Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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1328. Skyepony (Mod)
Cosmic~ That front has really flattened out.
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Ok interesting new TWO is out now High with 60%/60% with possible reinstate of advisorys as TS Dorian
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12140
I'm 95% certain but not 100% certain that the models have a good read here. The escape route to the NNE is closing off...the COL is flattening it's orientation from NE-SW more to a straight E-W like a classic T-top. The remnant or whatever-it-is is such a teeny feature...it seems like it could get left behind to meander and fester and meander and loop, etc.
.
I hope I'm wrong. loop below. It doesn't look like the overall SW Atlantic flow is shooting up that chimney..it's creeping as the flue closes.
Link
.
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1325. Skyepony (Mod)
There it is..ASCAT coastal 12.5km.. only a partial though.

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1324. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1323. whitewabit:


Almost closed ..

We might get a higher res pass in a few minutes. That's the coastal but 25km.
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1323. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1322. Skyepony:
ASCAT


Almost closed ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31530
1322. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT
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I can't really post it here because Allan Huffman's site doesn't allow hotlinking (to my knowledge), but the long-range GFS shows shear finally decreasing across the Caribbean, with the upper flow turning southeasterly to easterly; even in the medium range, it's showing this potential.

We shouldn't expect such a destructive TUTT blowing through the Caribbean during a neutral year anyway.
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Bad time for KRAX to be down...
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Quoting 1317. BaltimoreBrian:


I did say he was green in the Gil earlier ;)


That interpretation could work, although what I was really referring to was the currency used in the popular video game franchise 'Final Fantasy'. In those games, the name for money is Gil.

Yes, I'm a nerd.
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Convergence on the increase
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Quoting 1307. KoritheMan:
Gil has run out of Gil.

Props to anyone who gets that.


I did say he was green in the Gil earlier ;)
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1316. sar2401
Quoting 7544:


Quoting TropicNut:
Preasure 1015.0 and still falling in Broward County FL

Winds SE at 2mph

waiting to see what DMAX Dorian can do at 6am

looks like its goin to stall for awhile imo
the ? is could that front push her further south before sweeping to the ne with this system one never knows see what dmax brings


You're seriously going to hang around until DMax watching the blob? Oh, my, you really do need to get a life. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Quoting 1260. BaltimoreBrian:
Raging heat island tonight

81 downtown.

64 in Frederick, MD


This effect is so noticeable here during the cooler months. Downtown Orlando does not even freeze anymore most years while neighboring areas in all directions from downtown get well into the 20s. Here in the suburbs we are in-between the two extremes, temperature-wise. Right now, it is hot everywhere on the FL Peninsula. A little wind and rain would be welcomed by me.
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@RickNohl Rick Nohl
Quick thunderstorm passed through the area tonight. Lightning shot taken at lake Quannapowitt in Wakefield MA.
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1313. sar2401
Well, I can tell by the absence of certain bloggers better than any models or NHC percentages that Ex-Dorian has finally bitten the dust. :-) I think I'll go do something useful, like look at junk to buy on Amazon. I might check back later to see if Dorian has miraculously arisen from the dead yet again. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Here's Dorian looking like Mickey Mouse off the coast.
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1311. 7544
Quoting 1257. Grothar:
They just took Punxsutawney Phil out of his burrow and he confirmed "Six more weeks of Dorian"



Quoting TropicNut:
Preasure 1015.0 and still falling in Broward County FL

Winds SE at 2mph

waiting to see what DMAX Dorian can do at 6am

looks like its goin to stall for awhile imo
the ? is could that front push her further south before sweeping to the ne with this system one never knows see what dmax brings

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1310. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


@skewy11 Beth Bowdoin
Taken north of Haven, KS this evening. #kswx

Nothing like the Plains for really good lightning. We actually get really good lightning here in Alabama too, just so many trees you don't get that kind of view.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Quoting 1308. sar2401:

Seems to the theme for 2013 so far.


I was hoping global ACE would return to more normal levels, but so far it hasn't. The west Pacific in particular has been laughably dumb.
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1308. sar2401
Quoting AllStar17:
Gil really fizzled.

Seems to the theme for 2013 so far.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Gil has run out of Gil.

