Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 614. Skyepony:
That buoy & poles near the North Pole is something to see since that melt water left..


pitted ice from standing melt water then it all drains away into the sea
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Quoting 589. Skyepony:
Wow fresh OSCAT of the wave off Africa. Got rotation.. North side of that is dusted in..

Not so much the dust is moderate to weak and weakening plus a big moisture plume that came off with it should keep dust weakening and in check


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11956
626. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 614. Skyepony:
That buoy & poles near the North Pole is something to see since that melt water left..




didn't someone find out that those buoys are over 300 miles from the N Pole ?? they have drifted that far south with the current moving the ice ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
Quoting 622. sar2401:

There you go again...blasting the hopes of the young. :-)
more like basting..
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Quoting canehater1:
Dorian may have the WU record for annoying disturbances....

Nah, look at 2012 Karen. Even the NHC forecasters were ready to fly out and strangle it. :-)
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Interesting pre-blobster is south Cab-sea. What say you Grothar???
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Quoting NasBahMan:


Good idea since the winds in Freeport Grand Bahama are howling out of the SSW at 16 MPH right now!

There you go again...blasting the hopes of the young. :-)
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Whenever a season gets into august and we havent seen a hurricane I always reminisce. Go back to storms that had such intense structure and unpredictable tracks and intensification. Its the only way I know to build hope that this season will fire up soon enough!
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Quoting Skyepony:
That buoy & poles near the North Pole is something to see since that melt water left..



Now that would make a really lousy hockey rink. :-)
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Quoting 558. whitewabit:


lets take any further comments on this subject to sensitivethug blog ..


I further detailed the auto-hide on the sensitivethug blog, thank you for directing me to it.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:

The December 31, 1969 (12/31/69) means that the date variable when that graphic was generated was invalid or uninitialized to some valid value. Happens in several languages, including PHP.

There is something called "The Unix Epoch". Unix operating systems measure time as number of seconds/cycles since 1/1/1970 (making 12/31/69 invalid ;)

PCs used to have problems with the battery on the motherboard would die (which saves your BIOS settings when your machine is off/unplugged). An immediate tip-off that this was a problem was that the datestamp read 1/1/80 (Microsoft/DOS epoch).

Mac is 1/1/1904. Windows is 1/1/1601. Cool huh?

Source: Programmer since before Grothar's time.


Don't forget all those date windows we created to fix Y2K either. I think some of them start to run out in, what, 2017 or something like that. As I recall, Win 95 is one that will stop giving correct dates at the end of that window, and Microsoft said they have no intention of fixing it.

Source: Programmer who remembers when 8" floppy disks were the most amazing thing ever created. :-)
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616. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (T1309)
3:00 AM JST August 3 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Jebi (985 hPa) located at 20.3N 109.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 22.3N 103.7E - Tropical Depression Overland northeastern Vietnam
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FLZ067-068-168-022030-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL
338 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM
BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM
45 TO 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALM BEACH GARDENS...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
NORTH PALM BEACH...
RIVIERA BEACH...
MANGONIA PARK...
HAVERHILL...
WEST PALM BEACH...
GLEN RIDGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2657 8018 2681 8030 2687 8017 2695 8007
2687 8004 2680 8003 2664 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 336DEG 16KT 2679 8016

$$

10
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614. Skyepony (Mod)
That buoy & poles near the North Pole is something to see since that melt water left..


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Quoting 580. LargoFl:
Is there a chance 91L can get strong enough..or stall long enough NOT to get caught up in the trough?
Largo see my post# 582,just some thoughts about this system stalling,and not pick-up by the front coming down.
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612. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 603. hydrus:
Next Generation Weather Lab. College of Dupage...Link


TKS will check it out ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
The best low level turning remains east of central Florida where the 850mb vorticity center and 700mb vorticity center align and banding seems to be flowing towards.
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting 605. odinslightning:
like i said 2 days ago, i will remember Dorian with one word..... persistent......

Agreed.
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Here it is


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Quoting 581. 62901IL:

My take:
Depression at the least, weak 45mph TS as the most.
TS watches or warnings might need to be issued for Florida and maybe the bahamas if this becomes a TD or TS soon.


