Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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1178. sar2401
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What? this isn't hard. If there is a 50% chance to form within two days, and they don't think it'll increase after day two then the prob. stays the same. Because if it happens within two days, it also is concurrently happening in 5 days.

Yes, it is that hard. You're saying that if there's a 50% chance a storm will form in two days and it doesn't, that mean the probability of it not getting high or lower than 50% in the next three days is zero? If so, get rid of the two day and just make it five days. 91L is a prime example. Do you actually think, if it doesn't improve in the next two days, the probability it will improve in the next three days is not going down? This is simply needless confusion with no added information.
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Is the center still stationary?
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Quoting 1171. CaribBoy:


They get cyclones every year!!

I bet I could find a year when Mexico didn't get a tropical cyclone, at least not from the Atlantic. ;)
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Quoting 1173. sar2401:

I'm sure this sounded like a good idea at the time but, if they are just going to give the same probs for all five days, they haven't made a helpful change. This is the first storm to test the system and it certainly appears no one is willing to go out on a limb and lower the 5 day probability, which makes absolutely no sense.


First, it's been being used for 2 days.

Second, the probability LITERALLY cannot go down for the 5 day timeframe, compared to the two day one. Once there is a storm with a BETTER chance to form after the third day, you will see the change.
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Quoting 1171. CaribBoy:


They get cyclones every year!!


cool
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1173. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


Yeah, we need clarification. The NHC said THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. But they also said... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. So how can they give 91L a 50% chance in 5 days when in 3 days they say it is expected to merge with a frontal trough.

I'm sure this sounded like a good idea at the time but, if they are just going to give the same probs for all five days, they haven't made a helpful change. This is the first storm to test the system and it certainly appears no one is willing to go out on a limb and lower the 5 day probability, which makes absolutely no sense.
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The NHC'll read the blog again and see the people arguing over what they mean by "in the next 5 days"

Then they'll realize it was a bad idea.
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Quoting 1052. DonnieBwkGA:
Several GFS runs in the past 2 days have spun up a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean around August 15 and bring it ashore the Mexican gulf coast around Tampico on August 18th.





They get cyclones every year!!
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1170. Patrap
Sandy

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702

HOT WATER IN THE GOM!
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Quoting 1162. sar2401:

Yeah, Ft. Rucker AL radar (KEOX) was down for two days. I tried to warn them when they took the low bid for maintenance from Bubba's Radar and CB Shop there would be problems, but did they listen.....? :-)


It wouldnt bother me so much if it wasnt so frequently....ever since the dual-polarization upgrade, it seems they have an unexpected failure each week. Sometimes twice a week.

And it always happens when there are scattered thunderstorms in the forecast, too.
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Quoting 1160. AussieStorm:


Yeah, we need clarification. The NHC said THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. But they also said... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. So how can they give 91L a 50% chance in 5 days when in 3 days they say it is expected to n merge with a frontal trough.


What? this isn't hard. If there is a 50% chance to form within two days, and they don't think it'll increase after day two then the prob. stays the same. Because if it happens within two days, it also is concurrently happening in 5 days.
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Quoting 1086. CybrTeddy:


But there are amateur astronomers (which I consider myself proudly to be). :-)
Quoting 1086. CybrTeddy:


But there are amateur astronomers (which I consider myself proudly to be). :-)


Have you seen M-22 under real dark skies lately? So very nice.
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The GFS develops a storm? Yes.

Where? GOM.

BORING!!! Where are the CAPE VERDE STORMS!! XD
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Quoting 1152. Tropicsweatherpr:

I am beggining to think the CV season will be below average and most of the developments will take place west of 60W because of the low instability in MDR between Africa and Lesser Antilles in other words more homegrown than CV systems.

The MDR has been dry so far this season because the high has suppressed the Intertropical Convergence Zone far to the south. When this lifts northward, we should see an increase in atmospheric moisture. Above-average sea surface temperatures favor upward motion across this part of the Atlantic, and we've actually seen that so far this year.

Compare the 200mb velocity potential map for July 2013:



to that of the averaged map for the top ten ACE year for the same month:

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1163. Patrap
Hurricane Forecast Computer Models
By Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology


The behavior of the atmosphere is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as mathematical equations. These equations represent how atmospheric quantities such as temperature, wind speed and direction, humidity, etc., will change from their initial current values (at the present time). If we can solve these equations, we will have a forecast. We can do this by sub-dividing the atmosphere into a 3-D grid of points and solving these equations at each point. These models have three main sources of error:

1) Initialization: We have an imperfect description of what the atmosphere is doing right now, due to lack of data (particularly over the oceans). When the model starts, is has an incorrect picture of the initial state of the atmosphere, so will always generate a forecast that is imperfect.

