Earth has its 5th Warmest June on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2013

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June 2013 was the globe's 5th warmest June since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 2nd warmest June on record. The year-to-date period of January - June has been the 7th warmest such period on record. June 2013 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2013 was the 340th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 4th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June 2013 in his June 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2013, the 5th warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over much of northern Canada, far northwestern Russia, southern Japan, the Philippines, part of southwestern China, and central southern Africa. It was cooler than average across part of central Asia, central India, western Europe, and far northeastern Canada. No record cold was observed over land areas during the month. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Five billion-dollar weather disasters in June
At least five billion-dollar weather disasters hit Earth during June. The most damaging of these was the historic $22 billion flood disaster that killed at least 23 people in Central Europe in late May and early June--the 5th costliest non-U.S. weather disaster in world history. Record flooding unprecedented since the Middle Ages hit major rivers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia; the Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501, and the Saale River in Halle, Germany was the highest in its 400-year period of record. Numerous cities recorded their highest flood waters in more than a century, although in some locations the great flood of 2002 was higher.

The world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013 is sixteen, and the U.S. total is four, according to the June 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield:

1) Flooding, Central Europe, 5/30 - 6/6, $22 billion
2) Drought, Brazil, 1/1 - 5/31, $8.3 billion
3) Tornado, Moore, OK, and associated U.S. severe weather, 5/18 - 5/22, $4.5 billion
4) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
5) Flooding, Calgary, Alberta Canada, 6/19 - 6/24, $3.8 billion
6) Flooding, Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
7) Flooding, Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
8) Tornadoes and severe weather, U.S., 5/26 - 6/2, $2 billion
9) Severe weather, Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $2 billion
10) Winter weather, Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
11) Drought, New Zealand, 1/1 - 5/10, $1.6 billion
12) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11, $1.6 billion
13) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3, $1.4 billion
14) Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
15) Flooding, India and Nepal, 6/14 - 6/18, $1.1 billion
16) Winter weather, Plains, Midwest, Northeast U.S., 2/24 - 2/27, $1.0 billion

The $8.3 billion cost of the 2013 drought in Brazil makes it by far the costliest natural disaster in Brazil's history, according to the international disasters database EM-DAT. Their 2nd most costly disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars.)


Figure 2. The Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501 during the June 2013 flood. Image credit: Stefan Penninger.


Figure 3. The $22 billion price tag of the June - June 2013 Central European floods puts that disaster in 5th place on the list of most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disasters.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 15th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during June 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer and into the fall, and the large majority of the El Niño models also predict that neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of July 15, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 11th lowest June extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during June was 11th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The relatively high coverage was due to wind patterns that helped spread the ice out over a larger area. During the first two weeks of July, Arctic ice extent has fallen to the 5th lowest level on record.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. If the Atlantic stays quiet, I plan on making my next post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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here we go
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 137 Comments: 123228
Its interesting (to me at least) that even with the high global temperatures, including northern canada and europe, that the daily percentage ice melt on the Greenland ice sheet is back to significantly below average. It has been this way since mid-June, except for a spike last week for a few days.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
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there was a sudden change in the wind. earlier was blowing from ne now is coming from sw and still thunder storm near my area and heavy downpour this wave is very strong
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Quoting Grothar:


We Long Islanders always differentiate ourselves from being from the North Shore or the South Shore, or from out east.

We Clevelanders always differentiated ourselves by East Side and West Side. The West Side was upwind from the steel mills. The East Side was downwind from the mills. I'll leave it to your fertile meteorological mind to guess which side of town was generally considered more desirable. :-)
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we are going to have lots of fish storms if this start up now!! in the next few weeks the high is move to the east now!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 137 Comments: 123228
Quoting 76. Grothar:


The Longislander to which they were referring is a particular blogger who often comes on here, not a Long Islander as a resident. The longislaner to which we were referring is indeed from the South Shore.
gotcha!
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Quoting 67. Waltanater:
Why don't you make your Avatar a "blob!?" LOL


Because the peaceful sunset is to remind everyone he is in his twilight years! :)
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Quoting 51. MechEngMet:


Does Gold not fit your model above? ...not that life can be equated to a quantity of gold. I agree with you there. (Though I know some lawyers who do assign $$$ to life.)