Good idea since the winds in Freeport Grand Bahama are howling out of the SSW at 16 MPH right now!
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Dorian may have the WU record for annoying disturbances....
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like i said 2 days ago, i will remember Dorian with one word..... persistent......
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something just blew up around Lake O..

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
Quoting 576. whitewabit:


whats the web address for that radar ??
Next Generation Weather Lab. College of Dupage...Link
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602. auburn (Mod)
Please take this type conversation to your blog or sensitivethugs blog..thanks :)




Quoting SCwannabee:
So, basically you are saying people who just enjoy the blog have no business making a comment...



Quoting 587. sar2401:

That's not what I was saying. For example, your join date is almost 2 weeks ago, which would put you outside of what I would use as a filter. You also have 6 posts, which is about what most new members have. You need to be here when we have one guy in particular, who has admitted proudly, that he joins repeatedly just to post some of the most vile stuff you've ever seen. We also have people, both young and old, who join when there's a storm around, literally to post complete nonsense and get what to them is their five minutes of fame. I can't ignore anyone until they've made their first post. The really bad trolls make 10 posts in five minutes, all stuff you wouldn't want any child to see. The system of moderators we have this year has vastly improved the situation from previous years, when there were times the blog became unusable due to troll attacks, so this is not a slam at the moderators. It's just another method to allow a member to filter what he or she sees, just like the ignore button, except it self-terminates after whatever time period you've set on join dates. Regardless of join dates, you still have the option of ignoring someone, and I have names on my list that are by no means new members.
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Quoting 589. Skyepony:
Wow fresh OSCAT of the wave coming off Africa. Got rotation.. North side of that is dusted in..


0.o Figures the wave I ignore does this. I picked a wave to watch(Tagged WAVE SPL) a week ago, and it has so little convection I caint find it on satellite.
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Quoting Levi32:
The cirrus clouds racing down from the north at the end of this loop represent suppressive NE flow that will likely keep ex-Dorian sheared and in check. It's not impossible he could grab tropical depression status first, given a circulation exists.


As much of a "downcaster" as I've been on 91L, I do think it has a shot at TD status ash he gets picked up by the trough and moves NE. It would be kind of cool to see it regain TD/TS status as it moves out to sea, bothering no one but the fish. Of course, I don't want it to turn into another interminable 2012 Karen either. :0(
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wow its just about mixing with the westcoast seabreeze storms..
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The December 31, 1969 (12/31/69) means that the date variable when that graphic was generated was invalid or uninitialized to some valid value. Happens in several languages, including PHP.

There is something called "The Unix Epoch". Unix operating systems measure time as number of seconds/cycles since 1/1/1970 (making 12/31/69 invalid ;)

PCs used to have problems with the battery on the motherboard, when it would eventually die (which saves your BIOS settings when your machine is off/unplugged). An immediate tip-off that this was a problem was that the datestamp read 1/1/80 (Microsoft/DOS epoch).

Mac is 1/1/1904. Windows is 1/1/1601. Cool huh?

Source: Programmer since before Grothar's time.

Quoting 566. OracleDeAtlantis:
What is up with the dates on these models, which are posted here?

Are we in a time-warp?



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597. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 589. Skyepony:
Wow fresh OSCAT of the wave off Africa. Got rotation.. North side of that is dusted in..


looks impressive so far lets see if the SAL gets it ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
Could it be possible that the northern and southern circulations of 91L are doing done Fujiwhara? Could be the reason the older LLC is possibly going inland.


Also, what would the prospects be for the northern LLC's survival be should it go inland? Might the flat terrain of Florida and maybe some leeching of strength from the newer circulation keep it alive long enough to get to the gulf?
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595. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 587. sar2401:

That's not what I was saying. For example, your join date is almost 2 weeks ago, which would put you outside of what I would use as a filter. You also have 6 posts, which is about what most new members have. You need to be here when we have one guy in particular, who has admitted proudly, that he joins repeatedly just to post some of the most vile stuff you've ever seen. We also have people, both young and old, who join when there's a storm around, literally to post complete nonsense and get what to them is their five minutes of fame. I can't ignore anyone until they've made their first post. The really bad trolls make 10 posts in five minutes, all stuff you wouldn't want any child to see. The system of moderators we have this year has vastly improved the situation from previous years, when there were times the blog became unusable due to troll attacks, so this is not a slam at the moderators. It's just another method to allow a member to filter what he or she sees, just like the ignore button, except it self-terminates after whatever time period you've set on join dates. Regardless of join dates, you still have the option of ignoring someone, and I have names on my list that are by no means new members.


