Wet June on the East Coast Raises Hurricane Flood Risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2013

Share this Blog
52
+

June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Over three times as many record warm highs and lows occurred than record cold highs and lows during June. For the year-to-date period January - June, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 33% and 23% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, June extremes were about 10% below average, and the year-to-date period January - June 2013 has been 20% below average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet June on the East Coast raises hurricane flood risk
It was a very June for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th wettest June since 1895. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June. The very wet June has brought some of the highest soil moisture levels ever recorded for July along much of the coast from Florida to Maine, increasing the chances of extreme flooding should this region receive a hit from a tropical storm or hurricane during the coming peak months of hurricane season. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the East Coast under a wetter-than-average weather pattern into early August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 1.4' above average for this time of year, and 5' higher than two years ago. While this still puts the lake 1.2' below what is considered high water, Lake Okeechobee water levels will need to be watched as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June on record. Utah had its driest June on record, and Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming had a top-ten driest June. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for July 14, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire are near their highest soil moisture levels on record for this time of year, increasing the odds of extreme flooding in those states should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June. According to the July 9 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on June 21 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions during the remainder of summer. Approximately 1.2 million acres of land burned in the U.S. during June, which is above average. However, the year-to-date total acreage burned is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1020 - 970

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Quoting 1018. bappit:
1015 shows a classic example of someone spreading doubt through their dishonesty.


Dishonesty? It's a graph with my interpretation. Unlike the IPCC, I don't fabricate graphs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1019. drs2008
Quoting 1008. gulfbreeze:
Climate change is more than man can change. We must learn our limits live with it!!
our species probably contributes,however, to attribute all change to human activity creates the illusion that we can now change what is going to happen. I believe it is already too late unless we make draconian changes,beginning immediately,imho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1018. bappit
1015 shows a classic example of someone spreading doubt through their dishonesty.

Edit: not no1der, the post he is commenting on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOOK AT 24 WEST!!! WOW!! nice spin with the tropical wave!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just posted my first blog post - mostly just graphics for now. I would be grateful if you checked it out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1015. no1der
You've shown someone's good example of hiding the forest by rescaling one tree.

Here's the bigger picture:

BTW what's your source? Mine's here: http://www.climatedata.info/Proxy/Proxy/icecores. html
It's conventional to post sources if you expect to be taken seriously.




Quoting 982. galvestonhurricane:


The CO2 level and increasing insolation 105,000 years ago should have caused the Earth to warm up, but it didn't.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 974. PedleyCA:


Don't think so. #2 is usually pointed at that black/yellow/white thing. Is that a buoy. If so, it is still where it was.

I wonder why that cam keeps taking shots that look like dramatizations of the aftermath of untreated glaucoma...

Is that water I see just beyond the black/yellow/white thing? If so, is it just surface water, or is it melting clear through?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1013. bappit
Quoting 1002. ncstorm:


and calling people "Doubt Mongers" is a touching sentiment?

In some cases it is the truth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1009. BaltimoreBrian:


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....
Humanado? (hu as in hurricane,man as in human and nado as in tornado.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1011. drs2008
Quoting 1009. BaltimoreBrian:


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....
i hve an idea for a great tv show. Criminal mimes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....

Boom!!!!! Boom!!!! Tish!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 993. SunriseSteeda:
Why? Is humor against the rules? :)


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 992. congaline:

Wunderground's Climate Change Position
Earth's climate is warming. This time, humans are mostly responsible, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.

Discuss...
Climate change is more than man can change. We must learn our limits live with it!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This 0z run shows a low in the Gulf.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Did you get enough sleep?

