Earth has its 5th Warmest June on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2013

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June 2013 was the globe's 5th warmest June since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 2nd warmest June on record. The year-to-date period of January - June has been the 7th warmest such period on record. June 2013 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2013 was the 340th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 4th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June 2013 in his June 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2013, the 5th warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over much of northern Canada, far northwestern Russia, southern Japan, the Philippines, part of southwestern China, and central southern Africa. It was cooler than average across part of central Asia, central India, western Europe, and far northeastern Canada. No record cold was observed over land areas during the month. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Five billion-dollar weather disasters in June
At least five billion-dollar weather disasters hit Earth during June. The most damaging of these was the historic $22 billion flood disaster that killed at least 23 people in Central Europe in late May and early June--the 5th costliest non-U.S. weather disaster in world history. Record flooding unprecedented since the Middle Ages hit major rivers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia; the Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501, and the Saale River in Halle, Germany was the highest in its 400-year period of record. Numerous cities recorded their highest flood waters in more than a century, although in some locations the great flood of 2002 was higher.

The world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013 is sixteen, and the U.S. total is four, according to the June 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield:

1) Flooding, Central Europe, 5/30 - 6/6, $22 billion
2) Drought, Brazil, 1/1 - 5/31, $8.3 billion
3) Tornado, Moore, OK, and associated U.S. severe weather, 5/18 - 5/22, $4.5 billion
4) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
5) Flooding, Calgary, Alberta Canada, 6/19 - 6/24, $3.8 billion
6) Flooding, Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
7) Flooding, Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
8) Tornadoes and severe weather, U.S., 5/26 - 6/2, $2 billion
9) Severe weather, Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $2 billion
10) Winter weather, Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
11) Drought, New Zealand, 1/1 - 5/10, $1.6 billion
12) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11, $1.6 billion
13) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3, $1.4 billion
14) Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
15) Flooding, India and Nepal, 6/14 - 6/18, $1.1 billion
16) Winter weather, Plains, Midwest, Northeast U.S., 2/24 - 2/27, $1.0 billion

The $8.3 billion cost of the 2013 drought in Brazil makes it by far the costliest natural disaster in Brazil's history, according to the international disasters database EM-DAT. Their 2nd most costly disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars.)


Figure 2. The Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501 during the June 2013 flood. Image credit: Stefan Penninger.


Figure 3. The $22 billion price tag of the June - June 2013 Central European floods puts that disaster in 5th place on the list of most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disasters.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 15th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during June 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer and into the fall, and the large majority of the El Niño models also predict that neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of July 15, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 11th lowest June extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during June was 11th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The relatively high coverage was due to wind patterns that helped spread the ice out over a larger area. During the first two weeks of July, Arctic ice extent has fallen to the 5th lowest level on record.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. If the Atlantic stays quiet, I plan on making my next post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 322. sar2401:

Not true. The vast majority of Hurricane Hunter missions are flown by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, based out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi. The costs of these missions, with the exception of a few civilian hurricane specialists, is directly funded by the DOD. Other research mission are flown by NOAA.



According to the Sun Sentinel report, along with many other news agencies, Hurricane Hunter Operating costs are still footed by the NOAA.


"NOAA was forced to take a 7 percent cut. But that was more than offset when Congress %u2014 as part of a $50 billion relief package in the wake of Sandy %u2014 added $476 million to NOAA's budget, mostly to spare its weather satellites and Hurricane Hunters from sequester cuts." Link

and from Wiki "The NOAA Hurricane Hunters work under the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC), located on MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida. The Aircraft Operations Center is under the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO), which is a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA is part of the Department of Commerce. The AOC has resided at MacDill AFB since January 1993."

edit: I see the problem is there are two distinct groups, one out of Biloxi that flies Pacific and Mid Atlantic missions, and the other at MacDill that handles the others, both operate under the handle Hurricane Hunters. Simple misunderstanding. Sorry.
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the wave at 40w 16-18north alot of turning out there vis loop. next one to watch
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Quoting 309. sar2401:

I will agree with the fact that the Congress, in general, is about the most dysfunctional organization we have, but I won't agree that sequestration led to directly to Hurricane Hunter budget cuts. Congress passed sequestration in 2011, so it's not like it should have been a big shock when it happened. The media should be ferreting out who's making these spending cut decisions, not blaming what was already done, regardless of how it happened.

Earlier you used an example of cutting cable entertainment budget to pay for medicine.
Imagine for a moment that your budget gets cut 10.00, but instead of having a choice of cutting cable, or medicine, you have to take 5.00 away from each.
You get neither cable or medicine when you do that.
That is how sequestration works. Funds cannot be moved around.
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Just looking again at the incredible amounts of rainfall in South Florida. Read somewhere that Lake "Okeechoobee" is an ancient Indian name for "Big Water".

