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Massive African Dust Storm Cooling Atlantic Hurricane Odds for Early August

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on July 31, 2013

A massive dust storm that formed over the Sahara Desert early this week has now pushed out over the tropical Atlantic, and will sharply reduce the odds of tropical storm formation during the first week of August. The dust is accompanied by a large amount of dry air, which is making the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) much drier than usual this week. June and July are the peak months for dust storms in the Southwest Sahara, and this week's dust storm is a typical one for this time of year. Due in large part to all the dry and dusty air predicted to dominate the tropical Atlantic over the next seven days, none of the reliable computer models is predicting Atlantic tropical cyclone formation during the first week of August.


Figure 1. A massive dust storm moves off the coast of Africa in this MODIS image taken at 1:40 UTC July 30, 2013. Image credit: NASA.


Video 1. The predicted movement through August 3 of this week's Africam dust storm, using the NOAA NGAC aerosol model. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

How dust affects hurricanes
Saharan dust can affect hurricane activity in several ways:

1) Dust acts as a shield which keeps sunlight from reaching the surface. Thus, large amounts of dust can keep the sea surface temperatures up to 1°C cooler than average in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean, providing hurricanes with less energy to form and grow. Ocean temperatures in the MDR are currently 0.7°F above average, and this anomaly should cool this week as the dust blocks sunlight.

2) The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic. At the boundary between the SAL and low-level moist air where the trade winds blow is the trade wind inversion--a region of the atmosphere where the temperature increases with height. Since atmospheric temperature normally decreases with height, this "inversion" acts to but the brakes on any thunderstorms that try to punch through it. This happens because the air in a thunderstorm's updraft suddenly encounters a region where the updraft air is cooler and less buoyant than the surrounding air, and thus will not be able to keep moving upward. The dust in the SAL absorbs solar radiation, which heats the air in the trade wind inversion. This makes the inversion stronger, which inhibits the thunderstorms that power a hurricane.

3) Dust may also act to produce more clouds, but this effect needs much more study. If the dust particles are of the right size to serve as "condensation nuclei"--centers around which raindrops can form and grow--the dust can act to make more clouds. Thus, dust could potentially aid in the formation and intensification of hurricanes. However, if the dust acts to make more low-level clouds over the tropical Atlantic, this will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean, cooling the sea surface temperatures and discouraging hurricane formation (Kaufman et al., 2005.)


Figure 2. Map of the mean summer dust optical thickness derived from satellite measurements between 1979 and 2000. Maximum dust amounts originate in the northern Sahel (15° to 18° N) and the Sahara (18° to 22° N). The Bodele depression in Chad is also an active dust source. Image credit: Evidence of the control of summer atmospheric transport of African dust over the Atlantic by Sahel sources from TOMS satellites (1979-2000), by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello, published in January 2004 in Geophysical Research Letters.

Dust in Africa's Sahel region and Atlantic hurricane activity
The summertime dust that affects Atlantic tropical storms originates over the southwestern Sahara (18° - 22° N) and the northwestern Sahel (15° - 18° N) (Figure 3.) The dust from the Southwest Sahara stays relatively constant from year to year, but the dust from the Northwest Sahel varies significantly, so understanding this variation may be a key factor in improving our forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The amount of dust that gets transported over the Atlantic depends on a mix of three main factors: the large scale and local scale weather patterns (windy weather transports more dust), how wet the current rainy season is (wet weather will wash out dust before it gets transported over the Atlantic), and how dry and drought-damaged the soil is. The level of drought experienced in the northwestern Sahel during the previous year is the key factor of the three in determining how much dust gets transported over the Atlantic during hurricane season, according to a January 2004 study published in Geophysical Research Letters published by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello. In 2012 (Figure 3), precipitation across the northwestern Sahel was much above average, which should result in less dust than usual over the Atlantic this fall, increasing the odds of a busy 2013 hurricane season.