Never enough. My lower back nerve doesn't like me sleeping.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Never mind I read the graph wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
848 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

.UPDATE...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND AN H5 LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
PUSH TO THE WEST. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE A
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COASTAL AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY. UPDATED POPS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATE SENT.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is this bogus too?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1002. ncstorm
Quoting 999. congaline:

Humor is not against the rules. Mean-spirited attacks are.


and calling people "Doubt Mongers" is a touching sentiment?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548
1001. ncstorm
12z short term ensembles

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548
1000. ncstorm
12z CMC long range ensembles

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548
Quoting 993. SunriseSteeda:
Why? Is humor against the rules? :)

Humor is not against the rules. Mean-spirited attacks are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 982. galvestonhurricane:


The CO2 level and increasing insolation 105,000 years ago should have caused the Earth to warm up, but it didn't.


"The only conclusion that can be reached from the observed lag between CO2 and temperatures in the past 400,000 years is that CO2 did not initiate the shifts towards interglacials. To understand current climate change, scientists have looked at many factors, such as volcanic activity and solar variability, and concluded that CO2 and other greenhouse gases are the most likely factor driving current climate change. This conclusion is not based on the analysis of past climate change, though this provides key insights into the way climate responds to different forcings and adds weight to the several lines of evidence that strongly support the role of greenhouse gases in recent warming" Couldn't have said it better myself. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 947. Chucktown:
Upper and lowercase at Tulsa NWS. I wonder if others will follow suit?

Link


Tallahassee NWS already does this and has been for quite sometime now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 993. SunriseSteeda:
Why? Is humor against the rules? :)
Sadly, it seem to be against the rules...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
Quoting 993. SunriseSteeda:
Why?
Because of the corru mods err I mean strict rules that are in place...They banned me earlier for a pic..

You might as well say humor is against the rules.

Me and Bluestorm posted at the same time.lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 985. Grothar:


I'll never give you the year. But I can tell you there were 3 in my graduating class.


ok, time to go find out what year U. of Miami was founded, and then subtract 2000 from that.

;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 991. washingtonian115:
I hoping this doesn't but don't be surprised to have this removed and then given a ban on top of that..
Why? Is humor against the rules? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Wunderground's Climate Change Position
Earth's climate is warming. This time, humans are mostly responsible, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.

Discuss...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 988. WxGeekVA:
I hoping this doesn't but don't be surprised to have this removed and then given a ban on top of that..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
new update this tropical wave still holding its rain with it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the comments on this blog are just mind blowing sometimes..LOL..some real gems
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548
Quoting 973. sar2401:

Population reduction occurs naturally as the world's population becomes more affluent, and children become an economic liability rather than an economic benefit. The population in North America and most of Europe has seen a net decrease (minus the increased birthrates from immigrant ppulations) not because of some government imposed program but because it made economic sense to have less kids. The best way we can reduce overall population increases is to increase world-wide prosperity. What concerns me most about imposed brith limiting programs is the idea that more people always equals bad. At some point, the child who will later find a cure for cancer, HIV, and maybe even AGW will be born, as long as we don't interfere with the normal wax and wane of populations.
There's no easy answer, is there?

Has Earth Reached Its Carrying Capacity? Link

Basically, if everyone on Earth lived like a middle-class American, consuming roughly 3.3 times the subsistence level of food and about 250 times the subsistence level of clean water, the Earth could only support about 2 billion people [source: McConeghy]. On the other hand, if everyone on the planet consumed only what he or she needed, 40 billion would be a feasible number [source: McConeghy]. As it is, the people living in developed countries are consuming so much that the other approximate 75 percent of the population is left with barely what they need to get by [source: McConeghy].

Here's the source referenced above: McConeghy, M. "Carrying Capacity." Dr McConeghy's Environmental Science. http://mmcconeghy.com/students/supcarryingcapacity .html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Waves train....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 953. drs2008:
r u a university of miami grad.,also?