2) Resolution: Models are run on 3-D grids that cover the entire globe. Each grid point represents of piece of atmosphere perhaps 40 km on a side. Thus, processes smaller than that (such as thunderstorms) are not handled well, and must be "parameterized". This means we make up parameters (fudge factors) that do a good job giving the right forecast most of the time. Obviously, the fudge factors aren't going to work for all situations.

3) Basic understanding: Our basic understanding of the physics governing the atmosphere is imperfect, so the equations we're using aren't quite right.

Types of hurricane forecasting models

The best hurricane forecasting models we have are "global" models that solve the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the atmosphere at every point on the globe. Models that solve these equations are called "dynamical" models. The four best hurricane forecast models—ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET—are all global dynamical models. These models take several hours to run on the world's most advanced supercomputers.

There are also dynamical models that cover just a portion of the globe. These are less useful, unless the hurricane happens to start out inside the domain the model covers and stay there. Hurricanes moving from outside the model domain into the model domain are not well handled. An example of this kind of model is the NAM model covering North America and the surrounding waters, run by the National Weather Service (NWS).

Another type of hurricane model is a statistical model. These models do not try to solve mathematical equations on a grid. The advantage of these statistical models is that they are fast to run and can provide output in a few minutes. There are also hybrid statistical/dynamical models, and simple trajectory models.

A full list of all of the tropical cyclone track and intensity models can be found on the National Hurricane Center's website.

A summary of the top six models:

ECMWF: The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model is the premier global model in the world for medium range weather forecasting in the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that starting producing very accurate hurricanes forecasts.

GFS: The Global Forecast System model run by the NWS. Excellent graphics are available on the web from the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Wunderground.com also has GFS plots. I like the Tropical Atlantic imagery. If you select "Shear" from the "level" menu, then click on "Add a Map", you'll get plots of the wind shear that I talk so much about.

GFDL: The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Wunderground.com makes these graphics available on Wundermap. More detailed GFDL graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "GHM" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.

HWRF: The NWS/Hurricane Weather Research Model. HWRF is a non-hydrostatic a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Detailed HWRF graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "HWRF" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

NOGAPS: The U.S. Navy's Navy Operational Global Prediction Center System. Graphics are available at the Navy web site. This model has been performing poorly in recent years compared to the other global models, so it has been removed from the consensus models that the National hurricane Center uses as of 2011.

One other model worth looking at, but not as good as the other six is the Canadian GEM model.

Non-global models
The BAMM model (Beta and advection model, medium layer) is included on Wundermap. The BAMM is a simple trajectory model that is very fast to run, and did the best of any individual model at 3-5 day track forecasts in 2005. Since this model is always available, we have included it along with the "big four". In general, one should not trust the BAMM model for the 1-2 day time period when output from "the big four" are available. "The big four" are generally not available for tropical disturbances, and for these situations we post plots of a number of other non-global models such as the LBAR, A98E, etc. All of these models are described in detail on NHC's web site.

Model performance

So which is the best? The best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF. This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our Wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 3, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
1162. sar2401
Quoting SPLbeater:
This is pathetic.

000
NOUS62 KRAH 022147
FTMRAX
Message Date: Aug 02 2013 21:47:19

KRAX IS DOWN DUE TO MALFUNCTION...RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.

Yeah, Ft. Rucker AL radar (KEOX) was down for two days. I tried to warn them when they took the low bid for maintenance from Bubba's Radar and CB Shop there would be problems, but did they listen.....? :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13514
Another question: Do any of the models use any AI, learn from their mistakes by backtracking through the data to see what influences were missed or miscalculated, what caused the miscalculation, figure the correction, and incorporate it into future forecasts? Not that we want the creation of the Terminator or anything like that...
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's the problem.
.
If it's day 1-5 and not day 3-5 then we're left guessing about what the probability is day 3-5. 40/40 could mean 40/0, 40/10, 40/30 or 40/40, or 40/50 even if it's a close call.
.
They need to clarify the point for the prob and wx geeks.


Yeah, we need clarification. The NHC said THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. But they also said... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. So how can they give 91L a 50% chance in 5 days when in 3 days they say it is expected to merge with a frontal trough.
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1159. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
1158. sar2401
Quoting EyEtoEyE:
It makes alot of sense , go listen to the TWC! Hear for yourself , not making anything up!

I'm sure you're not making anything up, I'm just not sure what you're hearing is actually how you interpret it. Just look at the current model runs. They are absolutely unanimous in sending 91L NNE and out to sea. There is no fading front. 91L is leaving. It's not going into Florida, it's not going into the Gulf. This play is in the final act.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13514
This is pathetic.

