Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 672. Grothar:
Hey, the top of the page here disappeared. No mail and no way to get to our blogs.


It is still there for me. It just looks very different. This happened a few times over the past few days. There is a drop down box under your username.
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Quoting 672. Grothar:
Hey, the top of the page here disappeared. No mail and no way to get to our blogs.
did ya scroll up
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Quoting 653. PalmBeachWeather:
I hear some rumbling outside.Not sure if it is thunder or my redneck neighbor shooting his "spud gun" again....Geeez


you must live near me...
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wunderyakuza has unleashed the "Alert Banner" for feedback.

The mail icon is still there, your eyes are jus old.

ACK!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 672. Grothar:
Hey, the top of the page here disappeared. No mail and no way to get to our blogs.
Sure did....I cleaned my reading glasses 3 times thinking it was me....Whew!!
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Quoting 658. Fishizzle:
It is UGLY out my office window right now here in West Palm Beach.
Looks pretty nasty
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Hey, the top of the page here disappeared. No mail and no way to get to our blogs.
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Despite this cooling, SSTs across the MDR are still somewhat above their
climatological averages (Figure 11). In addition, two early season TCs formed in the
MDR (Chantal and Dorian). From a climatological perspective, thermodynamics are
typically what restricts early season TC development in the MDR, and consequently, the
development of Chantal and Dorian indicates that MDR thermodynamics are not
particularly unfavorable. Table 9 displays the 10 seasons since 1851 that have had two
storms form in the MDR prior to 1 August. All of these years had at least average
activity, with many of these seasons being very active.
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Quoting 668. Gearsts:
CSU --->Link


Dangerous season for Caribbean.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14553
Quoting 665. sar2401:

Ahem...I think that's what I said yesterday. :-)
Let me call Jase Robertson...He's pretty smart
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CSU --->Link

Information obtained through July 2013 indicates that the remainder of the 2013
Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1981-2010 season. We
estimate that the remainder of 2013 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 14
named storms (average is 10.5), 75 named storm days (average is 58), 35 hurricane days
(average is 21.3), 3 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.0) and 7 major
hurricane days (average is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and
Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2013 season is estimated to
be above its long-period average. We expect the remainder of the Atlantic basin
hurricane season to accrue Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity approximately 140
percent of the seasonal average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from
early April and early June, due to anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the
tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic.
This forecast was based on a newly-developed extended-range early August
statistical prediction scheme developed over the previous 33 years. An earlier statistical
model that was utilized for several years has also been consulted. Analog predictors were
also considered.
Cool neutral ENSO conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific, and we
believe that these conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of the Atlantic
hurricane season. While sea level pressure anomalies across the tropical Atlantic have
been relatively low during June and July, sea surface temperatures have anomalously
cooled in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. These cooler SSTs are typically
associated with less favorable thermodynamic conditions which we believe could cause
slightly less TC activity than expected earlier.
Starting today and issued every two weeks following (e.g., August 16, August 30,
etc), we will issue two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season from August-October. A late-season forecast for the Caribbean
basin will be issued on Tuesday, October 1.
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Is WunderYakuza playing around? Top of the webpage changed (using Chrome).
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Good evening from Germany, which has experienced its second hottest day this year. The lead hit 38C (100,4F) at my place in the center of the city Mainz at Rhine River; official readings outside the town were 2 degrees C less, though. Some places in Northern Germany may have reached their all time record of recorded heat; we'll see the assessment later. Fortunately it will be cooler next week and should hopefully stay that way.

Moreover numbers are out of the severe hailstorm which hit Swabia a week ago (maybe you remember the pics of golf ball sized hail bombs). For insurances this pans out to be the second costliest hail damage in Germany's history with more than a half billion Euro (nearly 600 million Euro = 797 million dollars) of damage. German article here.

Hard time for insurances in Germany, after the terrible costly flooding catastrophy in June!

And concerning Ex-Dorian: I must say I'm impressed once again. Much improvement since I left the blog some hours earlier to visit a person in hospital (in a room with A/C ---- ahhhh, nice). But the clouds from the north are really moving in with tremendous speed. Let's see how this works out.
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Quoting Grothar:
all models bring 91L to the North and NE. Case closed.


Ahem...I think that's what I said yesterday. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16278
Tightening up

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Quoting 641. Grothar:


I posted a whole entry on that this morning and an image of it. Please stay on top of these things. I was even asked for a BlobCon level and I assigned it a 1.





Hmm, looks like something might be trying to sneak up on us, good call Grothar! Well it's time for Happy Hour so talk at you later, have a good weekend!
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Quoting 661. PalmBeachWeather:
But, But..?

case closed. no buts.
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Quoting 656. Grothar:
all models bring 91L to the North and NE. Case closed.

But, But..?
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Quoting 652. RascalNag:


Do you think it might significantly affect its steering?


its going to be pulled nne soon
start maybe just before or after midnight
its got 7 hrs
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Quoting LargoFl:
you can really see the spin now............

Be careful about using short range radar to see spin in a low. What you're seeing is the circulation that exists in all thunderstorms, and the limits of the radar make it appear to be more substantial than it is. The long range radar out of Miami gives a better picture of the circulation of the low itself.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16278
It is UGLY out my office window right now here in West Palm Beach.
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Take heart Texas. Maybe some of this could mean rain? Euro still not budging from moving its blob east to west across the gulf this way. Starting at 120 hrs now. At 850 level. The GFS pretty much does the same but at the 500 level. And a little later. Though they don't look to be from the same place.