Figure 3. Rainfall over the Northwest Sahel region of Africa was about 200% of average during the 2012 rainy season. The heavy rains promoted vigorous vegetation growth in 2013, resulting in less bare ground capable of generating dust. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

The future of African dust: highly uncertain
A September 2013 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Joseph Prospero and Olga Mayol-Bracero, "Understanding the Transport and Impact of African Dust on the Caribbean Basin," discusses the large uncertainties on how African dust may change due to climate change. Over the past decade, there has been no clear relationship between African dust and climate indices such as rainfall in the Sahel or the El Niño/La Niña cycle, which "makes it difficult to predict how dust emissions and transport might change over the coming decades as climate changes. The problem is exacerbated by the inability of models (IPCC 2007) to agree on future rainfall trends over large areas of North Africa (including the Sahel) that are known to be major dust sources today and in the recent past."

Links
Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin

Atlantic dust forecast from the Tel-Aviv University Weather Research Center

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was first described in 1972, in this classic paper: Carlson, T. N., and J. M. Prospero (1972), The Large-Scale Movement of Saharan Air Outbreaks over the Northern Equatorial Atlantic, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 11(2), 283-297

Dr. Amato Evan published a study in Science magazine March 2009 showing that 69% of the increase in Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past 26 years could be attributed to decreases in the amount of dust in the atmosphere.

Kaufman, Y. J., I. Koren, L. A. Remer, D. Rosenfeld, and Y. Rudich, 2005a: The effect of smoke, dust, and pollution aerosol on shallow cloud development over the Atlantic Ocean. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 11 207–11 212.

Wang, Chunzai, Shenfu Dong, Amato T. Evan, Gregory R. Foltz, Sang-Ki Lee, 2012, Multidecadal Covariability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature, African Dust, Sahel Rainfall, and Atlantic Hurricanes, J. Climate, 25, 5404–5415.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00413.1

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 874. mitchelace5:


What the heck is that over West Africa?


#Sharknado
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8516
Quoting 870. Gearsts:


What the heck is that over West Africa?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
873. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (T1309)
9:00 AM JST August 1 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jebi (994 hPa) located at 15.6N 113.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
250 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 111.8E - 50 knots (Cat 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.1N 108.3E - 45 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf Of Tonkin
72 HRS: 21.9N 104.4E - Tropical Depression Overland northeastern Vietnam
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Quoting 840. KoritheMan:


It means development becomes more likely in the MDR. A weaker and more northerly displaced high does not necessarily portend recurvature, especially if the systems in question have a low latitude start.


True, but with the possibility of the ITCZ moving northward later on, wouldn't that mean recurvatures this year? Or would the ITCZ just expand northward?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 865. Hurricane1956:
Now I believe that looking at the Satellite presentation of the disturbed weather or Ex-Dorian over the Bahamas we can said now with great certainty!!! that the system is finally dead!!!.


I've been convinced of that for four days.
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00z SHIPS taking Gil up to 82kts, almost 95mph.
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My name would never appear Allan is to close to Allen to be a replacement and Jeff maybe but I doubt it.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4601
00z Best Track for 90E.

EP, 90, 2013080100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1130W, 25, 1009, LO
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Quoting 864. KoritheMan:


From the TCR:

"The tropical wave that spawned Fay emerged off the African coast on 6 August 2008".

Close. :P
I was thinking about editing but I was to lazy xD.

Here's another pic.This one is of Fay.Gee she sure fooled me.If Florida didn't exist I'm sure she would be a hurricane in the history text books.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 20746
Now I believe that looking at the Satellite presentation of the disturbed weather or Ex-Dorian over the Bahamas we can said now with great certainty!!! that the system is finally dead!!!.
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Quoting 862. washingtonian115:
Not even 2005 to be honest.2008 spoiled people because we already had our first major hurricane Dolly made landfall in Texas as a cat two and after Bertha the activity didn't stop until after Paloma.We had some impressive storms that year.If this were 2008 we would probably be tracking the wave that would be over africa right now that would later on become Fay.


From the TCR:

"The tropical wave that spawned Fay emerged off the African coast on 6 August 2008".

Close. :P
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Winds up to 70kts/80mph.

EP, 07, 2013080100, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1212W, 70, 990, HU
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Quoting 856. SLU:


Great post.

