Delta almost done; is hurricane season over?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on November 27, 2005

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Tropical Storm Delta continues churning over the far eastern Atlantic, and still has a day of life left in it before cold waters and high wind shear tear it apart and transform it into a powerful extratropical storm on Monday. Delta will probably bring heavy rains and winds gusts to 40 mph to the Canary Islands on Monday and Morocco on Tuesday. Delta is following a track no November tropical storm has ever taken--a check of the Historical Map shows that there has never been a November tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic. Yet another first for the Hurricane Season of 2005!

If Delta dies tomorrow, as expected, will tomorrow then mark the final day of the incredible Hurricane Season of 2005? I'll have a full analysis of the possibilities on Monday, including a discussion of the historical occurrences of hurricanes after December 1.

Jeff Masters

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130. snowboy
3:23 PM GMT on November 28, 2005
Morning everyone, just checking in before heading out. NHC has just issued last advisories for Delta. You have to respect that storm, which is holding its own in the face of 60 knots of shear - it will be making landfall in North Africa tomorrow. To be seen: if this is the last storm of the season, or if we get an Epsilon to pad the record books ...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
129. dcw
11:12 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Warning: another model guilty of FUI: Forecasting Under the Influcence

Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
128. Levi32
5:03 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Goodnight, sleep tight, don't let tornadoes and snowflakes bite.

Farewell everyone.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
127. supercell216
4:59 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
and anyone who lives in the plains: take care tonight, some really dangerous weather out there
126. supercell216
4:59 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
well goodnite guys, nice talking with you all
125. Levi32
4:42 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Right on supercell!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
124. supercell216
4:38 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
lol welcome to 2005 kansas!!! the year of the inexplicable
123. Levi32
4:35 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
The people in eastern Kansas have had to deal with tornadoes this evening, now they are going to get snow! That's crazy!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
122. supercell216
4:33 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
yeah levi, looking nasty out there.
121. supercell216
4:32 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
nite torn, even though andrew completely missed the populated areas of southeast fla lol.
120. Levi32
4:31 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Yeah have you guys thought about this storm in the midwest? It is going to be a long night for the middle of the country.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
119. supercell216
4:29 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
but even though charley could have been so much more devastating with that track, the storm which would have produced 100-200 billion in damage if it had have passed thru that area has to be hurricane andrew.
118. Levi32
4:28 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
That's exactly what I think supercell.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
117. tornadoty
4:28 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Folks, a Charley across Florida did happen. Andrew. Result? Less than 1/4 of the damage amount of Katrina. Enough said. Good night.

p.s. I will be keeping a database of surveys from tonight's outbreak, as I did with the outbreak on 11/15. That will be on my blog starting whenever surveys begin to trickle in.
116. Levi32
4:25 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Well CrazyC83 if it passes right through the middle of metropolitan Miami, it doesn't really matter how far out the winds extend.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
115. supercell216
4:23 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
yeah the flood and storm surge damage from katrina can never be replicated anywhere in the world. we wont see damage like that ever again in our lifetimes. however, because charley's hurricane force winds only extended 30 miles from the center, isnt it shocking how powerful those winds must have been to be the 2nd most costliest natural disaster in u.s history (discounting katrina). it's damage exceeded hurricane ivan which was four times its size. thats why a track into southeast florida would have produced so much more devastation
114. CrazyC83
4:19 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Charley was much, much smaller in size than Katrina, Ivan or Wilma though (hurricane force winds extended out only 30 miles from the eye)...
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
113. Levi32
4:19 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
You're right on that one, but wouldn't the Katrina flood damage be worse than the Charley wind damage, especialy since Charley was moving so fast?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
112. supercell216
4:16 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
miami is much bigger than new orleans with a much higher population, plus look at that area of coastline. imagine a storm like charley, which according to the nhc was stronger at landfall than katrina was, crossing south florida like that. it would certainly rival what katrina did because its winds mixed down to the surface much better than katrina since it was rapidly intensifiying and had a very tight core
111. TheSnowman
4:12 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Doubt it
110. Levi32
4:03 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
I seriously doubt that Charley in Miami would be worse than Katrina in New Orleans. I mean, can it get any worse than what we all saw on tv?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
109. supercell216
4:00 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
tbone

