bye.
I believe you have say the same thing at least 3 times in the past week.Have good vacation though.
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The SAL is now over Puerto Rico and the eastern Caribbean. It should be in my area by Saturday


BTW, I took this pic of the sunset in central Jamaica a couple days ago.
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558. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 554. sar2401:

You then have to remember who you ignored and go through many pages of names to unignore someone. The auto hide is a simple feature and self-terminates. It's either a good idea or not, but nothing we have is the equivalent.


lets take any further comments on this subject to sensitivethug blog ..
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Quoting Astrometeor:
I think I understand Dorian now. He goes "Oh, hey, look the NHC canceled the HH flight, I think I'll go and organize myself now". Sneaky little thing.

Hehe. They will fly it, but it will be out to the NE, not where it is now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
Quoting 551. Astrometeor:
I think I understand Dorian now. He goes "Oh, hey, look the NHC canceled the HH flight, I think I'll go and organize myself now". Sneaky little thing.


Lol I think Dorian reads the NHC products and this blog.
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.NOW...
BY MID AFTERNOON...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE TREASURE COAST AND WAS
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAD FORMED AS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORT PIERCE INLET AND WAS DRIFTING INLAND. THE SEA
BREEZE HAD PUSHED WEST OF I-95 NORTH OF VERO BEACH BUT WAS
LANGUISHING ALONG THE CORRIDOR FURTHER SOUTH.

SHOWER BANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM INDIAN RIVER SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT. CELLS WITHIN THE BANDS WERE TRAINING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95 SOUTH OF STATE ROAD 60 AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN STATE ROADS 70 AND 76.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
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Quoting whitewabit:


the present system lets you do that through the Ignore button ..

You then have to remember who you ignored and go through many pages of names to unignore someone. The auto hide is a simple feature and self-terminates. It's either a good idea or not, but nothing we have now is the equivalent.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
Well, My thoughts the other day was this would be an open wave all the way into the gulf then have a shot a doing something. As much as we need rain here in Texas I am glad I was wrong and its going to be swept out to sea.
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Quoting 422. wunderkidcayman:
But just to get this clear I'm on the US side freedom of speech



So were Mr. Manning and Mr. Snowden, so you'd better look out.
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I think I understand Dorian now. He goes "Oh, hey, look the NHC canceled the HH flight, I think I'll go and organize myself now". Sneaky little thing.
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Looks just south of Western Grand Bahama, almost due south of Freeport.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FLZ067-068-168-021945-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM
BEACH COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 305 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTH COUNTY AIRPORT...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
CALOOSA...
JUPITER FARMS...
NORTH COUNTY AIRPORT...
THE ACREAGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2688 8010 2678 8018 2674 8023 2691 8039
2696 8035 2696 8015 2696 8014 2694 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 309DEG 15KT 2690 8027

$$
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Quoting GrumpyWeather:
Hello everyone, friendly reminder that the ignore feature is your friend. It has worked for me every time a troll is detected.

Partly cloudy skies in Miami. No sign of ex-Dorian.

The Miami Chamber of Commerce had a night long prayer session about 91L...or so I heard. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
Quoting auburn:


At one time we were all new here..

Yes, we were, and I think I read and lurked for at least a month before I made my first post. I've already made my point on this, so no need to repeat it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
91L
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Hello everyone, friendly reminder that the ignore feature is your friend. It has worked for me every time a troll is detected.

Partly cloudy skies in Miami. No sign of ex-Dorian.
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543. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 538. redwagon:


The proposed fix would let you un-hide an auto-hid comment just like you can today. Of course we get great new bloggers all the time. They shouldn't have to wade through troll attacks, either.


the present system lets you do that through the Ignore button ..
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Quoting 498. sar2401:

Now that's a good suggestion. It won't happen, but it's a good suggestion. I've suggested this in the past, hence my pessimistic attitude.



Or make it a paid site, where you can't post any comments until you have paid a membership fee. No "troll" is going to pay to make stupid comments unrelated to topics, or without an genuine interest to REALLY learn or help to teach others. They are not going to waste their time or money if they have to pay. They have a bunch of selfish ambitions, so why give their money (let someone else pay for them). I learn a lot of things on here from great bloggers... but the "trolls", as often referred to, just gum up the works with a bunch of nonsense.
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Quoting 537. sar2401:

It said they cancelled the flight in the 8:00 TWO.


Yep

Quoting 539. MisterPerfect:
jogging west a bit?

I was thinking more WSW
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Quoting 536. Patrap:



000
NOUS42 KNHC 021509
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 02 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-063 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN CANCELLED BY NHC AT 02/1145Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD

So yes saw it from TCPOD them self
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jogging west a bit?
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Quoting 518. whitewabit & Auburn:
Quoting redwagon:


Situations like this are reason for a join-date filter so you don't even have to see comments from people who signed up today, yesterday, the day before, etc.

An auto-hide feature. Set your filter to 0 if you want to see everything and everybody.


not all new members are trolls in fact only as small percentage.. most just want to know what the weather is doing around their location .. a filter would be unfair to those members .. and you may miss a very knowledgeable members comments ..

We have many very good young bloggers .. only the 1 or 2 that troll and the moderators are doing our best to remedy this ..


The proposed fix would let you un-hide an auto-hid comment just like you can today. Of course we get great new bloggers all the time. They shouldn't have to wade through troll attacks, either.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

So I heard correctly then

It said they cancelled the flight in the 8:00 TWO.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
Quoting 522. SCwannabee:
Are the HH's going to fly the system today?



000
NOUS42 KNHC 021509
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 02 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-063 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN CANCELLED BY NHC AT 02/1145Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD
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Quoting NasBahMan:


Wouldn't it be nice if the Mod's could change the trolls avatars to pictures of trolls, that way everyone would know who they could quote and who to avoid!

Probably some kind of issues with libel and such....:-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
Quoting 531. sar2401:

No, the flight was cancelled.

So I heard correctly then
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Quoting 522. SCwannabee:
Are the HH's going to fly the system today?

Maybe maybe not last I heard recon was cancelled
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Quoting SCwannabee:
Are the HH's going to fly the system today?

No, the flight was cancelled.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
520. NasBahMan

Why thanks,that is very kind.

I think the best part of Blogging here is the sharing..

We were social networking here way before the whole net was.

And to be sure, the portlight Genesis began right here.

From good works come great things.

Portlight Honored with 1 WTC Flag
Posted by: Portlight, 9:54 AM CDT on July 24, 2013
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Quoting 518. whitewabit:
Quoting redwagon:


Situations like this are reason for a join-date filter so you don't even have to see comments from people who signed up today, yesterday, the day before, etc.

An auto-hide feature. Set your filter to 0 if you want to see everything and everybody.


not all new members are trolls in fact only as small percentage.. most just want to know what the weather is doing around their location .. a filter would be unfair to those members .. and you may miss a very knowledgeable members comments ..

We have many very good young bloggers .. only the 1 or 2 that troll and the moderators are doing our best to remedy this ..

Yes this is very true and we thank you and the other Moderators for what you are doing for us to make the blogs run smoothly
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Sar2401 ... thanks for catching me up, nice update! :)

You're quite welcome. Now we'll see if I turn out to be right. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.