Every year we keep getting these bloggers who call the season a bust because of dry air and SAL in July which are totally normal. The legacy of 2005 has spoilt what a true hurricane season should be like in the minds of many. I wish 2005 never happened at times like this. We don't need 2 major hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean in July for the season to be active.
Not even 2005 to be honest.2008 spoiled people because we already had our first major hurricane Dolly made landfall in Texas as a cat two and after Bertha the activity didn't stop until after Paloma.We had some impressive storms that year.If this were 2008 we would probably be tracking the wave that would be over africa right now that would later on become Fay.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 20746
Quoting 859. aislinnpaps:


It really depends on your ancestry. I've some American Indian in me and I've only burned twice in my life. I turn a copperish color. But I'm also mostly Irish and married an Irish man. All my kids take after the Irish side and burn. My aide at school is black and puts on the sun lotion even when I don't. What color you tan is more your genetics than what your skin color or outward nationality is.


Edit: LOL, even when trying to explain I came back to, heck, what's the word I'm looking for... But not all Irish burn, etc., etc,. etc..
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Here's a picture of a shelf cloud I captured around 7pm.

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Quoting 854. WalkingInTheSun:


No offense intended, but thinking of your comment & the sun, then about suntans, sunburns, etc.,....what color do Chinese people turn when they tan or burn? White people get tan then red. Hispanics get very brown it seems - from what I've seen, and blacks CAN get burned I've heard, and not sure quite how all their skintone might affect that aspect although the way dark colors seems to absorb heat, I suppose it can be very uncomfortable to say the least. This is a weather matter, and it affects people just like global warming affects people, only on a smaller scale. Just wondering. Btw, I once had a Chinese room-mate at college but never saw him sunburned or tanned, as he didn't seem to get out in the sun much.


It really depends on your ancestry. I've some American Indian in me and I've only burned twice in my life. I turn a copperish color. But I'm also mostly Irish and married an Irish man. All my kids take after the Irish side and burn. My aide at school is black and puts on the sun lotion even when I don't. What color you tan is more your genetics than what your skin color or outward nationality is.
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Not sure we'll see something like this this hurricane season.Interesting non the less.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 20746
Quoting 834. VR46L:


Are you serious???? everyone was a newbie at some stage , Any lurker would be put off joining with attitude that everyone who joins is a troll...


Quite serious. Say there's an actual hurricane, and thousands of people come here to get guidance from the forum [after checking with their local NWS, of course].

Would they be better served reading reasoned and seasoned analysis by WUveterans, or pages and pages of post-count-bumping trolls and their noob cohorts?

If it was a slow day, no named storms, and your tolerance permitted, you could change your joined-date filter to zero and watch the zoo.

A date-join filter would take the zoo out of WU when it matters.
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856. SLU
Quoting 845. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a quick table documenting the formation date and intensity of the 5th named storm for every Atlantic hurricane season since the AMO flipped to its positive phase in 1995. Years (left) shaded in light orange are ones that ended with an overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value above 150 units. Years that are in bold indicate seasons that surpassed the 1981–2010 average of 12 named storms. With the exception of 1997 and 2009, both of which featured moderate to strong El Ninos, every season ended with at least 12 named storms, many with many more. The season isn't over by a long shot.



Great post.

Every year we keep getting these bloggers who call the season a bust because of dry air and SAL in July which are totally normal. The legacy of 2005 has spoilt what a true hurricane season should be like in the minds of many. I wish 2005 never happened at times like this. We don't need 2 major hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean in July for the season to be active.
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If were talking about named storms and our names, my middle is dean. I can't remember what year but, i think it may have caused a few headaches.
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Quoting 849. Patrap:
Incredible Heat Wave in China, Greenland Record
Posted by: Christopher C. Burt, 4:17 PM CDT on July 31, 2013




The heat wave has been a boon to China%u2019s beach resorts, as can bee seen in this photo above taken in Dalian on July 21st. Photo from Global News.

