Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 821. Envoirment:
Gro's Blob is in a hostile upper level environment



But it looks like it could head into the BOC if it keeps moving the way it is.



I also think the ULL south of Cuba is interesting. It seems to be helping convection pop up over Cuba and will likely benefit a lot from DMAX. High TCHPs under it, low shear, moving relatively slowly. It might try to work its way down.


that spin under Cuba is interesting..



and look at the stuff coming down into the gulf from LA
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Quoting 729. PalmBeachWeather:
OK..Enough already..........I'm old (older) Going to put an album on my record player...All Along The Watchtower..... That's better


had a guy tell me the reason today's pot has no seeds is because we don't have albums anymore, can't clean the seeds on a CD, so they HAD to get rid of the seeds.. he had a whole spiel, funny as HECK!
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
539 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

SCC029-022300-
/O.NEW.KCHS.FA.Y.0129.130802T2139Z-130802T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COLLETON SC-
539 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
CENTRAL COLLETON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING NEAR COTTAGEVILLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GIVHANS FERRY STATE PARK. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN BETWEEN 430 PM AND 530 PM NEAR AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
COTTAGEVILLE. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 630 PM THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS NEAR COTTAGEVILLE...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR HENDERSONVILLE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
GLOVERVILLE...GLOVERVILLE...COTTAGEVILLE...ROUND O...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
AREA ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. SLOW DOWN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING. IF WATER COVERS THE ENTIRE ROADWAY OR IS FLOWING...FIND
ANOTHER ROUTE. THE WATER IS PROBABLY MUCH DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS AND
ONLY ONE FOOT OF WATER CAN STALL A VEHICLE. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...STORM SEWERS AND CREEKS.
EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOVING WATER HAS ENOUGH FORCE TO KNOCK DOWN
AND CARRY AWAY CHILDREN.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8040 3284 8061 3279 8070 3285 8074
3291 8061 3298 8043 3295 8041

$$
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The front is near carolinas...ways away.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1396
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Gro's Blob is in a hostile upper level environment



But it looks like it could head into the BOC if it keeps moving the way it is.



I also think the ULL south of Cuba is interesting. It seems to be helping convection pop up over Cuba and will likely benefit a lot from DMAX. High TCHPs under it, low shear, moving relatively slowly. It might try to work its way down.
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Quoting 819. Astrometeor:


I was thinking more of the lines of 91L has less than 24 hours seeing as though the front is just off to the north, and I don't see this attaining anything further than depression status, if that. Just a wave to keep the blog from going crazy with boredom.

Of course, anyone with interests in the area should always monitor for any foul weather and to stay safe, just not seeing 91L develop into an organized system.

that is not the front, that is the pre frontal dry air.The front is well north.
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Quoting 812. Camille33:
91 l will merge with a front in 2.5 days...it has a shot to get to 60 kt before then.


I was thinking more of the lines of 91L has less than 24 hours seeing as though the front is just off to the north, and I don't see this attaining anything further than depression status, if that. Just a wave to keep the blog from going crazy with boredom.

Of course, anyone with interests in the area should always monitor for any foul weather and to stay safe, just not seeing 91L develop into an organized system.
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Fill'er up!

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2pm TWO might have been a little conservative going with only a 30% chance in the next 48 hours.


But given its organizing at DMIN which is miracle for this system. I would give it a 50% at the next TWO to develop in the next 48 hours and 30% in the next 5 days (still getting use to saying that LOL)
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ssued by The National Weather Service
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL
5:10 pm EDT, Fri., Aug. 2, 2013

... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH AND WEST CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR WILLOW OAK... OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKELAND... NEARLY STATIONARY... WILL AFFECT WINSTON... LAKELAND... LAKELAND LINDER AIRPORT AND LAKELAND HIGHLANDS... UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE... FIND A LOW SPOT... AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&
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91 l will merge with a front in 2.5 days...it has a shot to get to 60 kt before then.
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Picture worth a thousand words.....

No matter the short term, long term is clear...... finally the end of Dorian and its remnants!

