Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1011. DonnieBwkGA:
Levi's tropical tidbits GFS model brings ex-Dorian up to the SC coast as a very weak system and then SW to me in 60 hours. I don't believe that will happen.



That's why they call them "tidbits."
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When a real storm is out their that's worth tracking and life threatening (god forbid especially a storm headed to a major metro area) trolls won't even matter.I go right by their post like they don't exist.You all should do the same don't even acknowledge one is here.
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Interesting, not a single drop of rain all day here in Melbourne. Could someone post a map and show me where the NHC says the center is east of Melbourne. Because I don't see it.
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50% in 5 days? Huh? That percentage should have dropped way down if any at all.


@beell, good one!
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1022. sar2401
Quoting midgulfmom:


Go with your gut...

LOL. If only I knew what my gut was telling me. In California, we called this earthquake weather. Not really true, of course, but there is a fault out in the Gulf. The only strange weather I haven't caused since I moved here seven years ago is a hurricane...and an earthquake. I know, it's going to be a Sharknadocanequake. I'm off to copyright that immediately. :-)
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1018. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
move along nothing too see here
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Because it isn't the systems chance of being a tropical cyclone 5 days from now, it's the chance of it developing WITHIN 5 days
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1016. sar2401
Quoting Hurricane1956:
IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE

Don't quote....you're helping him. Just ignore and go on.
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1015. EricSFL
-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am hitting the ignore button right now!! Please don't respond to above post!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Levi's tropical tidbits GFS model brings ex-Dorian up to the SC coast as a very weak system and then SW to me in 60 hours. I don't believe that will happen.



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1007. sar2401
Quoting Abacosurf:


within.

No, during. If the chance really only exists in the first 2 days, shouldn't the percentage drop for 5 days? If these are not discrete 2 and 5 day periods, there is no added value to this change in forecast...at all.
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Quoting 986. sar2401:
Pretty weird here in SE Alabama. Very light SSW wind when there's any wind at all. Just a few cumulus and bright blue skies. It looks like a typical dry, subsiding air situation when we are on the wrong side of tropical storm. The only problem is the air isn't dry, and there's no tropical storm. It's 6:40 pm CDT and we are still at 95, which is one degree below our high. The dewpoint is still at 77 and the heat index is at 109. Some of this humidity is from our moist soil conditions, but the south wind indicates we are still getting flow off the Gulf. The only convection are a few scattered storms right on the coast near Pensacola and Panama City. The low last night was 75 and it's sure not going to get any cooler tonight. I have no idea what this has to do with 91L but, I suspect, as the trough is moving closer, it really is cutting us off from the unstable air but not from the Gulf flow completely. I don't know, but things just don't feel right.


Go with your gut...
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Quoting 1000. Camille33:
91l is forming yeh!!! I am gona be right
IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE,IGNORE
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1004. hydrus
.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
1003. JLPR2
Quoting 993. RTSplayer:
What the heck has gone wrong with my Google Chrome?

There are like 10 copies of "Chrome.exe" and each is a bigger resource hog than the last.

I never had this problem until a few days ago when I downloaded an update, and also downloaded Skype.


My DSL connection seems to be working at dial-up speeds...


It's always been like that for me, each tab and add-on represents a "Chrome.exe" tab. But it has never slowed my pc down. :\

And now to be on topic...


Not bad for D-min
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1002. sar2401
Quoting RTSplayer:
What the heck has gone wrong with my Google Chrome?

There are like 10 copies of "Chrome.exe" and each is a bigger resource hog than the last.

I never had this problem until a few days ago when I downloaded an update, and also downloaded Skype.


My DSL connection seems to be working at dial-up speeds...

Standard MS answer...uninstall...reinstall...then switch to Firefox. :-)
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1001. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
91l is forming yeh!!! I am gona be right
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Quoting 994. sar2401:

So, there's a 50% chance of development before it meets all that shear Saturday. By Sunday, merges with the trough and is carried off eastward. How can this have a 50% chance in the 2 days...and still have a 50% chance in five days? That can't be correct. If they aren't going to give what they think the real percentage of development is in five days, why did they bother to come up with this new forecast system?


within.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL Ensembles throw out some weak "left hooks"


LOL. Looks like the plan view for a railroad switch yard.
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Quoting pie314271:
Ouch.

