Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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878. beell
LOL, TA. for sure. A col can certainly be to blame for the squashed spider model outputs! Thanks.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
Two clicks, twenty seconds is all it takes (use ignore)
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
91L is highlighted by excellent outflow in the northeastern and southeastern quadrants, but lacks in the southwestern and northwestern quadrants as upper level north, to northwesterly wind shear is impacting the developing disturbance. Convection is slightly organized, but not much by a long shot, but visible satellite imagery shows alignment in the mid to lower levels of the at I sphere indicating an organizing core wind field. Warm ssts and slight wind shear will likely allow further development to the disturbance and tropical cyclone development chances I would put at 60% the next 48 hours, and 30% thereafter as trough absorbs the disturbance. An outflow channel can be seen developing equator wars on satellite imagery.
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Quoting 832. Hurricanes305:


Cool! Is it a Windows 8 or a MAC? I still have win 7. I need to upgrade mines :)


It is a Windows 7. I wouldn't mind Windows 8, but I'd prefer to stick with what I know. Unfortunately though, I've lost all my links, if anyone could provide me with the following via WUmail I'd be very grateful.

- model(s), preferably the foreign models, such as the euro, and the experimental models as Levi's site has me set for the operational models.

- satellite imagery, such as the GOES-13 and 14 satellite images.

- any other links you guys feel useful I'd like. The more links I get, the more I can learn.

The rest I've got covered.
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Quoting 846. hydrus:
If it reaches T.D.status. do I eat half a crow..?..lol


Should I edit to more along the lines of Dr. Masters and "either hurricane or dissipate" forecast? I will never be wrong!
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Quoting 860. beell:
One for the col crowd and its significance with respect to storm steering.

If you can visualize the arrows as representing clockwise flow around two centers of high pressure (blue), and the counter-clockwise flow around a low pressure trough (red) in between it may help to understand the indeterminate path a northward moving storm may take when approaching a "col". Someone once described it to me as a "pinball" bouncing around between the bumpers. It could just as easily turn southwest or northeast or stall until a particular flow pattern becomes dominant.

Ridges and troughs pair up in all types of patterns but this would be a "typical" col in the northern hemisphere.


Tropical Storm Debby is probably the best example of a storm being stuck in a col. :\

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting 864. yqt1001:
Can Dorian be the new Karen? Or should we wait for Karen 2013?


If we get a 2013 Karen, the blog will be epic.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can Dorian be the new Karen? Or should we wait for Karen 2013?
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Quoting 840. wunderkidcayman:

Huh ???????



Hey anyone got any ideas on the new guy


There is no post #830.
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Persistent troll is still persistent.

I would ask if they don't have anything better to do on a friday afternoon/evening, but the answer to that question is already clear.
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Quoting 851. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Definitely better organized.

The angry cotton look...luv it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
860. beell
One for the col crowd and its significance with respect to storm steering.

If you can visualize the arrows as representing clockwise flow around two centers of high pressure (blue), and the counter-clockwise flow around a low pressure trough (red) in between-it may help to understand the indeterminate path a northward moving storm may take when approaching a "col". Someone once described it to me as a "pinball" bouncing around between the bumpers. It could just as easily turn southwest or northeast or stall until a particular flow pattern becomes dominant.

Ridges and troughs pair up in all types of patterns but this would be a "typical" col in the northern hemisphere.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Fish die as Alaska temperatures continue to break records
Source: Reuters - Fri, 2 Aug 2013 09:55 PM, by Yereth Rosen

ANCHORAGE, Alaska, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Alaska's summer heat wave has been pleasant for humans but punitive for some of its fish.

Overheated water has been blamed for large die-offs of hatchery trout and salmon stocks in at least two parts of the state as hot, dry weather has set in, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

Hundreds of grayling and rainbow trout died in June after being placed in a Fairbanks lake, the department reported. An unusually cold spring caused lake ice to linger much longer than normal, before the water quickly became too warm, department biologist April Behr said.

Surface temperatures in the lake rose to about 76 degrees Fahrenheit (24 degrees Celsius), she said. The precise number of dead fish was not yet known. "We picked up several hundred," she said.

A similar incident occurred in mid-July at the Crystal Lake Hatchery south of Petersburg in southeast Alaska.

An estimated 1,100 hatchery king salmon died while returning to a lake to spawn, local public radio station KFSK reported. Fish and Game sport fish biologist Doug Fleming told the radio station that air temperatures were in the 80s at the time.

Record-breaking heat has also created elevated wildfire risks in Alaska, even in the normally rain-soaked Tongass National Forest in the state's southeastern panhandle.