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stationary



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Here it is. Col is a word,


col [kɒl (French) kɔl]
n
1. (Earth Sciences / Geological Science) the lowest point of a ridge connecting two mountain peaks, often constituting a pass

2. (Earth Sciences / Physical Geography) Meteorol a pressure region between two anticyclones and two depressions, associated with variable weather
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Grothar once again ruined my plans with his beautiful blob.
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Quoting 794. crankin:
Great post, Hurr305. What are the chances of this front washing out and allowing 91L to remain and then get influenced by a replacing high?


Thank! Not likely! It should get picked by and turn NNE and eventually NE out to sea by the trough. But if the trough was to become shallow and the High rebuilds quickly then there is a possibility. 91L is a real headache the faster it goes away the better :)
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12z Ensemble Members (GFS)
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I guess chances of this getting left behind by the trough are slim to none, and slim just left town.
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Quoting 784. Astrometeor:




Not cut-off low barbamz. I remember Levi defining this a week or two back:

COL: A region of the atmosphere between two high pressure and two low pressure areas. It is a region where there is little wind and the weather is often dull and slow to change.

Source


Ahh, thanks, this makes more sense and I've bookmarked the link. COL doesn't show up on the official NWS glossary, and I've noticed it quite often in recent times that there are (new?) metereological acronyms flying around which leave me clueless, lol (f.e. MDR = Main development region, I think, which isn't enlisted in both of these glossaries as far as I can see).
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803. beell
Quoting 783. StormsWanted:



...I do have to agree that the photo sans info posters drive me NUTS. I have no formal or even deep layman's grasp of meteorology, and those are the worst posts, more so than a rude poster, to me. Information goes a long way, even if it means being a broken record. Nobody learns if you keep it to yourself...



Guilty, on several counts. Will strive to do better.

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Quoting 770. crankin:
Longtime lurker here. This is getting old following underachiever 91L.
I have seen it mentioned that it is stuck in a COL,not moving much. What does COL stand for?
Thanks.


It's not an acronym, but a term borrowed from topography like "ridge". A col is like a saddle or pass along a mountain ridgeline. It's not deep enough to be considered part of a trough, and not high enough to be considered part of a ridge.
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.
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Quoting 797. ncstorm:
I see the 12z Suite has come back West some


it doesn't matter because the ecmwf is well out to sea ths a fish storm!!!
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Quoting 796. TimSoCal:


Looks like whatever circulation might have been there is either over land already or will be shortly.
yeah it looks mostly tropical convergence zone activity
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Quoting 789. sar2401:

Hey, if the admins want to make a permalink to it here, I'd be happy to host it. It really wouldn't be a bad idea to have a place for new folks to go and post questions or say what they see happening and make the atmosphere as non-threatening as possible. Might also be a good way to weed out trolls, although I don't think they'd ever use it.


Totally agree. Like when new GFS code comes out and I want to learn the changes, wouldn't do much good to ask on the main. Our experts could pop over to the noob blog and answer what hasn't been..
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I see the 12z Suite has come back West some

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Quoting 793. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Looks like whatever circulation might have been there is either over land already or will be shortly.
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The ex-Dorian remnants are basically in the best position they can be to try and develop within a very small pocket of low sheer; looking at the latest CIMMS charts below, there is a strong band of sheer just to the North as noted by Dr. Master's and NHC.

I am thinking that this might be the last-dance; once it starts heading North in earnest, it will probably be shread to bits once and for all......

Link
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Great post, Hurr305. What are the chances of this front washing out and allowing 91L to remain and then get influenced by a replacing high?
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Quoting 779. sar2401:

Do you have coordinates for this blob? The only one I see is at about 83W, 13N. It doesn't look like it deserves any AOI yet.


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Quoting 783. StormsWanted:

The main entry for this link told me absolutely nothing of any use regarding the earlier post asking questions regarding trolls and other clarifications. Is there a blog entry of known trolls? Because that would be super handy for n00bs like me, who don't know one way or the other who's a taboo individual to quote. "Troll" is tossed out so frequently online now that it's a default insult. As a member of umpteen forums, I know firsthand it's lost much of it's meaning. Therefore, it'd be swell to see a bona fide post of vetted, genuine trolls, rather than opinions of which over-excited person or question-filled person is "trollish".

I do have to agree that the photo sans info posters drive me NUTS I have no formal or even deep layman's grasp of meteorology, and those are the worst posts, more so than a rude poster, to me. Information goes a long way, even if it means being a broken record. Nobody lears if you keep it to yourself.

