Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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SSD Moved the low back down to the NW tip of Grand Bahama
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If Dorian regenerates, it would be about 1,650 miles farther northwest than when the last advisory was declared. Talk about persistent.
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Storms in the core are increasing quite rapidly - quite a show on radar !
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I mean convection heads to the low and it would explain why my smoke was heading SW.

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Theoretically speaking, let's say XDorian puts on rapid intensification in the next 12 hours. Wouldn't he tend to follow Bam-d into west into Florida due to the steering at the 300-850 levels?
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Quoting 1369. yankees440:


If the High doesnt weaken much for the next couple months, not as much development in East Atlantic, but for those that do form, no recurviture. If the high weakens as forecast, water temps warm, ITCZ lifts north and we get more storms but more recurvitures. So basically we are screwed either way.


A northward-lifting high does not necessarily portend recurvature. That is determined more by large-scale jet stream patterns over the United States, which in turn alters the teleconnection patterns over the Atlantic any given point.

Unless the high is too far north, which it shouldn't be.
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Quoting 1370. CaicosRetiredSailor:




I choose XTRP.
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ODD winds here tonight in jupiter. Very light but wind was heading SW. Cigarette smoke doesn't lie.
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Quoting 1365. KoritheMan:


lol, I honestly wish people would stop asking this.

It's August 3. It's going to ramp up, just like it always does. And if the steering pattern doesn't change, US or not, someone is gonna be in a hell of a lot of trouble, probably more than once.

There are some indications in the models that the strong high may start to weaken a bit over the next two weeks, although of course, anything beyond one week is extremely speculative.

The GFS also shows shear easing in the Caribbean during that same timeframe, which is probably why it tries to develop a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea at longer ranges (10+ days). Chances are that particular scenario will not evolve in nearly the same way as the GFS suggests it will, but either way, conditions should be getting more favorable soon, as evidenced by the models.

It's literally not going to be this way all summer, though.


If the High doesnt weaken much for the next couple months, not as much development in East Atlantic, but for those that do form, no recurviture. If the high weakens as forecast, water temps warm, ITCZ lifts north and we get more storms but more recurvitures. So basically we are screwed either way.
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Quoting 1362. midgulfmom:
Thanks for covering for me Taco! :)

Just keeps getting better...Of course I meant CosmicEvents!!!! Slinking away now...
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Agree. Looks like it still has a LLC
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Quoting 1361. yankees440:
Off topic but if you'll gonna be up with this storm for a while, a good movie just started on TNT, Swordfish!
Now, back to X-soon to be Dorian


I'll be up, but it's not gonna be because of Dorian.
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Quoting 1355. Stormchaser121:

Hey Kori can you give some information about the reast of the season? Is it gonna ramp up or is it just not favorable.


lol, I honestly wish people would stop asking this.

It's August 3. It's going to ramp up, just like it always does. And if the steering pattern doesn't change, US or not, someone is gonna be in a hell of a lot of trouble, probably more than once.

There are some indications in the models that the strong high may start to weaken a bit over the next two weeks, although of course, anything beyond one week is extremely speculative.

The GFS also shows shear easing in the Caribbean during that same timeframe, which is probably why it tries to develop a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea at longer ranges (10+ days). Chances are that particular scenario will not evolve in nearly the same way as the GFS suggests it will, but either way, conditions should be getting more favorable soon, as evidenced by the models.

It's literally not going to be this way all summer, though.
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Due east of Melbourne.
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I don't know how to do loops either. Don't really like them when it's busy...slows down some computers....but it would be nice to post a loop when it's slower....if someone would tell me how.
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Thanks for covering for me Taco! :)
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Off topic but if you'll gonna be up with this storm for a while, a good movie just started on TNT, Swordfish!
Now, back to X-soon to be Dorian
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Building a core over the gulf stream on radar - and not moving at all.
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1359. vis0
CREDIT: UNYSIS The surface info is off by 15 mins. as to the Infrared, the blend is NOT A UNISYS product,
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YES! :) George Takei had posted a Sharkalanche poster that was pretty cool too! Feeling like Mr.Gray in the picture now....lol :p
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
It sure is not going anywhere quick right now......looks like getting tugged from both sides.
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I have problems doing loops. Pics are no problem.....Im pretty lame on here to
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Quoting 1339. KoritheMan:


Shouldn't take any more than about 24-36 hours.

Hey Kori can you give some information about the reast of the season? Is it gonna ramp up or is it just not favorable.
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A random swirl came out of the convection a little while ago. That's not the well-defined LLC though.