That's it...ouch? What does that mean exactly?
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GFDL Ensembles throw out some weak "left hooks"

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
it august I see lots of wind shear here
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

So, there's a 50% chance of development before it meets all that shear Saturday. By Sunday, merges with the trough and is carried off eastward. How can this have a 50% chance in the 2 days...and still have a 50% chance in five days? That can't be correct. If they aren't going to give what they think the real percentage of development is in five days, why did they bother to come up with this new forecast system?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What the heck has gone wrong with my Google Chrome?

There are like 10 copies of "Chrome.exe" and each is a bigger resource hog than the last.

I never had this problem until a few days ago when I downloaded an update, and also downloaded Skype.


My DSL connection seems to be working at dial-up speeds...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 990. nrtiwlnvragn:


Normally shows up on the FSU site but I don't see it there. It is showing up on NCEP now.


thank you!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


Ouch.
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Quoting 981. ncstorm:


is there another place I can find it..Huffman's site, I'm not fond of..TIA


Normally shows up on the FSU site but I don't see it there. It is showing up on NCEP now.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
Quoting 809. crankin:
Here it is. Col is a word,


col [kɒl (French) kɔl]
n
1. (Earth Sciences / Geological Science) the lowest point of a ridge connecting two mountain peaks, often constituting a pass

2. (Earth Sciences / Physical Geography) Meteorol a pressure region between two anticyclones and two depressions, associated with variable weather
Just dropping in for a sec.
col in meteorology has the practical consequence of little to no steering flow.

Despite what the models are saying, it seems like the trough is laying down and getting bridged. Look like a good chunk of ex-Dorian's moisture is already getting shunted NE, but I am not convinced that all of it will go with the trough. I'll be watching closely.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
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Quoting 982. seer2012:


I just removed mine by placing the cursor on the x at the right side of the bar


Yea I tried that obviously but it reappears after I reload the page if you know how to make it permanently go away then I would appreciate that.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Pretty weird here in SE Alabama. Very light SSW wind when there's any wind at all. Just a few cumulus and bright blue skies. It looks like a typical dry, subsiding air situation when we are on the wrong side of tropical storm. The only problem is the air isn't dry, and there's no tropical storm. It's 6:40 pm CDT and we are still at 95, which is one degree below our high. The dewpoint is still at 77 and the heat index is at 109. Some of this humidity is from our moist soil conditions, but the south wind indicates we are still getting flow off the Gulf. The only convection are a few scattered storms right on the coast near Pensacola and Panama City. The low last night was 75 and it's sure not going to get any cooler tonight. I have no idea what this has to do with 91L but, I suspect, as the trough is moving closer, it really is cutting us off from the unstable air but not from the Gulf flow completely. I don't know, but things just don't feel right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
985. beell
Quoting 983. chrisdscane:
Look at the Panhandle, The shear isnt far away thoose storms over panhandle got ripped by shear.


Same for the sea breeze convection running down the center of Florida.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16260
Quoting 974. TropicalAnalystwx13:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


LMAO I nailed it the first time by saying 50% then I changed to 60% when I saw how quickly its starting to tighten up. I guess if it was Stewart it would have been code red. In anycase I wouldnt be surprise if a renumber came in within the next 2 hours or so.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Look at the Panhandle, The shear isnt far away thoose storms over panhandle got ripped by shear.
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Quoting 968. Hurricanes305:
I have that orange special statement bar on the WU is anyone else getting this if so can someone tell me how to get rid of it everytime I close it. It reappears over my screen when I reload the page. Thanks :)


I just removed mine by placing the cursor on the x at the right side of the bar
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Quoting 972. nrtiwlnvragn:


Just finished, don't know about NCEP these days, really slow in updating model runs.


is there another place I can find it..Huffman's site, I'm not fond of..TIA
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
Whatever the set-up is....after 2 weeks I'm not thinking this "whatever-it-is" is gonna' go quietly off and away into the night. Diurnal cycles and trof history calls for a 50%+ probability of a "max over Miami".
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979. beell
Perhaps some effects of the stronger NE upper-level winds between 28-30N/78-80W as the convection takes on a SW-NE slant.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16260
Quoting 966. EricSFL:
Why does it seem (could be an illusion on radar) that exDorian is drifting southward?
Because that's where you want it to go.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.