Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

Share this Blog
53
+

After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 728 - 678

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting 721. Grothar:


All these sudden changes in software and websites could be considered "elderly abuse" Haven't we suffered enough?
never suffer enough always just a little longer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As noted on here all day, there have been a number of various swirls and/or broad rotations within 91L from the Bahamas to various parts off the Florida Coast every few hours.......Have not seen a dominant one emerge as of yet but it looks a lot better organized this afternoon than it did this morning.

It could get a groove on, towards possible TD status again, if a dominant coc takes over later today or by the early am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AudiBofMobile:


Second this. I've been reading through comments on this blog for hours every day, as I've recently become very interested in meteorology and what is happening in the Atlantic.

I have two concerns with the ongoing, never-ending troll discussion:

(1) I haven't been able to identify a pattern that make a comment 'trollish'. For example, is the use of words 'boring' or 'awesome' generally inappropriate? (If you must identify a comment as trollish, can you please specify the reason for the dozens of other people reading your comment?)

(2) Many comments are about how this or that comment is 'given by a troll' or 'feeding the troll' or about the ignore function and this is very boring. (Is there a filter for every comment that has the term 'troll' or 'ignore'?)

Back to topic, I have some questions about learning from this blog:

(a) Comments that are images: comments are frequently just a recent image -- what is the purpose of these images? Since they can often be found, for example, on the NHC webpage, I'm guessing they are intended to make a statement, such as, 'look at that lack of convergence!' but as someone who doesn't know how to read those images yet, I usually can't guess what the message is. Is there some way I can unobtrusively learn more, such as beginning a chat with individual posters? Or maybe there is a different reason for systematically posting these images?

(b) Recurving: someone mentioned that storms should not recurve since there is a high sitting in the Atlantic. How does this square with most models predicting 91L is curving east later?






Those are some very good questions. I'll do my best to give you my take on them.

1. Troll is a broad and often misleading term. It can be anything from someone posting racist attacks and personal vendettas to people who have no idea about weather at all but like to post things like every storm is going to flatten Miami. The classic troll isn't hard to identify. The other class, which I call annoying, are usually accompanied by WOW!!!! and lots of other all caps statements with lots of exclamation points. Every swirl is going to become a "big one" (Katrina II being a favorite) and, no matter what the models say, we have to "keep any eye on it", since weather is known to almost always do things that are completely unpredictable. When you read the blog long enough, you'll recognize them. I just put them on ignore, since the only thing I miss is high blood pressure. :-)

2. Most bloggers that pay attention will only post the trolls name in a quote and delete the text to alert the mods. Those that post the text of a troll or annoyer only contribute to the problem.

3. This is a pet peeve of mine. If you're going to post a radar, map, or some other image, don't do it with no explanation. Many of us, myself included, have no idea what we're looking at or even what's important about what we're looking at. It's even worse when people post a satellite image of a historic storm in the same area as a current storm and then get people upset, thinking it's a picture of the current storm. When I post an image, I at least write a line of explanation and a provide a link, since many of the images are impossible to see in any detail anyway.

4. Recurving way too long to get into here, since I'm probably already taking up too much space, but look at a map that shows isobars, the lines of equal pressure. All other things being equal, a storm will tend to track along the 1016 isobar. With 91L, there are easterly winds and a trough that will pick up the low and take it NNE along that 1016 mb line. Google "recurve" and you'll find some sites with good explanations.

It's natural to be a little nervous posting on a new blog, just as it is meeting new people in real life. The most majority here are pretty decent and will take the time answer serious questions. You have to develop a little bit of a thick skin, since some people like to disagree for the sake of disagreeing. Just like real life, you move on and don't let them get under your skin. I really wish there was an "ignore" button I could use on real people and not go to jail for it. 8-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15069
725. JLPR2
After being out for most of the day I see ex-Dorian is making a comeback, looking pretty good.

Also... I felt like a doughnut outside, the sky has the characteristic white hue of SAL.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shoot, Gro was the guy who gave Moses's Directions to the Promised Land..

I told them to go right at the big Rock,..


That caused a 40 year detour and a lot of grief.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
I'm so burned out with Ex-Dorian, I don't care if reforms at this point, especially because it's not a big threat to land now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 710. whitewabit:


as old as you are , you shouldn't have any trouble adapting to new things ..


All these sudden changes in software and websites could be considered "elderly abuse" Haven't we suffered enough?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 712. bigwes6844:
Yessir u got that right pat!


Shoot, my minds still sharp as a thimble,...

