Wet June on the East Coast Raises Hurricane Flood Risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2013

Share this Blog
52
+

June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Over three times as many record warm highs and lows occurred than record cold highs and lows during June. For the year-to-date period January - June, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 33% and 23% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, June extremes were about 10% below average, and the year-to-date period January - June 2013 has been 20% below average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet June on the East Coast raises hurricane flood risk
It was a very June for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th wettest June since 1895. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June. The very wet June has brought some of the highest soil moisture levels ever recorded for July along much of the coast from Florida to Maine, increasing the chances of extreme flooding should this region receive a hit from a tropical storm or hurricane during the coming peak months of hurricane season. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the East Coast under a wetter-than-average weather pattern into early August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 1.4' above average for this time of year, and 5' higher than two years ago. While this still puts the lake 1.2' below what is considered high water, Lake Okeechobee water levels will need to be watched as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June on record. Utah had its driest June on record, and Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming had a top-ten driest June. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for July 14, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire are near their highest soil moisture levels on record for this time of year, increasing the odds of extreme flooding in those states should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June. According to the July 9 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on June 21 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions during the remainder of summer. Approximately 1.2 million acres of land burned in the U.S. during June, which is above average. However, the year-to-date total acreage burned is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1320 - 1270

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

1320. winter123
3:53 AM GMT on July 18, 2013
Quoting 1319. eyewallblues:
Earthquake.com just reported an 8.2 hippo-quake near Paris. Hippos have emerged from the crevasses and are stampeding through the wreckage. I thought sharknadoes were bad....but this!!!!


















I think fire hurricanes are the worst.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
1319. eyewallblues
2:43 AM GMT on July 18, 2013
Earthquake.com just reported an 8.2 hippo-quake near Paris. Hippos have emerged from the crevasses and are stampeding through the wreckage. I thought sharknadoes were bad....but this!!!!

















Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1318. islander101010
3:56 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
seems like alittle spin just sw of florda heading due west. also watching the windwds wave. last night popcorn showers starting showing and the trend has increased. we might see a wave develop just east
of the windwards this yr no doubt its a hot spot.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4344
1317. islander101010
3:31 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
no blob here just drizzle in e cen florida
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4344
1316. 69Viking
2:36 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1269. pcola57:


Morning 69Viking..
I hope to dry out some as well..
I see you had a decent Warned t'storm yesterday evening..
Or did it pass you by?..
I have been enjoying the less than average temps..
Had a surgery and am re-cooping..
Ready for the worst though..


It came from the East and went along the coast through Destin and then as it approached FWB it started to shrink and edge North and just missed me as I live just West of FWB right along the Sound. I can remember praying for rain and last night I was happy that it missed me. I still need a few more days of no rain for the low are in my front yard to dry up so I mow the lawn.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3010
1315. barbamz
1:56 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1314. Grothar:


Are you giving German lessons again? You know they will never pronounce it properly. You know how we are from Hannover.


Gro, new blog, lol!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5676
1314. Grothar
1:54 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1277. barbamz:


Yeah, nice mixture of English and German, lol.


Are you giving German lessons again? You know they will never pronounce it properly. You know how we are from Hannover.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
1313. biff4ugo
1:43 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
What's for breakfast?

Since Water is Power and Power is Water... climate change, carbon,...

As for Florida Solar, my neighbor has a net zero bill, and about 13,000 covered the cost for a family of 4 and they should pay for itself in 4 to 7 years. That is less than 4,000 per person and make more than that over the lifetime of the panels.

Given that the War's cost the US 12,000 PER PERSON back in 2012 and gained US citizens ZERO economic dividends in the future, how can we afford not to make Trillion dollar investments to pay of trillion dollar debt? Over the lifetime of the US wide panel investment, it would generate money and cover some of the war interest we owe. [if it were practical everywhere]
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1547
1312. Tazmanian
1:39 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1307. Hurricanes305:
As the ITCZ rise it will continue to bring favorable conditions aloft to support those Tropical waves



SAL has lost it coverage tremendously since Chantal was first in the MDR there may be one or two more outbreaks but nothing significant if MJO & ITCZ start cranking out more waves. I do believe this year will be heavily MDR systems but most of the active seasons from 2010 has had many Mid-latitudes storm that make them look really active. This season wont have much mid-latitude system (if at all)thus 14-17 storms is reasonable but there will be a substantial increased chance of landfalls as all storm this year have affected the three most vulnerable areas for storms this year Mexico/Central America (Barry), Gulf/Florida (Andrea), Greater Antilles (Chantal). Even if the High weakens some it will only be reinforced by the ridge over Eastern Canada with that being said I don't see much storms recurving before they reach 60W.
.

