Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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So, which is it, anyways ? Ex-tropical storm DORIAN, or 91 ? Why am I seeing two storms ?
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Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.


Are there any models for this prairiecane? Which way is it goin?
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1776. hydrus
Quoting 1771. washingtonian115:
I said a few days "IF" Dorian ever does come back it will be a highly sheared weak system.So I'm not eating crow.

If Disney get's a hold of it that'll be a lot of censoring they have to do or else we'll have mad parents coming from all over the U.S to D.C to march.lol.
Do even worry about it. We are here to learn. If I eat crow, it lessens the chance of me chowing on blackbird later..Thats how I think anyway.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
1775. 47n91w
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Look how dense is the sal outbreak in the Caribbean.

Island of Montserrat where Soufriere Volcano is.



St Barths where our friend CaribBoy is.



So apparently the barometric pressure sensor on the webcam facing Soufriere Volcano isn't calibrated or properly corrected to sea-level. 1083.5 mb is just shy of the highest pressure ever recorded on Earth in Siberia on 12/31/1968 at 1083.8 mb.

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1774. Grothar
Quoting 1755. ncstorm:


didnt fool me Gro..:) I never discounted Dorian..


I know we were the hangers on through this whole week.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26494
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1772. hydrus
Quoting 1764. Progster:


CMC has a huge MCS on the tail of today's for tomorrow:

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting 1762. hydrus:
Disney is looking into it..:)
I said a few days "IF" Dorian ever does come back it will be a highly sheared weak system.So I'm not eating crow.

If Disney get's a hold of it that'll be a lot of censoring they have to do or else we'll have mad parents coming from all over the U.S to D.C to march.lol.
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1770. Grothar
Quoting 1732. DocMurphy:


I think we avoided anything "blob" to escape paying you licensing fees.


My services are free.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26494
90E has been upgraded to TD 8-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS
CONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION
IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE
LOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE
SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY
ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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1768. ncstorm
Quoting 1758. washingtonian115:
Lol.I just have to sit back and laugh at the people right now that think they've won some sort of reward.I'm not eating crow because it's just a T.D 5 miles up from a tropical disturbance that's getting highly sheared now :).Some of you all act like this is going to come back with a revenge and turn into the next sci-fy movie disaster film.


come on, no one is saying this will destroy cities..LOL..most said it wouldnt regenerate..thats the point..I believe I will take my leave..If this hadnt regenerated, all the "I told you so" would be on here this morning..I dont want to rub salt in the wounds anymore and get yelled at on the blog..I'll be back later..remember guys..taking your crow is part of WU tradition..no excuses..

I will let my balloon exit with Dorian..(if he is heading NE)





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
Quoting 1761. mynameispaul:


so now we have XDorianLLCNorth and XDorianMLCSouth to track?


It's a daunting responsibility we bear.
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1765. barbamz
Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.


Little crow is singing happily ...

... that it will survive Dorian:


BBL later. I'm curious what our Doc says in his next entry.


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Quoting 1757. AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Stay safe from the Blob-o-cane.
Watch out for Frankenstein Dorian also.
Stay well, Stay safe.


CMC has a huge MCS on the tail of today's for tomorrow:

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1763. hydrus
Quoting 1757. AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Stay safe from the Blob-o-cane.
Watch out for Frankenstein Dorian also.
Stay well, Stay safe.
G,nite Aussie.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
1762. hydrus
Quoting 1758. washingtonian115:
Lol.I just have to sit back and laugh at the people right now that think they've won some sort of reward.I'm not eating crow because it's just a T.D 5 miles up from a tropical disturbance that's getting highly sheared now :).Some of you all act like this is going to come back with a revenge and turn into the next sci-fy movie disaster film.
Disney is looking into it..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting 1743. DocMurphy:
xDorianBlob91LTD's swirl has gone off to the NE all nekkid and stuff. What intrigues me is the MLC near the "top" of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection.


so now we have XDorianLLCNorth and XDorianMLCSouth to track?
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1760. hydrus
Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.
I agree. And I am not displeased with my forecast, and there is still a considerable amount of energy being left behind by the re-designated system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Blob-ocane to meet Dorian

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Quoting 1752. ncstorm:


LOL Wash..Barbecue or stewed crow? I have a special plate ready for you..LOL..
Lol.I just have to sit back and laugh at the people right now that think they've won some sort of reward.I'm not eating crow because it's just a T.D 5 miles up from a tropical disturbance that's getting highly sheared now :).Some of you all act like this is going to come back with a revenge and turn into the next sci-fy movie disaster film.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodnight all. Stay safe from the Blob-o-cane.
Watch out for Frankenstein Dorian also.
Stay well, Stay safe.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
1756. icmoore
Quoting 1720. DocMurphy:
A Landocane could only produce a sharknado if it passed over the New York area where it might encounter the dreaded landshark. Of course the landshark has not been seen since a 1970's episode of SNL. I would set the probability of sharknado at near zero.


Knock, knock. Who's there? Landshark!! Thank you that was what I was thinking , too :)
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1755. ncstorm
Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.


didnt fool me Gro..:) I never discounted Dorian..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
Quoting 1739. hydrus:
This is interesting. The GFS has a system in the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours but it dissipates. Then later has a system crossing the entire basin into the gulf where it strengthens.


