Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Dvorak technique, all interpretation.
Two different analysts, one from SAB the other from TAFB. SAB says too weak to classify. TAFB says dvorak 2.0, 30 kts.


AL 91 201308022345 DVTS 2780N 7900W SAB DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT


AL 91 201308022345 DVTS 2810N 7890W TAFB 2020 ///// 0.35 BANDING = DT=MET= FT= 2.0. CLOUDS POINT TO ELO

Not sure what ELO means in the TAFB comment.
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0z ATCF update for 91L.

AL, 91, 2013080300, , BEST, 0, 279N, 796W, 25, 1015, LO
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1076. sar2401
So 91L started out as 20% at 2:00 pm Thursday. It was 30% at 8:00 pm Thursday. It was next 40% at 2:00 am today, then down to 30% at 8:00 am, still 30% at 2:00 pm, now 50%. Really, I wish I knew someone at the NHC. I can see it now - "Ok, tails it's 30%, heads it's 40%". :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9679
sar2401... at the risk of sounding COMPLETLY crazy! I said to "go with your gut" because a few things I've had a gut premonition about came true. I can't fortell the future or anything but more than once I've had a nagging knowing that proved true. And the atmosphere here in S LA has been pretty humid and heavy as well. My dad used to have a store on Irish Bayou in eastern N.O. and there is a fault line there as well and a few times there were quakes that knocked people there from their beds. It was even reported on the local news. Also in St. James Parish, LA at the Laura Plantation property, there is a fault line that opened up in around 1840 (thereabouts). The Mississippi river flowed upstream (backwards)for a while then.
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1074. EricSFL
A stationary storm sitting on the Gulf Stream current (which moves at about 12mph at its strongest point) would receive a constant supply of warm water without much upwelling of cold water, correct?
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1073. Patrap
Quoting 1068. Camille33:

what chance do you give of this of forming!!


I'm not a met.

So go with the NHC.


There are no amateur Mets just as there are no amateur astronauts.
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1072. flcanes
Quoting 1066. Patrap:
Dedicated to the Atlantic SAL



BREAKING NEWS
SAL spreads across atlantic, killing storms.
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Quoting 1069. sar2401:

That's the GFS having one its psychotic moments again. It loves to break of pieces of system and scatter them randomly around the area.


Good point but it's the NAM who's guilty in this case :)
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The way I understand the new genesis forecast is from this diagram from the NHC presentation NHC Experimental 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook page 6.




There is 1-2 day genesis, 3-5 day genesis and 1-5 day genesis. 1-5 day is the addition of 1-2 plus 3-5.

So for the most recent TWO where the 48 hours is 50% and the 5 day is 50%, I interpret as 0% for days 3-5.
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1069. sar2401
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
NAM splits ex-Dorian with the big piece going out to sea but a little low again heading N to the SC coast and then SW back to GA.


That's the GFS having one its psychotic moments again. It loves to break of pieces of system and scatter them randomly around the area.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9679
Quoting 1058. Patrap:
The Front/trof is very weak now, and is washing out in a way.

Don't count this situ over by ANY means,...


It is a CV seedling with lotsa flava' still.


2013 is the Year of the Global weather anomaly awakening.


what chance do you give of this of forming!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1256
1067. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

It's looking ok it ain't the worst system we've seen but it sure isn't best nether

WKC, when you start losing faith in a storm, it's definitely on a bad path. ;-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9679
1066. Patrap
Dedicated to the Atlantic SAL


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1065. guygee
Quoting 1026. hurricanewatcher61:
Interesting, not a single drop of rain all day here in Melbourne. Could someone post a map and show me where the NHC says the center is east of Melbourne. Because I don't see it.
It is east of Melbourne in the general sense, like Europe and Africa are east of Melbourne. It is not due east of Melbourne, however, not even close. I would say closer to due east of Port St. Lucie looking at the radar and satellite loops. Of course, Port St. Lucie is in the Melbourne NWS forecast zone, covered in the Melbourne NWS AFD. Maybe that is what they mean.
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NAM splits ex-Dorian with the big piece going out to sea but a little low again heading N to the SC coast and then SW back to GA.

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1063. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Too weak is exactly what it says its too weak so no not classified as TD


Even though it starts out:

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

OK, makes perfect sense to me.
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1062. Patrap
Note the dry air filtering out n the WV Loop here, and the Moisture along the SouthEast coast and inland.

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1061. sar2401
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Several GFS runs in the past 2 days have spun up a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean around August 15 and bring it ashore the Mexican gulf coast around Tampico on August 18th.

I think that's the most realistic storm I've seen out of the GFS in about a month, so I'll go with it. I don't think we're going to see a CV storm until late August.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9679
These storms that stall of Florida are dangerous. X/d seems to be drifting south.
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Quoting 1054. sar2401:

Lost me on this one. Is 91L now a TD or is it too weak to classify as a TD? I wish they'd figure out we now have more than 64k of RAM available and just write these things out in plain English.

