Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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928. bappit
11:01 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 914. CybrTeddy:
35-40kt peak before weakening and dying.

Ow. The northeast winds pushing in from up north look deadly for 91L.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
927. EricSFL
11:00 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
You can decipher a center of circulation due east of Port St. Lucie.
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 803
926. bappit
11:00 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 912. TropicalAnalystwx13:
With evidence of a closed low-level circulation and organized, deep thunderstorms atop the center, 91L is likely pushing tropical depression status. Again.


I looked at buoys and wundermap and don't see any real evidence of a surface circulation. Can you point us in the direction of the evidence you mention? Movement of radar returns do indicate a mid-level circulation. I do see a west wind at Settlement Point, GBI (SPGF1) buoy but that only happened for the latest report. Was southerly before that. It might just be a breeze from a thunderstorm downdraft. The velocity is higher than preceding winds which is consistent with a downdraft gust.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
925. Stormchaser2007
10:59 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Strong winds out of the west @ 28 mph

We'll see what the 8pm says.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
924. flcanes
10:57 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 915. Hurricanes305:


personally I would have given it a 60% too but its the NHC they are usually very conservative. Unless its Stewart LOL then 60% it would be :D

LOL. I think Stewart listens to this blog.
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1250
923. ncstorm
10:56 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
18z suite


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
922. Sfloridacat5
10:56 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Notice the line of T storms dissecting the state from North to South feeding into Dorian. They almost look like a feeder band.
Mentioned earlier, our normal sea breeze T storms did not form today due to the northerly flow coming around Dorian.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
921. slavicthunder
10:55 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
♫♫ Blob, blob, blob. Blob Barbara Ann ♫♫
Member Since: August 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
920. EricSFL
10:54 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 803
919. ncstorm
10:52 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
maybe the NHC should have had the HH to fly out to ex Dorian?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
918. nrtiwlnvragn
10:50 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Wind shift Settlement Point, Grand Bahama


6:00 pm W ( 278 deg ) 22 kts
5:50 pm WSW ( 240 deg ) 13 kts
5:40 pm SSW ( 199 deg ) 11 kts
5:30 pm SSW ( 192 deg ) 12 kts
5:20 pm S ( 184 deg ) 11 kts
5:10 pm S ( 177 deg ) 10 kts
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10934
917. beell
10:47 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Station 41009-20 nm east of Cape Canaveral


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16289
916. LiveToFish0430
10:45 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 840. wunderkidcayman:
Quoting 830. TOMUCHSHEARTHISYEAR: ... ... ...
Huh ???????



Hey anyone got any ideas on the new guy

Lol..anotherwrongyear..jeffreysweetiepie..thunder strommike..buzzardswrath.. tomuchshearthisyear.. It's all the same guy. He's gotta be setting a record for the most bans and new names in a one month period
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
915. Hurricanes305
10:45 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 849. hydrus:
I went 60% myself..:)


personally I would have given it a 60% too but its the NHC they are usually very conservative. Unless its Stewart LOL then 60% it would be :D
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
914. CybrTeddy
10:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
35-40kt peak before weakening and dying.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
913. barbamz
10:43 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 907. whitewabit:
Quote 893. barbamz

All the best from a "tropical (german) night", I have to go. To explain: the term "tropical night" (Tropennacht) is used in german metereology for a night when temps won't fall below 20C (= 68F). It's not so unusual but still only few nights in a year would meet this demand in Germany. I've just walked outside to my terrace, 20 minutes past midnight, and it's still 25C (77F) - so a very tropical night :)


Is the heat suppose to last long ??


Models still aren't in agreement yet, as far as I can see; earlier they have predicted that the heat will lessen soon for good but some of them are swinging back. Overall the heat isn't that stable, and at least we will get some breaks - I really hope. Anyway it's not as bad as in Shanghai at present (poor people, we've experienced this deadly kind of "ever" lasting heatwave in 2003).
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5715
912. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:40 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
With evidence of a closed low-level circulation and organized, deep thunderstorms atop the center, 91L is likely pushing tropical depression status. Again.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
911. beell
10:39 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 908. midgulfmom:
The tail end of the trough looks a bit wimpy, as I don't see huge fast moving storms embedded there. Does this make a difference if it can or can't tug the system up and away? Tks


The southerly flow around the Atlantic ridge should help push it north into the westerlies. That's the plan, anyway.