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting 715. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I am having very bad visions now and its not pretty

What are the visisons?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon All.

Pretty good squall came through at around 3:30 here in Jupiter, FL. Lotsa rain, a little windy.


Interesting CSU revised forecast. Nothing that we didn't know already. Seems that Cuba, Bahama's & Florida carry the highest percentage increase for a major this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Air pressures falling again east of Cape Canaveral and gusts now up to 15 knots out of the N-NE; definitely not the sea breeze.......

Station 41009
NDBC
Location: 28.523N 80.184W
Date: Fri, 02 Aug 2013 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NNE (22°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.00 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 71.8 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Soo Dorian is not gonna affect land?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 700. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I hated it when they changed the PreperationH boxes to look like the Polydent boxes!
I am having very bad visions now and its not pretty
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 665. sar2401:

Ahem...I think that's what I said yesterday. :-)


Ahem. I don't think so! But I do have every one of my entries marked over the past 5 days showing this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 707. PalmBeachWeather:
But it is broke Ped


It is now, and I don't see a way to neuter it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 709. Patrap:
704. bigwes6844

Looks like Jesuit's cam at Banks and Carrollton.
Yessir u got that right pat!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 706. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dorian appears to be developing a new circulation northwest of Grand Bahama. It's within the disorganized convection too.

I see it!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 29475
710. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 690. Grothar:


Yes I did, but it was not there a minute ago. Just a word to the people who keep changing these things.

If it's not broke, don't fix it!!!!!! And if you do change something it should be to simply not complicate.!!!!!! Just like those kids who keep changing the colors on the Polydent boxes.


as old as you are , you shouldn't have any trouble adapting to new things ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31373
704. bigwes6844

Looks like Jesuit's cam at Banks and Carrollton.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Conditions at SPGF1 as of(4:00 pm EDT)
2000 GMT on 08/02/2013:

Wind Direction (WDIR: S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD: 12 kts
Wind Gust (GST: 14 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES: 30.03 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY: -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP: 79.0 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M: 12 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M: 14 kts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 686. PedleyCA:
"If it aint broke, don't fix it."
But it is broke Ped
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dorian appears to be developing a new circulation northwest of Grand Bahama. It's within the disorganized convection too. Might become a tropical depression tomorrow if it can continue organizing.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting 690. Grothar:


Yes I did, but it was not there a minute ago. Just a word to the people who keep changing these things.

If it's not broke, don't fix it!!!!!! And if you do change something it should be to simply not complicate.!!!!!! Just like those kids who keep changing the colors on the Polydent boxes.


its to be something wunderful

keeps ya on ya toes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uptown New Orleans

Hi: 93°F
Lo: 79°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: SE 16
Heat Index: 96°F
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 69°F
Avg Wind: 4 ENE
Pressure: 29.89"
Rain/Month: 0"
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
703. VR46L
Quoting 697. barbamz:


Everything ok with Firefox. VR, did you notice I once again got the 666-post? Aaargh.


Not again !

At the moment I am so jinxed that I avoid it like the plague .. too much rotten luck following me round
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 672. Grothar:
Hey, the top of the page here disappeared. No mail and no way to get to our blogs.
I now have this kinda..yellow, brown,mustard color line on the top of my page.I'm so confused now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 668. Gearsts:
CSU --->Link

Information obtained through July 2013 indicates that the remainder of the 2013
Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1981-2010 season. We
estimate that the remainder of 2013 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 14
named storms (average is 10.5), 75 named storm days (average is 58), 35 hurricane days
(average is 21.3), 3 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.0) and 7 major
hurricane days (average is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and
Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2013 season is estimated to
be above its long-period average. We expect the remainder of the Atlantic basin
hurricane season to accrue Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity approximately 140
percent of the seasonal average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from
early April and early June, due to anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the
tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic.
This forecast was based on a newly-developed extended-range early August
statistical prediction scheme developed over the previous 33 years. An earlier statistical
model that was utilized for several years has also been consulted. Analog predictors were
also considered.
Cool neutral ENSO conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific, and we
believe that these conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of the Atlantic
hurricane season. While sea level pressure anomalies across the tropical Atlantic have
been relatively low during June and July, sea surface temperatures have anomalously
cooled in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. These cooler SSTs are typically
associated with less favorable thermodynamic conditions which we believe could cause
slightly less TC activity than expected earlier.
Starting today and issued every two weeks following (e.g., August 16, August 30,
etc), we will issue two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season from August-October. A late-season forecast for the Caribbean
basin will be issued on Tuesday, October 1.


