Wet June on the East Coast Raises Hurricane Flood Risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2013

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June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Over three times as many record warm highs and lows occurred than record cold highs and lows during June. For the year-to-date period January - June, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 33% and 23% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, June extremes were about 10% below average, and the year-to-date period January - June 2013 has been 20% below average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet June on the East Coast raises hurricane flood risk
It was a very June for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th wettest June since 1895. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June. The very wet June has brought some of the highest soil moisture levels ever recorded for July along much of the coast from Florida to Maine, increasing the chances of extreme flooding should this region receive a hit from a tropical storm or hurricane during the coming peak months of hurricane season. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the East Coast under a wetter-than-average weather pattern into early August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 1.4' above average for this time of year, and 5' higher than two years ago. While this still puts the lake 1.2' below what is considered high water, Lake Okeechobee water levels will need to be watched as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June on record. Utah had its driest June on record, and Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming had a top-ten driest June. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for July 14, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire are near their highest soil moisture levels on record for this time of year, increasing the odds of extreme flooding in those states should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June. According to the July 9 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on June 21 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions during the remainder of summer. Approximately 1.2 million acres of land burned in the U.S. during June, which is above average. However, the year-to-date total acreage burned is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

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120. 7544
looking at the visable is there a small spin going on in the little blob in the bahammas at this hour ? tia
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Quoting Patrap:


Almost a blob
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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115810
Quoting 11. KeysieLife:
"June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895"

Or you could say that June 2013 was actually cooler than 14 other years, but that wouldn't spark madness...I understand.


That's like saying 1995's Hurricane Opal was the 853rd* weakest hurricane in the Atlantic basin since records began in 1851, when it actually was the 15th strongest ever recorded.

*rough math estimate.
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Quoting 112. Tazmanian:





this go too this link


Link


gulf


Link


Thaks Taz. I don't know why I can't get anything but working on it. This time of year I like to know what is going on.
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108 - Good post Scott.
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Quoting Grothar:


It was a college thing. We would climb them and spray paint our girlfriends names on them. Unfortunately at the time I was going with Annamaria Magdalene von Streilitz. I almost ran out of pole.

and paint
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Quoting 107. Msdrown:

Thanks you all the radar helps. Can you give me sat for GOM too.





this go too this link


Link


gulf


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115810
Quoting 104. Grothar:


It was a college thing. We would climb them and spray paint our girlfriends names on them. Unfortunately at the time I was going with Annamaria Magdalene von Streilitz. I almost ran out of pole.


Reminds me of a joke about a guy with a tattoo...nevermind.
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Quoting 16. Grothar:
From previous Blog.


We are getting very heavy rain and wind on the East coast of Florida.




Again, again, and again. NWS Miami seems to indicate this isn't going away for a while. I'm glad for the rain, but moderation is always good.

Baha stated this morning how moist the atmosphere is, and I agree. Considering that dry air has been an issue for development in the past two years, all the moisture is going to be like a primer for any system that thinks about getting started.
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Quoting 91. AussieStorm:
Grrrr can't sleep. voices in my head won't stop talking. LOL.

I sent you a link to the comedian Doug Stanhope about trying to sleep, it's a riot but a bit too vulgar to post to the blog.
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An important discussion that I think needs to be carried over from earlier...
Quoting 1044. trunkmonkey:
Here's policy problem, the NWS, along with the local Government (EMA) throughout the USA decided to come up with a new type of warning system, it was and is still this way in many jurisdictions, it's a tornado watch with a severe thunderstorm warning, the sirens are activated, this happened in Joplin, I called this a false tornado warning, then 30 minutes later the monster twister came through, and the rest is history. Many people were numbed by the sirens going off prior to killer storm.
Since that tragic day, many towns and cities went back to the actual tornado warning activation, thank goodness for them.
Outdoor warning sirens are just that... warnings for persons outdoors. Other threats besides just tornadoes can be very serious for persons caught outdoors. Straight line winds can cause debris to go airborne, and just like in a tornado, strike persons causing significant injury. Very large hail has a history of causing substantial injury and property damage, and in some cases, fatalities.

The NWS does not dictate how media or local jurisdictions convey warning messages. Local emergency managers or councils typically decide what threshold to use for activating warning systems such as reverse-911 and outdoor warning sirens. There are numerous jurisdictions around the country that have decided to activate outdoor warning sirens for high-end severe thunderstorms (no tornado warning).