The top image looks erroneous, look at all the sub 1000mb lows over the US and the fact that the "TC" in the Caribbean has no wind with it. The bottom image looks fine, however.
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1753. Grothar
Quoting 1748. hydrus:
I may have to eat half a crow...Dunno yet..:)


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26494
1752. ncstorm
Quoting 1747. washingtonian115:
Yes a T.D that's moving away from land.Ooooow scary watch out! I have to get the supplies and start evacuating right now!.Yikes!Dorian is surely on his way to cat 10 status...


LOL Wash..Barbecue or stewed crow? I have a special plate ready for you..LOL..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURED NEAR THE
CENTER OF GIL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE STRUCTURE IS STILL
BEING DISTRUPTED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE TO ABOUT 50 KT...AND GIVEN
THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT AT THAT VALUE. ALL OF
THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GIL
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY DUE TO
DECREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
POSSIBILITIES AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLOENN TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS GIL
WEAKENS AND IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS CENTERED AROUND THE PAST COUPLE NHC FORECASTS.
THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.0N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.0N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.8N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.2N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 13.0N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 13.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
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Quoting 1728. hydrus:
Oh no another blob.Lets prepare to listen the whole day the same old story.Blobbers keep watching and forget you Saturday.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW
CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS
ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN
THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER
TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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1748. hydrus
Quoting 1738. Grothar:
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





I may have to eat half a crow...Dunno yet..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL
Yes a T.D that's moving away from land.Ooooow scary watch out! I have to get the supplies and start evacuating right now!.Yikes!Dorian is surely on his way to cat 10 status...
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Quoting 1738. Grothar:
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





Attention blobers.
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1745. hydrus
Quoting 1738. Grothar:
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





I think a weird pattern that we are in is going to get downright strange over the next two weeks, and plenty of busy Mets scratching their heads...Morning Gro.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 82 degrees already with a high of 97 expected, no rain in sight. :(

So Undead Dorian with a heartbeat decided he was coming back. This little 'engine that could' has really fought a good fight, and now back to a TD. You have to honor a good fighter, as long as he doesn't do any damage to anyone.

Breakfast's on the sideboard, don't know if CW has been in or not: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, shrimp and spinach omelet, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce,whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, creamy oatmeal with blueberries,cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
xDorianBlob91LTD's swirl has gone off to the NE all nekkid and stuff. What intrigues me is the MLC near the "top" of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection.
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1742. ncstorm
Quoting 1737. beell:


Yeah, I wrote Dorian off. And continue to do so this morning. I doubt this disturbance will ruin anyone's day. No symptoms of deep-cutting pain noted here.

It met the requirements of a depression for about 20 minutes. Good enough.


it wasnt about ruining anyone's day :)..it was about the formation of a storm that most didnt give a chance..tropical systems are so unpredictable, just makes you wonder what this season will have in store..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
Quoting 1730. Grothar:
Please, people. If you are going to talk about these things call them by their proper name. This is a Blobocane :)

This blog is now a blob.
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1740. tkeith
Quoting Progster:


Trailerechos
these are prolific in Arkansas :)

AKA "doublewide blues"...
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1739. hydrus
This is interesting. The GFS has a system in the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours but it dissipates. Then later has a system crossing the entire basin into the gulf where it strengthens.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
1738. Grothar
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26494
1737. beell
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


Yeah, I wrote Dorian off. And continue to do so this morning. I doubt this disturbance will ruin anyone's day. No symptoms of deep-cutting pain noted here.

It met the requirements of a depression for about 20 minutes. Good enough.
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1736. barbamz
Where the African wave train starts ...

Sudan: Heavy Rains in Sudan Causes Flash Floods, Damages
2 August 2013

Khartoum — Sudan's General Directorate of Civil Defense (GDCD), has announced that floods resulting from heavy rains, which continued for two days in a row, led to serious damages in several states.

The director of GDCD Hashim Hussein Abdel-Mageed, said in statements to the official news agency (SUNA) that the floods had cut off the road linking Atbara to Abu Hamad in the River Nile state as well as the highway in locality of Durdaib in Red Sea state, adding that the Ministry of roads and bridges is exerting huge efforts to repair the damage.

Abdel-Mageed added that flash floods have also overrun Al-Gaulid locality in the Northern state, Al-Rusairs in the Blue Nile state and North Kordofan state causing some damages, pointing out that the most affected areas in Khartoum state are the east Nile locality and Khartoum north locality.

He stressed that The Supreme Council of Civil Defense (SCCD) is working closely with the Ministry of Roads and Bridges and disclosed that several teams were deployed to the affected areas to provide aid and shelter, pointing to the efforts of the civil society organizations as well.

The director of Sudan's General Authority for Meteorology (GAM), Abdalla Khiyar, said that large parts of the country including Khartoum state will likely witness more rainfall and thunder storms within the next 24 hours. ...





Sudan
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1734. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
1733. ncstorm
I believe the CMC is showing Dorian regenerating again..extratropical, I'm not sure..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
Quoting 1730. Grothar:
Please, people. If you are going to talk about these things call them by their proper name. This is a Blobocane :)



I think we avoided anything "blob" to escape paying you licensing fees.
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Quoting 1717. tkeith:
no...catfishnados

Thanks for clearing that up
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1730. Grothar
Please, people. If you are going to talk about these things call them by their proper name. This is a Blobocane :)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26494
Largo: If your new puter came with windows 8 pro, you can downgrade it to win 7.
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1728. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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