I'll never give you the year. But I can tell you there were 3 in my graduating class.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This the latest from the NHC Facebook page regarding the "ghost" 97L fiasco:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Based on folks' comments above, it does sound like it would be helpful for us to indicate ahead of time when we're going to start one that we aren't at all serious about, like today. We can try to do that, but really, the best bet is to just read the Outlook (Emphasis mine)

Pretty amazing. Even after is was pointed out the 80 series numbers are SOP for testing purposes, and a pretty lame explanation why they didn't follow their own SOP's, the NHC thinks they can try to indicate ahead of time they intend to activate a non-meteorological invest. Apparently adding the word "TEST" to the initial text message sent with every invest activation is a pretty difficult task. No word on how the Navy site and WU didn't know this was test either, and put it up as a real invest, complete with models. Their answer to the issue is simply read the TWO when there's an invest activation because, presumably, it always shows up there almost immediately, even though we've had times when there was a real invest and nothing showed up on the NHC web site for more than an hour.

I don't know what level of management at the NHC is looking at this issue, but it certainly seems, from the FB responses, that the NHC is not going out of their way to make sure it doesn't happen again.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13230
Quoting 975. AussieStorm:
I came, I saw & now I can't leave.

Thanks, guys. Thanks.

LOL


Did you get enough sleep?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The CO2 level and increasing insolation 105,000 years ago should have caused the Earth to warm up, but it didn't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
981. bwi
Quoting 974. PedleyCA:


Don't think so. #2 is usually pointed at that black/yellow/white thing. Is that a buoy. If so, it is still where it was.



This one seems to have kersplooshed earlier today, based on its GPS orientation.

http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy8/webc am
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Wash..your avatar is going to give me nightmares..LOL..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548
978. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (T1308)
9:00 AM JST July 17 2013
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Cimaron (1002 hPa) located at 17.7N 122.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.3N 119.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 21.7N 117.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 23.1N 115.5E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 973. sar2401:

Population reduction occurs naturally as the world's population becomes more affluent, and children become an economic liability rather than an economic benefit. The population in North America and most of Europe has seen a net decrease (minus the increased birthrates from immigrant ppulations) not because of some government imposed program but because it made economic sense to have less kids. The best way we can reduce overall population increases is to increase world-wide prosperity. What concerns me most about imposed brith limiting programs is the idea that more people always equals bad. At some point, the child who will later find a cure for cancer, HIV, and maybe even AGW will be born, as long as we don't interfere with the normal wax and wane of populations.
You can't even understand how happy I am to see your response! I was under the impression that this blog was infested solely with socialist green "globalist" trendies who want to implement euthanasia "for the Earth." lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Launch of Apollo 11, 44 yrs ago

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
I came, I saw & now I can't leave.

Thanks, guys. Thanks.

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 896. Forsaken:
Did they move it, or is it floating now? dun dun dun =p


Don't think so. #2 is usually pointed at that black/yellow/white thing. Is that a buoy. If so, it is still where it was.

Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5685
Quoting SPLbeater:


I agree. Anyone stupid enough to ask for a population reduction is asking for murder. Abortion. And they need to be told, it aint a choice, its a LIFE!

Population reduction occurs naturally as the world's population becomes more affluent, and children become an economic liability rather than an economic benefit. The population in North America and most of Europe has seen a net decrease (minus the increased birthrates from immigrant ppulations) not because of some government imposed program but because it made economic sense to have less kids. The best way we can reduce overall population increases is to increase world-wide prosperity. What concerns me most about imposed brith limiting programs is the idea that more people always equals bad. At some point, the child who will later find a cure for cancer, HIV, and maybe even AGW will be born, as long as we don't interfere with the normal wax and wane of populations.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13230
Off topic , Top of 5 it's the AL 1-0 over the NL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the 12z ensembles didnt show anything for the long range storm but the operational had a storm..the 18z operational showed pretty much nothing nearing the US and the ensembles showed a storm..isnt the GFS grand?

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548
Quoting 964. washingtonian115:
Let's see what's happening on Doc's main blog..Mmmm hyped up convection,hyped up long range model and shear waiting for the wave near Africa,insulting people's intelligence..Yep..this place is surely hot and happening right now..and with that I'm out for the night..



LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1020 - 970

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
61 °F
Mostly Cloudy