Props to anyone who gets that.
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1306. sar2401
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


When I was back in Palm Desert for a few years..didn't have cable, but picked up some sort of pyrate shopping channel that sold gemstones in bulk. Was awesome to watch as they had some amazing lots of gems...and main lady had such a southern drawl (when talking about a gem 'itsa biggun!' Sure gave me dreams of doing lapidary!

Since we went to digital, each analog channel has 15 digital subchannels, since the bandwidth is so much less on digital than analog. The FCC made a deal with the TV stations they could have 10 of the 15 channels for advertising shows as long as the other 5 were for public service. The changeover to digital was extremely costly to broadcasters, so it was the only way to work the deal. Used to be shopping channels were just on late night TV but now we get them 24 hours a day, selling everything from diamonds to divorces. The public service channels usually show some planning commission meeting over and over again....that's one reason I like the internet. :-)
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Gil really fizzled.
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1304. docrod
Quoting 1300. Grothar:


Yes, I know. I lived in Europe a good portion of my life, including England. Although most of the time we got the Armed Forces Radio and Television so I am familiar with all the old shows from the US.
I miss that old saying at the end of the programs

"This show was broadcast to our armed forces overseas"


You have a raw deal there.


nite - dunno about ex-Dorian ... lots of odds stacked against imho - nevertheless, will continue a massive tree trimming here in the Keys (converting a 40-50 ft tree to a 15 ft'r)
- later
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1303. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone Overland Vietnam


At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jebi (985 hPa) located at 21.3N 107.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 23.9N 102.9E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
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1302. Grothar
Good night for real. I just heard a little voice that said "Frasier" was on. Got to go. Always go to sleep with a smile on your face!!
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1301. sar2401
Quoting TropicNut:
Preasure 1015.0 and still falling in Broward County FL

Winds SE at 2mph

waiting to see what DMAX Dorian can do at 6am

Just make sure everything in the yard is tied down. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
1300. Grothar
Quoting 1295. mitthbevnuruodo:


I think the contentious issue, is you pay to have a tv, to watch BBC..but have to pay even if you have Sky and then by no means, probably even bother with watching BBC. To them, if you have a tv, you MUST be watching BBC, so have to pay even if you never watch it. And now that there's no analog signal, all digital, you get the freeview channels...the basic broadcasters plus some. None of which, get the BBC gov funding, and are totally commercial. Step in and get satellite to boot, you're paying a hefty price for it, between them


Yes, I know. I lived in Europe a good portion of my life, including England. Although most of the time we got the Armed Forces Radio and Television so I am familiar with all the old shows from the US.
I miss that old saying at the end of the programs

"This show was broadcast to our armed forces overseas"


You have a raw deal there.
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Quoting 1280. sar2401:

Arf! You can still get some rabbit ears and get free TV you know. You won't be getting anything but whacky religious programming and shows selling pots and pans, along with occasional news, weather, and sports, but it's free. :-) If I lived closer to you, I could get some of my ham buddies together, put up a big mast with a fancy antenna, and you could get even more worthless stuff for free, but from much further away.


When I was back in Palm Desert for a few years..didn't have cable, but picked up some sort of pyrate shopping channel that sold gemstones in bulk. Was awesome to watch as they had some amazing lots of gems...and main lady had such a southern drawl (when talking about a gem 'itsa biggun!' Sure gave me dreams of doing lapidary!
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1298. docrod
Quoting 1286. Grothar:


As long as I can watch "Dancing with the Stars" and "Real Housewives of New Jersery, I'll be fine. My, what has this country become?


Nite everyone. I expect ex-Dorian to still be with us tomorrow.


yer confusing me ... ;>)
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Preasure 1015.0 and still falling in Broward County FL

Winds SE at 2mph

waiting to see what DMAX Dorian can do at 6am
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1296. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm soon be sleeping too.

Wait..wait...don't you want to stay up with me and watch 91L until DMax? Really, this may be the big night...umm...no? Rats! Well, have a good night. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Quoting 1271. Grothar:



It's a good thing we have free TV here. My free TV only cost $186 this month.


