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Wet June on the East Coast Raises Hurricane Flood Risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2013

June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Over three times as many record warm highs and lows occurred than record cold highs and lows during June. For the year-to-date period January - June, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 33% and 23% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, June extremes were about 10% below average, and the year-to-date period January - June 2013 has been 20% below average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet June on the East Coast raises hurricane flood risk
It was a very June for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th wettest June since 1895. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June. The very wet June has brought some of the highest soil moisture levels ever recorded for July along much of the coast from Florida to Maine, increasing the chances of extreme flooding should this region receive a hit from a tropical storm or hurricane during the coming peak months of hurricane season. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the East Coast under a wetter-than-average weather pattern into early August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 1.4' above average for this time of year, and 5' higher than two years ago. While this still puts the lake 1.2' below what is considered high water, Lake Okeechobee water levels will need to be watched as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June on record. Utah had its driest June on record, and Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming had a top-ten driest June. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for July 14, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire are near their highest soil moisture levels on record for this time of year, increasing the odds of extreme flooding in those states should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June. According to the July 9 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on June 21 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions during the remainder of summer. Approximately 1.2 million acres of land burned in the U.S. during June, which is above average. However, the year-to-date total acreage burned is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

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97L is a mess. No LLC, no banding, no real organization to the thunder storms, arc clouds, ....
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619. Ed22
Quoting 587. pottery:

at what height ?
I'm not banwagganized person its apart of mother nature so what if i give the tropical system a 30% chance of development.
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618. Kumo
Quoting 532. GatorWX:
I'd really like to hear people's opinions on what earth's tipping point may be like if you feel we are headed down that path.


I'm by no means an expert but I have done a little research on it. The climate tipping point is somewhat vague, but all indications point that it will happen when the Arctic is ice free in the Summer and all the ice shelves on Greenland and Antarctica have melted. These features help to slow down glacial outflow, so you can kind of imagine what will happen when they are completely gone.

Some point to our weak solar maximum as a sign that things are going to start cooling, but I think that our increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will ensure that we keep warming. My reasoning is that the Maunder Minimum (little ice age coinciding with long period of low sunspot activity) happened before the industrial age when PPM of CO2 were at normal levels.
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610. Patrap 4:32 PM EDT on July 16, 2013

Lol.........It was a "test"........ :)

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past,

Like Us................
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Quoting 600. Grothar:


That mess in the Gulf is not a blob. :)



Possibly a blip a splat or a smidge but not yet a blob. A blob not too expensive :)
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NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
225,671 likes · 17,768 talking about this
Government Organisation


We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137219
Quoting 605. Neapolitan:
Well, now, that was pretty quick:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al972013.ren


And at the same time the tropical depression on this blog deepens, lol. HH should get out!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 81 Comments: 9402
Quoting 600. Grothar:


That mess in the Gulf is not a blob. :)

its a non gro blob
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Wow... shortest invest ever?

EDIT: Just saw the comment from NHC. It was a test.
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Quoting Grothar:



Heavy wind and rain this morning, but just muggy this afternoon. How was it the other night??

Good fun, good time.
Taking the day off today, recharging the batteries.
Back to Reality tomorrow.
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NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137219
Quoting 595. 62901IL:
Per NHC
We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.


Where'd you see that? Link?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 109 Comments: 11739
Quoting 603. Gearsts:
They know something that we don't!


I think is the first time that the San Juan NWS mentions a wave that is still in Ehiopia.
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Getting a easterly flow pretty good now according to radar, that raises the stakes for Ekman transport along the TX coast, tides could come up if winds increase enough, and that wave over Florida, things might start getting interesting in the GOM.

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Quoting 582. pottery:

Probably because your's the only one that listens when you talk....

How are you Gro?
It looks rather wet....
Some sweet gentle showers here today, 4mm in the gauge.



Heavy wind and rain this morning, but just muggy this afternoon. How was it the other night??
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Well, now, that was pretty quick; the testing must be complete:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al972013.ren

A two-hour, non-meteorological invest. Sweet...
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Quoting Gearsts:
They know something that we don't!

See post 595....
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Quoting 579. SLU:


As an official weather forecasting agency relied upon by millions of persons including the media, I think it's unwise to start mentioning the development of a specific tropical cyclone depicted by only one computer model 12 days in advance. It's ok to mention that the trend could be for a more active end to the month but mentioning the development of a specific storm 2 weeks away is very unwise as we saw with the GFS last week when it bust on the wave near 53W.

This has serious implications for the Caribbean which is heavily reliant on tourism. Potential visitors can be chased away or dissuaded from visiting if they hear of a potential "ghost" storm expected to hit on the 29th.

Plus as a forecasting agency you leave the door wide open to losing all credibility should nothing happen.
They know something that we don't!
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Quoting 62901IL:
Per NHC
We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.