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Haha...teaching myself some humility...sorry...royally lame with computer...sorry no awesome movie poster. :(
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
midgulfmom....does this help?
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Greenie Meenie
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img src=" ">
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Oops! No image...face palm :( one more try...
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Quoting 1343. sar2401:

Yep, it's moving away from some shear and over some warm water, so it will become a TS again. As the TWO stated, it's really lopsided in terms of wind and rain, so it won't be a problem for people in Florida and Bahamas it moves NE away from them.


Thats good...I hear they had a lot of rain in Florida and more would only cause problems.....kinda was hoping that 91L would gets it's name back after all it's trials and tribulations and coming back from the death bed countless times from a myriad od issues....and then go out to sea......and finally RIP...lol
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SAR2401 ... double feature maybe with Sharknadocaniquake?
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1345. will40
18Z model runs will be interesting
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Quoting 1336. whitewabit:
He just won't give in .. has taught bloggers much ..
For a diminutive little storm that's been around for so long, dead or alive officially....it really has managed to teach us a lot. And I don't think there's been any casualties or even minor property damage. Let's hope that continues.
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1343. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good evening/morning overnight crew. Watched Padres beat Yankee's 7-2. I see Ex Dorian still on scene. Looked earlier like it was gonna get destroyed by shear...looks to have consolidated again?

Yep, it's moving away from some shear and over some warm water, so it will become a TS again. As the TWO stated, it's really lopsided in terms of wind and rain, so it won't be a problem for people in Florida and Bahamas it moves NE away from them.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16277
Quoting 1336. whitewabit:
He just won't give in .. has taught bloggers much ..

Hopefully some humility....JS
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Rain bands increasing in coverage making its way to Florida's Central coast

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I like Stewart and Avila the best.....maybe it's opposites attract...
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Quoting 1337. AztecCe:
When will Ex-Dorian be off NC's coast? I was planning on going to the beach on sunday. will I be safe?


Shouldn't take any more than about 24-36 hours.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
AND IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FURTHER
INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
. IF
THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR ANY PART THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

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1337. AztecCe
When will Ex-Dorian be off NC's coast? I was planning on going to the beach on sunday. will I be safe?
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1336. whitewabit (Mod)
He just won't give in .. has taught bloggers much ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31739
It is interesting out there tonight... living here on the coast of central Florida. Being that 91L is centered to my E by about 75 miles, it is really neat to watch the lightning show happening just offshore over the Gulf Stream. Winds here are light varying between N and NW. No rain. Just calm.

I can recall when Ophelia formed in 2005, it became a hurricane just off the coast (almost exactly where 91L is now) of Florida. We had erosion from the high surf. And we had some rain... but even being a hurricane relatively close to shore, wind was not an issue. Should 91L develop further, it will be a non-issue for Florida.

So, now it is time to just sit back and relax and enjoy natures light show from my own front porch! But we still must be prepared anyways, because we don't know whether this season will be kind to us or kick us in the rear.
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1334. will40
Stewart bumped him up
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
AND IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FURTHER
INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF
THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR ANY PART THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART
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1332. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok interesting new TWO is out now High with 60%/60% with possible reinstate of advisorys as TS Dorian

Oh, no...it's back again! As I was saying earlier, it has a window to get to TS status for maybe 12 hours as it moves NNE away from the Bahamas. I would expect a TS by 8:00 and then have it killed off by this time tomorrow. In the meantime, the true believers will have one more day to see if Dorian can go left or backwards and finally flatten something. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16277
Good evening/morning overnight crew. Watched Padres beat Yankee's 7-2. I see Ex Dorian still on scene. Looked earlier like it was gonna get destroyed by shear...looks to have consolidated again?
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
AND IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FURTHER
INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF
THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR ANY PART THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

&&

And of course it's Stewart who wrote this
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12375
Quoting 1326. CosmicEvents:
I'm 95% certain but not 100% certain that the models have a good read here. The escape route to the NNE is closing off...the COL is flattening it's orientation from NE-SW more to a straight E-W like a classic T-top. The remnant or whatever-it-is is such a teeny feature...it seems like it could get left behind to meander and fester and meander and loop, etc.
.
I hope I'm wrong. loop below.
Link
.


Zonal flow is developing over the southeastern United States as the initial shortwave departs. A secondary upper low is seen over Quebec moving southeastward; I presume it is this vortex that the models see reinforcing the weakness and allowing Dorian to curve out to sea.

In the meantime however, there is clearly no troughing in the immediate vicinity of the system, so a track much closer to (if not over) the North Carolina coast is certainly possible.
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1328. Skyepony (Mod)
Cosmic~ That front has really flattened out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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