Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1266. sar2401:

Just got back from walking the dog and it's still 79 in my Podunk town, far away from any heat islands. Humidity is also 88%, so it's a good free sauna bath out there.


Yes, but it's supposed to be a sauna all the time in Alabama in August! :)
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1277. sar2401
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


You are so often a plethora of knowledge sar! LOL

Not had a tv for about 6 or 7 years now, as the amount of rubbish over good shows, just wasn't worth the licence fee you need just to 'have' a tv! Even when we stay at a hotel, my daughter turns it off in about 5 minutes! Unless happen on a science prog at the time, but never happens, always tat on

I just happened to read about this a few days ago as part of an article about public-private partnerships and how well the Met Office has done, otherwise I wouldn't know a thing. According to this article, the Met Office in the early 80's was kind of a wreck, having fallen way behind on computing power and programmers. This consortium provided both, knowing the UK business would pay for better quality services than they were getting. Since then. The UK Met Office has expanded into many areas of private and custom forecasting and done quite well.

I never did get the whole thing with the tele licenses. It seemed a very cost intensive way to raise revenue, with all those vans that used to drive around and use radio direction finding to catch non-licensed culprits. They talked about just adding a tax to each TV at one time instead of the license scheme. Did that ever get done? Other than TWC and a few other history and science channels, there's very little to watch here that doesn't rot your brain. Well, sometimes TWC rots your brain too, just not as much as the Kardashians. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12743
1276. ncstorm
I cant tell but is the 00z GFS now taking ex Dorian into NC..seems to be another low already in NC but I cant tell if Dorian went out to sea or into NC?..the last thing we need is an ex tropical system coming our way after all the rain we had..(ex nicole 2010)



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Quoting 1257. Grothar:
They just took Punxsutawney Phil out of his burrow and he confirmed "Six more weeks of Dorian"



Man, I would like to give you more Likes but is only one per comment. The funniest comment so far this season. I shared it on my facebook page WeatherfanPR.
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First half of South Florida’s rainy season wettest since 1968

By Sonja Isger - Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

The first half of South Florida’s rainy season was the wettest since 1968, and it’s likely that the second half, which has begun with a lot of clouds and some showers from what’s left of Tropical Storm Dorian, will be soggier than usual as well.

Our neighbors to the south took the brunt of those storms, according to the National Weather Service’s reckoning of July’s weather issued Friday.

Across Miami-Dade and Broward counties storms in July unleashed up to 13 inches in a matter of days.

In Palm Beach County, those same systems dropped closer to 4 inches to 6 inches.

The rainy season began with some parking lot and street flooders in May, and July’s rainfall simply poured more onto that already saturated ground.

Across the South Florida Water Management District, which includes 16 counties from Central Florida, the Treasure Coast and south, rainfall averaged just over 10 inches — more than 3 inches above what is typical.

Those totals lead to the district’s announcement Friday that the region had topped the record for wettest first half of the rainy season set in 1968.

Note also: June was the wettest June since 2005 and July was the wettest July since 2001

The news may sound boast-worthy, but it has been the source of great concern for crops, the environment and the system tasked with ferrying the region’s water.

“South Florida is saturated, leaving very few places to move water was we work to keep the system prepared for the peak of hurricane season,” said Susan Sylvester, chief of SFWMD’s Water Control Operations Bureau, in a statement.

Many cities hit record rainfall in July, including Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach. Totals at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, however, hit 6 inches — or within a tenth of what is typical.

Palm Beach Gardens, where the weather service has a co-op site, recorded about 11 inches of rain – 5 inches above average. The co-op in Juno Beach recorded more than 12 inches of rain – 6 inches above normal.

Since mid-May Palm Beach International Airport has seen more than 28 inches of rain. Palm Beach Gardens got just under 26 inches. Juno topped them both with more than 35 inches.

“That’s definitely a lot of rain,” said Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Miami.

Credit a “rather persistent” wind out of the south-southeast that drove lots of moisture up from the tropics.

The only bit of good news is all that cloud cover did keep temperatures in the region below average in some spots – but not Palm Beach County.

The average temperature recorded at the airport was 83.3 degrees or about half a degree warmed than normal for July. The area saw 15 days of temperatures above 90 degrees, also typical.
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1273. Grothar
It is a good thing this stayed off the coast. Even though we got some good storms, I can't imagine an entire day of heavy rain.