A severe thunderstorm is dangerous to persons outdoors, and as such, it could easily be justified to use outdoor warning sirens to warn individuals who could be injured or killed - at the discretion of the local jurisdiction, not the NWS.
Quoting 1044. trunkmonkey:
Like I said, the goofy tornado watch, with a severe thunderstorm warning idea came straight from the NWS.
There was a book published afterwards called, when the sirens were silent, very good reading for us weather geeks!
The NWS does not make such policies for local counties/cities/jurisdictions. Do you have some evidence to back up your claim of the NWS in Springfield, or any NWS office, even suggesting this policy to a local jurisdiction?
Quoting 1077. Neapolitan:
No one is saying the warning systems in place in Joplin were perfect--nor are they yet. But a book about the event authored by the senior VP for AccuWeather in which he routinely criticizes the NWS while just as routinely making the case for privatization (especially his company) is probably not the most unbiased source of information.
The Joplin situation really needs some context. The tornado that actually hit Joplin, killed over 100 persons and caused a swath of EF4-5 damage throughout its path... that tornado literally touched down on the edge of town. If the tornado warning was based on the sighting of tornado touchdown, or if the warning was based upon such a strong radar signature that it was near obvious that a tornado was forming, there could have been almost no lead time for Joplin. The storm had been tornadic earlier, and was already tornado-warned. Although the storm had a history of possible tornadic activity, it had cycled down just prior to moving into the Joplin area. The large lead time for the city was due to tornado warnings still in effect from earlier. It was our advances in warning technology, and maybe even our tendency to overwarn, that gave Joplin almost all of it's lead time... 25 years ago and Joplin would have had very little warning at all.

That lead time that supposedly caused Joplin residents to be "numb" - it could have been ~5 minutes for eastern Joplin and 0 minutes for SW Joplin - people need to remember that.
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Thanks you all the radar helps. Can you give me sat for GOM too.
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Is getting closer and closer the moment the climbing of activity will start climatological speaking so be prepared for anything mother nature does.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15499
Quoting 100. AussieStorm:


Hahahahaha nice one.

I want to do this...



not thinking about this....

Loop embedded


I just heard a huge collective, "Awwwwwwwww!"
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Quoting 94. TampaCat5:

LOL. What were you doing on top of one of these to know this? I hope it was during maintenance.


It was a college thing. We would climb them and spray paint our girlfriends names on them. Unfortunately at the time I was going with Annamaria Magdalene von Streilitz. I almost ran out of pole.
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Quoting Msdrown:


Bay ST. Louos Ms. Right on the Gulf Coast. For some reason I can't get any radar or even local.


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Quoting 95. ILwthrfan:


This covers the western and eastern gulf, but only satellite will help for anything outside that.





Thanks for the radar, can you give me sat for the GOM too?
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Quoting 88. 69Viking:


I'm amazed at how loud the frogs can get. We have a combination of tree frogs and then a bigger frog that fills the ditches with tadpoles when we get a lot rain like we have this year. When it gets dark out that's when they really start to sing. Luckily their croaking doesn't keep any of us in the house from getting our sleep!


When I was a kid I had a pet snake I would feed tree frogs. My mom was very amiable considering. Occasionally Stripe (his name) would accidentally grab the frog rear end first. This was not good. You've heard frogs croak, but you do not want to hear them scream. Blood-curdling. Mom would make me take Stripe outside when that happened.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Nice shots, Aussie. Sorry you can't sleep. I posted a pic on your blog that might help...


Hahahahaha nice one.

I want to do this...



not thinking about this....

Loop embedded
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Quoting 90. ILwthrfan:


Where you at specifically?


Bay ST. Louos Ms. Right on the Gulf Coast. For some reason I can't get any radar or even local.
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Quoting 93. Grothar:


Well, a few of them has taken up residence inside our sliding glass doors. They are so loud one can hear them all over the house. And they just stare at us as if to say, "I dare you to slam the door on me"

Poor tree frogs. I saw one on my sliding glass door that couldn't keep its grip. It just kept sliding all the way down!
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Quoting 87. mikatnight:


I stopped wearing shorts on my walks with Dexter in the mornings and evenings, opting instead for long (light colored) pants. Mosquitoes are bad enough here by the coast, from what I understand, folks west of town have taken to loading their pockets with rocks and such to prevent being carried away by the inoculative creatures.


LOL.
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Quoting 91. AussieStorm:
Grrrr can't sleep. voices in my head won't stop talking. LOL.

2 Photo's I took today.

Approaching Thunderstorm


Double rainbow after it passed


Nice shots, Aussie. Sorry you can't sleep. I posted a pic on your blog that might help...
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Quoting 86. Msdrown:
#72post would someone answere please.


This covers the western and eastern gulf, but only satellite will help for anything outside that.



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Quoting 84. Grothar:


They could have turned them into Condos. They have great ocean view.

LOL. What were you doing on top of one of these to know this? I hope it was during maintenance.
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Quoting 88. 69Viking:


I'm amazed at how loud the frogs can get. We have a combination of tree frogs and then a bigger frog that fills the ditches with tadpoles when we get a lot rain like we have this year. When it gets dark out that's when they really start to sing. Luckily their croaking doesn't keep any of us in the house from getting our sleep!


