Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 966. EricSFL:
Why does it seem (could be an illusion on radar) that exDorian is drifting southward?
Because that's where you want it to go.
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Quoting 971. EricSFL:

I'm trying to figure it out also...


Lol when I click it, its says there are some heavy thunderstorms moving south (apparently wrapping around the LLC) with wind gust of 35-45mph so winds are picking up we probably will see some gale warning go up regardless of development. Calling if you ever figure out how to get this pesky thing :)
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Truly amazing!! that basically all of Florida is getting rain and we here in Dade County have sunny skies no rain today at all!!, go and figure it out!!,just in our area!!.
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The two is late
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
973. 7544
the blob goes on and on .
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Quoting 970. ncstorm:


NRT, was there no 18z run of the HWRF? I didnt see it updated on the NCEP?


Just finished, don't know about NCEP these days, really slow in updating model runs.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting 968. Hurricanes305:
I have that orange special statement bar on the WU is anyone else getting this if so can someone tell me how to get rid of it everytime I close it. It reappears over my screen when I reload the page. Thanks :)

I'm trying to figure it out also...
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Quoting 963. nrtiwlnvragn:


Bouy Locator Link


NRT, was there no 18z run of the HWRF? I didnt see it updated on the NCEP?
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Quoting 950. bappit:
The northeasterly winds aloft coming in from the north could spell the end of Dorian the shy swirl.



Will it be the twice sheared storm?
I think it will be absorbed by the trough,up and out to the northeast..just my 2$
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I have that orange special statement bar on the WU is anyone else getting this if so can someone tell me how to get rid of it everytime I close it. It reappears over my screen when I reload the page. Thanks :)
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With the fast place the blog is moving (obvious sarcasm) their must be a cat 5 headed for Florida..(Looks at visible).Yep that is surely a cat 5 headed for them.It's not to late to evacuate folks...Looks like it's by passing.Oh never mind it's to late to evacuate conditions have rapidly deteriorated.Winds now blowing at 100 with gust to 125.Expect winds to rapidly increase to 130mph in the next 30 minutes and 165+ the next hour.

I hope everyone has taken precaution.
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Why does it seem (could be an illusion on radar) that exDorian is drifting southward?
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964: An oldie but goody!
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964. beell
Quoting 956. moonlightcowboy:
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)


Y'all figured out what this thing's gonna do yet?

What, we've been following this thing for three weeks and two days now. Someone ought to know what it's gonna do, I mean really! ;)


Well, "Sheara" the fat lady has not sung yet, but...



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16734
Quoting 959. bappit:

Thank you for sharing the links. I tried to find that buoy through the NDBC site but thought, ahh, I'll just try wundermap. Never again.

That ain't exactly a well-defined surface circulation. More of a line of wind shift, but good enough for an invest. No where near a TD. Maybe there is a swirl under the clouds. Would have to be tiny.


Bouy Locator Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
nice band or whatever you want to call it sitting over me in Weston
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956 moonlight...meant to +++++ :)
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Quoting 945. sar2401:

I just don't see any real improvement or circulation. Whatever is happening, more of the energy is moving N and NE. I don't see a definite LLCOC and the storm is not well stacked. I think shear is already having an effect. I see more impact on the sensible weather from sea breeze thunderstorms than what appears to be coming from the low. I'd be very surprised if this went up in the next TWO.


Getting that special yellow weather warning on my WU page. Some severe storms about the move through my area courtesy of 91L.

Dorian is much better stacked than we most give it credit for that was the purpose of the system reforming a new LLC a little further south where conditions are a little more favorable and where the convection and MLC was.

850mb


500mb


Its pretty stacked at the moment

Some dry air from the trough is slowing it down from really strengthening as the center is located in favorable 5-10kts of shear


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Quoting 951. Hurricanes305:


Although its not well defined like I said earlier it had a broad circulation earlier this afternoon the have been tightening up based on buoy data suggesting stiff westerlies



NW Bahamas Bouy

Thank you for sharing the links. I tried to find that buoy through the NDBC site but thought, ahh, I'll just try wundermap. Never again.

That ain't exactly a well-defined surface circulation. More of a line of wind shift, but good enough for an invest. No where near a TD. Maybe there is a swirl under the clouds. Would have to be tiny.
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ex dorian seems stuck usually we are talkin about systems stuck to hispanola
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Here's a record even I couldn't tell ya...

What storm has survived the longest between its first death and its regeneration?
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Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)


Y'all figured out what this thing's gonna do yet?

What, we've been following this thing for three weeks and two days now. Someone ought to know what it's gonna do, I mean really! ;)
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If the shear is coming down from the N how can it pick it up at the same time? The upper level winds with embedded storms coming down the center of Fla are spooling into the blob, while it looks like winds under that are coming across and into the central GOM from the NE...that's just what I see...what does it mean? (As Pee Wee would say) I don't know!
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Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12164
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12164


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12164
Quoting 938. bappit:

Do you have a link to the ASCAT? That sure would be useful in the future. That would be good evidence of a surface circ, but looking at the satellite, radar and buoy doesn't help much.


Although its not well defined like I said earlier it had a broad circulation earlier this afternoon the have been tightening up based on buoy data suggesting stiff westerlies



NW Bahamas Bouy
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The northeasterly winds aloft coming in from the north could spell the end of Dorian the shy swirl.