Wind shear. Been high most of the season. So far
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
1311. etxwx
1:39 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Good morning all. Hope you are back to feeling 100% soon pcola. I guess it's pointless to hope you Floridians stay dry, but do stay safe...and maybe google up some ark plans. Or just consult Grothar, he probably still has the originals. :)

Not a bad forecast here for East Texas...Wednesday........Variable clouds with a 40 percent coverage of showers and thunderstorms, Highs near 90. Winds southeasterly at 5-16 mph.


mikatnight, tell Dexter Capt Jack says thanks for the pet tag info.

Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
1310. RitaEvac
1:38 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Didn't get any rain till after 7PM last evening, then received more rain overnight for a whopping 0.75" total this morning. And there's Gro over there getting 3"
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1309. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:38 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1308. nrtiwlnvragn
1:38 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Gro is probably ready to cry uncle.......


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10883
1307. Hurricanes305
1:37 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
As the ITCZ rise it will continue to bring favorable conditions aloft to support those Tropical waves



SAL has lost it coverage tremendously since Chantal was first in the MDR there may be one or two more outbreaks but nothing significant if MJO & ITCZ start cranking out more waves. I do believe this year will be heavily MDR systems but most of the active seasons from 2010 has had many Mid-latitudes storm that make them look really active. This season wont have much mid-latitude system (if at all)thus 14-17 storms is reasonable but there will be a substantial increased chance of landfalls as all storm this year have affected the three most vulnerable areas for storms this year Mexico/Central America (Barry), Gulf/Florida (Andrea), Greater Antilles (Chantal). Even if the High weakens some it will only be reinforced by the ridge over Eastern Canada with that being said I don't see much storms recurving before they reach 60W.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1306. barbamz
1:36 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Woah, now Gro's world is wiped out by rain - at least on the screen of the webcam.
Really interesting weather you've got over there!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5676
1305. 7544
1:36 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1290. Grothar:
This is definitely a blob. Now you people are getting good at this.




yep but will it also move west to south fl tia

bahammas is goin to be the sweet spot this year imo wait till a strom reaches there it will expolde
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6693
1304. Tazmanian
1:35 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1290. Grothar:
This is definitely a blob. Now you people are getting good at this.


.


It still dos not matter I saw it 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
1303. pcola57
1:34 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1302. mikatnight: I've been forgetting to mention - you may have noticed one of Dexter's tags has a QR code imprinted on it. The QR code can be scanned by any smartphone, and will show the person who scans whatever info we wish to provide. It also immediately sends us an email showing the exact geographical location of the scan. Dex is also 'chipped', but that requires a special scanner. I won't take time to go into detail, but I highly recommend it. Go to PetHub.com to find out more.


Wow..
Did not know that about the smart chip(/QR coded tag..)
Will look into it for sure..
Thanks Mik..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
1302. mikatnight
1:31 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Oops, late again!
Well, just a cloudy day here in Lantana so far, but that doesn't mean it's not a Good Morning!

7:34 am (11:34 GMT)



Looking south where all the rain is, no precip for us yet today.

Dexter does his impression of some people I've talked to about hurricane season - and buries his head in the sand.

I've got to get a better camera to take Dex pics with. My 3 1/2 + yr old Nexus 1 snaps the photo a full 2 seconds after I press the shutter button. Hard to get the cute money shot that way.

Also, I've been forgetting to mention - you may have noticed one of Dexter's tags has a QR code imprinted on it. The QR code can be scanned by any smartphone, and will show the person who scans whatever info we wish to provide. It also immediately sends us an email showing the exact geographical location of the scan. Dex is also 'chipped', but that requires a special scanner. I won't take time to go into detail, but I highly recommend it. Go to PetHub.com to find out more.

Amazingly, we only picked up a little over a quarter of an inch of rain yesterday. NWS says 80% for us today. We'll see...



(from WU)
Today is forecast to be cooler than yesterday.
High risk of rip currents Atlantic beaches...
Wednesday...
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain showers, then thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 84F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1301. LargoFl
1:30 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
1300. Tazmanian
1:29 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1294. boltdwright:


Really man? I am taking my chips to Vegas on this. You better not be wrong.

All jokes aside, this is about the craziest thing I have heard all day. Models will NEVER be good at predicting past 10 days for a while, and making such far fetched statements like this one can easily damage your credibility.

Give the Hurricane Season some time, and wait to make statements such as this until we are in November and have actually been able to see if the season was a bust.
.


Lol. Good luck in winning
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
1299. pcola57
1:29 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1295. thunderstromsmike:
just like this entire past weekend they said we would have from 3 to 6 inches of rain between friday and sunday night here in daytona and we barely saw a sprinkle and it was sunny all weekend


Frustrating when you have/make plans..
I know..
I think Daytona will get its due.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
1298. seminolesfan
1:29 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Calling a season a bust on 7/17? Seriously?