as I said before lets take comments on this subject to sensitivethug blog ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
Quoting 583. Levi32:
The cirrus clouds racing down from the north at the end of this loop represent suppressive NE flow that will likely keep ex-Dorian sheared and in check. It's not impossible he could grab tropical depression status first, given a circulation exists.

I noticed that..And they are racing..So no T.S.Dorian.?
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Here is "Gerda" from the 1969 season, if anyone is following the time-warp we're apparently in.

It's the only track that comes close.

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Quoting 589. Skyepony:
Wow fresh OSCAT of the wave coming off Africa. Got rotation.. North side of that is dusted in..

It isn't closed either.
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At 1800 UTC, 02 August 2013, TROPICAL WAVE DORIAN (AL91) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 27.9°N and 79.5°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 350 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb.
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Quoting 583. Levi32:
The cirrus clouds racing down from the north at the end of this loop represent suppressive NE flow that will likely keep ex-Dorian in check. It's not impossible he could grab tropical depression status first, given a circulation exists.

Lol just with these post you crush a lot of dreams Levi.:D. This system reminds me of Bonnie in terms of looks.
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589. Skyepony (Mod)
Wow fresh OSCAT of the wave off Africa. Got rotation.. North side of that is dusted in..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting SCwannabee:
So, basically you are saying people who just enjoy the blog have no business making a comment...



That's not what I was saying. For example, your join date is almost 2 weeks ago, which would put you outside of what I would use as a filter. You also have 6 posts, which is about what most new members have. You need to be here when we have one guy in particular, who has admitted proudly, that he joins repeatedly just to post some of the most vile stuff you've ever seen. We also have people, both young and old, who join when there's a storm around, literally to post complete nonsense and get what to them is their five minutes of fame. I can't ignore anyone until they've made their first post. The really bad trolls make 10 posts in five minutes, all stuff you wouldn't want any child to see. The system of moderators we have this year has vastly improved the situation from previous years, when there were times the blog became unusable due to troll attacks, so this is not a slam at the moderators. It's just another method to allow a member to filter what he or she sees, just like the ignore button, except it self-terminates after whatever time period you've set on join dates. Regardless of join dates, you still have the option of ignoring someone, and I have names on my list that are by no means new members.
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Quoting 564. HurricaneHunterJoe:


The absence of wind barbs over 91L, Is that an indication of anything?


There aint wind barbs over the other areas of convection either. Note the thunderstorms around the Caribbean. :D
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting 577. Skyepony:
ASCAT coastal & higher res..


Doesn't look closed to me.
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The cirrus clouds racing down from the north at the end of this loop represent suppressive NE flow that will likely keep ex-Dorian sheared and in check. It's not impossible he could grab tropical depression status first, given a circulation exists.

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Quoting 564. HurricaneHunterJoe:


The absence of wind barbs over 91L, Is that an indication of anything?
In my humble opinion,and looking at the front coming down,I believe and again this is just me thinking and looking,that maybe the front will not be strong enough to take the entire system up to the NE,and maybe some energy or a lot will stay out of the South East Coast of Florida,in another words that worth that can happens is for this system to STALL on the East Coast,any comments from the expert about this observation.Thanks!!!
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Quoting 572. Stormchaser2007:
Percentages on this are probably going to need to be increased.

The LLC is organizing rather quickly.



My take:
Depression at the least, weak 45mph TS as the most.
TS watches or warnings might need to be issued for Florida and maybe the bahamas if this becomes a TD or TS soon.
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Is there a chance 91L can get strong enough..or stall long enough NOT to get caught up in the trough?
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This system is organizing quickly..jmo
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Quoting 489. sar2401:

I'll be darned. I'm writing this down in my calendar. I actually agree with one of Big Joe's tweets. :-)

Could you elaborate on how this scenario is possible? Tia
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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