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It would unfortunately appear that the ex dorian system once known as 91l and now dorian again is near tropical depression status. Sattilite imagery indicates a circulation in dmin and suffering from a partially constricted northwestern outflow due to shear, but an other wise growing in organization circulation on the surface and in the mid levels. Should the storm continue to organize, and fire new convection later tonight or tomorrow morning we should get a TD or a TS. Whether it would be named Dorian again I have no idea.


Fortunately the models are in good agreement as of now that the track will be out to sea as soon as the trough starts moving again in the next couple of days. In the mean time it will likely simply be a large rain generator for an already drenched Florida.


I personally wish the ULL had destroyed Dorian so that this nearly 4 week saga could have come to an end, but wishes sometimes don't come true after all.

In any case it will be interesting to see how the season really shapes up as we head towards August 15th and the beginning of the rush.
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1271. Grothar
Quoting 1255. sar2401:

As I understand it, there are several reasons the UK Met is not "free". The first is the Unified Model software used for the model was developed by consortium of companies, and the software is proprietary. The development costs were absorbed by the consortium and paid back by charging private business to use the output, which is far more than the UK Met tropical models. For example, the BBC was part of the consortium, and they have first rights to the output although, in practice, any severe weather outlook is shared freely. Some smaller governments in Europe like the Benelux countries, decided it was more cost effective to use the UK Met's models than to develop their own. The UK Met Office also has agreements with many countries in Africa to provide the model output for free. In the US, the University of Wyoming pays an annual fee to be the sole distributor of UK Met products in this country. Over the years, more sites have had access to some, but not all, of the UK Met's models at no cost. It wasn't a bad way for the UK, which was pretty strapped for cash back in the 80's, to develop some world class weather models and systems at very little cost to the British taxpayer. Of course, they'll still nail you to watch the tele. :-)



It's a good thing we have free TV here. My free TV only cost $186 this month.
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1270. beell
Quoting 1248. CosmicEvents:
It seems like it inevitably will lead to more orange and red on the map.....as the orange/red in day 3-5 encompasses both 40% and declining with time systems AND 0-40% and increasing with time storms.
.
.
.
I think.


I think they're still working on that one, lol.

NHC is currently developing a corresponding five-day genesis potential graphic that may become available later this season.
Link

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1269. sar2401
Quoting alabamaredneck:
Dateline September 19, 2013.... Granted, ex-Dorian has smashed all longevity records but I truely think this time he might TD and quickly accelerate along the east coast as a CAT 1. People need to stop complaining that we haven't had a hurricane this season yet. The season is still young. The real peak is early October. The SAL should die down by then and wind shear over the Atlantic should drop soon. It can't keep up like it has all summer. I think I see another wave coming off the Cape- this one will be big enough to fight off the dry air. The models show possible development in the Gulf this weekend. Wind shear is currently 40 mph but should die down to 39 by this weekend. ..

LOL. You have to wonder sometimes, when we get these pesky storms and nothing else happening. OTOH, it's these long periods of boredom that are usually broken by sheer terror. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12743
1268. geepy86
Quoting Grothar:
They just took Punxsutawney Phil out of his burrow and he confirmed "Six more weeks of Dorian"


Never trust a rodent
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15 hrs:

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1266. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Raging heat island tonight

81 downtown.

64 in Frederick, MD

Just got back from walking the dog and it's still 79 in my Podunk town, far away from any heat islands. Humidity is also 88%, so it's a good free sauna bath out there.
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Quoting 1258. GeoffreyWPB:


It looks like wave in East Atlantic has weakened a bit as there is less convection than in the past couple of days.
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9hrs:

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Dateline September 19, 2013.... Granted, ex-Dorian has smashed all longevity records but I truely think this time he might TD and quickly accelerate along the east coast as a CAT 1. People need to stop complaining that we haven't had a hurricane this season yet. The season is still young. The real peak is early October. The SAL should die down by then and wind shear over the Atlantic should drop soon. It can't keep up like it has all summer. I think I see another wave coming off the Cape- this one will be big enough to fight off the dry air. The models show possible development in the Gulf this weekend. Wind shear is currently 40 mph but should die down to 39 by this weekend. ..
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Quoting 1255. sar2401:

As I understand it, there are several reasons the UK Met is not "free". The first is the Unified Model software used for the model was developed by consortium of companies, and the software is proprietary. The development costs were absorbed by the consortium and paid back by charging private business to use the output, which is far more than the UK Met tropical models. For example, the BBC was part of the consortium, and they have first rights to the output although, in practice, any severe weather outlook is shared freely. Some smaller governments in Europe like the Benelux countries, decided it was more cost effective to use the UK Met's models than to develop their own. The UK Met Office also has agreements with many countries in Africa to provide the model output for free. In the US, the University of Wyoming pays an annual fee to be the sole distributor of UK Met products in this country. Over the years, more sites have had access to some, but not all, of the UK Met's models at no cost. It wasn't a bad way for the UK, which was pretty strapped for cash back in the 80's, to develop some world class weather models and systems at very little cost to the British taxpayer. Of course, they'll still nail you to watch the tele. :-)


You are so often a plethora of knowledge sar! LOL

Not had a tv for about 6 or 7 years now, as the amount of rubbish over good shows, just wasn't worth the licence fee you need just to 'have' a tv! Even when we stay at a hotel, my daughter turns it off in about 5 minutes! Unless happen on a science prog at the time, but never happens, always tat on
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1261. sar2401
Quoting Chicklit:

you gotta be kiddin me...
does anybody know when conditions are supposed to start getting favorable for development?
(generally speaking, not regarding 91L specifically)

Basically, when the A-B high retreats to the north or begins to weaken, the SAL layer goes away, and the western Atlantic begins to return to at leas normal SST's. Of course, I have no clue when all that will happen, but about the third week in August seems like as good a guess as any.

And, of course, Dorian is not about to be raised from the dead this time although...as it is pulled NNE, there is a very small chance it could reach TD status about 300 miles NNE of the Bahamas before it's absorbed by the trough and torn up. Depends on how technical the NHC wants to be about it. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12743
Raging heat island tonight

81 downtown.

64 in Frederick, MD
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1259. flsky
Local news tonight just said the winds in ECFL are beginning to go W to E instead of the opposite, as it's been all day. They're expecting more rain on FL's east coast tomorrow afternoon.
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1257. Grothar
They just took Punxsutawney Phil out of his burrow and he confirmed "Six more weeks of Dorian"

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00Z GFS int

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1255. sar2401
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


That's great to see a list of them all!
But have to say, I find it mind boggling the UKMET one. If any were so restricted and only by being a subscriber, a UK one is the last one I would think would be! I really do find it weird. Well, unless they were run by the BBC with all tv licence fee malarky...but even BBC America was just on cable even when I was last in the US 13 years ago, so they obvs aren't even 'that' harsh to non-UK LOL

As I understand it, there are several reasons the UK Met is not "free". The first is the Unified Model software used for the model was developed by consortium of companies, and the software is proprietary. The development costs were absorbed by the consortium and paid back by charging private business to use the output, which is far more than the UK Met tropical models. For example, the BBC was part of the consortium, and they have first rights to the output although, in practice, any severe weather outlook is shared freely. Some smaller governments in Europe like the Benelux countries, decided it was more cost effective to use the UK Met's models than to develop their own. The UK Met Office also has agreements with many countries in Africa to provide the model output for free. In the US, the University of Wyoming pays an annual fee to be the sole distributor of UK Met products in this country. Over the years, more sites have had access to some, but not all, of the UK Met's models at no cost. It wasn't a bad way for the UK, which was pretty strapped for cash back in the 80's, to develop some world class weather models and systems at very little cost to the British taxpayer. Of course, they'll still nail you to watch the tele. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12743
Quoting 1215. Patrap:


Hell of a storm between the South America and Africa
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Quoting 1251. ncstorm:
00z Suite




Right hook again, NS looks to be in the crosshairs.
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1251. ncstorm
00z Suite




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Dorian has been a fascinating system to track. As far as effects, we have had what we (Orlando area, well inland) usually get from these sloppy systems that hang out off the East Coast of FL. No wind, no rain, drier area and below normal rain chances.