The 2004 hurricane season seems to be the best analog for this year. While the tropical Atlantic has been somewhat (relatively speaking) quiet this past June and July, I think a rapid increase in cyclone genesis is possible, if not likely as we continue into August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 690. Grothar:


Yes I did, but it was not there a minute ago. Just a word to the people who keep changing these things.

If it's not broke, don't fix it!!!!!! And if you do change something it should be to simply not complicate.!!!!!! Just like those kids who keep changing the colors on the Polydent boxes.


I hated it when they changed the PreperationH boxes to look like the Polydent boxes!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 686. PedleyCA:
"If it aint broke, don't fix it."


These kids love to fool around thinking they are making things better. (I tried to plus this more than once.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 690. Grothar:


Yes I did, but it was not there a minute ago. Just a word to the people who keep changing these things.

If it's not broke, don't fix it!!!!!! And if you do change something it should be to simply not complicate.!!!!!! Just like those kids who keep changing the colors on the Polydent boxes.


Great minds think alike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 679. VR46L:


I can get in ... Chrome ... but there is a funny arrow beside my cities


Everything ok with Firefox. VR, did you notice I once again got the 666-post? Aaargh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 642. Patrap:
INVEST91/Dorian is a natural reminder that the weeks ahead wont be so kind.

Take the grace of time now to get ready for the Meat of the season to come.


What you do now, will save you time and effort later.

Have a plan, a evac destination, and be mindful of those who may not have the ways and means as well.


Having gone through more than my share of storms on an island where evacuation is not an option we have to be prepared, if you and your loved ones have the option of evacuating before a storm use it even if you think you are prepared because trust me if you haven't experienced a major storm first hand you probably are not prepared!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looking at the most recent hi-vis loops on 91L (through 4:10 pm), there is another rotation area with come convection spinning about due East of Vero Beach.

Have no clue what will happen but I give 91L an A+ for effort this afternoon..........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 689. whitewabit:


sign out is on the drop down box next to your handle ..


Copy dat, Houston
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
693. VR46L
Quoting 688. PalmBeachWeather:
I'm getting"Special Statement for Boynton Beach" where my email usually is


Maybe Mine is ok because special statements would not apply to my ISP...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 676. SecretStormNerd:


you must live near me...
So it's you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's one WEAK trof fo sho...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting 677. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did ya scroll up


Yes I did, but it was not there a minute ago. Just a word to the people who keep changing these things.

If it's not broke, don't fix it!!!!!! And if you do change something it should be to simply not complicate.!!!!!! Just like those kids who keep changing the colors on the Polydent boxes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
689. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 680. Patrap:


sign out is on the drop down box next to your handle ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31373
Quoting 679. VR46L:


I can get in ... Chrome ... but there is a funny arrow beside my cities
I'm getting"Special Statement for Boynton Beach" where my email usually is
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 665. sar2401:

Ahem...I think that's what I said yesterday. :-)
And 2, or was it 3 days ago you said Dorian was dead, ceased to exist, nothing but remnants of remnants. Yet the llmnop-coc kept coming and the persistent trof is sitting on Florida.
.
There's been enough crow that this storm has dished out for everyone on the blog. And we still have diurnal max over Miami before he hopefully leaves.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5581
"If it aint broke, don't fix it."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Look at that shear to his northeast. He won't last much longer anyways.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
I had a few page loads where the mail icon and current city/radar/etc image didn't show up. But the new alert bar at the top was there.

After a few reloads, the missing icons showed up. I think we're in transition.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For once, ex-Dorian is actually building convection as we head towards D-Min. If it keeps this up through tonight and into D-Max early tomorrow we just may see this become a TD or weak TS again, especially since the circulation seems to be organizing. 30% is probably a little conservative from the NHC.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Best part-----> For the island of Puerto Rico, the probability of a named storm, hurricane and
major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island this year is 43%, 21%, and 7%,
respectively.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 675. Patrap:
wunderyakuza has unleashed the "Alert Banner" for feedback.

The mail icon is still there, your eyes are jus old.

ACK!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
679. VR46L
Quoting 672. Grothar:
Hey, the top of the page here disappeared. No mail and no way to get to our blogs.


I can get in ... Chrome ... but there is a funny arrow beside my cities
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 672. Grothar:
Hey, the top of the page here disappeared. No mail and no way to get to our blogs.


It is still there for me. It just looks very different. This happened a few times over the past few days. There is a drop down box under your username.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 728 - 678

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.