18Z GFS 850 mb-valid 8PM EDT, Friday

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16289
910. Stormchaser2007
10:38 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
909. Jerrob
10:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 908. midgulfmom:
The tail end of the trough looks a bit wimpy, as I don't see huge fast moving storms embedded there. Does this make a difference if it can or can't tug the system up and away? Tks

that's what I was trying to ask as well. You worded it better. thanks
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 188
908. midgulfmom
10:35 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
The tail end of the trough looks a bit wimpy, as I don't see huge fast moving storms embedded there. Does this make a difference if it can or can't tug the system up and away? Tks
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
907. whitewabit (Mod)
10:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quote 893. barbamz

All the best from a "tropical (german) night", I have to go. To explain: the term "tropical night" (Tropennacht) is used in german metereology for a night when temps won't fall below 20C (= 68F). It's not so unusual but still only few nights in a year would meet this demand in Germany. I've just walked outside to my terrace, 20 minutes past midnight, and it's still 25C (77F) - so a very tropical night :)


Is the heat suppose to last long ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31280
906. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 902. hydrus:
The models say your correct. And spaghetti agrees with you..

sometimes things happen and they take on a mind of there own

who knows got to watch right to the bitter end
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
905. MisterPerfect
10:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
904. CybrTeddy
10:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Pulling a Claudette on the other side of the coast.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
903. stormpetrol
10:33 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 840. wunderkidcayman:

Have information on what's happening to our radar it is off line again!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7716
902. hydrus
10:33 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Quoting 895. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if it reforms it will set the place up but it should move n by ne over the next 6 to 12 hrs from now
The models say your correct. And spaghetti agrees with you..

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
901. LargoFl
10:32 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Since 91L looks stationary, what is the time frame of the front that's suppose to be taking it NE?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 188
899. beell
Somebody may have already posted something similar so disregard if so-this particular chart displays a "col" north of the Bahamas. A thicker slice of the atmosphere (200-700 mb) than may be warranted, but a decent visual.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16289
91L'S POSITION SUNDAY....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
WOW LOOK AT SOUTH FLORIDA...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting 891. hydrus:
Maybe a little too impressive..

if it reforms it will set the place up but it should move n by ne over the next 6 to 12 hrs from now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting 888. hydrus:
This will be Dorian if it reaches tropical storm status is that correct.?


Quoting 890. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Right. The low-level vorticity has been clearly trackable over the past several days.

Even if it became a TD it would or should still be called TD Dorian
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
All the best from a "tropical (german) night", I have to go. To explain: the term "tropical night" (Tropennacht) is used in german metereology for a night when temps won't fall below 20C (= 68F). It's not so unusual but still only few nights in a year would meet this demand in Germany. I've just walked outside to my terrace, 20 minutes past midnight, and it's still 25C (77F) - so a very tropical night :)

West Africa: Sahel Region Set to See Rise in 'Climate Refugees' - Report
By Emma Batha, 2 August 2013

London — Erratic weather linked to climate change is forcing people to flee their homes in West Africa's Sahel region, a trend that could worsen dramatically as temperatures rise, a rights group warned.

Refugees International (RI) urged the United Nations and donor countries to improve the tracking of this new form of displacement and work with national governments to better protect those affected.

Some 11 million people are still at risk of hunger in the Sahel following last year's food crisis in the semi-arid region, which borders the Sahara.

"In particularly bad years, 80 or 90 percent of people will leave their villages altogether in some parts of the Sahel," said RI's climate displacement expert Alice Thomas, author of a new report on the effects of recurrent climate shocks in the Sahel.

"More recurrent droughts and unpredictable rainfall have led to repeatedly poor harvests. As a result, poor households are no longer able to feed their families and increasingly they must leave their villages in order to survive."

Although the Sahel region is prone to drought, rains have become more erratic, making it hard for farmers and herders to anticipate when and where rain will fall and how much there will be.

More frequent droughts and floods have reduced crop yields and livestock herds, and wiped out villagers' savings - leaving many with no choice but to abandon their land, the report said.


Whole article see link above.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5715
GFS ALSO BRING IT TO THE COASTLINE,A LIL SLOWER IN TIME..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting 887. crankin:
Pretty impressive for D MIN. I don't think it is going anywhere soon.
How predictable and persistent is the shear that is supposed to be coming down from the north?
Maybe a little too impressive..

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting 888. hydrus:
This will be Dorian if it reaches tropical storm status is that correct.?


Right. The low-level vorticity has been clearly trackable over the past several days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting 863. redwagon:


There is no post #830.

It's been taken care of

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
This will be Dorian if it reaches tropical storm status is that correct.?

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Pretty impressive for D MIN. I don't think it is going anywhere soon.
How predictable and persistent is the shear that is supposed to be coming down from the north?
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Aaannd he's stationary. How long he stays that way is critical to whether or not he has one last joke to play on the forecasts. This would be his Magnus opus of a long line of tricks if he pulls it off, given its in unlikeliness. I give it a 5% chance of giving this front the slip.
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Long range radar out of TPBI is definitely starting to show something.

I'd be very surprised if the NHC doesn't give this a 40-50% chance at development.

FULL IMAGE

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting 882. hurricanes2018:
very high wind shear coming down from the north soon

wow!! maybe it get destroyed soon.
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very high wind shear coming down from the north soon
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South west winds at Grand Bahama and north east winds at Vero beach.

Definitely better organized.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting 877. nrtiwlnvragn:
Two clicks, twenty seconds is all it takes (use ignore)


The mods are being impressively quick about it. All you really have to do is wait a minute or so. I'm impressed. :P
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lets get em all anymore I need a quiet Friday night
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
878. beell
LOL, TA. for sure. A col can certainly be to blame for the squashed spider model outputs! Thanks.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16289

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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