Too weak is exactly what it says its too weak so no not classified as TD
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9549
1058. Patrap
The Front/trof is very weak now, and is washing out in a way.

Don't count this situ over by ANY means,...


It is a CV seedling with lotsa flava' still.


2013 is the Year of the Global weather anomaly awakening.

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1057. EricSFL
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Quoting 1050. Patrap:
Yes there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run..

But there's still time to change the road yer on..


I hope so.


It's looking ok it ain't the worst system we've seen but it sure isn't best nether
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9549
Quoting 1022. sar2401:

LOL. If only I knew what my gut was telling me. In California, we called this earthquake weather. Not really true, of course, but there is a fault out in the Gulf. The only strange weather I haven't caused since I moved here seven years ago is a hurricane...and an earthquake. I know, it's going to be a Sharknadocanequake. I'm off to copyright that immediately. :-)


LOL... DEFINITELY! stepped away for a bit. :D !!!

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1054. sar2401
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TXNT22 KNES 030002
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

B. 02/2345Z

C. 27.8N

D. 79.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS WARMED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BANDING FAILS TO EXCEED 2/10 MAKING THIS
SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


Link

Lost me on this one. Is 91L now a TD or is it too weak to classify as a TD? I wish they'd figure out we now have more than 64k of RAM available and just write these things out in plain English.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9679
Several GFS runs in the past 2 days have spun up a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean around August 15 and bring it ashore the Mexican gulf coast around Tampico on August 18th.



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Quoting 1046. nrtiwlnvragn:
TXNT22 KNES 030002
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

B. 02/2345Z

C. 27.8N

D. 79.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS WARMED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BANDING FAILS TO EXCEED 2/10 MAKING THIS
SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


Link


Quoting 1045. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm 50%/50% ok reasonable


Or not
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9549
1050. Patrap
Yes there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run..

But there's still time to change the road yer on..


I hope so.

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Quoting 994. sar2401:

So, there's a 50% chance of development before it meets all that shear Saturday. By Sunday, merges with the trough and is carried off eastward. How can this have a 50% chance in the 2 days...and still have a 50% chance in five days? That can't be correct. If they aren't going to give what they think the real percentage of development is in five days, why did they bother to come up with this new forecast system?
It's not a good sign right off the bat that they flub a probability forecast. But is it a flub or a flaw in the design?, or the communication? One would think that the extra day3-day5 probability should be for day3-day5....but perhaps it's for day1-5...which means the second figure can never be less than the first and virtually worthless.
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Quoting 1037. hydrus:
Very cool pic 305..


Thanks but those dark clouds are rolling in fast it looks almost purple-red LOL. Reminds me when I was in the eye of Wilma. It has cool colors to show off the beauty and power of Mother Nature.



Last off-topic post I promise :)
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1047. sar2401
Quoting stormpetrol:
It's a good thing Dorian had everything stacked against it, or it could have been something to reckon with, just sayin...

Quite true, although it wouldn't have been hanging around so long if it didn't have so many things stacked against it. My takeaway from the season so far is that storm formation is not the problem, but storm survival definitely is. That's the good thing. The bad thing is that one with enough energy to survive isn't going to be some crummy invest hanging around for days but will be coming to a neighborhood near us.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9679
TXNT22 KNES 030002
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

B. 02/2345Z

C. 27.8N

D. 79.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS WARMED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BANDING FAILS TO EXCEED 2/10 MAKING THIS
SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


Link
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Hmm 50%/50% ok reasonable
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9549
1044. Patrap
In National Weather news today



A mobile home is damaged after a severe storm passed through the area, Friday, Aug. 2, 2013 in Acton, Mont. Strong thunderstorms that moved across Montana left a trail of damage to crops and buildings along with downed trees and power outages. (AP Photo/The Billings Gazette, James Woodcock)

Strong winds, possible tornados damage buildings, crops across wide swath of Montana
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
First Posted: August 02, 2013 - 7:51 pm


HELENA, Montana — Strong thunderstorms that moved across Montana left a trail of damage to crops and buildings along with downed trees and power outages.

The worst damage from Thursday's storm may have occurred in Gallatin County, where winds gusting up to 89 mph devastated wheat and barley crops that likely would have been harvested next week, Montana Grain Growers Vice President Matt Flikkema said.

"I've never seen crop damage to the extent we have here in the valley," Flikkema said Friday. "There are very little crops that will be harvested out of the area."

Flikkema said the damage could approach $50 million, even without taking into consideration what happened to 5,000 acres of potatoes.

Most of the grain crops are used for seed, meaning there could be a shortage of seed to plant next year, he said.

The storm started in southwestern Montana, where wind gusts up to 104 mph were recorded in Polaris, northwest of Dillon, causing major damage to homes and some trees, the National Weather Service reported.

Betty Barnes of Polaris said she lost several trees, including a big one that fell near her driveway.

"I said to myself, 'Well, thanks, God, for the firewood and for protecting my house,'" Barnes told The Montana Standard.