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all models bring 91L to the North and NE. Case closed.

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Quoting 567. Mclem1:
Some of these ignore comments and troll comments generally are what make me afraid to post on here too often. I have a decent knowledge of meteorology/tropical meteorology (I'm no genius, that's why I come here to see the opinions of others and compare them to my own) and I like to comment and add my two cents, but sometimes the response to people who dont post very often is quite negative!


Second this. I've been reading through comments on this blog for hours every day, as I've recently become very interested in meteorology and what is happening in the Atlantic.

I have two concerns with the ongoing, never-ending troll discussion:

(1) I haven't been able to identify a pattern that make a comment 'trollish'. For example, is the use of words 'boring' or 'awesome' generally inappropriate? (If you must identify a comment as trollish, can you please specify the reason for the dozens of other people reading your comment?)

(2) Many comments are about how this or that comment is 'given by a troll' or 'feeding the troll' or about the ignore function and this is very boring. (Is there a filter for every comment that has the term 'troll' or 'ignore'?)

Back to topic, I have some questions about learning from this blog:

(a) Comments that are images: comments are frequently just a recent image -- what is the purpose of these images? Since they can often be found, for example, on the NHC webpage, I'm guessing they are intended to make a statement, such as, 'look at that lack of convergence!' but as someone who doesn't know how to read those images yet, I usually can't guess what the message is. Is there some way I can unobtrusively learn more, such as beginning a chat with individual posters? Or maybe there is a different reason for systematically posting these images?

(b) Recurving: someone mentioned that storms should not recurve since there is a high sitting in the Atlantic. How does this square with most models predicting 91L is curving east later?





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654. txjac
I'm visiting Ohio for the next two weeks ...weather in Texas going to remain ok?
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I hear some rumbling outside.Not sure if it is thunder or my redneck neighbor shooting his "spud gun" again....Geeez
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Quoting 650. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gets a better chance to do somem


Do you think it might significantly affect its steering?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 646. RascalNag:
What happens if Dorian stalls too long? The LLC is only barely moving north it seems.
gets a better chance to do somem
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
you can really see the spin now............
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Quoting 626. whitewabit:


didn't someone find out that those buoys are over 300 miles from the N Pole ?? they have drifted that far south with the current moving the ice ..


08/02/1500Z 84.766°N 2.871°W
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What happens if Dorian stalls too long? The LLC is only barely moving north it seems.
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Some nasty storms moving in to Palm Beach county...Not good for the Friday drive home.
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Quoting 629. Grothar:


You should have seen the fun when we first tried to program the year 2800 B.C. You've never seen so many minuses.


Those punch cards were a pain too!

Is it done yet?
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Quoting 638. VR46L:


It Looks to be making in roads into the ITCZ to me




its a feeder feeding the atlantic its vapour to lead the way
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INVEST91/Dorian is a natural reminder that the weeks ahead wont be so kind.

Take the grace of time now to get ready for the Meat of the season to come.


What you do now, will save you time and effort later.

Have a plan, a evac destination, and be mindful of those who may not have the ways and means as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 623. MechEngMet:
Interesting pre-blobster is south Cab-sea. What say you Grothar???


I posted a whole entry on that this morning and an image of it. Please stay on top of these things. I was even asked for a BlobCon level and I assigned it a 1.



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What is the water temps , around the center ?
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Quoting 636. EyEtoEyE:
Well is Dorian going to reform or not ? I sure looks like he trying !
he has a very short window left will he do it lets see
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638. VR46L
Quoting 627. wunderkidcayman:

Not so much the dust is moderate to weak and weakening plus a big moisture plume that came off with it should keep dust weakening and in check




It Looks to be making in roads into the ITCZ to me




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SAL
Link
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Well is Dorian going to reform or not ? I sure looks like he trying !
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Quoting 633. FIUStormChaser:
Is the center directly over the Gulf Stream?

I think so.
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Quoting 604. MisterPerfect:
something just blew up around Lake O..

sea breeze occlusion
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Is the center directly over the Gulf Stream?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting 620. SouthernIllinois:
Tense on here again this fine Friday afternoon. Sigh. Why can't we all just get a along longneck....??



It's 5 O'clock Somewhere, TGIF! Well here in NW Florida I'm back to counting the days without rain, so far today makes one as long as the sea breeze thunderstorms stay to the North of the coast.
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XDorian...the "Tenacious D" of WU
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Quoting 622. sar2401:

There you go again...blasting the hopes of the young. :-)


Ooops....by the way those 16 MPH winds could be rain contaminated
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Quoting 598. SunriseSteeda:
The December 31, 1969 (12/31/69) means that the date variable when that graphic was generated was invalid or uninitialized to some valid value. Happens in several languages, including PHP.

There is something called "The Unix Epoch". Unix operating systems measure time as number of seconds/cycles since 1/1/1970 (making 12/31/69 invalid ;)

PCs used to have problems with the battery on the motherboard, when it would eventually die (which saves your BIOS settings when your machine is off/unplugged). An immediate tip-off that this was a problem was that the datestamp read 1/1/80 (Microsoft/DOS epoch).

Mac is 1/1/1904. Windows is 1/1/1601. Cool huh?

Source: Programmer since before Grothar's time.



You should have seen the fun when we first tried to program the year 2800 B.C. You've never seen so many minuses.
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Quoting 614. Skyepony:
That buoy & poles near the North Pole is something to see since that melt water left..


pitted ice from standing melt water then it all drains away into the sea
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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