Keep in mind that the July climate for this region would be similar to that of the Washington D.C. area except more humid, since the Yellow Sea has very high SST%u2019s during the summer. Normally, typhoons would be making occasional landfalls along the central coast this time of year and bring relief to the brutal heat. That has not been the case this summer and, along with the heat, drought conditions have developed.

The heat is continuing unabated and, in fact, is predicted to intensify and spread north and west this coming week.

BREAKING NEWS: Greenland has just measured its hottest temperature on record July 30th with a reading of 25.9C (78.6F) at Maniitoq Mittarfia during a foehn event. The previous Greenland record was 25.5C (77.9F) at Kangerlussuaq on July 27, 1990.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian


No offense intended, but thinking of your comment & the sun, then about suntans, sunburns, etc.,....what color do Chinese people turn when they tan or burn? White people get tan then red. Hispanics get very brown it seems - from what I've seen, and blacks CAN get burned I've heard, and not sure quite how all their skintone might affect that aspect although the way dark colors seems to absorb heat, I suppose it can be very uncomfortable to say the least. This is a weather matter, and it affects people just like global warming affects people, only on a smaller scale. Just wondering. Btw, I once had a Chinese room-mate at college but never saw him sunburned or tanned, as he didn't seem to get out in the sun much.
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Quoting 836. JLPR2:


The best I'll ever get was Luis in 1995, that is my second name, first name will never appear in the list, the Church would scream at the top of their lungs if it did. XD



Jesus Luis!

Mine's not been used in ATL or EPAC (Beverly) But Erin is my middle name, so will see what the ATL brings up for that next :P
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Quoting 850. AussieStorm:


Whoa, that's really cool. Sharing on my facebook for sure.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8516
SAL outbreak is normal for Early August. Everyone saw that coming. But unlike earlier in the season where it sat over one place and didn't move they tend to break down easier as they increase in coverage they thin out a bit. Not to mention the ITCZ and AEWs that moisten up the path for developing ones. Even JM think it will last for the first week of August.But the SAL is a complete inhibitor while that runs its course trade winds will slackening up and falling pressures over the tropics as the High retreats over to the Azores but will still be strong enough to prevent storm to recurve out to sea like previous years. Also the TUTT is expected to weaken and lift north. SST will warm over the Caribbean/Gulf/SW Atlantic. The MDR will be slow to warm though as the dry air will filter sunlight and allowing for too much of an increase in surface temps. Overall the Atlantic will undergo majors changes in the next few days as upward motion returns to our basin. Hope everyone can get some rest over the next few days and be mentally, physically, and even emotionally prepared for long nights, bickering, wishcaster/downcasters, trolls the whole package :)
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
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Incredible Heat Wave in China, Greenland Record
Posted by: Christopher C. Burt, 4:17 PM CDT on July 31, 2013




The heat wave has been a boon to China’s beach resorts, as can bee seen in this photo above taken in Dalian on July 21st. Photo from Global News.

Keep in mind that the July climate for this region would be similar to that of the Washington D.C. area except more humid, since the Yellow Sea has very high SST’s during the summer. Normally, typhoons would be making occasional landfalls along the central coast this time of year and bring relief to the brutal heat. That has not been the case this summer and, along with the heat, drought conditions have developed.

The heat is continuing unabated and, in fact, is predicted to intensify and spread north and west this coming week.

BREAKING NEWS: Greenland has just measured its hottest temperature on record July 30th with a reading of 25.9°C (78.6°F) at Maniitoq Mittarfia during a foehn event. The previous Greenland record was 25.5°C (77.9°F) at Kangerlussuaq on July 27, 1990.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137215
Quoting 713. sar2401:

So what used to happen in the 'Glades when it rained a lot? I'm sure this isn't some kind of all-time record. Was it able to drain itself better in the past or what?



It was a different environment than today. The system as a whole had a much higher water table. Okeechobee Lake was at 22 feet above sea level in its natural state. It flowed through a pond apple slough on the southeast side through a gap about 15 miles wide, then spread out into the Florida Everglades. First they cut a canal from Okeechobee Lake to Lake Hicpochi, headwaters of the Caloosahatchee River. This dropped Okeechobee Lake some 8 1/2 feet. Observation Island was an island, and Torrey Kramer and Ritta Islands were sawgrass shallows. Next, they dynamited the rapids at the head of the Miami River and dropped the water level in the Everglades 3 feet. Subsequent water mis-managment has lowered the actual water level to even less now. The Cape Sable Sea Sparrow never in all of history nested where they are now because it was always flooded. It was only after we starved the glades for water that those birds arrived in their current nesting rookeries.