Wildfires have charred more than a million acres (400,000 hectares) across Alaska, according to state and federal wildfire managers, more than the five-year season-total annual average of 952,113 acres. Some 75 active fires were still burning on Friday, with much of the fire season still to come.


Whole article see link above.
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Quoting 848. CybrTeddy:
"TOMUCHSHEARTHISYEAR," not very subtle of a name is it? Pretty much a dead give-away.

Not only that but member since date and comments # yeah dead give-away
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
91L looks good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
there not the brightest by
but hey it is what it is
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Definitely better organized.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
greater than 1000mb



500-850mb
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
Quoting 817. Hurricanes305:
2pm TWO might have been a little conservative going with only a 30% chance in the next 48 hours.


But given its organizing at DMIN which is miracle for this system. I would give it a 50% at the next TWO to develop in the next 48 hours and 30% in the next 5 days (still getting use to saying that LOL)
I went 60% myself..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
"TOMUCHSHEARTHISYEAR," not very subtle of a name is it? Pretty much a dead give-away.
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Quoting 846. hydrus:
If it reaches T.D.status. do I eat half a crow..?..lol


nah, hydrus. yer good for the chicken and potatoes.
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Quoting 819. Astrometeor:


I was thinking more of the lines of 91L has less than 24 hours seeing as though the front is just off to the north, and I don't see this attaining anything further than depression status, if that. Just a wave to keep the blog from going crazy with boredom.

Of course, anyone with interests in the area should always monitor for any foul weather and to stay safe, just not seeing 91L develop into an organized system.
If it reaches T.D.status. do I eat half a crow..?..lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting 817. Hurricanes305:
2pm TWO might have been a little conservative going with only a 30% chance in the next 48 hours.


But given its organizing at DMIN which is miracle for this system. I would give it a 50% at the next TWO to develop in the next 48 hours and 30% in the next 5 days (still getting use to saying that LOL)

In all honesty I'm going with 30%/20%
I'll give it for organising as D-min approaches but with the lack of almost no convergence and will only very little low shear to with and very little time to develop it should be more like 20%/20%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting 832. Hurricanes305:


Cool! Is it a Windows 8 or a MAC? I still have win 7. I need to upgrade mines :)




Keep it at window 7 not worth the upgade too window 8
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting 836. indianrivguy:


That's about to train into the EAA.. Everglades Agricultural Area, they'll be pumping it out and making it "our" problem tomorrow, maybe even try and backpump into the Lake. Must protect corporate polluter profits, to hell with citizen safety.


We are already saturated, don't need more:

Wet July Leads to Record Rainfall

NWS Miami
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
841. VR46L
Quoting 837. LargoFl:
HEY THIS IS NEW!!..18 HOURS NAM TAKES 91L INTO THE COAST...


Thank you Largo ... Hope the Guys in the east coast Florida keep an eye on it .
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Quoting 830. TOMUCHSHEARTHISYEAR: ... ... ...
Huh ???????



Hey anyone got any ideas on the new guy
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Sure doesn't take long to start building an ignore list here.

FWIW, I'm enjoying watching the ULL below Cuba that others have mentioned. It's a pretty quick spinner, that one.
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21 HOURS COMING ASHORE..ENLARGE THIS PIC YOU'LL SEE IT...
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HEY THIS IS NEW!!..18 HOURS NAM TAKES 91L INTO THE COAST...
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Quoting 818. MisterPerfect:
Fill'er up!



That's about to train into the EAA.. Everglades Agricultural Area, they'll be pumping it out and making it "our" problem tomorrow, maybe even try and backpump into the Lake. Must protect corporate polluter profits, to hell with citizen safety.
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835. VR46L
Still trying to work out why it is to go NE

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Gonna Head Home. Enjoy the weekend; don't think I will be back until Monday unless ex-Dorian pulls a fast one before it exits stage right.

Stay Safe Yall.
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both GFS and NAM have it in the same spot in 12 hours..
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Quoting 829. CybrTeddy:
Hello everyone! I've finally gotten my new PC.


Cool! Is it a Windows 8 or a MAC? I still have win 7. I need to upgrade mines :)
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
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Hello everyone! I've finally gotten my new PC.
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Quoting 821. Envoirment:
Gro's Blob is in a hostile upper level environment



But it looks like it could head into the BOC if it keeps moving the way it is.



I also think the ULL south of Cuba is interesting. It seems to be helping convection pop up over Cuba and will likely benefit a lot from DMAX. High TCHPs under it, low shear, moving relatively slowly. It might try to work its way down.


that spin under Cuba is interesting..



and look at the stuff coming down into the gulf from LA
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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