I think the contentious issue, is you pay to have a tv, to watch BBC..but have to pay even if you have Sky and then by no means, probably even bother with watching BBC. To them, if you have a tv, you MUST be watching BBC, so have to pay even if you never watch it. And now that there's no analog signal, all digital, you get the freeview channels...the basic broadcasters plus some. None of which, get the BBC gov funding, and are totally commercial. Step in and get satellite to boot, you're paying a hefty price for it, between them
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Quoting 1293. AussieStorm:
.

so aussie is 91l not gona form?
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@skewy11 Beth Bowdoin
Taken north of Haven, KS this evening. #kswx
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1292. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


As long as I can watch "Dancing with the Stars" and "Real Housewives of New Jersery, I'll be fine. My, what has this country become?


Nite everyone. I expect ex-Dorian to still be with us tomorrow.

GN, Gro. Don't forget those "talent" shows too. I actually expect ex-Dorian to be a round also, and might even be a TD, just further away from land as it heads out into oblivion (I hope).
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Quoting 1257. Grothar:
They just took Punxsutawney Phil out of his burrow and he confirmed "Six more weeks of Dorian"



That made my night :)
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Can someone post the link to the model that shows the high that everyone talks about over Texas?I'd really appreciate it...TIA
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I'm soon be sleeping too.
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1288. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
It is a good thing this stayed off the coast. Even though we got some good storms, I can't imagine an entire day of heavy rain.


Quite true. I don't know how much closer you can get to a low and get so little rain. I guess one of the good things about tropical systems is they tend to be lopsided when it comes to rainfall, and the lopsidedness worked in your favor this time.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Quoting 1257. Grothar:
They just took Punxsutawney Phil out of his burrow and he confirmed "Six more weeks of Dorian"




ROTFL, yup, that's a good one, Gro! And, nearly true too.
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1286. Grothar
Quoting 1280. sar2401:

Arf! You can still get some rabbit ears and get free TV you know. You won't be getting anything but whacky religious programming and shows selling pots and pans, along with occasional news, weather, and sports, but it's free. :-) If I lived closer to you, I could get some of my ham buddies together, put up a big mast with a fancy antenna, and you could get even more worthless stuff for free, but from much further away.


As long as I can watch "Dancing with the Stars" and "Real Housewives of New Jersery, I'll be fine. My, what has this country become?


Nite everyone. I expect ex-Dorian to still be with us tomorrow.
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Quoting 1283. sar2401:

Well, yes, but, at 10:00 at night, you kinda hope it's a little better. The surprising thing this year is how few mosquitoes we have. There's standing water everywhere, and you'd think we'd be overrun with them. Maybe they all drowned.


That's great! Tadpoles may be your friend :)
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Looking a bit green in the Gil

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1283. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Yes, but it's supposed to be a sauna all the time in Alabama in August! :)

Well, yes, but, at 10:00 at night, you kinda hope it's a little better. The surprising thing this year is how few mosquitoes we have. There's standing water everywhere, and you'd think we'd be overrun with them. Maybe they all drowned.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
Quoting 1276. ncstorm:
I cant tell but is the 00z GFS now taking ex Dorian into NC..seems to be another low already in NC but I cant tell if Dorian went out to sea or into NC?..the last thing we need is an ex tropical system coming our way after all the rain we had..(ex nicole 2010)





You got that right. Most of the mid-atlantic including here in central VA is under a pretty substantial surplus so far this summer, and it is rare enough to have a surplus throughout the summer here, let alone have a 6" above average rainfall.
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1281. guygee
Station 41009 (LLNR 840) - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL
28.523 N 80.184 W (28°31'22" N 80°11'3" W
Conditions at 41009 as of
(10:50 pm EDT on 08/02/2013)
0250 GMT on 08/03/2013:


Winds very slowly veering ... pressures still high ... little if any development at this time.
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1280. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:



It's a good thing we have free TV here. My free TV only cost $186 this month.

Arf! You can still get some rabbit ears and get free TV you know. You won't be getting anything but whacky religious programming and shows selling pots and pans, along with occasional news, weather, and sports, but it's free. :-) If I lived closer to you, I could get some of my ham buddies together, put up a big mast with a fancy antenna, and you could get even more worthless stuff for free, but from much further away.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15973
1279. Grothar
Quoting 1258. GeoffreyWPB:


Did you get much up there today? We got blasted a few times. Some light show over the ocean.
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Quoting 1266. sar2401:

Just got back from walking the dog and it's still 79 in my Podunk town, far away from any heat islands. Humidity is also 88%, so it's a good free sauna bath out there.


Yes, but it's supposed to be a sauna all the time in Alabama in August! :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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