So, the Everglades really were the river of grass before ditch, dike, drain and trains changed everything. There were hammocks, and tree islands that held some deer and panther but overall, with the higher water table, there were fewer deer, hogs and such than now. There WERE more panthers then than now. It was a large flat body of water that moved very slowly down the Shark River slough and out to sea.

I seriously doubt we have more more water on the land today than ever. I have first hand accounts from the 1880's of Biscayne Bay being fresh water for months, and the ocean brown from fresh water as far as could be seen for days from the Biscayne House of Refuge at today's 72nd street on Miami Beach. There was enough fresh water to push the gulfstream around.

Okeechobee Lake 1876 Camplife in Florida Fred Beverly

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Why do people think we won't have anything to watch for so long? What if that little swirly over the Bahamas passes West & sucks up that moisture in the SE USA and Cuba? Wouldn't that make for some possible action? What do the UL winds look like on that scenario? It look sinteresting on the water-vapor loop.
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Quoting mitchelace5:
Well, it looks like the rest of this season will have 0 storms based on the dry air outbreak.


Quoting mitchelace5:


I know right? SAL outbreaks like this one are typical for this time of year.


hmmmmmm
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I made a quick table documenting the formation date and intensity of the 5th named storm for every Atlantic hurricane season since the AMO flipped to its positive phase in 1995. Years (left) shaded in light orange are ones that ended with an overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value above 150 units. Years that are in bold indicate seasons that surpassed the 1981%u20132010 average of 12 named storms. With the exception of 1997 and 2009, both of which featured moderate to strong El Ninos, every season ended with at least 12 named storms, many with many more. The season isn't over by a long shot.

EDIT - I made a mistake while creating this table. The year 2006 should not be bolded.

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Can you have a favorable MJO and lots of stable dry SAL in the MDR at the same time?
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842. JLPR2
Quoting 838. mitchelace5:


Does that mean African systems turning OTS?


Would make the development of tropical systems more likely, though it's not a guarantee.
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Whats up tomorrow we will have the new 5 day outlook I'm very curious to see how they are going to do this. Image a Tropical wave over African with a circle over it. In anycase I'm going to be the first to post it. :)


From the NHC:
BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE 8 AM EDT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BEGIN INCLUDING INFORMATION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE FOLLOWING FIVE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED PROBABILISTICALLY IN 10-PERCENT INCREMENTS...AND WILL SUPPLEMENT THE 48-HOUR PROBABILISTIC FORMATION POTENTIAL ALREADY PROVIDED. THE CURRENT GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT SHOWS THE 48-HOUR GENESIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. NHC IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING A FIVE-DAY GENESIS POTENTIAL GRAPHIC THAT MAY BECOME AVAILABLE LATER IN THE SEASON.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 838. mitchelace5:


Does that mean African systems turning OTS?


It means development becomes more likely in the MDR. A weaker and more northerly displaced high does not necessarily portend recurvature, especially if the systems in question have a low latitude start.
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839. JLPR2
Quoting 837. Relix:


Yeah after August 10 I believe we get the real season, and thanks to that High, it could be bad for us in the islands. Hope we don't get a monster when the season gets going, I doubt PR will resist a CAT4 and be Ok afterwards =/


I feel confident that my area would be mostly okay, but there are some areas in the island that would get demolished by something like that. And I don't think the power grid will be a-okay after 140mph or higher winds. XD
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Quoting 835. JLPR2:


One would think so, the GFS is showing the high weakening a bit and moving more to the NE, while lower than normal pressures start to cover the entire Atlantic (150hrs+). That should make an interesting scenario for Late August and into September.