000
NOUS62 KRAH 022147
FTMRAX
Message Date: Aug 02 2013 21:47:19

KRAX IS DOWN DUE TO MALFUNCTION...RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.
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1156. guygee
Quoting 1134. Methurricanes:
That's the same region.
Any LLC out there is not NNE of the Bahamas right now. So it is not the same. Granted all of the models say it will be NNE of the Bahamas in the future, but it is not there now, and seems to be stationary at this time.

Yes it is a rare event when all the models agree and turn out to be wrong. I really do not expect that to happen this time. But a col is like a meteorological Twilight Zone, and this thing at my front door, so I am thinking in devil's advocate mode until it clears out. I'm watching it until it's gone.
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1155. Patrap
<
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
1154. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (T1309)
9:00 AM JST August 3 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jebi (985 hPa) located at 20.9N 107.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 23.7N 103.2E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China

Additional Information
=======================
JEBI will move west northwestward for the next 12 hours

Cyclone will be downgraded to a tropical depression in 24 hours

Cyclone will weaken due to landfall expected within 6 hours over Vietnam
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Quoting 1138. beell:


I'm struggling with it.

All I can figure is the NHC is giving a 50% chance that 91L will still be a viable INVEST on day 3, lol.
That's the problem.
.
If it's day 1-5 and not day 3-5 then we're left guessing about what the probability is day 3-5. 40/40 could mean 40/0, 40/10, 40/20, 40/30 or 40/40, or 40/50 even if it's a close call.
.
They need to clarify the point for the prob and wx geeks.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5540
Quoting 1141. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS continues to develop a tropical cyclone in the southwestern Caribbean in a little over 10 days. It tracks across the Yucatan and intensifies to a mid-grade tropical storm before making landfall near Tampico. While this scenario is certainly plausible, and actually favored as a weak pulse of the MJO passes across the west Atlantic...and the TUTT retrogrades westward allowing for a favorable upper-air environment...we might want to be careful of the GFS' tendency to over-amplify the monsoon circulation when bringing the MJO in our neck of the woods. I'd give it a bit more credence considering the CMC and ECMWF show a lowering of atmospheric pressures across the region in the extended range.


I am beggining to think the CV season will be below average and most of the developments will take place west of 60W because of the low instability in MDR between Africa and Lesser Antilles in other words more homegrown than CV systems.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Quoting 1123. whitewabit:



open
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1150. Patrap
<
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
cody im not buying it. ^_^
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Quoting 1133. sar2401:

Every single dynamical model has it ENE and out to sea. As much as I'm not a firm believer in models, I'm not foolish enough to believe every single one of them is wrong. In terms of future storms, it's not going to be much different until the A-B moves north and the SAL dust starts to clear up. When that happens, it will start to be nail-biting time.


I agree with you, and you may be correct. Just think there are alot of players in this equation and anything can happen with this blob. Lol it should have died along time ago.
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Quoting 1142. sar2401:

Anything in particular or just life in general?
Life in general
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1146. sar2401
Quoting Pallis:
That would be the main band. A trick I use is to watch the bottom of the circulation, which is usually pretty round at night, and look to see which way it is moving, and then try to determine if it is growing or actually moving in that direction. In this case, at least for a wee bit, it seems to have moved ever so slightly south. Look at Patrap's colorful radars and really geek on them for a minute.

I keep looking but, with all the different bands of convection around, and now with more convection over land than over the ocean, I can't tell what's moving where. The latest satellite frames show offshore convection fading away at an amazing rate.
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Quoting 1143. Pallis:
That would be the main band. A trick I use is to watch the bottom of the circulation, which is usually pretty round at night, and look to see which way it is moving, and then try to determine if it is growing or actually moving in that direction. In this case, at least for a wee bit, it seems to have moved ever so slightly south. Look at Patrap's colorful radars and really geek on them for a minute.


Good observation, technique. I mentioned earlier that the ULL in the northwest Caribbean was still significantly extorting steering away from the weak frontal trough.
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1144. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS continues to develop a tropical cyclone in the southwestern Caribbean in a little over 10 days. It tracks across the Yucatan and intensifies to a mid-grade tropical storm before making landfall near Tampico. While this scenario is certainly plausible, and actually favored as a weak pulse of the MJO passes across the west Atlantic...and the TUTT retrogrades westward allowing for a favorable upper-air environment...we might want to be careful of the GFS' tendency to over-amplify the monsoon circulation when bringing the MJO in our neck of the woods. I'd give it a bit more credence considering the CMC and ECMWF show a lowering of atmospheric pressures across the region in the extended range.


