Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

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After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

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1828. hydrus
Quoting 1827. aislinnpaps:


Well, if you do, hydrus, I'll cook it special so you think you're eating a steak!
Thank you..:)
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Quoting 1748. hydrus:
I may have to eat half a crow...Dunno yet..:)


Well, if you do, hydrus, I'll cook it special so you think you're eating a steak!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
August 3, 2013 8:04 AM

Unprecedented July Cold – Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record

http://iceagenow.info/2013/08/unprecedented-july- cold-arctic-sees-shortest-summer-record/

“Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that,” says Steven Goddard website.

Graph courtesy of COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Thanks to F. Guimaraes for this link

“The Arctic ice extent is showing a remarkable recovery from the great oscillations of 2012,” says Guimaraes. “Compare with the previous years listed there, you’ll see that 2004 is the year that is closest to 2013 in terms of average temps during the summer.”

Like I say all weather is cyclical, again I'm going to stand by my old TV weather guy! he said you know Mother nature always evens things out.
Last year, Extreme heat no rain!
This year, cool temps and plenty of rain!
Sounds like evening things out to me!
The thing that worries me about Global warming folks is Government taking over control of our lives all in the name of Climate Change!
Besides that, I don't subscribe to any of it.
Weather changes, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, decades, and centuries, always has, always will!!!!!!
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Quoting 1819. CitikatzSouthFL:


Love, love, love this idea. +1,000! Since it is your idea, you are in charge for next season! LOL


Deal!
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1824. Skyepony (Mod)
Nuclear Event in USA on Saturday, 03 August, 2013 at 15:28 (03:28 PM) UTC.
Description
A carbon dioxide leak prompted an Alabama nuclear plant to declare an alert, though federal authorities say the issue does not threaten the public. Southern Co. spokesman Ike Pigott said a carbon dioxide release was detected in an auxiliary building of the Unit 1 reactor at Plant Farley around 5:20 a.m. Saturday. An initial investigation suggests that the gas came from a fire suppression system, though no fires were detected. Pigott said the volume of gas was equivalent to what might be released from a large fire extinguisher. Both reactors continued operating normally. No other equipment failures were reported. No radiation was released. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman Roger Hannah said federal inspectors were monitoring the incident, but they do not believe it poses any threat to the public.

The Dothan/Houston County Emergency Management Agency, the Alabama Emergency Management Agency were advised that an incident classified as an “ALERT” has been declared at the Joseph M. Farley Nuclear Power Plant. An alert is the second least serious of four nuclear plant emergency classifications assigned by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This means that certain events could degrade or have degraded the level of safety at the power facility. There has been no radiation release so NO protective actions are required at this time for the public’s health and safety. Houston County officials and Alabama Emergency Management Agency will keep the public informed of any changes or developments in the situation at Plant Farley. Protective actions will be recommended if they become necessary.

Quoting 1806. MisterPerfect:
they already have fantasy football and baseball. we should form a fantasy hurricane league. sort of like an office pool that starts at the beginning of the season. pick 5 names on the list and there's your starting rotation. points allocated for wind speed, rainfall measures and length of life.

I keep trying to to talk them into allowing donate buttons or something so we could atleast wager freely amongst ourselves. They don't really seem amused or excited about the idea..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37461
1823. Patrap
Quoting 1814. moonlightcowboy:
Very cool. 2,000 yr old cyprus forest found in over 60 feet of water off the coast of Alabama - apparently uncovered by Katrina.



When I met Ivor Van Heerden in Nov 2009 here MLC, he said during his 17th Canal Levee investigation, that the Piles for the I-walls were drivrn down to the 24 ft Level under the surface, right on top of a Peat cypress bog that was laid down by a storm likely larger than K, 450 years ago approx.

So in theory, the piles slipped from the surface pressures fro the surge, due to the piles being exactly where the slip zone was.



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1822. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
ITS THIS NEW!! what up with the O
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Quoting 1812. Grothar:


Yep, it's cheeching and chonging its way.


LOL!
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 663
Quoting 1806. MisterPerfect:
they already have fantasy football and baseball. we should form a fantasy hurricane league. sort of like an office pool that starts at the beginning of the season. pick 5 names on the list and there's your starting rotation. points allocated for wind speed, rainfall measures and length of life.


Love, love, love this idea. +1,000! Since it is your idea, you are in charge for next season! LOL
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1818. Patrap
WFO Southern

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1817. wxmod
This is the MODIS satellite photo of the exact North Pole today. 1 pixel equals 1 KM.

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Quoting 1804. hydrus:
It was CMC. I am tired, not much sleep.


00Z GEM does bring a system from the islands at 132 hours:



Link

To the GOM at 240 hours:



Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10933
we have a new tropical D
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Very cool. 2,000 yr old cyprus forest found in over 60 feet of water off the coast of Alabama - apparently uncovered by Katrina.