This year it translates into "biggest" water......
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Quoting 281. Dakster:


Animal control caught a nice 20' python across the street from my house. It had eaten a couple of full grown peacocks whole.

A little south of me they caught a 25' one with a whole deer in its belly...


The state record for a Python caught in Florida is 18'8" so those measurements are exaggerated.

Link
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Quoting 330. Bluestorm5:
Which radar site are you trying to look up? And is the radar on WU or NWS site?


It's on WU, of course now that I asked, I see that it's been a recurring problem today ;)
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334. VR46L
Quoting 324. LAbonbon:


Now there's some humor I can appreciate! I loved the Dune series, but I think I'm the only one on here that hasn't seen Sharknado (nor do I really want to...)


Nope Your not ! I dont think its been shown across the pond yet ... but I really dont want to see Chainsaw massacre on sharks that had the misfortune of being caught in a water spout ... No matter how fantasy it is ...
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There are several handfuls of radar sites down for maintenance. Current status of all level 3 radar data flow: http://weather.noaa.gov/monitor/radar/
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Quoting 329. whitewabit:


Your not the only one ..
Ditto. I skipped it.
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We're having a heat wave here in the UK. Started about 10 days ago. Temperature reached 87 degrees today. Warmest summer for about 7 years. Past three summers have been very cool, so we're not used to it. Temperatures could reach 95 next week, according to the Met Office. Excess deaths reckoned to be several hundred so far. That'll rocket if the 95 prediction comes true. There were tens of thousands of excess deaths during an extreme heatwave in France some years ago.
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Quoting 328. carolinabelle:
Sorry for the semi-off-topic question, but anyone else getting a 'Radar Down for Maintenance' message every time you try to load a local NEXRAD? Tried several out of state too and had the same problem.
Which radar site are you trying to look up? And is the radar on WU or NWS site?
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329. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 324. LAbonbon:


I think I'm the only one on here that hasn't seen Sharknado (nor do I really want to...)


Your not the only one ..
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Sorry for the semi-off-topic question, but anyone else getting a 'Radar Down for Maintenance' message every time you try to load a local NEXRAD? Tried several out of state too and had the same problem.
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Quoting GatorWX:
I still can't get radar to work sar. I'm on my phone, but they've always worked.

There still seem to be intermittent failures. Which radar are you looking at? I'm looking at Ft. Rucker, AL, and it will show "Down for Maintenance" for a minute or two and then come back up. I've seen the same thing all over the SE, don't know about the rest of the country. It's kind of strange that Twitter will post a notice within seconds when they have a problem, but we'll probably never find out what's happening with the NWS radars.
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Quoting 319. ncstorm:
Yesterday it was the east coast for the CFS..today its texas..August looks pretty interesting..(this is very long range)





how strong is the storm on the run
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GFS puts the blob over me in 12 hours..................
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Quoting 314. goosegirl1:


I must read too much, I thought of this: Link

Maybe I sniffed too much of the spice :))


Now there's some humor I can appreciate! I loved the Dune series, but I think I'm the only one on here that hasn't seen Sharknado (nor do I really want to...)
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Quoting 300. bappit:
Here's another interesting link. This one is for the Hurricane Research Divisions Field Program. They have pdf's on each year's program going back to 1997. Here is the pdf for 2013.


More great links...

This research about Dmax-Dmin sounds very interesting:

8. TC Diurnal Cycle Experiment
Principal Investigator: Jason Dunion
Program Significance:
Numerous studies have documented the existence of diurnal maxima and minima associated with tropical convection. However, predicting the timing and extent of this variability remains a difficult challenge. Recent research using GOES satellite imagery has identified a robust signal of tropical cyclone diurnal pulsing. These pulses can be tracked using new GOES infrared satellite image differencing and may represent an unrealized, yet fundamental process of mature TCs. The new satellite imagery reveals ―cool rings‖ in the infrared that begin forming in the storm‘s inner core near local sunset each day. Similar to ripples that form after a pebble is thrown into a pond, the cool ring, or pulse, continues to away from the storm overnight, reaching areas several hundred km from the storm center by the following afternoon. There appear to be significant structural changes and disruptions to a storm [as indicated by GOES IR and microwave (37 and 85 GHz) satellite imagery] as this pulse moves out from the inner core each day and the timing/propagation of these cool rings also appears to be remarkably predictable. The goal of this experiment is to sample the thermodynamic and kinematic environment of these diurnal pulses at various stages of their life cycles, including their initial formation and subsequent evolution, and to observe any corresponding fluctuations in TC structure and intensity during these events.
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Quoting Naga5000:

NOAA and the Hurricane Hunters fall under the Department of Commerce not the Department of Defense Budget. That being said, the NOAA was actually granted an extra 476 million through the Hurricane Sandy relief bill.