Also, I find it amusing & childish that some chatter is frowned upon, while stuff like age-related posts are good to go. Cherry pick much?


No, that was a link to the thug blog, we don't have a blog for noobs ***YET*** and I think it'd be a splendid idea if someone started one.

Especially before the season really gets crankin'.
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Quoting 786. RascalNag:
Link

Looking at this, it seems like xDorian is paralleling the Florida coast rather than turning NNE for now.


not forcasted to turn until tomorrow
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Quoting 787. Hurricanes305:
Recent satellite imagery and a little bit of buoy data is show along the surface trough of 91L which extends from East of Central Florida to east of the Keys that a LLC is reforming and organizing at this moment. Dry air and upper level winds prevent convection from organizing over the LLC that was east of Vero Beach, Florida it has since collapse and a new one is forming right under the MLC and NW of Grand Bahama lower level inflow and convergence is starting to pile up under the convection supporting thunderstorm activity during DMIN for the first time since it was a 60mph storm over the Central Atlantic. If the new center tightens up and burst some deep convection during DMAX tonight we will likely see development.



The possible LLC is stationary at the moment and the fact that it relocated so far south means it has a chance to miss the trough. However, not much strengthen will occur if it does develop as upper level winds will start to shear on Saturday but if a scenario where is gets left behind by the trough as WNW-NW track over South Florida and into the Gulf maybe possible. If it fails to organize more tonight this will be its last time. 91L continues to play by its own rules and its showing us this evening what a headache it can be. Bty Here in South Florida after a hot sunny day some clouds have quickly moved in about 2 hours ago and is now producing some light showers. Tonight and possibly tomorrow may bring us some rain after all.

wishcaster not going to gulf at all!!
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Quoting redwagon:


That wasn't in answer to you.. that was just linking the thug blog Auburn was referring to.

I guess someone *could* start a blog for noobs, I bet it'd be pretty comical. Hint. Nudge.

Hey, if the admins want to make a permalink to it here, I'd be happy to host it. It really wouldn't be a bad idea to have a place for new folks to go and post questions or say what they see happening and make the atmosphere as non-threatening as possible. Might also be a good way to weed out trolls, although I don't think they'd ever use it.
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Quoting 783. StormsWanted:

The main entry for this link told me absolutely nothing of any use regarding the earlier post asking questions regarding trolls and other clarifications. Is there a blog entry of known trolls? Because that would be super handy for n00bs like me, who don't know one way or the other who's a taboo individual to quote. "Troll" is tossed out so frequently online now that it's a default insult. As a member of umpteen forums, I know firsthand it's lost much of it's meaning. Therefore, it'd be swell to see a bona fide post of vetted, genuine trolls, rather than opinions of which over-excited person or question-filled person is "trollish".

I do have to agree that the photo sans info posters drive me NUTS. I have no formal or even deep layman's grasp of meteorology, and those are the worst posts, more so than a rude poster, to me. Information goes a long way, even if it means being a broken record. Nobody learns if you keep it to yourself.

Also, I find it amusing & childish that some chatter is frowned upon, while stuff like age-related posts are good to go. Cherry pick much?


Admin blogs (regardless of the entry) is the recommended place to post a question on community/mod/website issues that you may have. So, a question about trolls should be asked there, rather than here.
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Recent satellite imagery and a little bit of buoy data is showing that along the surface trough of 91L which extends from East of Central Florida to east of the Keys that a LLC is reforming and organizing at this moment. Dry air and upper level winds prevent convection from organizing over the LLC that was east of Vero Beach, Florida it has since collapse and a new one is forming right under the MLC and NW of Grand Bahama. Lower level inflow and convergence is starting to pile up under the convection supporting thunderstorm activity during DMIN for the first time since it was a 60mph storm over the Central Atlantic. If the new center tightens up and burst some deep convection during DMAX tonight we will likely see development.



The possible LLC is stationary at the moment and the fact that it relocated so far south means it has a chance to miss the trough. However, not much strengthen will occur if it does develop as upper level winds will start to shear on Saturday but if a scenario happens where it gets left behind by the trough a WNW-NW track over South Florida and into the Gulf maybe possible. If it fails to organize more tonight this will be its last time. 91L continues to play by its own rules and its showing us this evening what a headache it can be. Bty Here in South Florida after a hot sunny day some clouds have quickly moved in about 2 hours ago and is now producing some light showers. Tonight and possibly tomorrow may bring us some rain after all.