Does that mean African systems turning OTS?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
837. Relix
Quoting 835. JLPR2:


One would think so, the GFS is showing the high weakening a bit and moving more to the NE, while lower than normal pressures start to cover the entire Atlantic (150hrs+). That should make an interesting scenario for Late August and into September.


Yeah after August 10 I believe we get the real season, and thanks to that High, it could be bad for us in the islands. Hope we don't get a monster when the season gets going, I doubt PR will resist a CAT4 and be Ok afterwards =/
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836. JLPR2
Quoting 832. mitchelace5:


Hey they had a storm named after me in '98. Hurricane Mitch! Lol


The best I'll ever get was Luis in 1995, that is my second name, first name will never appear in the list, the Church would scream at the top of their lungs if it did. XD
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835. JLPR2
Quoting 823. Tropicsweatherpr:


Eventually the ITCZ in Central Atlantic will lift north as soon the ridge moves more north.


One would think so, the GFS is showing the high weakening a bit and moving more to the NE, while lower than normal pressures start to cover the entire Atlantic (150hrs+). That should make an interesting scenario for Late August and into September.
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834. VR46L
Quoting 829. redwagon:


One thing that would help is a join-date filter, i.e., as you can set page comment #, the ability to set visibility of comments as of whichever date. I'd like to only see comments of everybody who joined PRIOR to July 1 2013.


Are you serious???? everyone was a newbie at some stage , Any lurker would be put off joining with attitude that everyone who joins is a troll...
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Quoting 814. sensitivethug:






All of the above is good advice to heed, folks :)



you got wu mail
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Quoting 830. lobdelse81:
Remember people, it's barely August and we've already had 4 named storms here in the Atlantic Basin, and that is above the average to-date. The years 1998 and 1999 up to this point in the calendar only had one weak named storm in the books, but both those years went on to become active once August 15 rolled in. I recall some very intense hurricanes those years (Georges, Mitch, Floyd). Though those years produced a modest 14 and 12 named systems, by today's standards, if we were to continue at the pace of those years, we'd still end up with somewhere between 15 to 17 named storms by the time the season is done. Plenty of ample time to get the activity that was advertised.


Hey they had a storm named after me in '98. Hurricane Mitch! Lol. And yeah, that's correct, things usually don't start to fire up in the Atlantic until Mid or Late August. Dry air shouldn't be an issue by then.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
•By: Kait Parker



Rain chances have diminished for the evening, leaving us with only a very slight chance of a shower along the coast. Muggy tonight-- high humidity + overnight lows staying in the upper 70s and low 80s will provide little relief from the afternoon heat. Winds are light and southeasterly.

Thursday initially looked as though it would be a bit more wet for us but after the complete demise of Dorian, our rain chances will stay at a normal 30%.

Thursday night and Friday look like they will see greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms but widespread heavy rain is not expected. Saturday could be a bit more wet for the Treasure Coast.


Read more: http://www.wptv.com/dpp/weather/forecast/todays_fo recast/latest-forecast-from-storm-team-5#ixzz2afe8 dXnA
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Remember people, it's barely August and we've already had 4 named storms here in the Atlantic Basin, and that is above the average to-date. The years 1998 and 1999 up to this point in the calendar only had one weak named storm in the books, but both those years went on to become active once August 15 rolled in. I recall some very intense hurricanes those years (Georges, Mitch, Floyd). Though those years produced a modest 14 and 12 named systems, by today's standards, if we were to continue at the pace of those years, we'd still end up with somewhere between 15 to 17 named storms by the time the season is done. Plenty of ample time to get the activity that was advertised.
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Quoting 814. sensitivethug:






All of the above is good advice to heed, folks :)


One thing that would help is a join-date filter, i.e., as you can set page comment #, the ability to set visibility of comments as of whichever date. I'd like to only see comments of everybody who joined PRIOR to July 1 2013.
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Quoting 816. HurricaneAndre:
Since nothing going on,see you guys next Thursday.
you''ll be back tomorrow lol
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..I'm so happy jus to blog with you..




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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

About

Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Afternoon clouds over Southwest Puerto Rico
Storm clouds gathering over Half Dome
Sierra snow
snowman at Yosemite Falls