I don't know why, Cody, since I almost never trust the GFS this far out, but I think this may actually happen. It's the area where things are the least bad for storm formation, if nothing else, and the Yucatan has been amazingly quiet this year so far.
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1143. Pallis
Quoting 1106. sar2401:

Looks like some convection inland is going offshore and keeping some of the convection in the fast fading 91L alive, assuming that's where 91L is, which I'm not sure about either. Either way, it doesn't look like it's moving much, if at all.
That would be the main band. A trick I use is to watch the bottom of the circulation, which is usually pretty round at night, and look to see which way it is moving, and then try to determine if it is growing or actually moving in that direction. In this case, at least for a wee bit, it seems to have moved ever so slightly south. Look at Patrap's colorful radars and really geek on them for a minute.
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1142. sar2401
Quoting sebastianflorida:
This is unbelievable!

Anything in particular or just life in general?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13514
The GFS continues to develop a tropical cyclone in the southwestern Caribbean in a little over 10 days. It tracks across the Yucatan and intensifies to a mid-grade tropical storm before making landfall near Tampico. While this scenario is certainly plausible, and actually favored as a weak pulse of the MJO passes across the west Atlantic...and the TUTT retrogrades westward allowing for a favorable upper-air environment...we might want to be careful of the GFS' tendency to over-amplify the monsoon circulation when bringing the MJO in our neck of the woods. I'd give it a bit more credence considering the CMC and ECMWF show a lowering of atmospheric pressures across the region in the extended range.

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1140. sar2401
Quoting TerraformingMaster:
Have there ever been cases where a tropical wave or depression or storm has split into two storms? In which one or the other later became a cane? ex-Dorian appears now and has appeared a few times in the last 10 days to have two different COCs. Might explain why the NHC can't pinpoint the COC.

I sure don't know of one, but there are many better hurricane historians here than me. Methodologically, it would have to be one heck of a TW or TD to have something like that happen.
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This is unbelievable!
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1138. beell
Quoting 1125. CosmicEvents:
I was speaking to storms or potential storms that have lower probs as time went on, like 91L. It should be conveyed as 40/10, with the 120hr figure representing day 3-5, and to put it simply for the public, it's now or never.
.
For the storms with more probability out in time(day3-5), then that can be conveyed as 40/60(as an example).
.
I thought that they'd communicate a situation like we see right now with our first potential TD as 40/10, with 10 representing day3-5. If it's day1-5 it's not worth as much. In any case, it's just more confusing until they do explain the number plainly.
.
Is the 2nd number day 1-5 or day 3-5 would be a great place to start with a yes or no answer.


I'm struggling with it.

All I can figure is the NHC is giving a 50% chance that 91L will still be a viable INVEST on day 3, lol.
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Quoting 1134. Methurricanes:
That's the same region.


Wait, who's on first? ;)
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1136. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:


I won't be going over it most likely, since my destination is in the mid-Atlantic.

OK, it's going to pick up speed to 200 mph and be over Bermuda tomorrow. I can do wishcasting as good as the next guy. :-)
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Have there ever been cases where a tropical wave or depression or storm has split into two storms? In which one or the other later became a cane? ex-Dorian appears now and has appeared a few times in the last 10 days to have two different COCs. Might explain why the NHC can't pinpoint the COC.
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Quoting 1130. guygee:
No hint of LLC NNE of the Bahamas, it's east of S.FL now.
That's the same region.
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1133. sar2401
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
91L has now stalled over the Gulf Stream, with the trough digging down from the north albeit slowly. It has maintained convection all day, although it has waned recently. The question now is, will the trough kick it out to sea, as the models say, or will it go west into Florida and then into the gulf, as some has mentioned?

Still amazing to see what happens to a weak system over those warm Gulf Stream waters, definitely wouldn't want a storm to traverse that area later this year when conditions become more conducive..:.

Every single dynamical model has it ENE and out to sea. As much as I'm not a firm believer in models, I'm not foolish enough to believe every single one of them is wrong. In terms of future storms, it's not going to be much different until the A-B moves north and the SAL dust starts to clear up. When that happens, it will start to be nail-biting time.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13514
Quoting 1126. sar2401:

Have a good flight. It will be a cat 5 by morning and mess up all the airline schedules, so bring a good book. :-)


I won't be going over it most likely, since my destination is in the mid-Atlantic.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
1131. beell
Quoting 1112. nrtiwlnvragn:


I think Cos was specifically referring to 91L about if it doesn't develop in 2 days it won't develop.


Well, that certainly make sense! Thanks.
Gotcha, Cos!
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1130. guygee
Quoting 1124. sar2401:

It will, but for the blob that forming to the NNE of the Bahamas, not what's around Florida now.
No hint of LLC NNE of the Bahamas, it's east of S.FL now.
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Quoting 1119. sar2401:

What? Seriously, that made absolutely no sense.
It makes alot of sense , go listen to the TWC! Hear for yourself , not making anything up!
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1128. vis0
TS 2013DORIAN q1 (quasi1) MIAMI FL NWS RADAR time stamp magnified. Of course  vist Wxu or NWS (at the moment) miami radar pg. for the latest.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.