Not true. The vast majority of Hurricane Hunter missions are flown by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, based out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi. The costs of these missions, with the exception of a few civilian hurricane specialists, is directly funded by the DOD. Other research mission are flown by NOAA.
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NAM does too ...nam in 6 hours.................
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Quoting 313. GatorWX:
I still can't get radar to work sar. I'm on my phone, but they've always worked.
Which radar?
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Yesterday it was the east coast for the CFS..today its texas..August looks pretty interesting..(this is very long range)





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The International Airport of San Juan has been temporary closed as the international and domestic flights are not departing or landing at Isla Verde but are going to Ramey in Aguadilla waiting for the green light to fly to San Juan. This wave has punch.
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Quoting 308. dabirds:
Dune actually first (it was on late night earlier this week, flipping through when they were riding them)

95 w/ 72 dew pt for a 103 HI (saw 104 earlier). Getting a little more westerly component to winds now avg SSW at 5. Pressure dropping, 30.2s yesterday,.1s this a.m., now 30.04. Hoping for a nice shower this weekend, corn in C IL could use it (pool & garden too)!


See 314, I thought the same except I didn't watch it, I read it :))
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Quoting 302. Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a great image that says it all of one of the main expressways of San Juan. I have to say that the infractucture here is not the best but the rate of rainfall was around 2 inches per hour. Later I will get the rainfall totals for today and my guess is it broke the record for this date by a lot.





I think it's 6 in and counting for San Juan. Rainfall record at the airport broken (was from 1950).
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GUYS LOOK..RAP model takes that ft myers blob to the EAST coast...
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Quoting 277. RTSplayer:
Now SyFy is playing "Sand Sharks," is a bad rip-off of teh Kevin Bacon movie "Tremors".

Although the first appearance of "Sand Worms," which actually look like sharks, was in the Beetlejuice movie.


I must read too much, I thought of this: Link

Maybe I sniffed too much of the spice :))
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I still can't get radar to work sar. I'm on my phone, but they've always worked.
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Records are broken.
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Quoting 276. LargoFl:
dont we have posters here from ft myers etc..how IS it down there?..


Doesn't seen to want to works it's way up to boca grande. Looked like we were goin to get wacked, but it's mostly stayed down south.
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Quoting 306. ScottLincoln:

The money in the Sandy bill was specifically targeted. The cuts that needed to be made due to the sequester were not simply a percentage of each main government department, they were closer to across-the-board. This is part of the reason that furloughs have been required by many agencies, even if they could have moved money from other accounts to cover personnel. The only reason that the FAA and NWS have avoided originally-planned furloughs is because reprogramming requests were approved by Congress to allow money to come from different accounts and cover payroll.

The Sandy relief bill had quite a bit of money targeted and computer model improvements, but my understanding is that money from that bill was not budgeted for NWS personnel.


I knew they received the money, I just didn't know the finer points. Thanks, Scott.
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Quoting zampaz:

Read what I said Sar. I said nothing about specific cuts;)
I said the sequestration occurred because of failure of congress to compromise.

On March 1st, the sequester, cutting 1.2 trillion dollars over the next decade, went into effect due to Congress's failure to reach a deal to avoid it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_ debt-ceiling_debate
Let us at least compromise on the fact that congress cannot compromise and as a result things get fouled up.

I will agree with the fact that the Congress, in general, is about the most dysfunctional organization we have, but I won't agree that sequestration led to directly to Hurricane Hunter budget cuts. Congress passed sequestration in 2011, so it's not like it should have been a big shock when it happened. The media should be ferreting out who's making these spending cut decisions, not blaming what was already done, regardless of how it happened.
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Quoting 277. RTSplayer:
Now SyFy is playing "Sand Sharks," is a bad rip-off of teh Kevin Bacon movie "Tremors".

Although the first appearance of "Sand Worms," which actually look like sharks, was in the Beetlejuice movie.
Dune actually first (it was on late night earlier this week, flipping through when they were riding them)

95 w/ 72 dew pt for a 103 HI (saw 104 earlier). Getting a little more westerly component to winds now avg SSW at 5. Pressure dropping, 30.2s yesterday,.1s this a.m., now 30.04. Hoping for a nice shower this weekend, corn in C IL could use it (pool & garden too)!
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It is now in WPB
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Quoting 289. Naga5000:

NOAA and the Hurricane Hunters fall under the Department of Commerce not the Department of Defense Budget. That being said, the NOAA was actually granted an extra 476 million through the Hurricane Sandy relief bill.