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1813. Patrap
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1812. Grothar
Quoting 1808. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning Class. Something still hanging around?


Yep, it's cheeching and chonging its way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25517
1811. Grothar
Quoting 1777. redwagon:


Are there any models for this prairiecane? Which way is it goin?


By the looks of it, it should die out pretty soon.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25517
You even take its circulations away and it still lives......somebody get me a silver bullet!
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Good Morning Class. Something still hanging around?
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Atlantic slowly getting moister expect for the Central where SAL is. The monsoonal trough over SA is trying to push north moistening up the Caribbean a little but SAL is present over the Eastern Carib. may not last too long.



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they already have fantasy football and baseball. we should form a fantasy hurricane league. sort of like an office pool that starts at the beginning of the season. pick 5 names on the list and there's your starting rotation. points allocated for wind speed, rainfall measures and length of life.
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2 hour animated loop. Headed East-Northeast!

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1804. hydrus
Quoting 1794. nrtiwlnvragn:


That is the GEM (CMC). Think also that is a glitch, not showing up from other sites:


It was CMC. I am tired, not much sleep.
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It's starting to rumble in Port Saint Lucie now. Very little rain though.
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1802. llpj04
:)

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1801. hydrus
Quoting 1771. washingtonian115:
I said a few days "IF" Dorian ever does come back it will be a highly sheared weak system.So I'm not eating crow.

If Disney get's a hold of it that'll be a lot of censoring they have to do or else we'll have mad parents coming from all over the U.S to D.C to march.lol.
It would put a lot more material within there reach..

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TD Dorian is a joke at the moment with the COC well NNE of the thunderstorm complex it will continue to head NE as it get scoop up by the trough. However the MLC and convection is still stuck between and Melbourne, FL and the NW Bahamas. Its not unlikely for the LLC to move out to sea and shed its moisture field behind and it drifts over Florida and dump some rain before dissipating. We shall see. Personally the NHC should have never classified it but they are the experts. What do a WU blogger like me know :)
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1799. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1792. DocMurphy:


So, what are you thinking about that MLC near the northern tip of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection?


Chance that is going to rain on the afternoon pool party..

It could hang back & play on the tail of the front. Dorian is really drawing at it the last few frames too..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37461
Dorian left his luggage on the plane heading west.
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1797. 7544
morning all i know dorian swirl is movin nne but is tha big blob close to the coast digging ssw . looks like it building around the south side ?
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1796. Patrap
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...em...probably a bad idea. Mornin'
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Quoting 1739. hydrus:
This is interesting. The GFS has a system in the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours but it dissipates. Then later has a system crossing the entire basin into the gulf where it strengthens.



That is the GEM (CMC). Think also that is a glitch, not showing up from other sites:


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10933
1793. Skyepony (Mod)
Dvorak is availablee for Dorian again.. In six hrs the pressure went from 1011.3mb to 1004mb. The scene keeps going between curved band & shear..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37461
Quoting 1785. Skyepony:
Tropical Depression Dorian is the naked swirl..

click pic for loop


So, what are you thinking about that MLC near the northern tip of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection?
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51


That outbreak is starting to decline. The east of 50W the SAL is sporadic and thinning out. This process should continue throught next week and by mid-late week most of SAL will diminish. Places to what for genesis in the next week is the Gulf/Western Caribbean and the MDR.
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1790. sar2401
Quoting DocMurphy:
Failure to acknowledge the potential of a blob is tantamount to disrespecting the Rabbit of Caerbannog. It may appear harmless....

"A rabbit....a silly rabbit....Arrrggh....:-)
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Quoting 1670. AussieStorm:


Land-o-cane


Why not call it a Terracane?
Terra means land so it would be fitting and it roles off the tongue nice.
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1788. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.

Morning, Gro. I don't think I did too bad on 91l/Dorian in terms of its later life but I agree, this is just what too weird of a storm to hold anyone's feet to the fire over.
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1787. Thrawst
/
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1786. Patrap
Morn',, Hot tea, not down yet,

Grumbles'
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1785. Skyepony (Mod)
Tropical Depression Dorian is the naked swirl..

click pic for loop
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37461
Where y'at, Pat. Good morning.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
1782. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1778. SNOWARMER:
So, which is it, anyways ? Ex-tropical storm DORIAN, or 91 ? Why am I seeing two storms ?


Tropical Depression Dorian..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37461
1781. Patrap
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1780. Patrap
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Failure to acknowledge the potential of a blob is tantamount to disrespecting the Rabbit of Caerbannog. It may appear harmless....
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
So, which is it, anyways ? Ex-tropical storm DORIAN, or 91 ? Why am I seeing two storms ?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.