"Does Gold not fit your model above?"
I didn't present a model.
Quickly;
1) There is no gold standard anymore.
2) Life is a metabolic process that ends.
3) Earning potential can be estimated.
4) Money does not exist in nature.
5) Reality cares nothing of human values, including the fact that we value life.
6) Reality doesn't care about good or bad science.
7) The Arctic is melting, there is scientific consensus as to why, and this is affecting the jet stream producing extreme weather events that kill and cause damage.
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New Clue Emerges in Mysterious Manatee Die-Off in Florida

By Nadia Drake
07.18.13
6:30 AM

Article
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Quoting 74. Dakster:


I thought he was- He posted something earlier about a self-portrait.
AWH!...nice one.
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Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link

Thanks a lot
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Quoting 74. Dakster:


I thought he was- He posted something earlier about a self-portrait.


Not a self-portrait. I can't draw a straight line with a ruler. I have a lot of talents, but art and music are not among them.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27403
78. whitewabit (Mod)
3 degrees warmer at noon today then yesterday at this time .. forecast to go to 95 today ..

Peoria, Illinois (Airport)

Updated: 12 min 41 sec ago


Partly Cloudy
89 °F

Partly Cloudy


Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the SW


Pressure: 30.13 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 95 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Pollen: 5.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 4100 ft

Few 5000 ft

(Above Ground Level





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Worth noting that the 12z CMC has the wave emerging at 180 hours like the GFS.
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Quoting 73. Waltanater:
I know! However the term "LongIslander" is not strictly "South Shore". That was the point I was trying to make to the other person.


The Longislander to which they were referring is a particular blogger who often comes on here, not a Long Islander as a resident. The longislaner to which we were referring is indeed from the South Shore.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27403
* AT 1229 PM EDT... NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE MIAMI BEACH AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH BEACH TO JUST NORTH OF 41ST STREET, WITH WATER APPROACHING AND ENTERING SEVERAL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING.
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Quoting 67. Waltanater:
Why don't you make your Avatar a "blob!?" LOL


I thought he was- He posted something earlier about a self-portrait.
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Quoting 69. Grothar:


We Long Islanders always differentiate ourselves from being from the North Shore or the South Shore, or from out east.
I know! However the term "LongIslander" is not strictly "South Shore". That was the point I was trying to make to the other person.
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The SPC has issued a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin



Check out my blog for a write up on today's severe weather potential!

My Blog
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Quoting 67. Waltanater:
Why don't you make your Avatar a "blob!?" LOL


Nah, I wouldn't feel right making fun of a blob.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27403
70. 7544
Quoting 67. Waltanater:
Why don't you make your Avatar a "blob!?" LOL


good idea do it gro .!you are the bolb master .
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Quoting 65. Waltanater:
Nice pun there, but it should be anyone who is in either Nassau or Suffolk counties, not in the city and not the Hamptons.


We Long Islanders always differentiate ourselves from being from the North Shore or the South Shore, or from out east.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27403
Quoting 52. Vlad959810:

Can you post the GFS link if you please ?

Link
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Quoting 64. Grothar:
While conditions are not really favorable, I am tempted to place a blob watch on the tropical wave near the islands.

Why don't you make your Avatar a "blob!?" LOL
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Quoting 62. SyriboTigereyes:

If I remember correctly, I think longislander is South Shore? I am smack dab in the middle, so I am in the Not Really Shore area I guess ;)

There seems to be almost no breeze at all today, making it seem that much hotter.

Oh, and my favorite part of heat waves are the news people interviewing people in NYC.
"How does the weather feel?"
"It's hot"
"Well you heard it here first, folks. It's hot today!"


I think you may be right. I think they were near Massapequa. I'm an old Lloyd Harbor boy myself.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27403
Quoting 62. SyriboTigereyes:

If I remember correctly, I think longislander is South Shore? I am smack dab in the middle, so I am in the Not Really Shore area I guess ;)

There seems to be almost no breeze at all today, making it seem that much hotter.
Nice pun there, but it should be anyone who is in either Nassau or Suffolk counties, not in the city and not the Hamptons.
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While conditions are not really favorable, I am tempted to place a blob watch on the tropical wave near the islands.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27403
Quoting 53. AussieStorm:


Oh,,, why not... cause you just like to start arguments with comments with no back up proof?

You've been here how many days?

Even I think it's a good thing that "system" TA13 showed going north and poof is a good thing. It would help break down the ridge that would lessen the likely hood of a system impacting CONUS.

Please, if you are going to say.

Have proof to show why it won't.

Goodnight
That is his opinion, just like the other guy has an opinion. I don't think he should be bashed for it though.
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Quoting 12. Grothar:


Are you North Shore or South Shore?

If I remember correctly, I think longislander is South Shore? I am smack dab in the middle, so I am in the Not Really Shore area I guess ;)

There seems to be almost no breeze at all today, making it seem that much hotter.