Will it be the twice sheared storm?
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting Levi32:
The wind is westerly at 24kts at a buoy near Freeport. Honestly the question of a closed circulation rests on whether there are easterly winds on the north side, not westerlies on the south side. This particular situation leaves the northern side the most fragile, opposite to the typical case.

I agree, and it appears, on satellite at least, that the north side is being most affected by the shear coming down from the north.
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Yes ok the Radar is down they're doing some work on it and not sure when it will be back up hopefully soon
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12164
946. SRQfl
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Quoting Hurricanes305:
I think we have a closed low based on buoys and satellite imagery. I think they might go code red on the next TWO. Getting darker where I am and I'm we have WNW winds. I would not be surprised if a possible renumber happens before 11pm tonight. ASCAT pass a couple of hours ago showed a well define circulation.

I just don't see any real improvement or circulation. Whatever is happening, more of the energy is moving N and NE. I don't see a definite LLCOC and the storm is not well stacked. I think shear is already having an effect. I see more impact on the sensible weather from sea breeze thunderstorms than what appears to be coming from the low. I'd be very surprised if this went up in the next TWO.
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earlier today he dismissed ex Dorian..this is storm is debunking even the most experienced forecasters..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

Dorian visible loop getting more impressive http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash -vis-short.html …
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Amazingly wild lightning storm here in the Fl. Heartland. Beautiful!
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Quoting 918. nrtiwlnvragn:
Wind shift Settlement Point, Grand Bahama


6:00 pm W ( 278 deg ) 22 kts
5:50 pm WSW ( 240 deg ) 13 kts
5:40 pm SSW ( 199 deg ) 11 kts
5:30 pm SSW ( 192 deg ) 12 kts
5:20 pm S ( 184 deg ) 11 kts
5:10 pm S ( 177 deg ) 10 kts

aarrrrrgh ... stupid WU buoy data is hourly and has no graph of direction
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
The wind is westerly at 24kts at a buoy near Freeport. Honestly the question of a closed circulation rests on whether there are easterly winds on the north side, not westerlies on the south side. This particular situation leaves the northern side the most fragile, opposite to the typical case.
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well guess we see in 45 mins what the NHC got to say about it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Quoting 929. Hurricanes305:
I think we have a closed low based on buoys and satellite imagery. I think they might go code red on the next TWO. Getting darker where I am and I'm we have WNW winds. I would not be surprised if a possible renumber happens before 11pm tonight. ASCAT pass a couple of hours ago showed a well define circulation.

Do you have a link to the ASCAT? That sure would be useful in the future. That would be good evidence of a surface circ, but looking at the satellite, radar and buoy doesn't help much.
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Quoting 933. Methurricanes:
West shift?, just a bit.

Also I see a bend back towards NE near the end, we may want to look for a left hook and due north into NS or ME
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Quoting 903. stormpetrol:
Quoting 840. wunderkidcayman:

Have information on what's happening to our radar it is off line again!

Again hmm I'll check but I don't know at the moment give me like 5 mins then I'll give you my answer

Quoting 916. LiveToFish0430:

Lol..anotherwrongyear..jeffreysweetiepie..thunder strommike..buzzardswrath.. tomuchshearthisyear.. It's all the same guy. He's gotta be setting a record for the most bans and new names in a one month period

Hmm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12164
Quoting 926. bappit:

I looked at buoys and wundermap and don't see any real evidence of a surface circulation. Can you point us in the direction of the evidence you mention? Movement of radar returns do indicate a mid-level circulation. I do see a west wind at Settlement Point, GBI (SPGF1) buoy but that only happened for the latest report. Was southerly before that. It might just be a breeze from a thunderstorm downdraft. The velocity is higher than preceding winds which is consistent with a downdraft gust.

Disregarding the ASCAT pass from this morning that revealed a surface circulation, the winds at Grand Bahama are out of the southwest. Winds along the East Coast of Florida...most specifically Vero Beach...are from the northeast. Per StormChaser2007's image a few posts below this one, winds south of the estimated low center are out of the west at 28 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting 931. midgulfmom:
922 Sflacat5 .... looks like it is spooling those storms around itself. Why aren't those attaching to the trough? Too far away? Truly don't know, just mentioning.


yes he has been stalled for a while earlier
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Quoting 923. ncstorm:
18z suite


West shift?, just a bit.
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Quoting 924. flcanes:

LOL. I think Stewart listens to this blog.
If I worked at the Hurricane Center, I would read the blog...Absolutely..:)..and say I did..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
922 Sflacat5 .... looks like it is spooling those storms around itself. Why aren't those attaching to the trough? Too far away? Truly don't know, just mentioning.
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930. SRQfl
Wind Analysis 18Z






I think the engine is firing now. This storm has been very interesting and tiresome to watch.
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I think we have a closed low based on buoys and satellite imagery. I think they might go code red on the next TWO. Getting darker where I am and I'm we have WNW winds. I would not be surprised if a possible renumber happens before 11pm tonight. ASCAT pass a couple of hours ago showed a well define circulation.
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Quoting 914. CybrTeddy:
35-40kt peak before weakening and dying.

Ow. The northeast winds pushing in from up north look deadly for 91L.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.