the list officially changes on june 1st, but epsilon is the next name to be used up only until jan 1st 2006

crazyc83

ivan was 120mph at landfall. and i agree that if either ivan or charley had have taken wilma's path then the damage would be beyond belief. ivan because it was so large and was moving much slower, and charley was one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the u.s at 150mph, and so if it had have hit the populated areas of sefl like wilma it might have been more costly than katrina was
108. Levi32
4:00 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
I think the names list changes at the end of the year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
107. TheSnowman
4:00 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
yup
106. TheSnowman
3:59 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Jan. 1st I'd say although If you want to go in the Middle March 1st would be The Middle
105. CrazyC83
3:59 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
If it forms in December, it will be named Epsilon.

If it forms in January or after, it will be named Alberto (first name on 2006 list).
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
104. TheSnowman
3:58 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
but a lot of the others are feeeeesable Which is Crazy I hope they do some of that
103. tbonehfx
3:55 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Here's a question. If December 1st marks the end of the 2005 Hurricane season, will a storm forming afterwards be named "Epsilon" or will It take the first name of the 2006 season? Otherwise, at what point would the name list change- Jan. 1st or Jun. 1st 2006?
Member Since: October 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
102. CrazyC83
3:54 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
If Ivan took Wilma's path, the damage would exceed what Wilma did. Remember that Wilma was moving faster and affected far more people quicker than Ivan did (despite being 125 mph as opposed to Ivan's 135 mph).

Charley was much smaller so if it was on Wilma's path, damage might be less as the immediate landfall area was lightly populated.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
101. supercell216
3:52 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
lol snowman
100. supercell216
3:51 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
ok take ou 2 that is a mistake, i posted that one at the time but just recently discarded it because like you said it is nuts lol. sry about that one, shouldnt be there. i definitely stand by 9: wilma will likely pass charley and ivan for damage estimates in florida, and based on its strengthening trend in the 6hrs before landfall and the structure at landfall, and also the incredibly high winds before instrument failure in sw florida, i think it should be upgraded to cat 4. no.10 i put on there because i believe the satellite signature at landfall was more characteristic of a major hurricane rather than cat 2.
99. CrazyC83
3:51 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
My view on those:

1 - YES
2 - No, Emily had weakened before hitting Yucatan
3 - Not sure about Cat 5, but I'd say 150-155
4 - YES
5 - YES, in fact I think it was 140-145
6 - YES
7 - YES
8 - YES, in fact I think it was 155 at mainland Mexico
9 - No, 954mb is quite high for 125 mph but wind damage seems correct for intensity
10 - No, it was weakening
11 - Not sure yet...
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
98. TheSnowman
3:48 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
I'd be up for 8 HOURS Changeing my Records if those occured But It would be AMAZZING but ya explain 2 9 and 10
97. TheSnowman
3:47 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
2 9 and 10 ARE YOU SURE!!! That Would be NUTS!!!! explain Those 3 Please
96. supercell216
3:45 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
hey boldman
95. theboldman
3:44 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
hey all sup
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
94. supercell216
3:43 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
yeah snowman i guess lol

torn

I COULD NOT AGREE MORE. im glad im back on here because that is absolutely true.