Oh, and my favorite part of heat waves are the news people interviewing people in NYC.
"How does the weather feel?"
"It's hot"
"Well you heard it here first, folks. It's hot today!"
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Quoting 38. EyEtoEyE:
Hello Patrap, What are the chances for the blob in the GOM ?


I defer to the experts as I'm jus a blogger type mostly.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. If the Atlantic stays quiet, I plan on making my next post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
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Your radar loop now shows a funnel...

Quoting 14. Tropicsweatherpr:
Tropical Wave affecting Puerto Rico. Plenty of thunder going on.



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Quoting 29. 7544:


looks like that blob on the west coast wants to visit the east coast of fl watch out gro may be comin for ya ;lol



I already wrote that in an earlier blog. Double whammy.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27403
Quoting 42. AussieStorm:


$2,300,000,000.00 in 1978 had the same buying power as $8,503,740,740.74 in 2013.
Annual inflation over this period was 3.81%

Link


Thank you, and thanks for the link (it's useful and definitely a keeper). So pretty much the 2 drought years in Brazil, dollar-wise, are of the same scale. I was aware of the rest of the list of 2013 disasters to date, but was not aware of the scale of the drought in Brazil.
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As always thank you Dr Masters and good morning to all from Soo Cal

A nice day in Soo Cal today...84 and 9% humidity

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 18 Jul 9:54 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 18 Jul 9:40 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
18 Jul 9:40 am PDT 84 19 9 NNW 7G11
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you beat me to it! let me post my MDT risks in my neck of the woods! =p
ceratainly wasn't expecting that upgrade.


Quoting 49. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The SPC has issued a Moderate risk of severe weather today. Main threat is damaging winds, followed by hail, followed by isolated tornadoes.


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Quoting 17. Patrap:


A blob here?
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Quoting 47. 62901IL:

Forget it.


Oh,,, why not... cause you just like to start arguments with comments with no back up proof?

You've been here how many days?

Even I think it's a good thing that "system" TA13 showed going north and poof is a good thing. It would help break down the ridge that would lessen the likely hood of a system impacting CONUS.

Please, if you are going to say.
Quoting 43. 62901IL:

No its not!


Have proof to show why it won't.

Goodnight
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15991
Quoting 34. TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z GFS shows the tropical wave emerging much farther south than previous runs:



but.....it still gets a bit farther north and dies:


Can you post the GFS link if you please ?
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Quoting 18. zampaz:

Welcome to Earth 2.0
Interesting the 5000 deaths due to flooding in India
didn't rank, because life has no value on a monetary scale of loss.
There is nothing in nature that is the equivalent of money and I find that fascinating to think about.


Does Gold not fit your model above? ...not that life can be equated to a quantity of gold. I agree with you there. (Though I know some lawyers who do assign $$$ to life.)
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Thanks Jeff...
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The SPC has issued a Moderate risk of severe weather today. Main threat is damaging winds, followed by hail, followed by isolated tornadoes.


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92 degrees with 95 forecasted... and the heat index is supposed to get up to 103-104... fun :/ I cant wait for this cold front
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Quoting 46. AussieStorm:


Please explain your answer nubie???

Forget it.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 2105
Quoting 43. 62901IL:

No its not!


Please explain your answer nubie???
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15991
We were expecting a high today of 91F in southern MD. As of 1250, we are at 94.4 with a heat index of 118F.

I'm ready for a return to winter.
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Assuming gee-whiz is relevant:

"The annual nine-day festival attracts more than 100,000 people to bathe in the glow of pyrotechnicians’ expert displays. The main event is the Pamplonada — a seven-hour running of the (wooden) bulls in which more than 200 timber-framed toros of fire roll through the streets with up to 4,000 fireworks on each in perpetual explosion."
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Quoting 37. hurricanes2018:
that good news

No its not!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 2105
Quoting LAbonbon:
From Dr. Masters' blog:


"The $8.3 billion cost of the 2013 drought in Brazil makes it by far the costliest natural disaster in Brazil's history, according to the international disasters database EM-DAT. Their 2nd most costly disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars.)"

Anyone know what the $2.3b in 1978 dollars would equate to in 2013? Unfortunately I have no idea how to estimate that in order to compare the two.


$2,300,000,000.00 in 1978 had the same buying power as $8,503,740,740.74 in 2013.
Annual inflation over this period was 3.81%

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15991
Quoting 34. TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z GFS shows the tropical wave emerging much farther south than previous runs:



but.....it still gets a bit farther north and dies:

cody i talked to storm about the north movement and he said that it makes no sense
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So it already comes off the coast as a near T.S?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18779

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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