LOL, well that makes sense ! NOT ! Surely they should have issued that statement along with the tag ????

I wondered why they tagged it. Now I know.
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Quoting 593. JustDucky251:


Some years back, as I recall, a regatta in Quincy Bay (just south of Boston) had over 100 boats capsized by a squall line. I think 3 or 4 sailors drowned.

My father and I had a squall line go over us, but as a meteorologist, he recognized the danger and had us furl our sails and toss out a sea anchor. The rest of the fleet was watching us thru binoculars and did the same. We lost no one and just had one scare as a boat got really close to some rocks.

Wind whistling thru the rigging at that velocity has a chilling sound.

Wow, that's a very chilling story. Glad everyone came away with their lives.
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Quoting 588. redwagon:


You.Are.Fired.

:)


That mess in the Gulf is not a blob. :)

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Quoting 483. Patrap:
Dry air is over Central Fla, if ya bother to look at the WV.







Where is the Dry Air Patrap. It's been raining off and on all day in Orlando.

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Quoting 579. SLU:


As an official weather forecasting agency relied upon by millions of persons including the media, I think it's unwise to start mentioning the development of a specific tropical cyclone depicted by only one computer model 12 days in advance. It's ok to mention that the trend could be for a more active end to the month but mentioning the development of a specific storm 2 weeks away is very unwise as we saw with the GFS last week when it bust on the wave near 53W.

This has serious implications for the Caribbean which is heavily reliant on tourism. Potential visitors can be chased away or dissuaded from visiting if they hear of a potential "ghost" storm expected to hit on the 29th.

Plus as a forecasting agency you leave the door wide open to losing all credibility should nothing happen.

No you don't. The NWS office never forecast what the GFS was predicting to occur, they just made an observation. You can't go wrong with that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
If looks as if most of the models want to move 97L into South Texas.
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Quoting 590. nrtiwlnvragn:


The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

Invest


invest

an area to be investigated for poss dev and determine if additional information or action may be needed
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Per NHC
We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.
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594. wxmod
North Pole webcam today.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 578. Klolly23:

Largo, I work at a marina in downtown Sarasota. Just had a boater come back in from that squall that moved through. He said a squadron of 10-15 sailboats about 13-16 feet each had capsized in new pass, in sarasota Bay. Boy was the wind howling. Be safe up there and everyone else.


Some years back, as I recall, a regatta in Quincy Bay (just south of Boston) had over 100 boats capsized by a squall line. I think 3 or 4 sailors drowned.

My father and I had a squall line go over us, but as a meteorologist, he recognized the danger and had us furl our sails and toss out a sea anchor. The rest of the fleet was watching us thru binoculars and did the same. We lost no one and just had one scare as a boat got really close to some rocks.

Wind whistling thru the rigging at that velocity has a chilling sound.
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ScottLincoln, I would like to apologies to NWS for making false statements regarding Joplin tornado. I learn a lesson to gather up all of facts before stating a comment.
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Quoting 578. Klolly23:

Largo, I work at a marina in downtown Sarasota. Just had a boater come back in from that squall that moved through. He said a squadron of 10-15 sailboats about 13-16 feet each had capsized in new pass, in sarasota Bay. Boy was the wind howling. Be safe up there and everyone else.


This wave is heading Gulf bound westward
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Quoting 572. Doppler22:
I just got home from swimming and I have two questions...
1. When did we get Invest 97L?
2. Why is it an invest if the NHC doesn't even have a yellow crayon around it?


The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

Invest
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Quoting 564. mitthbevnuruodo:


That's a creepy looking image to say the least.

So, makes me wonder, what happens when cyclones spin up there? Would the rains be particularly radioactive too?! And I thought acid rain was a scary thought


Although on the site, Pat was quoting, the subtitle of that image is: "Radiation spreads from Fukushima. by [NOAA]", I'm doubting it. In fact it is a graph which showed the predicted spreading of the tsunami back then.
Look here f.e. Edit: If you google that pic, you'll find a lot of unreliable sites which misuse this graph to show catastrophic nuclear radiation spreading.
Original NOAA site

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 81 Comments: 9402
Quoting 574. Grothar:
I say it is. Well, I say it isn't. The MJO is going positive in case you didn't know. I say it is still negative. Like you would know that. In any case it has a good environment. Good environment????with shear at 150 kts?? I don't know what model you're looking at.

(not to worry, I just talk to myself now and then)




You.Are.Fired.

:)
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Quoting Ed22:
97L is building a strong spin and rotation of showers and thunderstorms, if it continues to do that it could be a cyclone. This tropical system is underneath light to moderate windshear its about 5 to 15 mph so my odd is about 30% chances of development in the next 24 to 48 hours. Things in the GOM is changing where the tropical system is right now. What your comments weather bloggers.

at what height ?
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Quoting 572. Doppler22:
I just got home from swimming and I have two questions...
1. When did we get Invest 97L?
2. Why is it an invest if the NHC doesn't even have a yellow crayon around it?