Well, a few of them has taken up residence inside our sliding glass doors. They are so loud one can hear them all over the house. And they just stare at us as if to say, "I dare you to slam the door on me"
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Quoting 76. Mclem1:

Oh boy...October looks rough!

I posted this is the old blog but Ill throw it on this one in case you didnt see it.

PS, I always enjoy your pictures from your morning walks with Dexter! Seems like quite the inquisitive pooch!


I did miss your post, thanks! Just for laughs...
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Grrrr can't sleep. voices in my head won't stop talking. LOL.

2 Photo's I took today.

Approaching Thunderstorm


Double rainbow after it passed
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Quoting 86. Msdrown:
#72post would someone answere please.


Where you at specifically?
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Who washed thier car?
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Quoting 77. Grothar:


I have never seen mosquitoes like I have this year. There are frogs all over, too!


I'm amazed at how loud the frogs can get. We have a combination of tree frogs and then a bigger frog that fills the ditches with tadpoles when we get a lot rain like we have this year. When it gets dark out that's when they really start to sing. Luckily their croaking doesn't keep any of us in the house from getting our sleep!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3161
Quoting 77. Grothar:


I have never seen mosquitoes like I have this year. There are frogs all over, too!


I stopped wearing shorts on my walks with Dexter in the mornings and evenings, opting instead for long (light colored) pants. Mosquitoes are bad enough here by the coast, from what I understand, folks west of town have taken to loading their pockets with rocks and such to prevent being carried away by the inoculative creatures.
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#72post would someone answere please.
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Quoting 82. Grothar:


We didn't have heart. Those stacks have been there since I can remember.


Me too... Was always a great navigational aid back in the day!!!
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Quoting 81. TampaCat5:

Thanks, very neat. Interesting how they let the steam pipes topple. I guess there is not really much to them and they are just big solid concrete structures so what else are you going to do.


They could have turned them into Condos. They have great ocean view.
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83. 7544
Quoting 75. SFLWeatherman:
Look at all that rain coming for ME!!!!!:)


surprise theres no flood watches there yet ?
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Quoting 61. ChillinInTheKeys:
Gro, did you get a chance to go say goodbye to an old friend this morning?



Link


We didn't have heart. Those stacks have been there since I can remember.
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Quoting 61. ChillinInTheKeys:
Gro, did you get a chance to go say goodbye to an old friend this morning?



Link

Thanks, very neat. Interesting how they let the steam pipes topple. I guess there is not really much to them and they are just big solid concrete structures so what else are you going to do.
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Taz you're acting like JFV more than anyone. The blog was moving along fine and then you came along and started trouble. Grow up.

Meanwhile in NW Florida we some dry air moving in, some much needed dry air, just hope it sticks around for a while!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3161
Quoting 58. zampaz:

Lessons learned from living in the high wind regime of West Texas.
Although this isn't the best time of year for shaping trees, removing excess wind resistance by trimming foliage can help.
Remember to always undercut the bark on a branch first, so it doesn't peel, and work from outside in. Make the final cut flush to the trunk and seal the wound.
Don't even think about using a chainsaw without goggles, boots and gloves. Keep your bow saws and trimmers clean and sharp.


There is an easier way. Just hire someone to do it.
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From yesterday Year to date precipitation 41.65
Average 30.00
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Quoting 73. 69Viking:


The tree frogs in NW Florida have been croaking for 2 weeks straight, we have standing water everywhere! No doubt there's going to a big increase in the frog and mosquito population!


I have never seen mosquitoes like I have this year. There are frogs all over, too!
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Quoting 55. mikatnight:
What, is this old news? I figured this'd be a kick. Maybe nobody saw it, here's a repost.


Oh boy...October looks rough!

I posted this is the old blog but Ill throw it on this one in case you didnt see it.

PS, I always enjoy your pictures from your morning walks with Dexter! Seems like quite the inquisitive pooch!
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Look at all that rain coming for ME!!!!!:)
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Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. Not only a flood issue but a big "tree down" risk with these very moist soil conditions. Even a wet tropical storm, with a few high wind gusts of 40-50 mph, then the trees start toppling over

and you DO NOT want to be in the wrong place when a tree falls. With wet soil and TS winds I wouldn't want to be around trees at all.
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Quoting 48. Grothar:


Luckily we had overflows put in the pool years ago. It is very close to the house. The geckos are fine, but the frogs have been croaking for two days.


The tree frogs in NW Florida have been croaking for 2 weeks straight, we have standing water everywhere! No doubt there's going to a big increase in the frog and mosquito population!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3161
I have tried to access the various radars for GOM without success. We do have a little weather going on aroung here but I don't see why it should interupt. Can anyone outside the area tell/share with me some info. Do we have some kind of system coming my way. Appreciate it.
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Quoting 70. ChillinInTheKeys:


50 plus years old.

Does florida still have power?
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Quoting 63. 62901IL:

Why was it demolished?


50 plus years old.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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