here are my wishes for nhc in their report

1. upgrade emily to a category 5 hurricane in the caribbean
2. upgrade emily to a category 5 hurricane at first landfall in mexico
3. upgrade katrina to a category 5 160mph hurricane at 1st landfall in LA
4. upgrade katrina to a category 4 140mph hurricane at landfall in MS
5. upgrade rita to a category 4 135mph hurricane at landfall in LA (come on, find another storm at cat 3 120mph strength that had a pressure in the 930s)
6. upgrade wilma to a category 5 185mph hurricane at peak intensity in the caribbean, and revise the pressure record to 878mb (based on dvorak estimates when the recon had left the storm shortly after their 882mb reading)
7. upgrade wilma to category 5 160mph at landfall in cozumel
8. upgrade wilma to category 4 145mph at landfall on yucatan
9. upgrade wilma to category 4 135mph at landfall in florida
10. upgrade beta to category 3 115mph at landfall in nicaragua
11. upgrade delta to category 1 hurricane at peak intensity in the atlantic

just a small list......lol......but they are all justifiable i think
93. tornadoty
3:42 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
One fatality from the tornadoes so far tonight:

Storm Reports
92. CrazyC83
3:39 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Yeah I know - 930mb is more typical of a storm at around 150 mph, not 120. I don't think that Rita was quite that high, but 140 is my estimate. Wilma was also underestimated in the Yucatan based on damage reports - Emily hit at exactly the same strength and wasn't as destructive (although the Florida landfall seems correct).

Anyway, you're wondering about Wilma at Cat 3? It did hit it probably just after the 11:00 advisory...and quickly went to Cat 4 afterward...although the 110 mph winds at that last advisory before the hyper-intensification was probably underestimated - it is harder to estimate in the darkness (it was probably more like 125 mph at the time).
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
91. TheSnowman
3:39 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
wow
90. tornadoty
3:32 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
CrazyC83, I was just about to mention the two biggest atrocities this year, Wilma only a cat. 4 in the Yucatan and Rita only a cat. 3 at LA landfall, but I am glad to see you already covered both. I completely agree with everything you typed. Emily was, undoubtably, a cat. 5 as per recon reports at her peak. Wilma was a cat. 5 or very clost to it at landfall in the Yucatan. But what steams me the most is Rita. IT WAS CONTRACTING IT CIRCULATION. ITS EYEWALL WAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT HAD A PRESSURE OF 930 MB, the, correct me if I'm wrong, lowest pressure for any cat. 3 hurricane sans Katrina at its second landfall (which I think was cat. 4 based on Jim Cantore's account of windows made to withstand 180 MPH winds busting in the Veteran's Home in which he was staying in Gulfport). The one gripe I have about the NHC this year is their underestimating the ferocity of these hurricanes.
89. TheSnowman
3:30 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
But don't you think it has the Record for Cat. 3 since it did it for Cat.2 4 AND 5 though
88. hurricanechaser
3:28 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
ok goodnight everyone..thanks for the interesting conversation.:)

87. TheSnowman
3:24 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
sooooo
86. supercell216
3:24 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
yeah for wilma, but wilma skipped cat 3 on its intensificiation and had a 65nm eye when it regained cat 3 status in the gulf
85. hurricanechaser
3:24 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Hey supercell,

your sentiments are right in line with my thoughts about a possible downgrade of Katrina to a category one at Mississippi landfall....heres the link to my archive with the blog I wrote about it..titled..."Katrina wasn't a category One at Landfall." dated October 13th if I remember correctly. if you wanna read my thoughts on it..:)

Link
84. TheSnowman
3:18 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
For Wilma? cause that Probablly means Cat. 3 as well
83. supercell216
3:11 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
i truly hope the nhc have some sense and refrain from downgrading katrina. its not fair on the hundreds of thousands of lives it impacted so horrifically to make it seem less powerful

btw snowman, i have another record for your list (at least i think it is a record): smallest eye diameter for cat 2 hurricane, 8nm (11pm 10/18)
82. hurricanechaser
3:11 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Hey DCW and Snowman,

I hope you two are doing good as well.
81. hurricanechaser
3:10 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
sorry David,

I wasn't trying to ignore, simply type to slowly...lol

Yes I did get it and I will let you know what I have and when I can send it to you in about a couple of weeks. I have so much work to do trying to produce my hurricane documentaries from this amazing season. But I will gladly do it for you first chance I get.:)
80. TheSnowman
3:08 AM GMT on November 28, 2005
Any News on TD 29 or Epsilon

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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