I was wondering the same thing. Maybe their 5pm update will include it?
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585. Ed22
97L is building a strong spin and rotation of showers and thunderstorms, if it continues to do that it could be a cyclone. This tropical system is underneath light to moderate windshear its about 5 to 15 mph so my odd is about 30% chances of development in the next 24 to 48 hours. Things in the GOM is changing where the tropical system is right now. What your comments weather bloggers.
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583. wxmod
North Pole

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting Grothar:
I say it is. Well, I say it isn't. The MJO is going positive in case you didn't know. I say it is still negative. Like you would know that. In any case it has a good environment. Good environment????with shear at 150 kts?? I don't know what model you're looking at.

(not to worry, I just talk to myself now and then)



Probably because your's the only one that listens when you talk....

How are you Gro?
It looks rather wet....
Some sweet gentle showers here today, 4mm in the gauge.
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Quoting 569. Bluestorm5:


Can't really argue against all of that. You clearly got facts to back it up. Sorry for bringing it up.

I'm not necessarily trying to make you sorry for bringing it up. This is actually a conversation that needs to occur to help guide our future in regards to warnings. My main contention was with some information - presented as facts - that was just not correct. If this was the way it was presented in Mike Smith's book, then he has published incorrect information that has changed the narrative of what actually happened.

If the public really thinks that we are over-warning and it is causing people not to act during higher-end events, then we need to have that conversation. Our science is where it is, that won't magically change, but perhaps faced with information like I mentioned, people may choose a lower FAR at the cost of a lower POD.

One of the NWS's responses to the Joplin tornado was the new warning statements. They tend to be stronger, more concise, and frankly, more scary-sounding. They have not been without controversy. It almost makes it seem like the response to Joplin was to make all of our warnings sounds "worse" to get people to take action sooner. One might argue that this will cause a temporary increase in action toward tornado warnings, but with a continued high FAR, people will fall right back into a complacent mentality that may even be worse than before. At such a point, it may take progressively stronger wording to get media and the public to take action.
I'm not a social scientist, I have my personal opinions on this, but I don't know the right answer. This is why we need to have this discussion. With the correct information, however. :)
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Quoting 577. Grothar:
GFS 384 hours.


I miss Allan's models...
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579. SLU
Quoting 521. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Scaring the public?

All they said is that the GFS depicted a wave moving into the region as a tropical cyclone towards the end of the period. Not exactly frightening wording.


As an official weather forecasting agency relied upon by millions of persons including the media, I think it's unwise to start mentioning the development of a specific tropical cyclone depicted by only one computer model 12 days in advance. It's ok to mention that the trend could be for a more active end to the month but mentioning the development of a specific storm 2 weeks away is very unwise as we saw with the GFS last week when it bust on the wave near 53W.

This has serious implications for the Caribbean which is heavily reliant on tourism. Potential visitors can be chased away or dissuaded from visiting if they hear of a potential "ghost" storm expected to hit on the 29th.

Plus as a forecasting agency you leave the door wide open to losing all credibility should nothing happen.
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Quoting 530. LargoFl:
Really Booming by Me now..was sunny all day..

Largo, I work at a marina in downtown Sarasota. Just had a boater come back in from that squall that moved through. He said a squadron of 10-15 sailboats about 13-16 feet each had capsized in new pass, in sarasota Bay. Boy was the wind howling. Be safe up there and everyone else.
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GFS 384 hours.


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I like when the San Juan mets talk about the potential threats...

IN THE VERY LONG RANGE A
WAVE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA NEXT MONDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A DEPRESSION IN THE GFS AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE MONTH.


XD XD XD
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Quoting 572. Doppler22:
I just got home from swimming and I have two questions...
1. When did we get Invest 97L?
2. Why is it an invest if the NHC doesn't even have a yellow crayon around it?


Apparently they lost their crayon.
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I say it is. Well, I say it isn't. The MJO is going positive in case you didn't know. I say it is still negative. Like you would know that. In any case it has a good environment. Good environment????with shear at 150 kts?? I don't know what model you're looking at.

(not to worry, I just talk to myself now and then)


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Quoting 556. 69Viking:


All those storms in Texas are not normal!


Agreed. My rain gauge has not seen this much precip in ages. Two tenths of an inch in the last 25 mins. Not too shabby. It has doubled as a wonderful bird perch until recently, however :)
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I just got home from swimming and I have two questions...
1. When did we get Invest 97L?
2. Why is it an invest if the NHC doesn't even have a yellow crayon around it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
crap. sorry about it being so blurry!

Mounting created Bloggif
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8516
Quoting 566. Tropicsweatherpr:


Doesn't show what GFS has developing the CV wave.
A little surprising and the GFS is also showing development in the EPAC:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9869

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