Strong winds and possibly a tornado caused severe damage in Twin Bridges, uprooting trees and blowing the roof off at least one building.

A weather service representative was expected to visit Twin Bridges on Friday to determine if a tornado had touched down, said Steve DiGiovanna of Madison County Disaster and Emergency Services.

Some falling trees damaged historic buildings, including the museum, and the roof was ripped off a veterinary clinic outside of Twin Bridges. An airport hangar was destroyed, a travel trailer was crushed by falling trees, and a grandstand at the Madison County Fairgrounds was flipped over and destroyed, he said.

Twin Bridges Mayor Tom Hyndman said the wind also uprooted a large spruce tree that is decorated every year for the town's Christmas Stroll.

Golf-ball sized hail fell across much of Belgrade and the northern part of Bozeman, the weather service reported.

NWS meteorologist Todd Chambers of Billings said the storm began in the southwestern part of the state Thursday afternoon and moved east, causing damage as far away as Billings.

The "long-lived, long-path" storm was unusual for this time of year, he said.

In eastern Montana, a funnel cloud was reported near Acton, northwest of Billings, where at least four mobile homes were destroyed and at least three more were damaged by apparent straight-line winds gusting up to 90 mph.

The Billings Gazette reports the wind picked up two of the trailers in a trailer park, with one of them being tossed into a neighboring trailer.

Duane Cowdin lost his garage to the storm, which he said scattered debris "from hell to breakfast."

Cowdin said a neighbor's horse was spooked by the storm, got tangled in barbed wire and had to be put down because its leg was so badly damaged.

There was another unconfirmed report of a tornado in Broadview, Chambers said.

Golf-ball-sized hail was reported in parts of Billings, as well. A tree on the West End caught fire after being struck by lightning.

The storm knocked out power along its path and crews were still working Friday morning to restore service.

A second set of storms moved through the Helena. Over an inch of rain fell in a swath, moving northeast from an area near the city through eastern Chouteau County, the weather service said.
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Quoting 1027. washingtonian115:
When a real storm is out their that's worth tracking and life threatening (god forbid especially a storm headed to a major metro area) trolls won't even matter.I go right by their post like they don't exist.You all should do the same don't even acknowledge one is here.

This. They would eventually go away if people did not acknowledge them...that includes the 'don't quote, ignore!!!' posts. It would also be helpful if moderators didn't make posts such as, "lets get em all anymore I need a quiet Friday night". Just do your job quietly and move on please. The trolls will eventually do the same.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting 1030. sar2401:

Although this does rather emphasize my point of a join date filter.


You think I would sneak in under your proposed join date filter...back on topic no rain in Nassau from 91L since last night 3 a.m.
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1040. sar2401
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you very much!! sar2401,I know that is what I have to do!! but sometimes it's so annoyed!!!!,when we are trying to get good information from this superb!!! weather blog,it's truly a shame of members doing this kind of stuff!!.

There are bad guys in every neighborhood in the country. You don't have to say hello though. :-)
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It's a good thing Dorian had everything stacked against it, or it could have been something to reckon with, just sayin...
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1038. Patrap
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1037. hydrus
Quoting 1033. Hurricanes305:
Wow, it would've been great if everyone could of seen the sunset over my house its a classic red color kinda like this:



You can see the dark clouds behind it a classic setup for a rainy night.

Sorry for being off topic :)
Very cool pic 305..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
Quoting 1026. hurricanewatcher61:
Interesting, not a single drop of rain all day here in Melbourne. Could someone post a map and show me where the NHC says the center is east of Melbourne. Because I don't see it.

Its been nice out! Definetly a great evening to cut the grass with the light breeze but agreed, wouldn't have any idea anything at all is out there!
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1035. hydrus
The 150 hour GFS has a vort heading towards the east coast of Florida..

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
1034. sar2401
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
Interesting, not a single drop of rain all day here in Melbourne. Could someone post a map and show me where the NHC says the center is east of Melbourne. Because I don't see it.

All the precipitation, and there's not much, according to radar estimates, is to the east side of the storm. It looks to me like, if you didn't get any rain from sea breeze thunderstorms, you're not going to get any from the rapidly exiting 91L.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9679
Wow, it would've been great if everyone could of seen the sunset over my house its a classic red color kinda like this:



You can see the dark clouds behind it a classic setup for a rainy night.

Sorry for being off topic :)
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 1016. sar2401:

Don't quote....you're helping him. Just ignore and go on.
Thank you very much!! sar2401,I know that is what I have to do!! but sometimes it's so annoyed!!!!,when we are trying to get good information from this superb!!! weather blog,it's truly a shame of members doing this kind of stuff!!.
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1030. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
move along nothing too see here

Although this does rather emphasize my point of a join date filter.
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1029. Patrap
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Quoting 1011. DonnieBwkGA:
Levi's tropical tidbits GFS model brings ex-Dorian up to the SC coast as a very weak system and then SW to me in 60 hours. I don't believe that will happen.



That's why they call them "tidbits."
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.