It is WAY too early to tell, but it would not shock me if this season features more of the same as recent years. Many fairly weak sheared systems and mostly recurving Atlantic storms. That said, this luck will run out eventually so everybody should be prepared.
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Quoting 1227. Patrap:
Right on thel..

A self organizing system, fractal to the core, not unlike a Galaxy, or other self organizing system.

Awe is the right word.





It moves just to the east by a hair. I see a TS. It definitely has some rotation.
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Quoting 1236. moonlightcowboy:


Exactly. Here we are, nearly smack dab in the middle of season and we get new interpreting rules. ;). I didn't much attention to the way it was done before, and not likely too now either. My concern is how it will be received by the general public.
It seems like it inevitably will lead to more orange and red on the map.....as the orange/red in day 3-5 encompasses both 40% and declining with time systems AND 0-40% and increasing with time storms.
.
.
.
I think.
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1247. Patrap
The Pacific is a very LARGE pond one could say.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting 1238. Patrap:


Holy wave train batman! That's a locomotive for sure
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1245. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Have to say, does seem like we've had out fair share of odd, unpredictably behaved storms the last few years. Does make me wonder if the tropics are changing to more of these unpredictable shenanagans as the norm. Too soon to know really, but has been so peculiar. Part of me likes these wiley storms...but the uncertainty for those effected or possibly effected, is pretty darn lame.

Oh, and blow off to sea exDorian...had your chance, time to get your coat!
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1243. GFAqua
Local TV mets in Central Florida Wesh, 13, 6, have mentioned it as a possible TD soon..
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nothing to lose sleep over tonight.
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Quoting 1240. JLPR2:
Interesting, you can see the SSTs anomalies taking a number from the SAL outbreak but they already started bouncing back in the E-Atl.

That was quick!

The waters off the Northeast really cooled off.
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1240. JLPR2
Interesting, you can see the SSTs anomalies taking a number from the SAL outbreak but they already started bouncing back in the E-Atl.

That was quick!

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Quoting 1231. wunderkidcayman:

Most of it has weakened and a bit has cleared out W of the W coast of Africa

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1238. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting 1163. Patrap:
Hurricane Forecast Computer Models
By Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology


UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.

.


That's great to see a list of them all!
But have to say, I find it mind boggling the UKMET one. If any were so restricted and only by being a subscriber, a UK one is the last one I would think would be! I really do find it weird. Well, unless they were run by the BBC with all tv licence fee malarky...but even BBC America was just on cable even when I was last in the US 13 years ago, so they obvs aren't even 'that' harsh to non-UK LOL
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Quoting 1205. yankees440:



Supposedly according to the NHC, they are using it experimentally for this season.. Why start in the middle of the season? Dunno


Exactly. Here we are, nearly smack dab in the middle of season and we get new interpreting rules. ;). I didn't much attention to the way it was done before, and not likely too now either. My concern is how it will be received by the general public.
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Quoting 1224. thelmores:
Once again in awe of genesis...... believe we could have a brief window where this storm could get classified..... again!



I wonder if it's closed....
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1234. ncstorm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION INTERACTING WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM. THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOVING
OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK.
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Quoting 1218. Patrap:
Indeed 1900,

One can see the Core elongate toward the Neast in the WV loop easily.

It's outta here...promptly



And there he goes.
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news flash:

It is raining
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Quoting 1225. Chicklit:

Most of it has weakened and a bit has cleared out W of the W coast of Africa
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Quoting 1203. Patrap:
The WV latest frames show the impingement on the N and NE side from the Winds aloft, and maybe a slight nudge Ne shown in the convective burst near the coc.



It's a shame this buoy is out of service. It could have some information to tell us about ex-Dorian. Looking at the sat animation I see a guillotine of northerly shear and I don't think ex-Dorian will redevelop.
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Quoting 1220. ncstorm:
that is one big spin near texas..


Yup, and look at that bullet jet coming across the mid-west states at warp speed, too. ;)
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Quoting 1224. thelmores:
Once again in awe of genesis...... believe we could have a brief window where this storm could get classified..... again!


you gotta be kiddin me...
does anybody know when conditions are supposed to start getting favorable for development?
(generally speaking, not regarding 91L specifically)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.