Edit: sorry for the WV imagery I fixed it with the RGB loop
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Link

Looking at this, it seems like xDorian is paralleling the Florida coast rather than turning NNE for now.

Edit: link did not go to the loop. Go to the 1km products on the left, go to visible, select the location in FL and go to a visible loop.
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Quoting 767. sar2401:

I should direct a new member to the cesspool of the Admin blog to answer questions? This seems like a great way to really scare off new members. :-)


That wasn't in answer to you.. that was just linking the thug blog Auburn was referring to.

I guess someone *could* start a blog for noobs, I bet it'd be pretty comical. Hint. Nudge.
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Quoting 770. crankin:
Longtime lurker here. This is getting old following underachiever 91L.
I have seen it mentioned that it is stuck in a COL,not moving much. What does COL stand for?
Thanks.


Quoting 775. barbamz:


Maybe "cutoff low"?


Not cut-off low barbamz. I remember Levi defining this a week or two back:

COL: A region of the atmosphere between two high pressure and two low pressure areas. It is a region where there is little wind and the weather is often dull and slow to change.

Source
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Quoting 763. redwagon:


Link

Sensitivethug blog Auburn's referring to.

The main entry for this link told me absolutely nothing of any use regarding the earlier post asking questions regarding trolls and other clarifications. Is there a blog entry of known trolls? Because that would be super handy for n00bs like me, who don't know one way or the other who's a taboo individual to quote. "Troll" is tossed out so frequently online now that it's a default insult. As a member of umpteen forums, I know firsthand it's lost much of it's meaning. Therefore, it'd be swell to see a bona fide post of vetted, genuine trolls, rather than opinions of which over-excited person or question-filled person is "trollish".

I do have to agree that the photo sans info posters drive me NUTS. I have no formal or even deep layman's grasp of meteorology, and those are the worst posts, more so than a rude poster, to me. Information goes a long way, even if it means being a broken record. Nobody learns if you keep it to yourself.

Also, I find it amusing & childish that some chatter is frowned upon, while stuff like age-related posts are good to go. Cherry pick much?
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Thanks, barbamz. Maybe I misread it, and the were saying it was a COL. I thought it might have been an eddy or something, making it not move much.
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So far no rain at my location in S.Ft. Myers. Ex-Dorian's northerly flow is preventing our normal sea breeze setup from forming.
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Quoting Nola985:
Nice Blob in the South Caribbean. Will the NHC bring out the crayon for this?

Do you have coordinates for this blob? The only one I see is at about 83W, 13N. It doesn't look like it deserves any AOI yet.
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778. SLU
Quoting 681. Gearsts:
Best part-----> For the island of Puerto Rico, the probability of a named storm, hurricane and
major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island this year is 43%, 21%, and 7%,
respectively.


Of note is that their probabilities are based on the total number of storms predicted so an inactive season would have a lower landfall probability and an active season would naturally have a higher landfall probability. However, they do not take into consideration the anomalous strength of the ridging which also increases or decreases the landfall probabilities. In my opinion, an inactive year (eg. 1992) with stronger than normal rigding may actually have a higher landfall probability than an active year (eg. 1995, 2010)with a strong and permanent trough over the western Atlantic. Although this is very difficult to predict in advance, I'm sure some kind of analog system can be developed using past seasons to gauge the strength of the ridging possible in any year. Based on the recent trends of strong ridging this year, I believe that the landfall probabilities are actually much higher than that of CSU's estimate and that many of the serious hurricanes this year could threaten if not hit land.

Based on the set up of the 500mb height anomalies, the SLP anomalies and the 400mb air temperature anomalies for June and July, it is certainly setting up to be a very high impact year.

Very strong ridging in June and July may persist throughout ASO and prevent much recurvature.
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Based on my observations, storms tend to congregate and move towards areas where the pressures are lowest and where the 400mb air temperatures are highest relative to normal. Notice how these conditions both exists around the Caribbean and the MDR in general.
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One saving grace may be the extremely dry air across the MDR which might prevent the rapid strengthening of the storms.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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