The money in the Sandy bill was specifically targeted. The cuts that needed to be made due to the sequester were not simply a percentage of each main government department, they were closer to across-the-board. This is part of the reason that furloughs have been required by many agencies, even if they could have moved money from other accounts to cover personnel. The only reason that the FAA and NWS have avoided originally-planned furloughs is because reprogramming requests were approved by Congress to allow money to come from different accounts and cover payroll.

The Sandy relief bill had quite a bit of money targeted for computer model improvements, but my understanding is that money from that bill was not budgeted for NWS personnel.
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Crazy amounts and theres more for the metro area!
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Quoting 298. sar2401:

Snake sizes are subject to liberal interpretation, Blue. It was all the news here when a hunter caught a 16 foot long Eastern Dimaondback. Turned out he was actually a little over 8.5 feet when measured by Game and Fish, but he sure looked 16 foot long in pictures.
That's a big rattler... dang. We get them here in Carolinas as well.
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I'm right in the middle of this meso discussion... the waiting continues. 91 degrees outside, 70 degree dewpoint, and the A/C in the building is broken on the one day I decided to not wear shorts to the office. Will be cutting out of the office early if convection starts popping!

First real severe threat this year so far, about a month later than usual.

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Here is a great image that says it all of one of the main expressways of San Juan. I have to say that the infractucture here is not the best but the rate of rainfall was around 2 inches per hour. Later I will get the rainfall totals for today and my guess is it broke the record for this date by a lot.



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Here's another interesting link. This one is for the Hurricane Research Divisions Field Program. They have pdf's on each year's program going back to 1997. Here is the pdf for 2013.
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Nap time. I was told "No jello" if I don't lie down. I want to see some yellow circles when I wake up.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I never heard of pythons in Florida going that big...

Snake sizes are subject to liberal interpretation, Blue. It was all the news here when a hunter caught a 16 foot long Eastern Dimaondback. Turned out he was actually a little over 8.5 feet when measured by Game and Fish, but he sure looked 16 foot long in pictures.
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1 in 6 chance of a 10ft sea level rise by 2070..my county is half under water..map wont post...good thing im 48ft above sea level BUT..the beaches will be much closer lol...
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Quoting 260. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who are you kidding? They're everywhere over here.
Because there are many houses and farms here. Not many areas to see snakes here, even though it's rural.
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Quoting 256. sar2401:

Sorry, Zam, but that is complete bull. Congress did not mandate the funding for Hurricane Hunters get cut. Congress mandated that $42.7 billion would be cut from defense spending. Period. It doesn't make line item budgets, the DOD does. the $42.7 billion is a 6.3% drop from last year's spending, which was deliberately increased to make the budget cuts less "painful" to the DOD. As I wrote, I'm certain that the DOD could have made these budget cuts, which are really a decrease in the rate of spending increases each year, to supplies and programs not a high priority to the functioning of the DOD. We all have to live within a budget and, if the amount of money coming in decreases, we have to prioritize where we cut. If my income was cut by 6.3%, and a chunk of that was spent on the most expensive movie package available from my cable company, I'd cut back to basic cable instead of not buying medicine I need to stay alive. It's no different with the DOD, except they are making the opposite decision. Surely you don't believe the DOD operates so efficiently that the Hurricane Hunters was the only item that could be cut, do you?

Read what I said Sar. I said nothing about specific cuts;)
I said the sequestration occurred because of failure of congress to compromise.

On March 1st, the sequester, cutting 1.2 trillion dollars over the next decade, went into effect due to Congress's failure to reach a deal to avoid it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_ debt-ceiling_debate
Let us at least compromise on the fact that congress cannot compromise and as a result things get fouled up.
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Quoting 278. barbamz:


First, Gro, please correct my quoted post! I've confused East and West once again (already edited in the original).

And yes, I sure would like to see the Caribbean. Must be enchanting. When I was a kid I once had a penfriend in Jamaica whose brother was quite interested in me. Maybe I should have been more open minded back then, lol.


Consider it done.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I lost power for 2 hours. I can tell you is like hell here with massive traffic jams,mudslides,flooding everywhere,powr outages etc. And this is only a Tropical Wave.

Here are some images.














Nice pics, TWPR, whoever got them. I've been to many of the places in those photos, including the La Frontera taco stand. I wonder how long those drivers will sit on the expressway waiting for the water do recede in the underpass?
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Quoting 281. Dakster:


Animal control caught a nice 20' python across the street from my house. It had eaten a couple of full grown peacocks whole.

A little south of me they caught a 25' one with a whole deer in its belly...
I never heard of pythons in Florida going that big...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABOUT
THE WAVE AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 62W-72W. THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IS
ACROSS AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. AS THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.