Trolling, trolling, trolling...IMO.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
1297. LargoFl
1:28 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
1296. LargoFl
1:28 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1284. Grothar:
We are getting hit with one heavy tropical downpour after another. Minor street is already occurring and more is coming. We didn't really expect this much rain. Our gauge shows 3 inches since last night. But this rain is HEAVY.

stay safe down there gro, your getting what we in central florida got for a whole month..man that street flooding can really be dangerous when your driving..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
1294. boltdwright
1:26 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


Really man? I am taking my chips to Vegas on this. You better not be wrong.

All jokes aside, this is about the craziest thing I have heard all day. Models will NEVER be good at predicting past 10 days for a while, and making such far fetched statements like this one can easily damage your credibility.

Give the Hurricane Season some time, and wait to make statements such as this until we are in November and have actually been able to see if the season was a bust.
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 5 Comments: 177
1293. Hurricanes305
1:25 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1243. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Not too much to report this morning as to the Atlantic except the observation that the ITCZ is firing around the 8N-9N position per today's Hovmoller (below). Will start to rise in earnest to the 10N mark over the next four weeks.

Link


In less than 2 weeks to ITCZ has risen from around 6N to 8/9N not bad. I still think there will be a storm to form around the last week of the month as the MJO is actually retrograding backward back into the Atlantic epecially in the Eastern Atlantic and Africa where it will provide the upward motion to support and spin up large tropical waves.



Take a look at Africa this maybe overdone a bit but I expect some really large vigorous waves out of this setup if it verifies
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1292. hurricanes2018
1:25 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
no way we are getting 16 to 20 names storm now..more like 14 to 16 names storms
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13584
1291. pcola57
1:24 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1289. thunderstromsmike:
im not wishing for a hurricane at all ive been through to many and dont want them..... i was just stating a fact of how wrong forcasting can be


I see your point..
Forecasting is ..well..forecasting..
A toss of the data dice.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
1290. Grothar
1:24 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
This is definitely a blob. Now you people are getting good at this.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
1288. pcola57
1:21 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1287. thunderstromsmike:
when they say 90% chance of rain here in florida we dont get anything just like every year when they say above average hurricanes we get nothing


Can't really tell if your wishing for a hurricaine..
But if you are, be careful what ya wish for.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
1286. 7544
1:18 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
new blob in the bahammas ?

heavy rain in south fl for most of today make that buckets

will the new bahama blob also head west for more

will gro a sfl man largo . georfy and and others there need a boat this week lol ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6693
1285. xcool
1:17 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
I agree Tazmanian
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1284. Grothar
1:17 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
We are getting hit with one heavy tropical downpour after another. Minor street is already occurring and more is coming. We didn't really expect this much rain. Our gauge shows 3 inches since last night. But this rain is HEAVY.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
1283. SFLWeatherman
1:16 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
1282. zoomiami
1:14 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Funny reading back over the comments, now the season is going to be slow. Such a reaction to the 24 hour setup. Our "get it now" society.

Answer to flooding issues -- in deep south dade where we are there is just a lot of standing water, and little canals & lakes where there really aren't any. It doesn't take long for the water to drain down. That doesn't mean its not really wet here!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
1280. LargoFl
1:09 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
7day for the Tampa Bay area.....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
1279. Dragod66
1:08 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
lol "unwetter" - German is cool!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 604
1278. islander101010
1:08 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
watching the windwards system popcorn showers right now
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4344
1277. barbamz
1:07 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1276. pcola57:


Morning barb..
German is soo cool to see on the WU screenshot you posted..
I can make out most of it..
I know absolutely no German.. :)


Yeah, nice mixture of English and German, lol.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5676
1276. pcola57
1:05 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1275. barbamz:


WU should add it to their start page, lol.



Morning barb..
German is soo cool to see on the WU screenshot you posted..
I can make out most of it..
I know absolutely no German.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
1275. barbamz
1:01 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1255. nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC "testing" the South Florida area of clouds


NHC 88L TEST 20130717 1200 250N 0790W


WU should add it to their start page, lol.


Screenshot some minutes ago.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5676
1274. nrtiwlnvragn
1:00 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 1265. Tazmanian:
i think are high is a little too strong may be thats why where not see march in a way of any thing right now


Or we are just approaching the "ramp-up" of the season


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10883
1273. Autistic2
12:59 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
good day here in st Augustine. Off to pull my blue crab traps.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
1272. pcola57
12:58 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Looking like a good beach day on tap..
Just watch for the rip currents..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
1271. LargoFl
12:58 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
well the rains return for my city tomorrow.........................THURSDAY
Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s near the coast and in the lower 70s inland. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
1270. floridaboy14
12:57 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
2010 didnt see its season start until august 20th
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102

Viewing: 1320 - 1270

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
62 °F
Overcast